Governors find their moment and peril – POLITICO – POLITICO

It is this intersection between the national capital and 50 state capitals that will be a principal theme for POLITICOs The Fifty, a new series that examines the ways in which governors, mayors and other political figures are shaping the nations future. The pandemic, more than any crisis in recent memory, has an intimate edge. It affects not just some citizens, but virtually every citizen, in an immediate and tangible way at work and home. As state and local governments are much closer to the stuff of daily life and have more direct responsibility for public health so too will they be the more relevant and vibrant arenas for creating post-pandemic America.

In interviews in recent days, several governors told POLITICO they have found their new circumstances and the re-ordering of their own personal and political priorities to be all-consuming.

Its tremendously frustrating in terms of my time and my focus, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in an interview. I didnt run for governor thinking I was going to spend every day now for six months focused on the most basic thing of all, which is keeping people alive.

A global pandemic was not on the radar when I ran for governor, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told POLITICO. For Whitmer, the coronavirus, the recession that ensued, the national trauma over racial disparities after the George Floyd killing, and devastating floods in her state have in some way melded into a singular, extreme moment: In ordinary times, one of these crises would consume all your energy. And yet, right now, we have to be able to manage all of these crises and do the day-to-day work of state government. We have an ambitious agenda that we still plan to pursue, but certainly this has taken all of our focus getting through these four crises that have simultaneously occurred.

I would say it is, without question, the hardest thing Ive ever done, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a former top executive at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview. Theres no question about it. When I was in the private sector, I was typically the person who went in to clean things up. I was a U.S. ambassador to Germany for things like Wikileaks and the financial crisis of 2008, 2009 and beyond. Those werent easy, but this is at another level.

Murphy offers a window into one of the most salient features of state governance in 2020: Hes got more political popularity than ever, but limited flexibility on policy.

The liberal first-term Democrat had spent the first two years feuding with other factions of his party and had an approval rating stuck in the 40s. Support shot up above 70 percent after the coronavirus arrived in the spring, his highest ever, and he has kept a pandemic approval in the high 60s. The governor has inoculated himself politically to the point where even his opponents have struggled to capitalize on real problems in his administrations coronavirus response. A semi-veiled threat of a primary challenge, made a year ago by the most influential power broker in the state, is now laughed off.

But the test of whether Murphy can keep his popularity high will come over the next few months as the state Legislature and governor work on a budget thats due Sept. 30. New Jersey has already agreed to borrow billions of dollars to temporarily close the states budget gap.

Murphy has already asked cabinet members to draw up plans for 15 percent cuts in their departments and school aid which directly affects property taxes and makes up a third of the state budget has faced major cuts. Further cuts to school aid could force teacher layoffs that would anger the New Jersey Education Association, the largest public union in the state and Murphys biggest political ally.

I got elected, in part, to get the economy both growing and getting fair again, but also to fix the bad behavior in the state government, he said. We have made enormous progress on both the stronger, the fairer, the fixing part of it. And a lot of that has to be put on ice. Theres just no question about it.

Mike DuHaime, a Republican consultant who advised Murphys controversy-pocked predecessor, Chris Christie, acknowledged that the Democrats recent success in bringing infection rates down has given him political capital. Still, he added, Political capital is only worth something if you spend it. Hes going to likely have to spend it on this budget cycle.

Thats arguably a better problem than one faced by Murphys Republican counterpart in Florida. In the first months of the pandemic, Gov. Ron DeSantis lashed out at the media and public health experts who questioned relatively lax shutdown and social distancing policies. That gamble backfired as infections rose and the state is currently one of the nations most afflicted. DeSantiss once-enviable job approval ratings have dipped at least 17 points since last year, now with a majority of voters disliking his performance.

This means hell be confronting a budget crisis without much political leverage in reserve.

In the last fiscal year, the state has missed revenue estimates by $1.9 billion, a drop driven nearly exclusively by coronavirus-related shutdowns.

Pritzker took a different path in Illinois. He issued a stay-home order long before the states outbreak reached the level it had when most other states locked down. He took the lead in explaining data-backed decisions during his daily briefings and was one of the first leaders to personally don a mask in April.

Still, few savvy politicians would take the hand Pritzkers been dealt. Illinois has the worst credit rating in the nation at a moment when it urgently needs to borrow money. He signed a budget with a $6 billion gap between revenue and expenses that was filled with loans for now as the state desperately pleads for federal relief. Pritzker says layoffs are coming without significant help.

If there is one lesson about pandemic politics as they play out in the states, it is that governors should be wary about boasting of their results infection rates and poll ratings are both fluid.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican whose state was among those that seemed to avoid the worst of the coronavirus in the spring only to be crushed by it when it arrived in the sunbelt in June, has gone from 57 percent of voters approving of his pandemic response in early May to just 30 percent in July. Thats less support than the 38 percent in the state who approve of Trumps pandemic handling, making Ducey one of only four governors who has worse marks in emergency management than the president. Ducey, like others facing similar circumstances, can blame in part a speedy reopening strategy, according to a multi-university consortium that is studying state responses to the pandemic. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, who got favorable publicity for an aggressive response early, is now getting roughed up as cases rise but has so far held on to a high approval.

As states become a focal point of pandemic policy, governors could again rise to a focal point of national policy. Over 32 years between the elections of 1976 and 2008, the White House was occupied all but four years by someone who arrived at the presidency by way of a governorship.

Since then, however, the presidency has been occupied by two very different leaders who vaulted to power for a similar reason: their ability to translate celebrity personas into electoral results. Although Barack Obama served in the state legislature in Illinois, neither he nor Donald Trump ever proved executive credentials by running a state. Might the current moment put a new premium on these credentials?

On Wednesday, Cuomo will take over from Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as head of the National Governors Association. (Hogan, a Republican, has been nearly as critical of Trumps pandemic performance as Cuomo.) Cuomo has said hes not running for president or angling for a federal position.

But he has seen both his New York and national profile rise.

In February, slogging through a third term, he had had a favorability rating of 44 percent. By the end of March, as he clawed his way through the pandemic engulfing the state, his favorability had jumped to 71 percent, its highest level in seven years, boosted by nods from legions of voters even Republicans who had soured on the third-term Democrat long ago. A staggering 87 percent of all voters approved of his handling of the pandemic.

Even if Cuomo is sincere about not intending to run, hes young enough by todays standards to eye the next cycle, and it seems virtually certain that others including Newsom, Hogan and DeSantis (if his fortunes improve) will be vying for the national stage, and hoping to trumpet reputations as people who solve problems rather than argue about them.

Governors are almost forced to behave more responsibly, said William Galston, who runs the Brookings Institutions Governance Studies Program in Washington. Its much harder for governors. Even if their states are deep red or deep blue, governors have to be doers, not just talkers. Theyre held responsible for results in a very direct way.

That is true even when those results are only partly within a governors control. Rarely has the partnership between Washington and 50 state counterparts been more consequential.

In a sense, it's the federal government's responsibility to deal with a big shock to the system like this, but the average citizen isn't going to know, said David Lazer, a political scientist and computer scientist at Northeastern University, who is involved with the multi-university consortium studying the states. There is this narrative, which Cuomo has in some ways has encouraged, which is, the buck stops with me. Sometimes the buck doesn't really stop with him and he'll still get the blame or the credit.

This article is part of The Fifty, a new POLITICO series that looks at how state and local leaders are responding to current national challenges, from the pandemic to the economic crisis to the reckoning with race. More coverage of these issues here.

John Harris, Matt Friedman, Matt Dixon and Jeremy B. White contributed to this report.

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Governors find their moment and peril - POLITICO - POLITICO