Daniel Yergin: How division and unrest in the U.S. affect global power shifts – The Dallas Morning News

Daniel Yergin is an energy expert, and that means hes also an expert on global geopolitical relations. His first book, The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power, in 1990 told the saga of world history through the lens of oil. The continual changes in the industry and power politics have prompted him to write several more installments of the story.

This month, the latest in Yergins oil-and-power series was published, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations, this time exploring how the massive increase in oil production in the U.S. has redrawn the global power map. No longer is OPEC the power center, now its the Big Three producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with China a key energy consumer.

How might the results of the presidential election affect the geopolitical map that you draw in the book?

I think a lot of things are set in place already. I mean, there is bipartisan consensus about China in Washington. So, theres not a great deal of room to move on that. On Russia, theres pretty bipartisan opposition. I think the big change would be actually on climate, where a Biden administration, one of its very first things would be to reengage with the Paris agreement.

We need to find a new stability in the relationship with China because these two countries are much more connected, interconnected, than people realize, but right now, trade and economics, which used to be stabilizing the balanced relationship is now very controversial.

People dont realize that China now has become one of the biggest customers for us oil and gas. And of course, energy is a very sensitive issue for the Chinese.

Ive been interested to observe Joe Bidens energy policy. He seems to have moved away from the Green New Deal in some key ways. Hes not calling for the U.S. to halt using fossil fuels. And he does support fracking and natural gas. Do you think this is a more realistic approach to the world or are we just forestalling the inevitable?

In Pittsburgh, he went out of his way to say, Im not going to ban fracking. Im not sure that a president can ban fracking in any event. But he does have a $2 trillion climate program. I also think he doesnt want to be a president who ends up presiding over a really rapid growth in U.S. oil imports. An abandon-fracking policy is really an import-more-oil policy.

What role does President Donald Trumps more friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin play in the map that you drew?

The president has been very careful not to criticize Putin, and Putin hasnt criticized him. But if you look overall, the U.S. has pursued a pretty tough policy on Russia. We put more sanctions on Russia, and then we put more sanctions on Russia. And the geopolitical reality is that Russia and China are coming more and more together.

I think a new president would have to ask: Do we need something in our policy beyond sanctions? Russias economy may be smaller than Italys, but it is the other major nuclear power. It has a huge arsenal and we cant forget the nuclear side of the relationship.

What are you thinking of beyond sanctions?

Where are areas where we can work with Russia? One of the points I make in the book is, it really started when Edward Snowden went to Moscow. And that was really the beginning of the breakdown.

We are headed into a kind of new cold war with Russia and certainly the risk of a different kind of cold war with China. Are there areas where common interests can be found to work with Russia? But then something happens like the poisoning of [opposition politician Alexei] Navalny, that disrupts, that just throws a spanner. I think a lot will be determined by what the conclusions are about Russian engagement in the 2020 presidential election. I think that could have a lot of consequences that arent good.

How are people outside the U.S. thinking about the division and protests here?

A couple of things I hear from people in other parts of the world, one is concern about political cohesion and division in the United States, which would make us a less reliable, less stable player in the world. They still look for a stabilizer and a leader, and they worry about a U.S. turned so much inward that it loses contact with that wider role in an unruly global system.

I think a second thing that I hear from other countries is concern about where the U.S.-China split is going to go, and whether theyll have to choose sides in some fashion. And they cant. How do they choose sides?

I did a dialogue actually with a president of one Latin American country. And he said our relationship with the United States is very strong, but Chinas a very big market for us. How do we navigate this?

How does new agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates fit into the geopolitical map?

Its a very explicit representation of the new map because in the book I wrote about the significance of the split between the Arab Gulf countries and Iran and how serious that is. And the UAE is also concerned about future U.S. engagement in the region, particularly when the U.S. doesnt import much oil. Its looking to secure its future.

Theres an economic element to the relationship with Israel, to connect with a dynamic regional economy, entrepreneurial economy, and at the same time, its a very significant strategic collaboration dealing with what is the common enemy, which is Iran. And also, both are quite concerned about the role of Turkey, because really its Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran that are competing for a leading role in in the region.

And I think that the drone attack last summer on the big Saudi oil facility raised the stakes in terms of vulnerability and the need for new technologies for security. And I think thats certainly one element of this new relationship between the UAE and Israel.

A question for the last couple of years you heard is, will the U.S. long-term be as interested in the region, if it really doesnt import much oil from the region? Because thats been so fundamental since the 1970s. And so I think its also saying, well, we cant just count on the relationship with the United States.

What happens to us oil production over the next year or so?

February of 2020 was when U.S. oil production reached its highest level ever, 13 million barrels a day. This could not have been imagined a decade ago. I think by the end of this year, the U.S. will probably be in the 10 million to 10.5 million barrel a day range. And we will probably be in that range, maybe 11 million bpd, until this time next year, assuming theres a vaccine and you start to see recovery. Youll see people conserving cash and doing as little as possible starting to spend again, because to maintain those production levels, you have to invest. But so much depends upon the courses of virus and a vaccine.

This Q&A was conducted, edited and condensed by Dallas Morning News editorial board member and commentary editor Elizabeth Souder.

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Daniel Yergin: How division and unrest in the U.S. affect global power shifts - The Dallas Morning News