Jun 11th 2020
IT WILL BE as if the world had created a second China, made not of billions of people and millions of factories, but of algorithms and humming computers. PwC, a professional-services firm, predicts that artificial intelligence (AI) will add $16trn to the global economy by 2030. The total of all activityfrom banks and biotech to shops and constructionin the worlds second-largest economy was just $13trn in 2018.
PwCs claim is no outlier. Rival prognosticators at McKinsey put the figure at $13trn. Others go for qualitative drama, rather than quantitative. Sundar Pichai, Googles boss, has described developments in AI as more profound than fire or electricity. Other forecasts see similarly large changes, but less happy ones. Clever computers capable of doing the jobs of radiologists, lorry drivers or warehouse workers might cause a wave of unemployment.
Yet lately doubts have been creeping in about whether todays AI technology is really as world-changing as it seems. It is running up against limits of one kind or another, and has failed to deliver on some of its proponents more grandiose promises.
There is no question that AIor, to be precise, machine learning, one of its sub-fieldshas made much progress. Computers have become dramatically better at many things they previously struggled with. The excitement began to build in academia in the early 2010s, when new machine-learning techniques led to rapid improvements in tasks such as recognising pictures and manipulating language. From there it spread to business, starting with the internet giants. With vast computing resources and oceans of data, they were well placed to adopt the technology. Modern AI techniques now power search engines and voice assistants, suggest email replies, power the facial-recognition systems that unlock smartphones and police national borders, and underpin the algorithms that try to identify unwelcome posts on social media.
Perhaps the highest-profile display of the technologys potential came in 2016, when a system built by DeepMind, a London-based AI firm owned by Alphabet, Googles corporate parent, beat one of the worlds best players at Go, an ancient Asian board game. The match was watched by tens of millions; the breakthrough came years, even decades, earlier than AI gurus had expected.
As Mr Pichais comparison with electricity and fire suggests, machine learning is a general-purpose technologyone capable of affecting entire economies. It excels at recognising patterns in data, and that is useful everywhere. Ornithologists use it to classify birdsong; astronomers to hunt for planets in glimmers of starlight; banks to assess credit risk and prevent fraud. In the Netherlands, the authorities use it to monitor social-welfare payments. In China AI-powered facial recognition lets customers buy groceriesand helps run the repressive mass-surveillance system the country has built in Xinjiang, a Muslim-majority region.
AIs heralds say further transformations are still to come, for better and for worse. In 2016 Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist who has made fundamental contributions to modern AI, remarked that its quite obvious that we should stop training radiologists, on the grounds that computers will soon be able to do everything they do, only cheaper and faster. Developers of self-driving cars, meanwhile, predict that robotaxis will revolutionise transport. Eric Schmidt, a former chairman of Google (and a former board member of The Economists parent company) hopes that AI could accelerate research, helping human scientists keep up with a deluge of papers and data.
In January a group of researchers published a paper in Cell describing an AI system that had predicted antibacterial function from molecular structure. Of 100 candidate molecules selected by the system for further analysis, one proved to be a potent new antibiotic. The covid-19 pandemic has thrust such medical applications firmly into the spotlight. An AI firm called BlueDot claims it spotted signs of a novel virus in reports from Chinese hospitals as early as December. Researchers have been scrambling to try to apply AI to everything from drug discovery to interpreting medical scans and predicting how the virus might evolve.
This is not the first wave of AI-related excitement (see timeline in next article). The field began in the mid-1950s when researchers hoped that building human-level intelligence would take a few yearsa couple of decades at most. That early optimism had fizzled by the 1970s. A second wave began in the 1980s. Once again the fields grandest promises went unmet. As reality replaced the hype, the booms gave way to painful busts known as AI winters. Research funding dried up, and the fields reputation suffered.
Many of the grandest claims made about AI have once again failed to become reality
Modern AI technology has been far more successful. Billions of people use it every day, mostly without noticing, inside their smartphones and internet services. Yet despite this success, the fact remains that many of the grandest claims made about AI have once again failed to become reality, and confidence is wavering as researchers start to wonder whether the technology has hit a wall. Self-driving cars have become more capable, but remain perpetually on the cusp of being safe enough to deploy on everyday streets. Efforts to incorporate AI into medical diagnosis are, similarly, taking longer than expected: despite Dr Hintons prediction, there remains a global shortage of human radiologists.
Surveying the field of medical AI in 2019, Eric Topol, a cardiologist and AI enthusiast, wrote that the state of AI hype has far exceeded the state of AI science, especially when it pertains to validation and readiness for implementation in patient care. Despite a plethora of ideas, covid-19 is mostly being fought with old weapons that are already to hand. Contacttracing has been done with shoe leather and telephone calls. Clinical trials focus on existing drugs. Plastic screens and paint on the pavement enforce low-tech distancing advice.
The same consultants who predict that AI will have a world-altering impact also report that real managers in real companies are finding AI hard to implement, and that enthusiasm for it is cooling. Svetlana Sicular of Gartner, a research firm, says that 2020 could be the year AI falls onto the downslope of her firms well-publicised hype cycle. Investors are beginning to wake up to bandwagon-jumping: a survey of European AI startups by MMC, a venture-capital fund, found that 40% did not seem to be using any AI at all. I think theres definitely a strong element of investor marketing, says one analyst delicately.
This Technology Quarterly will investigate why enthusiasm is stalling. It will argue that although modern AI techniques are powerful, they are also limited, and they can be troublesome and difficult to deploy. Those hoping to make use of AIs potential must confront two sets of problems.
The first is practical. The machine-learning revolution has been built on three things: improved algorithms, more powerful computers on which to run them, andthanks to the gradual digitisation of societymore data from which they can learn. Yet data are not always readily available. It is hard to use AI to monitor covid-19 transmission without a comprehensive database of everyones movements, for instance. Even when data do exist, they can contain hidden assumptions that can trip the unwary. The newest AI systems demand for computing power can be expensive. Large organisations always take time to integrate new technologies: think of electricity in the 20th century or the cloud in the 21st. None of this necessarily reduces AIs potential, but it has the effect of slowing its adoption.
The second set of problems runs deeper, and concerns the algorithms themselves. Machine learning uses thousands or millions of examples to train a software model (the structure of which is loosely based on the neural architecture of the brain). The resulting systems can do some tasks, such as recognising images or speech, far more reliably than those programmed the traditional way with hand-crafted rules, but they are not intelligent in the way that most people understand the term. They are powerful pattern-recognition tools, but lack many cognitive abilities that biological brains take for granted. They struggle with reasoning, generalising from the rules they discover, and with the general-purpose savoir faire that researchers, for want of a more precise description, dub common sense. The result is an artificial idiot savant that can excel at well-bounded tasks, but can get things very wrong if faced with unexpected input.
Without another breakthrough, these drawbacks put fundamental limits on what AI can and cannot do. Self-driving cars, which must navigate an ever-changing world, are already delayed, and may never arrive at all. Systems that deal with language, like chatbots and personal assistants, are built on statistical approaches that generate a shallow appearance of understanding, without the reality. That will limit how useful they can become. Existential worries about clever computers making radiologists or lorry drivers obsoletelet alone, as some doom-mongers suggest, posing a threat to humanitys survivalseem overblown. Predictions of a Chinese-economy-worth of extra GDP look implausible.
Todays AI summer is different from previous ones. It is brighter and warmer, because the technology has been so widely deployed. Another full-blown winter is unlikely. But an autumnal breeze is picking up.
This article appeared in the Technology Quarterly section of the print edition under the headline "Reality check"
Follow this link:
An understanding of AIs limitations is starting to sink in - The Economist
- Sleepwalkers Podcast: What Happens When Machines Find Their Creative Muse - WIRED [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence Will Facilitate Growth of Innovative Kinds of VR and AR Platforms - AiThority [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Manufacturing Leaders' Summit: Realising the promise of Artificial Intelligence - Manufacturer.com [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- How Augmented Reality and Artificial Intelligence Are Helping Entrepreneurs Create a Better Customer Experience - Entrepreneur [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Global Director of Tech Exploration Discusses Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning at Anheuser-Busch InBev - Seton Hall University News &... [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- 2019 Artificial Intelligence in Precision Health - Dedication to Discuss & Analyze AI Products Related to Precision Healthcare Already Available -... [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- SC Proposes Introduction Of Artificial Intelligence In Justice Delivery System - Inc42 Media [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence will affect Salt Lake, Ogden more than most areas in the nation, study shows - KSL.com [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- The Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks of 2019 -- and The Top AI Stock for 2020 - The Motley Fool [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- It Pays To Break Artificial Intelligence Out Of The Lab, Study Confirms - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence in FX 'may be hype' - FX Week [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- The Surprising Way Artificial Intelligence Is Transforming Transportation - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Need a New Topic for Thanksgiving Dinner? How to Explain Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Anyone...and Make it Fun! - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- The Artificial Intelligence Industry and Global Challenges - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence in 2020: The Architecture and the Infrastructure - Gigaom [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2019]
- AI IN BANKING: Artificial intelligence could be a near $450 billion opportunity for banks - here are the strat - Business Insider India [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2019]
- Seattle Seahawks Select Amazon In Utilizing Artificial Intelligence To Help Make Smarter Decisions On The Field - Forbes [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2019]
- Fujifilm Showcases Artificial Intelligence Initiative And Advances at RSNA 2019 - Imaging Technology News [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2019]
- The impact of artificial intelligence on humans - Bangkok Post [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence gets to work in the automotive industry - Automotive World [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- BioSig Technologies Announces New Collaboration on Development of Artificial Intelligence Solutions in Healthcare - GlobeNewswire [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Emotion Artificial Intelligence Market Business Opportunities and Forecast from 2019-2025 | Eyesight Technologies, Affectiva - The Connect Report [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence-based fitness is promising but may not be for everyone - Livemint [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Opinion | The artificial intelligence frontier of economic theory - Livemint [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Pondering the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care Kansas City Experts Team Up on Emerging - Flatland [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Baidu Leads the Way in Innovation with 5712 Artificial Intelligence Patent Applications - GlobeNewswire [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence and National Security, and More from CRS - Secrecy News [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence: How to measure the I in AI - TechTalks [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- 52 ideas that changed the world: 26. Artificial intelligence - The Week UK [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Longer Looks: The Psychology Of Voting; Overexcited Neurons And Artificial Intelligence; And More - Kaiser Health News [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Maximize The Promise And Minimize The Perils Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Forbes [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Will the next Mozart or Picasso come from artificial intelligence? No, but here's what might happen instead - Ladders [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- China Will Outpace US Artificial Intelligence Capabilities, But Will It Win The Race? Not If We Care About Freedom - Forbes [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence apps, Parkinsons and me - BBC News [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence will affect Utah more than other states, new study says - Deseret News [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2019]
- Aural Analytics Joins Consumer Technology Association Initiative to Set New Standards for Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare - Business Wire [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- TECH 2019: stalls related to technology, artificial intelligence a big draw - The Hindu [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- The Artificially Intelligent Investor: AI And The Future Of Stock Picking - Forbes [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Defining the Scope of an Artificial Intelligence Project - Toolbox [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Facebooks Jerome Pesenti Explains the Limitations of Artificial Intelligence Research - NullTX [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- How AI Is Transforming The Art of Stock Picking - Analytics India Magazine [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Whistle Adds Artificial Intelligence and Workflow Automation to Guest Messaging Platform for Improved Hotel and Lodging Customer Service and Increased... [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Singapore BIGO Technology Integrates Artificial Intelligence Into Communication Apps for a Holistic and Immersive Experience for Users - Business Wire [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Commuter Benefits Company, Clarity Benefit Solutions, Gives Insight into Embracing Artificial Intelligence in Human Resources - PRNewswire [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- THE AI IN TRANSPORTATION REPORT: How automakers can use artificial intelligence to cut costs, open new revenue - Business Insider India [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Chinese Association of Artificial Intelligence is hosting the 6th IEEE International Conference on the AI Pharos Pte Ltd co-organised Cloud Computing... [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- VA launches National Artificial Intelligence Institute to drive research and development - FierceHealthcare [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- SkyWatch Selected to Build Advanced Autonomous Space Systems Using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analytics for the Canadian Space Agency -... [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Microsoft tech expert warns of bias and sexism in artificial intelligence - The Age [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence as Security Solution and Weaponization by Hackers - CISO MAG [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Baidu Leads the Way in Innovation with 5,712 Artificial Intelligence Patent Applications - MarTech Series [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Finland seeks to teach 1% of Europeans basics on artificial intelligence - Reuters UK [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Supply Chain Market Worth $21.8 billion by 2027- Exclusive Report by Meticulous Research - GlobeNewswire [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- What Veterans Affairs Aims to Accomplish Through Its Artificial Intelligence Institute - Nextgov [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- The Bot Decade: How AI Took Over Our Lives in the 2010s - Popular Mechanics [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Benefits & Risks of Artificial Intelligence - Future of ... [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- What is Artificial Intelligence? How Does AI Work? | Built In [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- artificial intelligence | Definition, Examples, and ... [Last Updated On: December 10th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 10th, 2019]
- Iktos and Almirall Announce Research Collaboration in Artificial Intelligence for New Drug Design - Business Wire [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence Job Demand Could Live Up to Hype - Dice Insights [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence is writing the end of Beethoven's unfinished symphony - Euronews [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- LTTE: It's important to know of weaponized artificial intelligence - Rocky Mountain Collegian [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- 8 Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Cloud Predictions To Watch in 2020 - Irish Tech News [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- It's artificial intelligence to the rescue (and response and recovery) - GreenBiz [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Director tells Naval War College audience to 'Dive In' on AI - What'sUpNewp [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Tip: Seven recommendations for introducing artificial intelligence to your newsroom - Journalism.co.uk [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Boschs A.I.-powered tech could prevent accidents by staring at you - Digital Trends [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Schlumberger inks deal to expand artificial intelligence in the oil field - Chron [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence Isn't an Arms Race With China, and the United States Shouldn't Treat It Like One - Foreign Policy [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Beethovens unfinished tenth symphony to be completed by artificial intelligence - Classic FM [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Accountability is the key to ethical artificial intelligence, experts say - ComputerWeekly.com [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence must be used with care - The Australian Financial Review [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Squirrel AI Learning Attends the Web Summit to Talk About the Application and Breakthrough of Artificial Intelligence in the Field of Education -... [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Top Artificial Intelligence Books Released In 2019 That You Must Read - Analytics India Magazine [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- 12 Everyday Applications Of Artificial Intelligence Many People Aren't Aware Of - Forbes [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence might be a factor behind the Climate Change - Digital Information World [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2019]
- Innovations in Artificial Intelligence-, Cloud-, and IoT-based Security, 2019 Research Report - ResearchAndMarkets.com - Business Wire [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2019]
- Artificial intelligence predictions for 2020: 16 experts have their say - Verdict [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2019]
- Tommie Experts: Ethically Educating on Artificial Intelligence at St. Thomas - University of St. Thomas Newsroom [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2019]
- How Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence pave the way to climate neutrality - EURACTIV [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2019]