NFL draft betting: Will the Lions go QB with the No. 2 pick? – Yahoo Sports

We are only two months removed from the Los Angeles Rams capturing Super Bowl LVI, and I still find myself counting down the 155 days left until the 2022 NFL season kicks off.

Luckily, we don't have to wait that long to bet on football.

Team futures markets have been available for those bettors who like to bank on early projections, and the activity will increasingly ramp up in the coming weeks. The NFL draft is a little over three weeks away, and the prop markets will steadily start to expand.

NFL draft betting requires a different approach than in-season, as the market behaves much differently than what you see during the fall. The odds are extremely volatile, with mock drafts and NFL insiders carrying enough weight to cause massive shifts. Instead of leaning on advanced metrics, bettors are tracking the reporting accuracy of media members, team needs and draft history of general managers.

Identifying relationships between NFL and college teams or coaches can be valuable. If an NFL team is deciding between two players, it makes sense they would be more comfortable selecting the player from a program where they have trustworthy connections. Connecting the dots and separating the signal from the noise is how you can gain an edge on the market this time of year.

The news cycle and speculative reports will slowly speed up each week until they spin out of control in the days leading up to the draft. Even though it's very early in the process, it's a very good time to pick a few valuable spots that could be vulnerable to shifts in the market. Here are the two draft props I grabbed this morning that are worth a wager at the current price.

There are 53 players on an NFL roster. There is the quarterback, and then there is everyone else. The position is far too valuable for the Lions' to pass up at the top of the draft. Willis has the physical tools and upside to warrant being selected with the second pick. With the arm strength of Josh Allen and the mobility of Lamar Jackson, the risk of passing up on Willis' potential is greater than the worst-case scenario of failing to develop him as the new face of the franchise.

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INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 03: Malik Willis #QB16 of the Liberty Flames throws during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 03, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

His projection at the next level is more difficult due to the competition he faced and his supporting cast at Liberty, but Dan Campbell's new culture in Detroit is a pretty good match. Robert Zeglinski of USA Today pointed out that the improving offensive line and Jared Goff's veteran presence are two factors that would be big positives in Willis' development. The Lions' offensive line finished 12th, just above the Colts, in adjusted sack rate last season. Goff affords them the luxury of being patient with Willis' development, while the offensive line will assure him adequate protection once he is ready.

I think it's good value getting Willis at this price to go second overall to the Lions. NFL teams do not typically kick the can down the road when it comes to the most important position in football. You will consistently hear general managers repeat the same phrase when discussing drafting or trading up for a quarterback: "If he is your guy, you go get him." The Lions won't have to go anywhere.

It stings betting into -135 odds this early, but the 57% implied probability is too low. Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner is one of the best cornerback prospects to come out in recent years and fills a position of need for a few teams in the top seven. Gardner didn't allow a single touchdown in coverage during his three-year career at Cincinnati. In recent mock drafts, he's slotted as high as the fourth overall to the Jets, who are in dire need of help in the secondary. Robert Saleh's defense ranked dead last in EPA allowed per dropback in 2021. Gardner would provide an immediate upgrade.

If Gardner drops past the Jets, the other team in New York gets a shot at him at No. 5 and No. 7 overall. That's where the bet cashes. The ghost of former general manager Dave Gettleman is still haunting the G-Men. Salary cap constraints have forced them to shop their best cornerback. The impending departure of James Bradberry creates an immediate need to draft Gardner as a more fiscally responsible upgrade. Leaving Day 1 with Ahmad Gardner and a top offensive lineman in the draft would be an impressive start for the new regime in New York. It's a solid bet they go in that direction.

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NFL draft betting: Will the Lions go QB with the No. 2 pick? - Yahoo Sports