NFL betting: This plus-money prop has hit in 18 of last 20 Super Bowls – Yahoo Sports

Posted: February 9, 2022 at 1:21 am

The beauty of betting on the Super Bowl is that you can bet on almost anything. The prop market at BetMGM is expansive and there's no shortage of options to increase your excitement level for the big game. With the sheer volume of options available, there are edges to be found if you look hard enough. We've found a prop that has hit in 18 of the last 20 Super Bowls and has the backing of a former NFL punter. The best part? It has plus-money odds.

Kickoff returns can be some of the most exciting plays in football. Unfortunately, we don't get that many of them anymore. Kickers are booting the ball into the end zone at a very high rate. During this past regular season, over 58% of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks.

Currently, you can bet on whether the opening kickoff will be returned or whether it will be a touchback. Touchback is a -145 favorite. Matt Gay, kicker of the Rams, produced touchbacks at a 63.7% rate this season. Evan McPherson of the Bengals kicked it through the end zone at a 60.4% rate. Both kickers are above average on producing touchbacks. You might think that betting on a touchback is pretty safe.

Are we potentially fading Evan McPherson in the Super Bowl prop market? (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Not so fast. The Super Bowl is a different animal. Over the last 20 years, only two opening kickoffs have produced a touchback. Eighteen of the last 20 opening kickoffs have been returned. Currently at BetMGM, you can get +115 odds on the opening kickoff to produce a return.

If you're going to discuss the art of kicking a football, there are few better sources than a former NFL punter. Pat McAfee punted and kicked at West Virginia in college. Once he got to the NFL, he spent eight seasons as an NFL punter and kick-off specialist with Indianapolis. He participated in the Super Bowl in his rookie season with the Colts.

Prior to last year's Super Bowl, McAfee discussed the opening kickoff on his very popular Pat McAfee Show.

Story continues

There isnt normally a touchback on the opening kickoff because the ball is a brand new ball, its basically just plastic. Most balls that you kick have been rubbed down for 30 minutes by your equipment manager and the other teams equipment manager in the presence of an NFL official and its beat up a little bit ... the Super Bowl kickoff ball, that ball goes immediately to the Hall of Fame right after the kick, so it is not beat to hell and back for 30 minutes by an equipment manager. Its very difficult to kick a touchback," McAfee said.

Listen, when a lawyer tells you something about the law, you just accept it as fact. When a professional chef gives you cooking advice, you listen. When a former NFL kicker discusses the intricacies of kicking a football, you have to accept it as 100% fact.

McAfee did go on to express skepticism prior to last year's Super Bowl by reminding his audience that Harrison Butker has a crazy strong leg and he might be someone that could kick a touchback even with a ball not in optimal kicking condition. The Chiefs won the toss and deferred last year, meaning Butker had the opening kickoff. The kick was returned, and there was no touchback for the 18th time in 20 years.

No touchback currently pays out at +115 on BetMGM. Anytime you can get a bet that hits at a 90% clip at plus-money, you'd be crazy not to take it. McAfee made a lot of money kicking footballs for a living, and he gave us a good explanation as to why it's so hard to kick the opening kickoff. Let's not ask questions and hope this trend continues again on Sunday.

Read the original:

NFL betting: This plus-money prop has hit in 18 of last 20 Super Bowls - Yahoo Sports

Related Posts