NFL betting: It could be a prime spot to fade Tom Brady and the Bucs – Yahoo Sports

As we enter the final four weeks of the regular season, the focus slowly shifts to the postseason. The playoff hunt will dominate the backstory of every game with each team's fate continuing to evolve every time the scoreboard hits 0:00. The importance of each game gets magnified as fans start to roll out the dreaded "must-win" label. It used to justify an expectation that a team will over-perform simply because the stakes are raised. You see coaches cringe during interviews the second it rolls off the tongue of a reporter. Additional pressure rarely translates to success. That's exactly why coaches spent the last 14 weeks ingraining the idea into their team that each game is equally important.

Bettors are wired differently. We are not coaches. We spend each week trying to capture any possible edge we can find. Sometimes it can be data-driven or just news and information. Every sports bettor will tell you that a week doesn't go by where they aren't trying to project where a team is mentally and how that will impact their play. It can be a player prop when facing his old team, or a team looking ahead to a game the following week. It's part of the handicap. Understanding its predictive value is the key.

We grow up watching our favorite sports-themed movies and they all have one thing in common a happy ending. When the pressure peaked, the team responded to defeat adversity and secure the victory. The NFL is highly entertaining, but it's not a movie. Credits don't roll when the games end. More often than not, when a team is in a "must-win" situation, it ends with disappointment and frustration for fans. Bettors need to keep that in mind as we wind down the NFL season. Don't give teams a bump simply because their backs are against the wall. Players respond differently to pressure. I targeted two games that feature at least one team that's feeling the heat as the season winds down. Here is the best way to bet how they will respond on Sunday.

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The Steelers at 6-6-1 are behind 10 other AFC teams in the playoff standings. If Pittsburgh plans to push its way to the top seven, it has to start this week against Tennessee. The Steelers have the Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens waiting for them in a brutal stretch to end the season. Mike Tomlin's record of 14 straight seasons without a losing record is in serious jeopardy.

The Titans are coming off a 20-0 win over the Jaguars. It already sounds like it's "1-2-3 Cancun" time in Jacksonville. Regardless of what we think of the Jaguars, the shutout speaks to how the Titans' defense has improved down the stretch. Mike Vrabel's unit ranks 11th in EPA/Play allowed while the formerly formidable Steelers defense ranks an uncharacteristic 27th. In a matchup in which both teams will rely heavily on its ground game, Tennessee's defense is top 10 in terms of rushing success rate allowed. If Big Ben has to win this one with his arm, I'm betting the Steelers fall deeper out of the playoff picture.

What a difference a year makes. After being swept during the season by the Saints, Tom Brady's Bucs headed to New Orleans as three-point underdogs in last year's playoff divisional round. It's been downhill for the Saints ever since.

Fast forward 11 months. The defending champion Buccaneers are double-digit favorites at home against a Saints team struggling to stay above water in the playoff race. The Saints continue to be a puzzle Brady has yet to solve in the regular season. New Orleans took down Tampa 36-27 as a four-point underdog in late October. Tampa is now laying 6.5 more points in the rematch. Are 10.5 points too many to lay with the best team in football? Tampa Bay is 5-0 as a double-digit favorite this season, while the Saints lost their last three as underdogs.

As strong as the Bucs have been at home (6-0 S/U, 5-1 ATS), I do think we see the best version of the Saints we have seen in a while. It's not that New Orleans was impressive in beating the Jets, but it's that the game served a purpose in getting some key reps for players returning from injury.

Running back Alvin Kamara gets the attention, but DE Marcus Davenport and OT Terron Armstead are the valuable pieces that make this Saints team a playoff contender. We saw Tampa take its foot off the gas against Buffalo at home last week, and I think they let the Saints hang around long enough to cover. I'm not daring enough to grab the moneyline at +400, but I am happy to get a 10.5-point head start in this one.

Stats provided by Ben Baldwin and teamrankings.com.

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NFL betting: It could be a prime spot to fade Tom Brady and the Bucs - Yahoo Sports