From the Newmaverse: This is when Democrats social programs die – Yahoo Finance

A reader going by Greg B wrote in recently to protest the topline spending number for the Democrats now-moribund Build Back Better legislation. Democrats claim the bill would cost $1.7 trillion over a decade, assuming some provisionssuch as an expanded child tax creditexpire after just one year. But the real goal is to keep those programs going with new legislation in the future, which means $1.7 trillion might be more like a down payment, with the real cost being a lot higher.

Only a clueless liberal could ever say $1.7 trillion is the top line number, Greg B. wrote. Democrats have proven to be nothing but liars as they tried to use gimmicks and cheat. The Democrats social programs never end.

Greg is right about the gimmicks. As a few Democrats in the Senate objected to the $3 trillion cost of the initial BBB outline, the bills drafters cut the cost by limiting the amount of time key provisions would be in effect. Thats not a Democratic specialty, however. Both parties use those types of accounting tricks. Many of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, for instance, expire in 2026, because keeping them on the books permanently would have broken the Senates budgeting rules. Republicans, like Democrats, shield the full cost of pet policies by phasing them out at the beginning, while hoping future votes keep them going.

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But what about those social programs? Do they ever expire? Or does the social safety net always get bigger? Those are important questions, given that BBB could return in modified form in 2022.

Signs that read "Build Back Better" and "Expand Medicare" are seen as U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) speaks about the Build Back Better package outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, December 15, 2021. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

The biggest social programsSocial Security and Medicareare, in fact, Democratic policies that expanded and calcified over time. Anybody complaining? Both are very popular with members of both parties, and ideas about trimming them routinely go nowhere. Every advanced nation in the world has some form of retirement security, which arguably becomes more necessary as living standards rise and life expectancy increases. Advanced nations also get progressively wealthier, so why shouldn't they provide more benefits for citizens?

But other welfare programs favored by Democrats come and go, and 2021 actually proved that some social programs dont get beyond the pilot phase. The American Rescue Plan Congress passed in March was a purely Democratic construction that only crossed the finish line because Democrats won thin Congressional majorities in the 2020 elections. No Republicans voted for the ARP, which contained a variety of programs that couldnt have drawn bipartisan support.

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Many of them ran their course in 2021 and wont be renewed, even though Democrats still control Congress. A raft of federal unemployment benefits expired in September, and the third stimulus check that went to many families is surely the last. Some Democrats favor universal basic incomea fixed cash payment that goes to most or all adult citizens on a regular basisand the combination of jobless aid and stimulus checks was a form of that. But it was very expensive and never gained mass support. Many Americans actually felt stimulus aid went too far, so that experiment is over.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer peers out from behind a mock U.S. Treasury check as he holds a press conference on the expanded Child Tax Credit payments at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., July 15, 2021. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Most of the ARPs COVID-related provisions, including food and rental assistance, were one-time expenditures. There were two major changes to the Affordable Care Act, one temporary and one permanent. The ARP cut insurance premiums for low-income people covered by the ACA for 2021 and 2022. It also included permanent new cost reductions for middle-income people getting coverage through the ACA. That will sharply cut insurance costs for 1 to 2 million middle-aged Americans who dont yet qualify for Medicare or get coverage through an employer and who were paying upwards of $20,000 per year in premiums before the fix. Both of those changes to the ACA could prove popular.

One of the biggest elements of the ARP was a six-month expansion of the child tax credit, along with a new rule allowing millions of qualifying families to receive half the credit in advance, on a monthly basis. That expired on Dec. 31, 2021. Whether to renew it is one of the most contentious issues among Democrats right now.

Many Democrats want to make this benefit permanent. But it would cost about $190 billion per yearnearly $2 trillion over the traditional 10-year budget windowand at least a few Democratic senators think this is way too expensive. The BBB bill included just one year of the expanded credit, which is one of the main objections of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who sank the latest version of the bill in December by saying he wont vote for it. Manchin wants a more forthright bill that includes funding for the full expected lifespan of Democratic programs, or strips them out altogether.

The fight over the child tax credit proves Greg B. is wrong about Democrats ever-expanding social-welfare plans. Sure, most Dems would like to enlarge that net. But the political system isnt letting them. Theres no grass-roots movement demanding that Congress pass this provision, and theres a good chance voters will boot Congressional Democrats from power in 2022. Along the way, the social safety net is more likely to shrink than grow. Democrats tried, and voters yawned.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including "Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Click here to get Rick Newmans stories by email.

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From the Newmaverse: This is when Democrats social programs die - Yahoo Finance