Some random thoughts for vaping in 2022 – The Times of India Blog

The 10th annual vape predictions is out in the market, and experts have told us what it means for the market this year.

Lets get to the first things first.

Experts say last years high were mainly regulatory directions many Asian countries took on lower-risk alternatives, including China. A top WHO award went to Indias former health minister for banning vaping, even as he was in the midst of being ousted for grossly mishandling the Covid situation.

In 2022, the tide will decisively shift in favour of tobacco harm reduction policies, with China high on political and monetary influence will most likely lead the transformation. In India, there will be a consolidation of the tobacco harm reduction (THR) movement with more voices joining the chorus for risk-reduction measures. Empirical and policy evidence in favour of allowing the countrys significant tobacco-using population access to less harmful options will find its way through the market clutter. The new health administration has so far downplayed the ENDS ban, which could indicate its willingness to consider a counterview.

And then, pushed by rising consumer awareness and demand, and lack of enforcement of the ban, the black market will become more entrenched and it will become increasingly easier for Indians to buy vapes.

Increasing restrictions after the EVALI lung crisis and Covid across the world wreaked havoc for the vaping industry though there were some positives. So lets see the bad impact. In the United States, the pre-market tobacco application process will continue to be central to the future of the industry.

I am told millions of applications have been rejected and many remained outstanding a year later. So there could be more legal challenges. And even if hypothetically the FDA concludes their review of all 6m+ applications next year, effective enforcement will be unlikely, leading to continued uncertainty.

There are rumours already in the market that the US FDA Commissioner, Robert Califf, is known for having critical views of flavoured vape products, he is unlikely to prioritize the FDAs review process given the many other health issues that will be on his plate. The US market has seen a huge growth in flavoured disposables and synthetic nicotine mainly because of the unforeseen consequences of this policy uncertainty in the US.

Across Europe, restrictions on flavours and other sales restrictions will continue during 2022 together with increasing tax. A tax directive at an EU level may bring in a minimum tax for all vape products in the EU27 and political discussions in the European Parliament may well result in European-wide flavour restrictions. And in China, vaping will be brought under the tobacco monopoly, and licensing will be controlled centrally (although private companies may be allowed to continue to operate).

But there is sunshine on the flip side of it. And it is for the good of the industry.

The US FDA has authorized a vape product for sale in the US, deeming it to be appropriate for the protection of public health. This is a huge step forward: if one product can obtain approval, then so can others. The US Senate has blocked the implementation of a federal tax on vaping because it would be deemed regressive, particularly given that it would tax some vape products higher than combustible cigarettes.

And then, the European Parliament has granted preliminary approval to a cancer report which stated that electronic cigarettes could allow some smokers to progressively quit smoking (even if they also approved the future assessment of a flavour ban in the same report).

So what will happen to the vape markets? Policies will continue to limit the introduction of new products and technologies as the availability of tobacco cigarettes and disposable e-cigarettes continues to grow. New systems that will help track buyers and products to prevent them from being used by youth. This will make products more expensive, and people who smoke cigarettes/use nicotine are also more likely to distrust a system that requires registration.

And then, there will be some crossover with the cannabis industry, focusing on heating elements and safer, more affordable batteries. Green materials I am told are now used for the outer casings and packaging on some devices.

The availability and price of disposable e-cigarettes suit customer buying habits for people likely to use nicotine. The issue with disposables is that no one is currently taking responsibility for the batteries and plastics once the products are used or expired. This, claim experts, needs to be handled with care.

Consider the situation in the UK. New NICE guidance published this November will accelerate the number of health professionals recommending vaping to smokers. The new Tobacco Control Plan for England will see a greater emphasis on promoting vaping to reach this goal. Devolved nations will take this as an impetus to relax their more hesitant stances and get behind vaping to a greater extent.

2021 will certainly be remembered as a phoenix year for the disposable e-cigarette, with incredible growth in their popularity in the UK. Although seen as controversial by some, disposables will have increased the number of people making a quit attempt with an e-cigarette. Next years smoking rates data will reflect this change.

The impact of the vaping crisis in 2019 continues to reverberate and reshape the nicotine landscape in the US while also having a major impact on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

Experts claim the end of combustion is in sight for tobacco, just as it is for fossil fuels. Many groups are trying to stop tobacco harm reduction (THR), but THR will be driven forward by the dynamic of new nicotine technologies, consumer interest and good regulation. THR is here for good: its an easy fix that will have a massive impact on world health. It is one of the classic, but often unremarked, health interventions that doesnt require government expenditure. And then, there is growing evidence that vaping can increase quit rates, reduce smoking prevalence and that vaping is not a gateway into smoking.

There will be the rise of basic drivers of technology, innovation, and consumer preferences (e.g for not dying in agony of cancer or living in misery with COPD) that will slowly change the market moving steadily but irresistibly like the earths tectonic plates.

Predicting what is likely to happen in the vaping market continues to be a good basis for humility, claim experts. The short-term developments that most get attention have been negative for some time. There is a hugely well-financed effort to constrain or ban alternatives to cigarettes. It is backed by bodies such as the WHO which shamefully continues to show no grasp of some pretty basic concepts in public health and thinks it is fighting the tobacco industry without an apparent appreciation of just what that industry is and how it operates. Such groups perpetuate the epidemic of cigarette-caused disease and deaths. They will continue to so in 2022 given the value placed on consistency over rationality.

The world is also witnessing the most rapid declines in cigarette use in countries that have allowed substitution of cigarettes with far lower risk alternatives.

Views expressed above are the author's own.

END OF ARTICLE

View original post here:

Some random thoughts for vaping in 2022 - The Times of India Blog