The Ukraine war and the worlds reaction to it will be a decisive factor in shaping the global political and economic order in the decade ahead. In particular, the Western allies actions, narratives, and planning regarding both Russia and the role of the Global South in Ukraines postwar reconstruction will indicate what their long-term strategic goals are. Does the West simply want to see Russia defeated and NATO enlarged and strengthened, or can it envisage a victory in Ukraine that lays the foundations for a world in which democracy is more secure and global governance more inclusive and effective?
While the outcome of the fighting remains uncertain, the Wests strategic aims, particularly how it intends to treat Russia in the event that Ukraine prevails, will have huge consequences. The big question is whether the allies will seek to punish Russia as a whole by imposing severe reparations or instead target President Vladimir Putins autocratic regime in a way that limits the burdens imposed on the Russian people.
At the beginning of the war, the Western allies emphasized that defending the United Nations Charter and democracy were their primary objectives. In late spring, some U.S. strategists and officials advocated permanently weakening Russiaas a strategic goal, although it is not clear whether this would still be an objective in the event of regime change in Russia.
While any overall settlement of the Ukraine conflict must require Russia to bear some part of the reconstruction burden resulting from a war that it started, the severity of the terms imposed on the Russian people will have political ramifications. The harsher the terms, the more likely it will be that Russia embraces China even more closely, so that a tight Sino-Russian bloc becomes part of the postwar geopolitical order.
The effect of such an alliance should not be underestimated. While China would be the blocs center of gravity, Russias relatively small GDP (which isless than that of Italy) should not lead one to dismiss the countrys scientific capabilities, the size of its nuclear arsenal, its natural-resource wealth, and the strategic importance of its vast territory.
By pursuing measures that treat the Russian people differently than Putin and his autocracy, the worlds democracies might hope to prevent a long-term outcome in which Russia would be lost to them. Banning all Russians from entering the European Union, as some policymakersnow propose, is the type of measure that will push the country toward China. And misleadingly dividing the world into democracies and autocracies comes from the same ineffective, polarizing playbook. When dealing with dictatorships like Putins, a key element of any successful diplomatic strategy is to distinguish between political leaders and ordinary citizens.
True, Russias veto power in the U.N. Security Council made it impossible for the U.N. to play a coordinating role in countering Russias aggression in Ukraine. But the Western allies that assumed that task made little effort to consult the Global South in their decisionmaking, or to involve it in the postwar planning process.
It is of course also true that much of the Global South abstained from voting on thetwo major U.N. General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia in March. But the West should have recognized that developing countries response to the war reflected old and deep-seated reflexesnamely, the bitter collective memory of European colonialism and recollections of the Soviet Unions support for many of these countries during the struggle for independence.
Moreover, theLugano conferenceorganized by the Western allies in early July to launch aplatformfor Ukraines reconstruction did not include any countries from the Global South. One could argue that this was primarily a donors meeting, but it excluded rich Gulf states and included countries such as Albania and North Macedonia, neither of which is likely to be able to contribute.
Rebuilding Ukraine will requirehundreds of billions of dollars. This effort thus risks diverting substantial aid from the Global South, which is still trying to get rich countries to fulfill their longstandingpledgeto provide $100 billion per year to support climate-change mitigation and adaptation in poorer countries. It will also be interesting to see the extent to which the procurement rules for reconstruction projects in Ukraine will allow non-donor developing countries to bid effectively.
But it may not be too late for the West to involve the Global Southparticularly countries like India and South Africa, which have good technical capacities in certain sectorsin Ukraines reconstruction. The West should also include developing countries in setting the rules regarding possible remaining sanctions against Russia after the first phase of a settlement, as well as the regulations governing frozen Russian assets.
In the event that Ukraine prevails, the Wests treatment of Russia and its stance toward the Global South during Ukraines reconstruction will determine whether the wars outcome serves as the launchpad for global progress toward a more inclusive and equitable multilateralism. In the worst case, the West will have a achieved a pyrrhic victory that ends up strengthening autocracy and further deepening global divisions.
Follow this link:
What are the Wests strategic goals in the Ukraine war? - Brookings Institution
- WA woman in Ukraine to join foreign legion and fight Russia, and hopes to work as a medic - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukrainian women are volunteering to fight, continuing a tradition - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine suspends 11 political parties with links to Russia - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Russias Ukraine Invasion Rallies a Divided Nation: The United States - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraines Radio Station of National Resistance - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Theres an easy way to help Ukraine without military escalation: cancel its foreign debt - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Putin appears at big rally as troops press attack in Ukraine - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- The Complexities of the Ukraine Dilemma - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 23 of Russias Invasion of Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- The power of the new Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraines leader warns war will cost Russia for generations - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- SWIFT, hedgehog, MiG: Here's a guide to the terms of war in Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine Maps & Facts - World Atlas [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine War Update: Refusing to surrender Mariupol to ... [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Fiction About Lives in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Disrupting cyberattacks targeting Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- How Facial Recognition Is Being Used in the Ukraine War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- A Ukrainian mom scribbled her contact info on her daughter's back as the war erupted - NPR [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russia can only afford its war in Ukraine because Britain helped raise the cash - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Ukraine braces for a renewed Russian offensive on its eastern front as it happened - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russians start to see evidence of high military casualties in Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Ukraine war disruptions send food prices to their highest ever - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Statement from the President on Delivery of Air Defense Systems to Ukraine - The White House [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: catch up on this week's must-read news and analysis - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Rocket attack on Ukraine train station kills at least 50 trying to flee, scores injured - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- War in Ukraine: Latest developments - france24.com [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- War In Ukraine: Latest Developments [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- How (members of) Pink Floyd reunited to record a song for Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Opinion | America Needs to Be Strategic About the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine Needs a Lot of Things, but Sean Penns Drama Isnt One of Them (Column) - Variety [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Why the Ukraine-Russia war is dividing the Australian Chinese community - ABC News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- This is what a Ukraine town looks like after Russian troops withdraw - NPR [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Poland-Ukraine ties seen as target of Russian disinformation - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Witnessing atrocities in real time in Ukraine is changing everything - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine's first lady recalls moment she realized her country was at war: LIVE UPDATES - Fox News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine latest: White House press secretary says Ukrainians 'won the battle of Kyiv', World Bank forecasts war will slash economy in half - ABC News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Desperate Ukraine tells U.S. 'bureaucracy' is no excuse for failing to provide critical weapons and ammunition - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Prosecution of Russian war crimes is ultimate test for Ukraines state - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Live Updates | War in Ukraine inspires protest in Chile - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 45 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: Tens of thousands may have been killed in Mariupol, Zelenskyy says, as he warns of 'tense' week ahead - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine War: Live Updates and Latest News - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- How Ukraine's mud became a secret weapon in its defense against Russia - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Remarks By President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine - The White House [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: 'We will stay here as long as we can' - ambulance crews defiant as Russian forces almost encircle frontline city - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Ukraine says mass graves in Mariupol were 20 times bigger than Bucha burial site; Biden to send more weapons and aid to Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Roots of the Resistance: Understanding National Identity in Ukraine - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 57 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- The War in Ukraine Has Unleashed a New Word - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- The U.N. now projects more than 8 million people will flee Ukraine as refugees - NPR [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Russias war in Ukraine threatens to spill over in dangerous new phase - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- US, allies hustling to save Ukraine; Rand Paul says US push to get Ukraine into NATO provoked invasion: April 26 recap - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 62 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Russia warns Britain for provoking Ukraine [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Is Hungary Ukraine's Biggest Problem in the European Union? - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: Thousands of UK troops to be sent to Europe in bid to combat Russian aggression - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- The hybrid war in Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- DJI suspends sales in Ukraine and Russia - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Congress Clears Bill to Allow Lending Arms to Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- How this U.S.-made, $176,000 anti-tank weapon could change the war in Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Malcolm Nance, TV pundit turned fighter in Ukraine: I believe in the defense of democracy - The Guardian US [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Briton and American Killed in Ukraine - The Moscow Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraines Zelenskyy invited to G20 summit to be attended by Putin - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- The Ukraine war in maps: Attacks in Transnistria fuel fears that Russian aggression may spill over border - EL PAS in English [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Russias push into eastern Ukraine comes amid fears of a protracted war - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Biden requests $33 billion for Ukraine war; Putin threatens 'lightning fast' retaliation to nations that intervene - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Russia sharpens warnings as the U.S. and Europe send more weapons to Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine-Russia War: Latest News and Live Updates - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine war boosts weapons makers' stock prices, but revenue to take years to flow through - ABC News [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Ukraine Crisis Reveals the Folly of Organic Farming - The Wall Street Journal [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- WFP appeals for re-opening of Ukraine ports to avert looming famine threat - UN News [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- I didnt believe stories of atrocities in Ukraine. But then I saw the photos - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- The War in Ukraine, as Seen on Russian TV - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- How hospital wedding dance restored Ukraine bombing victims will to live - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Finland, Sweden need to move now on NATO while Putin is preoccupied with Ukraine, former secretary general says - CNBC [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- How Russia and Ukraine are finding new ways to use tech in the war - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- 'This has to end': Jill Biden sees Ukraine moms' heartbreak - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- The Lessons Taiwan Is Learning From Ukraine - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Ukraine Made Exactly One Copy Of Its Best Cannon. It Just Joined The War. - Forbes [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- UK poised to hand further 1.3bn military package to Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]