Battle for Antarctica. Why scientists believe that the Apocalypse may break out on the white continent – The Times Hub

Antarctica has long been a bone of contention, but the real Apocalypse around it will begin in 2048. If not before.

Source: focus.ua

Last June, the Journal of The Royal Society of New Zealand published a paper by scientists from the University of Otago proving that New Zealand's original inhabitants, the Maori, discovered Antarctica at least a thousand years before Europeans arrived there in the early 19th century. For this sensational conclusion, New Zealand researchers have studied Aboriginal oral history, as well as all sorts of documents and reports published by various organizations that do not have common academic or commercial channels. It turns out that the Polynesian leader Hui Te Rangior, together with his team, swam into the waters of the Antarctic back in the 7th century and, perhaps, was the first person to set foot on the White Continent.

The discovery may seem like an ethnographic fun, an additional detail in the museum's exposition. However, it fits better into the well-known formula: History is politics thrown into the past. As the scientists themselves have stated, we are creating a platform on which to have much broader conversations about New Zealand's relationship with Antarctica. Why? Because the battle for Antarctica is something that humanity will have to endure in the not too distant future. And each of several dozen countries must find its own casus belli for this a pretext for war.

The legend of El Dorado around the South Pole has fascinated many Europeans since Sir Francis Drake. On the first day of 1739, the French captain de Lozier looked at the cloudy, foggy and ice-bound coast the one that would later be called Bouvet Island. Then he returned home with a description of majestic icebergs and black-and-white penguins that looked like large ducks, but with fins instead of wings.

Almost three decades later, in August 1769, James Cook on the barge Endeavour left England with a secret order to search for the mysterious Southern Continent and find it before the French navigators. He did not find milk rivers and jelly banks. If the Southern Continent existed, then, as Cook had to state after his round-the-world trip, he lay in harsh regions beyond the 40th parallel. But Cook did not calm down. A little later, he made another expedition. On January 30, 1774, he reached 7110, 300 miles beyond the Antarctic Circle. The ice forced him to turn back.

Antarctica holds more than 80% of the world's fresh water perhaps the most important resource in the era of climate change on Earth, which should be fought for.

The Russians and the British landed in Antarctica with a difference of 3 days. It's not hard to imagine how these differences could be used in future disputes over the rights to Antarctica

Photo: Pexels

The story of the race to the South Pole by Robert Scott and Roald Amundsen has grown into legends so that it almost turned into a legend itself. The Norwegian, having bet on dogs (as on what you can ride and what you can eat), won, having reached his cherished goal on December 14, 1911. The Briton, who decided to go on a pony, lost. Having reached the pole a month later than the rival, he, along with the members of his expedition, died on the way back from hunger, cold and physical exhaustion. In the Norwegian film Amundsen Lord George Curzon at a feast in honor of the outstanding Norwegian polar explorer, which was given at the Royal Geographical Society in London, made a toast to the real heroes of the Amundsen expedition dogs (this is how Amundsen described this episode in his scandalous memoirs & # 171; My life as an explorer & # 187 ;).

This drama is often seen as a mixture of romance and vanity. Although the trigger for it was quite economic reasons. In 1908, Great Britain put forward the first territorial claims, which later, after the death of Scott, were formalized by a corresponding royal decree. The role of the deceased researcher in this was noticeable. It was Scott, shortly before his expedition to the South Pole, who claimed that unheard-of coal reserves are hidden in Antarctica. And he was not wrong.

According to modern estimates, the depths of Antarctica contain 150 billion tons of coal. The US Geological Survey claims that the local oil fields are superior to those stored in pantries Saudi Arabia and reach 7 billion tons. Gas is also more than enough more than 4 trillion cubic meters. Uranium is more than in the Congo. There are deposits of copper ore, nickel, molybdenum, mica, lead, graphite, zinc, diamonds and gold. But perhaps the most important resource in the era of climate change on Earth is fresh water. More than 80% of its global reserves are concentrated here.

These riches are so overwhelming to the imagination that patterns of all sorts of myths are woven around them. Perhaps the most famous, passing through the department of conspiracy theory, is about & # 171; Schwabenland & # 187;, & # 171; the promised land & # 187;, created on the White Continent by order and for the needs of Adolf Hitler. In January 1939, the Fuhrer sent an expedition to Antarctica, which began research in the area of Queen Maud Land. But this modest scientific contribution, conspiracy theorists believe, is not the end of the matter. The Nazis, they believe, equipped a network of under-ice bunkers here and even conducted experiments on the production of aircraft. One of the apocrypha testifies that in October 1944, the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy of the Third Reich, Grand Admiral Karl Doenitz, speaking to the cadets of the naval school in Labe, said: & # 171; The German submarine fleet is proud that far, on the edge of the earth, it built for the Fuhrer and the Fatherland a real earthly paradise, an impregnable fortress. Mysterious Schwabenland within the framework of this theory, reeking of the myth of Valhalla allegedly became a refuge for the Fuhrer. He did not shoot himself, but died safely there in 1971 (according to another version, Hitler cruised between Antarctica, Colombia and Argentina). And yes, of course, the secret services of the two superpowers, the USSR and the USA, knew about it.

Polar Silk Road. Chinese workers drain meltwater as part of the opening of the Comandante Ferraz station in Antarctica

They started talking about such a parallel world after the 1946 American Highjump expedition (High jump) led by Admiral Richard Byrd, which included 13 warships and more than 4 thousand people, of which only a few dozen really were scientists, ended without much triumph. Its purpose was to teach military personnel and test materials for a possible war in Antarctica in extreme cold conditions. It took eight months, but it ended almost twice as fast and with the loss of three people. And when Byrd returned home, word spread that Americans were attacked by some unknown aircraft like flying saucers. They had to retreat, although the moment to make Antarctica theirs was, as they say, right for this.

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There were also statements that the USSR prevented the success of the case. The corresponding statement was made by George Kennan, whom the Los Angeles Times later called the architect of the Cold War. Kennan called for the speedy organization of a rebuff to the exorbitantly growing ambitions of the Soviets, who, after the successful end of the war with Germany and Japan, are in a hurry to use their military and political victories to plant the harmful ideas of communism not only in Eastern Europe and China!.

The curtain of secrecy over Operation High Jump still exists. But the basis of all conflicts around the White Continent is still not high-tech surviving Nazis, and his wealth.

One had to go through several clashes in these harsh places (for example, the Argentines with the British in 1952, after which lawsuits began) to understand that a legal settlement here is an urgent need. In December 1959, the Antarctic Treaty was concluded in Washington, which entered into force in 1961 after it was signed by 12 states; during the International Geophysical Year (IGY) 1957-1958, the following countries operated in Antarctica: France, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, Soviet Union, UK and USA. These countries have established 55 Antarctic stations.

According to the latest data, 54 states have acceded to the treaty. 29 of them, including all original signatories, have the right to vote. Ukraine, which has the station Akademik Vernadsky in Antarctica, is one of them.

The Argentines have come up with a recipe for how to prove their right to Antarctica. At the end of 1977, they brought a pregnant woman there, who gave birth to a baby there the first on the continent.

The treaty itself did not deny or support national claims to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica, but it did prohibit all parties from establishing military bases, conducting military maneuvers, testing any weapon (including nuclear), or disposing of radioactive waste in the area. He encouraged freedom of scientific research and the exchange of scientific information and personnel in Antarctica. In 1991, in addition to the treaty, the Madrid Protocol was signed, which entered into force in 1998. The agreement, providing comprehensive protection for the Antarctic environment and dependent and associated ecosystems, banned mineral and oil exploration for 50 years and included rules for protecting the Antarctic environment.

The main Achilles' heel of the protocol is the period after which everything in Antarctica can change. That time will come in 2048. All participating countries are preparing for it and it is unlikely that it will do without a fight. At least diplomatically. Methods in order to claim their rights to some of the Antarctic delicacies after the specified period are chosen differently.

Tourist liner in Antarctica

Photo: Pexels

Belay Lounge not everyone's history is as long as that of the New Zealand Maori. Or at least like Russia and Great Britain. Therefore, sometimes you have to turn on other mechanisms to prove birthright. Perhaps the best recipe was invented in Argentina, precisely when, after the death of Juan Peron, a military dictatorship ruled the country.

At the end of 1977, a citizen of this country, who was seven months pregnant, was taken by plane to the Esperanza Antarctic base, where on January 7 of the following year a baby named Emilio Marcos Palma was born, who immediately became a hero in his homeland. Of course, he was immediately granted Argentine citizenship, and he himself was entered into the Guinness Book of Records as the first person in history born on the continent of Antarctica (although there was already a Norwegian Solveig Jacobsen before him, she was born in 1913 on the island of South Georgia, however this area, which contains the ashes of the polar explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton, is not always included in the Antarctic).

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Emilio has become a trump card for future negotiations on the ownership of that sector of the White Continent, which Buenos Aires continues to claim.

Emilio Marcos was not the last Argentine born in Esperanza, as the very program launched by the then government went beyond this isolated case. During the reign of the junta, a dozen families were brought to the base with the same biblical goal: Be fruitful and multiply. And they didn't disappoint either. Moreover, the experience of Argentina prompted Santiago, an obvious competitor of Buenos Aires in this segment of Antarctica, to take similar actions.

The Chileans organized in 1984, the birth of Juan Pablo Camocho at his Frei Montalva base in the South Shetland Islands of Antarctica. The civilian settlement was later named Villa las Estrellas. Simon Romero, a New York Times reporter who has been there, described in January 2016 such sights as a school, sports facilities, and a cemetery. He noted: Fewer than 200 people live in this outpost, founded in 1984 during the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, when Chile sought to support its territorial claims in Antarctica. Since then, this tiny village has been at the center of one of Antarctica's most remarkable experiments: subjecting entire families to isolation and extreme conditions in an attempt to achieve a semblance of normal life at the bottom of the planet.

Whether the experiment succeeded or not, the context makes us think more about its legal aspects.

Today, states that want to bite off as much of the delicious snow cake as possible, like sprinters, are frozen at a low start. No one perceives 2048 as something infinitely far away. On the contrary, everyone reasonably believes that the battle has already begun. And the winner is the one who will not lag behind the requirements of the times.

In August 2011, the Lowy Institute of International Policy of Australia published a paper entitled Antarctica: Assessing and Protecting Australia's National Interest, urging Canberra to start preparing for the 2048 conversation. After all, Australia is the player with the largest share in Antarctica, claiming 42% of the continent. Its claim to the continental shelf in Antarctica is equal to the size of the entire Arctic Ocean.

It seems inevitable that the issue of mineral resources will be raised again in 2048, the document says. This will likely lead to a resurgence of previous arguments from India and Malaysia that Antarctica should be preserved as the common heritage of mankind and its resources should be shared fairly. It would therefore be prudent for Australia to initiate diplomatic consultations with other claimant states in order to develop a common position in response to expected future pressure to withdraw.

Doaa Abdel-Motaal, an environmental expert, says human migration to Antarctica is something to seriously consider

Such views are not exceptional. Everyone understands that the Antarctic Treaty is nothing more than suspension. He, as BBC journalist Matthew Teller, who visited the White Continent, wrote, has no teeth. Faced with increasing competition for surplus natural resources, and unpredictable intelligence gathering opportunities, all he can do like my penguin is scream and slap his feet in the snow.

The main question is not whether the invasion of Antarctica will occur in 2048, but whether it is possible to find an algorithm that would direct it to a civilized channel. Doaa Abdel-Motaal, an environmental expert who traveled to the Arctic and Antarctic, in her book Battle for the Seventh Continent (2016) argues that factors such as global armament, the rise in climate refugees that the world is about to witness, and an increasingly critical search for energy resources will make Antarctica and Antarctica in general a highly sought-after target. The harsh climate will soon cease to be a safety certificate for this region (it was he, and not the Treaty, she believes, that protected the White Continent from a massive invasion).

Is there any good news? There is. Its name is Svalbard. It is the model that guides the Norwegian Arctic outpost, Abdel-Motaal believes, should be taken as the basis for a legal settlement.

By establishing sovereignty without exclusive ownership of economic resources, this model has created a new approach to territorial governance, she writes. It could solve many of Antarctica's problems, allowing territorial claimants to realize their claims while allowing the rest of the international community to share in the benefits of wealth.

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Abdel-Motaal's formula that politicians need to start actively including Antarctica in the climate refugee equation is a little scary. Especially when you remember that some Norwegian politicians have already tried to start a conversation about housing for refugees in Svalbard, albeit without success. However, Abdel-Motaal believes that migration to Antarctica is something that should be considered in all seriousness.

While this idea may seem inhumane, perhaps even politically incorrect due to unfavorable conditions on the continent, this will change, she writes. The harshness of the Antarctic climate can be overcome in the same way as in Greenland, and even this harshness may not seem so bad compared to the alternatives that refugees have.

Such perspectives give off surrealism. 2048 year. There is no war. There are two streams going towards each other. To Antarctica ships with refugees. From there ships towing icebergs to dry shores.

The idea of such transportation was first discussed about two hundred years ago. But in 1970-1980, two French scientists Paul-Emile Victor and Georges Mougin took it seriously with the approval and support of Saudi Arabia. In 2009 they resumed their work using computer simulations. According to their calculations, an iceberg weighing 7 million tons can be delivered from the shores of Newfoundland to the Canary Islands in 141 days, and it will be able to drink 35 thousand people with healing moisture all year round. It is not clear why no one in Hollywood has yet made a new dystopia with thriller elements on this topic. He could finally become a prophet.

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Battle for Antarctica. Why scientists believe that the Apocalypse may break out on the white continent - The Times Hub