Will Humans Start Colonizing Mars in Ten Years?

Colonizing Marshas long represented one of the more ambitious dreams for space travelproponents ranging from NASA scientists to Silicon Valley entrepreneur and SpaceX founderElon Musk. The latter also envisions sending humans to Mars sometimes in the next several decades, and has mused about how to build a Mars colony population of 1 million people in anAeoninterview.

Mars One a nonprofit organization based in the Netherlands shares some of the Musks goals and indeed, the Mars One vision relies on Musks SpaceXs Falcon Heavy rocket. ButMars Onesconcept of seeding Mars with human colonies by launchingone-way missions recently received some close scrutiny from a team of MIT researchers.

The MIT teams critique identified potential challenges and estimated that settling thefirst batch of Mars colonists would require about 15 launches of the Falcon Heavy rocket being developed by Musks firm SpaceX at a cost of $4.5 billion. MIT also suggestedthat Mars Onemay want to dial back itsaggressive schedule of sending four-person crews every 26 months starting in 2024.

The MIT paper took a particularly close look at the Mars One idea that it could establish a sustainable colony on Mars using existing technology starting in the 2020s, according toSpace Policy Online. MITs researchers concluded that Mars One was overreaching with its statement that no new major developments or inventions are neededto make such an effort possible. In a Reddit AMA, they also urged Mars One to take a slower-paced approach that field-testedall the necessary habitat equipment on the red planet before sending humans.

We believe this is a time for boldness in space exploration, but there is also a necessary amount of caution, said MITs team, a groupoverseen byOlivier de Weck, an aeronautics and astronautics engineer at MIT.A catastrophe in the early days of Martian colonization may cripple the endeavor in todays risk-averse society.

In 2012, Mars Onefirst proposed sendingMars settlers on a one-way trip to the red planet starting in 2024 a project based on the idea of making such a Mars endeavor into a multimedia reality show. Mars One also envisions first sending robotic missions to set up the crew habitat between 2018 and 2023, before the first humans ever set foot on the red planet.

MITssimulation of the Mars One mission plan highlighted a few areas in particular.

First, the study found that thecost of the permanent colony would grow steadily over time because of the increasing requirement for spare parts spares would account for an estimated 62 percent of mass transported to Mars after almost 11 years of settlement.

Second, the studyidentified a potentialproblem of managing excessive oxygen levels if the Mars One effort grew all its food as crops on the red planet.

Third, it pointed out thatcarrying all food from Earth could bemore efficient than growing Mars crops because of Martian agricultures equipment requirement.

Read the original here:
Will Humans Start Colonizing Mars in Ten Years?