The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist

David Houle

(NOTE: Most of this column is a direct quote from my second book on the Shift Age Entering the Shift Age published in 2012.)

Prior to the development of the communications technologies of the last 200 years, the concept of place was an overriding reality of human life. Where one lived largely determined ones life, as other places could not be experienced without lengthy and arduous travel.This meant that the concept of place was the dominant reality and ones life was largely defined by what one did and experienced in that place. Reality meant physical reality.

Even during the explosive growth of communications technologies such as the telegraph, telephone, radio and television from the 1830s through the 1970s, one had to be in a specific place to communicate with another place. The telegraph office gave way to the telephone at home and at work, both connected to the wall.Radios were large and in the home, as were televisions. The experienced reality was still about places with these electric devices anchored in them.So, one lived in a place, was largely defined by that place, and was connected to the world through these place-based appliances.

No longer.

We now live in a broadband world, the world of connectivity.This new broadband world shows up on screen, from giant televisions to smartphones.

This screen reality can be every bit as compelling as the reality that we physically inhabit.Do we not all check our screens with close to addictive regularity?Isnt how a teenager is perceived at night on social media every bit as important to them as how they are seen in school the next day?

This connectedness, happening at the speed of light, is creating an entirely new place: the noosphere. Our physical reality exists in the biosphere the thin surface of the planet where life exists. But this new, rapidly growing noosphere is the electronic extension of our collective neurological activity. It is a pulsing, cyber-repository of humanitys creative brainpower, knowledge, history, culture, social interactions, entertainment, and commerce.This is a global village vastly more comprehensive and interconnected than Marshall McLuhan could ever have envisioned when he coined the phrase electric village more than 50 years ago. We now live in a two-reality world: the physical reality in which we live and the noosphere reality of the screen that connects us to everything and everyone else on the planet.

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The Shift Age is the first time that humanity has experienced these two realities. These realities will develop at significantly different evolutionary rates. This will cause an incredible transformation of physical reality and of human consciousness.

Often, if not always the future shows up first in the screen reality and then the physical reality. Here is one clear, real-time example of that.

10 years ago I was speaking to dozens of CEO groups and dozens of business conferences every year, These audiences expect a futurist to provide forecasts. Back during the Great Recession, it became clear that online retail was growing dramatically while physical retail was not. As a big fan of Amazon since the late 1990s, I was impressed with their long-term focus on growth and total market share. All the time that financial analysts criticized the company for low or non-existent profits, Amazon always responded that they were focused on the long-term.

At this same time, in an already over-retailed America, retail chains were fighting for anchor positions in new malls, undertaking growth for growth's sake.Basically, physical retail chains were competing against each other in the physical reality at a time when online retail was gaining ever more total market share.

So I looked at that reality and projected rapid growth online with flat to down growth in physical retail. I then, and for several years from 2010-2014 stated that the 2010-2020 decade would be a time of massive contraction in the physical retail space. That was clearly a forecast that came true. Dozens, if not hundreds of retail chains and outlets declared bankruptcy in this decade.

The key lesson to learn here is that, if one operates in physical reality, one must be aware of what is going on in the screen reality. The screen reality has, is, and will reshape our physical realities, business and personal.

NOTE TO READERS: In this space at the Herald-Tribune I write future-focused columns through a local filter. Three months ago, I launched a newsletter that covers many topics not covered here. You can sign up atEvolutionshift.substack.com.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art andDesign. His websites aredavidhoule.comandthe2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist

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The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist