FUTURIST: Post-COVID predictions for now through end of year – Sarasota Herald-Tribune

David Houle| Sarasota Herald-Tribune

This is uncharted territory for all of us.Everyone has opinions.Mainstream media coverage is immediate and shallow.So, to honor the title of this column I submit to you my prognostications for the last nine months of this year.

In several prior columns here I suggested that, unless the Biden administration accelerated the number of vaccines per day over the 1 million they promised before Inauguration Day, we would not begin to approach herd immunity until the fourth quarter of 2021 at the earliest.Given that on recent days the number of shots is three times that, the date might move up to the end of the third quarter.

What this means is thatquarantining will end this summer.The beginning of the rebound thatI wrote about in my mini-ebook that many of you have read will begin in earnest in the fourth quarter.The fourth quarter of 2021 through the same quarter of 2022will be one of solid economic growth. Again, I caution readers to not get caught up in the hype of comparing 2021 with 2020 as last year was a one-time-only event.Economic comparisons of 2021 will be valid when compared to 2019 and 2020 think of the hospitality industry.

In a prior column I suggested that those who refused to get vaccinated would be kept on the outside of many public opportunities.This will become the reality starting in the summer.What that means is that while non-vaxxers may be able to dine in restaurants and attend outdoor events with social distancing, they wont be able to travel internationally, attend many conferences, possibly send their children to school and attend most indoor events.

Right now, the view of international travel is that a vaccine passport, or the showing of a fully vaccinated card from the CDC (I just got my card with my second shot on 3/29)will be essential for any international travel and that wont begin until the late summer at the earliest.Given that so many nations are behind the U.S. when it comes to vaccinations, there will be dozens of countries where one will not be able to travel without such vaccine documentation through the balance of 2022.

I have always had trouble with people who refuse to get vaccinated for the common good of society during the pandemic.I believe in the science of vaccines.It kept me from getting the measles, polio, smallpox and the flu, to name just four.It also taught me that the world is round, that climate change is real and that the tides relate to the moon.The science shows that wearing masks significantly prevents the transmission of COVID-19 and that the vaccines for COVID-19 are effective. Period.

Now that we keep getting ever more facts and polls about the virus ithas been documented that, for many, not getting thevaccine is grounded in politics.Why can I say this?Recent national polling shows that of the people who say they will not get the vaccine, the single largest group 49% of the total are self-described men who voted for Trump.

(I immediately wondered why women Trump voters did not show up in similar numbers.Women, is there something about you that transcends politics when it comes to family health? I have not seen any answer to that question.)

We can choose to disagree. However,I must prepare any of my readers who have chosen not to get the vaccine what is ahead.As referenced above, you will not be able to travel internationally for another year unless you accept the quarantine regulations of the country you will be visiting.That usually means quarantining for five to 14 days, having negative virus tests and informing the government of exactly where you will be traveling in country.Not a good thing if one wants to take a two-week vacation.

In addition, I have read and watched stories of restaurants and other hospitality businesses that so want to open and be safe that they will be asking for proof of vaccination.The exceptions will be the wearing of masks.If you refuse to get a vaccination and refuse to wear a mask, your life will be limited to some degree.Freedom of choice means living with the consequences of that choice. There are consequences to actions that civil society imposes on all of us.Drive while drunk and get caught:DUI and license revocation.That is the way it is.If you choose to not get vaccinated for the virus there will be consequences that will be restricting.

This might make you consider getting vaccinated for the common good.

The obvious person to quote here is John Stuart Mill,the famous 19th century British philosopher who famously said:

The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not sufficient warrant.

Accept this and you will be fine with your decision and the restrictions you have self-imposed on yourself

As this column is being written during the final days of March, when we are all high fiving each other by having gotten our vaccines, warnings are coming from public health officials.The rapid decline of deaths, hospitalizations and new cases from the January peak has now leveled off, and in fact are going up.This is coincidental to Americans travelling a more than at any time since we first locked down. It is also coincidental to some 20 states doing away with mask mandates.The two things health scientists have said would create problems are now doing just that.

We have all gone so long with this virus nightmare, we just need to hang on for a couple more months. I say this because if we have another spike later this spring, then the forecasts of opening up early fall might get pushed back.

As I wrote in my mini-ebook, published 1/1/21: The last 10 months of 2020 were about COVID-19 and the first 10 months of 2021 will be about it as well.

The acceleration of vaccinations now occurring could move that up by a couple of months to August.

This will not occur if less than 75% of the population get vaccinated by theend of summer.Again, it is up to us to put this horrid virus behind us.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written seven books and is futurist in residence at the Ringling College of Art + Design. His website isdavidhoule.com. Email him atdavid@davidhoule.com.

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FUTURIST: Post-COVID predictions for now through end of year - Sarasota Herald-Tribune