Experts Think UBI Is the Solution to Automation. This Year, We’ll Find Out. – Futurism

Automation Boom

Dismissing vague warnings that robots are coming for our jobs is pretty easy. Not so easy? Dismissing hard evidence that theyve already arrived and are doing those jobs better and more cheaply than we ever could.

Those are the facts the workers of the world faced when news broke earlier this year that a Chinese factory increased its production by 250 percent and dropped its defect rate by 80 percent by replacing 90 percent of its human workforce with automated machines. In fact, the transition to machines has been so successful, the plant may soon cut its remaining workforcefrom 60 to just 20 human workers.

Experts are predicting that up to 47 percent of jobs in the United States may be replaced by automated systemsand thats all in the next decade. If thats not enough, manufacturing jobs arent the only ones at risk. Automated systems are proving that they are capable of handling everything from low-skill work like

If thats not enough, manufacturing jobs arent the only ones at risk. Automated systems are proving that they are capable of handling everything from low-skill work like flipping burgers and driving taxis to white-collar professions like managing hedge fundsandpreparing tax returns.

Researcher after researcherhas concluded the same thing automation is going to put a lot of people out of work very soon but what people cant agree on is what we should do about it.

Some, like President Barack Obama, recommend focusing on education and training to prepare people to take on new types of jobs once their jobs are replaced. Others recommend putting systems in place that would make having a job a guarantee.

Still others think a tax on robots could be the solution. Perhaps the most seriously discussed option, however, is universal basic income (UBI).

So what exactly is it?

The idea behind a UBI system is that every member of a society regularly receives a set amount of unconditional money from the government or a public institution. How much money, how often it is given, who supplies it, and other variables are all open to interpretation.

Proponents of such a system say its benefits would be multifold. With so many people expected to lose their jobs in the coming decades, UBI would be a way for the government of a country to ensure it doesnt see a drastic increase in poverty due to unemployment. They point to the encouraging results of past studies in their support of UBI, noting how some trials have revealeda link between UBI and better health, while others have noted a drop in the usage of temptation goods like alcohol and tobacco in societies with a UBI in place, particularly if those societies are in underdeveloped nations.

While notable figures such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Y Combinator president Sam Altman, andeBayfounder Pierre Omidyar have all expressed their support for UBI, just as many people remain on the other side of the debate.

Business mogul Mark Cubansimply called UBI one of the worst possible responses to automation,philanthropist Bill Gatessaid even the richest countries couldnt afford such a system, and the Obama administrationreleased a report stating that job training and job search assistance are much more likely to mitigate the potential unemployment situation than UBI. Others argue that UBI would discourage people from working, wouldnt be enough to lift them out of poverty, and would result inimmigration problems for countries that enact such systems.

Until recently, weve had very few examples of UBI systems to look to for definitive proof of their potential benefits or burdens. Those examples we did have involved smaller groups of people for relatively short durations of time. What we need to move forward are more extensive trials involving larger groups, and thankfully,thats what were finally getting.

This year,Finlandkicked of a two-year UBI trial in which 2,000 randomly selected citizens each receive the equivalent of $587 a month. Each participant wasalready receiving unemployment benefits or an income subsidy from the government that they would lose if they started earning outside income. The hope is that the UBI will encourage those people to take chances on potentially risky job offers, like those at tech startups, knowing theyll still have an income to fall back on.

Once the two-year trial is over, the government plans to compare the data it collects from the 2,000 participants and173,000 non-participants from a similar background to determine if a larger UBI system would be economically worthwhile.

GiveDirectlyis poised to launch the largest UBI program to date this spring. With the support of investorslike Omidyar, the nonprofit will provide UBI to more than26,000 Kenyans, with the total amount dispersed expected to hit around$30 million. The company is spreading the money across200 villages, with recipients grouped into one of three potential systems. Some will receive 12 years of basic income, some will receive two years of it, and others will receive two years worth of income as a single lump sum.

Kenyans in 100 villages will act as the control group against which the results of the trial will be judged. GiveDirectly is hoping to learn a great deal about UBI from the study,including how it affects a persons economic status, willingness to take risks, and their gender relations, particularly in terms of female empowerment.

Canada has its own UBI project set to launch this year. In December, the state legislature of Prince Edward Island (PEI) approved an initiative to test out a UBI program, with leaders of all four political parties in the province approving the measure. The details still need to be hashed out and the plan implemented, but with150,000 citizens, the small Canadian province could prove to be the perfect setting for a UBI pilot program large enough to provide a validsample size but small enough to be logistically feasible.

With so many projects in place, 2017 is being touted as the year well finally find out if a UBI system could work, and really, we have no time to waste. That Chinese factory may have been one of the first, but it certainly wont be the last example of automations superiority in the workplace.

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Experts Think UBI Is the Solution to Automation. This Year, We'll Find Out. - Futurism