NASCAR Best Bets: Motorsports Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Bass Pro Shops Night R – DraftKings Nation

Last week was another big week for the NASCAR Best Bets. Martin Truex, Jr. won at Richmond (+550), and both head-to-head plays easily cruised to the ticket counter. Aric Almirola beat Kurt Busch by 23 positions (-125) and Christopher Bell finished third beating William Byron by 16 positions (-115). This is a new week, but the process does not change. I dug into the the lap-by-lap data and analyzed recent Bristol and Dover full races on YouTube to predict this weeks winner.

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The sports star has never won at Bristol, but that will change this weekend. Larson has been very close to winning at Bristol in the past, but he could not close. Times have changed, Larson is a more experienced driver and hes in much better equipment. Last fall at Bristol, Kyle Busch drove from the back of the field to the lead with ease by working the top groove that other drivers were hesitant to run. Larson is the master of the top line at Bristol and should be able to take the lead easily. In other high horsepower races with moderate-to-high banking this season, Larson has absolutely put a hurting on the field, leading 88% of the laps at Nashville and 66% of the laps at Dover. Both of these tracks are unique in that they are concrete paved, and Bristol is the only other fully concrete track on the circuit.

Last season, when Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch were battling on the final lap, the No. 20 car was one second back. Erik Jones was driving that car, but Christopher Bell is a better driver, a better driver in this package and a better driver at Bristol. Bells crew chief, Adam Stevens, was Kyle Buschs crew chief in that near win in the fall Bristol race, but they did lead the most laps in that race and they did win the 2020 spring Bristol race. Worth noting, is that the No. 18 JGR car and the No. 20 JGR car both failed inspection last fall, but starting in the back did not prevent these cars from getting to the front. JGR, and in particular Adam Stevens, has hit on something with the no-practice setup at Bristol.

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This is a long shot, but this is the rare occasion where a long shot has a legitimate shot at winning. Back in 2016, DiBenedetto showed that Bristol was his best track by finishing sixth in a notoriously underfunded BK Racing car. With better equipment not great equipment he finished second in the No. 95 car for Leavine Family Racing in 2019. He should have won that race but he ran into infamous lapper, Ryan Newman, and Denny Hamlin was able to take the lead late in the race. Last season, DiBenedetto took two tires during the competition caution, but the gamble did not pay off. Despite the gamble not working, that is the type of strategy bettors want to see from longshots. DiBenedetto went two laps down for a loose wheel, but battled back to seventh place late in stage 3 before debris cut down DiBenedettos tire on lap 481 of 500.

Bristol is not Dover, but without practice, bettors have to pick which data points to weigh heavily. The last Bristol race was a year ago, and in that race, Bowman was running inside the top 10 early in stage 3 before he had to pit for a loose wheel. The last race at Dover is much more recent, and while it may not accurately predict a drivers skill at the high-banked half-mile track in Bristol, it should reveal which teams are building the best high horsepower, low downforce race cars. At Dover, Bowman drove to the front and took the lead on pit road. He then cruised to victory in clean air with his Hendrick teammates finishing second, third and fourth.

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NASCAR Best Bets: Motorsports Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Bass Pro Shops Night R - DraftKings Nation