MLB Picks for July 29: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook – DraftKings Nation

Weve got a massive MLB slate to parse through, as we stare down the final Friday in July. Its been a rewarding first four month of the season from a betting perspective, with our record on article plays currently sitting at 48-40. Lets aim to get over 50 winning tickets before the calendar flips to August, shall we?

Heres three wagers Im considering tonight on the diamond.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

This isnt a line that blows me away the Padres playing at home likely deserve to be favored in this spot but the more and more I stare at this game, the more and more I like it for the Twins. First and foremost, Minnesota has been pretty awesome in situations similar to this in 2022, as the teams 52.4% win rate as a road underdog is the best mark in the American League. The Twins have also been far and away the better offensive unit throughout July, with Minnesotas 115 wRC+ in the month the seventh-best mark in baseball. For comparison, San Diego has struggled to a 90 wRC+, a figure that ranks below Oakland and Colorado within the same span.

Then theres our pitching matchup. Blake Snell is the dictionary definition of volatility, mostly due to a ghastly 13.5% walk rate. Basically, Snell doesnt know where his next pitch is going and youll never know which version of Snell is taking the mound on a given night. Theres a reason hes surrendered at least four runs in four of his last eight starts and just two earned runs or fewer in the other four. Its maddening. On the other hand, Joe Ryan is about as steady as they come. The rookie has maintained a 2.89 ERA and a 3.35 xERA across 81.0 innings, even posting a 2.05 ERA so far in July. If I had to trust one of these two hurlers, its not really a contest.

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Is this a trick? Am I missing something? Because I simply can not wrap my head around the long odds on this prop. While Bieber hasnt been his usual self in 2022 in terms of both velocity and strikeout rate hes still managed to be an absolute workhorse. Heck, the right-hander has recorded at least 19 outs in seven of his last 11 starts. Hes two weeks removed from throwing a complete game against the White Sox on just 95 pitches. He missed out on a Maddux thanks to a seventh inning RBI single from Eloy Jimenez, but still, thats impressive stuff.

On that last point, Biebers been able to consistently work deep into games this season because he happens to be one of the leagues most efficient arms. In fact, among all qualified starters, Biebers average of 14.7 pitches per inning is the fourth-lowest in baseball. He doesnt walk anybody, and while a higher zone contact rate means fewer strikeouts, it also translates into quicker batted ball events, saving his pitch count. With the Rays struggling to a .113 ISO and a 94 wRC+ since the All-Star break, I think Bieber will have little issue finding the seventh inning once again.

Julio Urias has been really good this season. Well, hes been really good pitching anywhere but Coors Field. To wit, in the two starts the lefty has made at altitude in 2022, Urias has surrendered nine runs (six earned) and 12 hits across 7.1 innings of work. Not exactly the pristine box scores were used to seeing from the 25-year-old.

However, Urias issues make sense. Not only is he dealing with the most well known park factors in all of baseball, but the Rockies have been fantastic at punishing left-handed pitching since Opening Day. The team enters play on Friday owning a .283 average and a .784 OPS within the split both sitting as the best marks in the National League. Thats overall splits, too. The numbers only get better when you isolate the at-bats that take place in Colorado, where, unsurprisingly, the Rockies lead everyone in OPS (.813) and wOBA (.353). At Coors, at plus-money, Im taking this bet every time.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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MLB Picks for July 29: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook - DraftKings Nation