MLB Picks for July 29: Apple TV+ Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook – DraftKings Nation

Tonight features the last pair of Apple TV+ games before we hit the Trade Deadline, where the landscape of baseball could change dramatically. We kick it all off at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the Tigers visiting the Blue Jays and then the Cubs at the Giants. Below, Ill give two plays from each game that I like and will sweat along with all throughout the evening.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

This article originally appeared on MLB.com: Here are 4 wise wagers for tonights Apple TV+ games

I expect the Blue Jays to get out to a quick start against the Tigers tonight. Facing Bryan Garcia is the reason, as hes struggled mightily during his time in the Majors. Designated for assignment earlier this season, Garcia has posted a 7.55 ERA and an xERA of 8.36 in 39 games out of the bullpen. Hes allowed 10 home runs through 39 1/3 innings and lefties have really hit him hard, tagging him with a .499 wOBA. With this being his first start, its likely hell be used as an opener, although he has made three starts in Triple-A this season. This Tigers bullpen will also be shuffling around roles a bit, as one of their most reliable relievers in Andrew Chafin did not make the trip due to his vaccination status.

Given his struggles in the Majors, the Blue Jays could realistically hit the over on this total before Garcia exits. This Blue Jays offense has been cooking since the All-Star break ended, averaging 9.3 runs per game. Of course, this total is inflated due to the 28 runs put up against Boston, but theyve also scored at least five runs in four of the six games theyve played. Give me the Blue Jays getting off to a quick start here tonight and scoring at least three runs before we get to the sixth inning.

I like Manoah to go deep in this game. To win this bet, he needs to pitch at least 6 1/3 innings, something hes done in seven of his 19 starts. Im not expecting the Tigers to give him much pushback, as they currently own the lowest wOBA (.261), wRC+ (67), and ISO (.101) against righties. This Tigers offense is full of free swingers, as their walk rate is the third lowest at 6.5%, while also sporting one of the highest K% at 24.2%

Manoah has been downright untouchable almost the entire season. Its quite impressive when you look at his 2.77 ERA for the month of July and thats currently the highest its been for any month in 2022. When this is statistically considered the worst month of the season and yet youre holding opposing hitters to a .211 average and a .259 wOBA, I think youre doing just fine. Give me a lengthy start from Manoah against this Tigers club with at least 19 outs recorded.

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This total through the first five innings feels a bit high, so Im looking at the under. After a rough start to open the season, Marcus Stroman has really settled in as a Cub. Despite a clunker against the Cardinals before missing some time, Stroman has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Its even more impressive that hes doing this while inducing ground balls at the lowest rate weve seen in his career at 46.3%. For reference, Stroman has ended each season above 50% and even saw as high as 64% in 2015. Nonetheless, Stroman continues to limit the damage. Hes also at his best the first time through an order, as he has a 2.54 ERA with a .227 wOBA.

Alex Cobb hasnt seen the consistency weve seen from Stroman but hes also at his best the first time through the order. His 1.93 ERA in that scenario shows that, to go with a .277 wOBA. Both Stroman and Cobb start to struggle the second time through but ideally, were coming close to closing out this bet once that happens.

I do like the Cubs to go over their 3.5 team total in this game. The biggest weakness for the Giants lately has been their bullpen and this is where I think the Cubs will get the offense going. Since coming out of the All-Star break, the Giants bullpen has a combined 7.00 ERA with a 5.1 BB/9. If you think this is too small of a sample, we can stretch this even further to the entire month of July. Doing that shows a 5.73 ERA, and a 5.2 BB/9. This has been a major hole in the Giants as of late and getting the Cubs to go over 3.5 runs feels plausible. The Cubs offense hasnt exactly been a juggernaut this month, but they are averaging 5.2 runs since coming out of the break. If this bullpen does more of the same, I think the Cubs can go over this total.

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MLB Picks for July 29: Apple TV+ Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook - DraftKings Nation