UFC Vegas 38 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker – Sports Betting Dime

Thiago Santos takes on Johnny Walker in the main event of UFC Vegas 38 in Las Vegas. Can Santos take down Walker as the favorite?

After being in front of a sold-out crowd at the T-Mobile Arena last weekend, the UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 38 on Saturday, October 2nd, 2021. In the main event, light heavyweights collide as Thiago Santos looks to snap his losing streak as he battles flashy striker Johnny Walker. Santos is narrowly favored at -170 to beat Walker in the UFC Vegas 38 odds.

UFC Vegas 38 airs live on ESPN+ with the main card at 7 PM EST. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.

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All odds as of Sept. 27 at DraftKings

Thiago Santos enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, but he has been fighting elite-level competition, including taking Jon Jones to a split decision for the belt. Against Jones, he tore both his knees, which kept him out for over a year, and after that, he lost to Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. Johnny Walker, meanwhile, has all the hype in the world, and if he can beat Santos, hed be right there for a title shot.

When Walker was fighting Anderson, he had all the hype in the world, and many were talking about him giving Jon Jones trouble. Yet, Anderson showed the Brazilian doesnt have the best chin, and Krylov exposed his wrestling as he held the Brazilian down for 15 minutes. Even in his win, Spann dropped and hurt Walker a few times, which is a concern against a heavy hitter in Santos.

Although Santos is on a three-fight losing streak, he did nearly KO Teixeira, and against Jones, he had some success. Prior to the setbacks, though, he showed off his KO power but finishing the now-champ in Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders.

Thiago Santos is a former middleweight who has since moved up and has become a full-size light heavyweight. The Brazilian has legit one-punch KO power as at middleweight he even holds stoppage wins over Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith.

Early on, I expect Walker to come out aggressive and look for the KO shot. Santos, meanwhile, will be patient and use his leg kicks and jab to try and find his range to land the KO shot. I do expect Walker to have some moments in the first round and win it. However, in the second round, Santos will start to become the aggressor and catch Walker with a big shot. I expect Santos to finish him with ground and pound to win by TKO. Santos to win inside the distance by KO or TKO will have much better value than his moneyline odds at UFC Vegas 38.

Pick: Thiago Santos (-170)

Kevin Holland was the star of 2020 going 5-0 but in 2021, he was outwrestled by Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori showing a big hole in his game in his takedown defense and his jiu-jitsu off his back. Now, he faces an unranked fighter in Daukaus who could be fighting for his UFC job.

The first couple minutes of this fight should be able to tell you how it will go. Theres no question Daukaus will shoot for a takedown early, and if he gets it and Holland cant get off his back, it will be another loss for Holland due to his wrestling. Yet, if he does stuff it, he is the better striker and will be able to piece up Daukaus on the feet.

Ultimately, I dont think Hollands takedown defense has improved enough to stop the takedowns of Daukaus. I expect Daukaus to shoot for the legs early and often to control the fight and win a decision.

Pick: Kyle Daukaus (+130)

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Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN and MMA News, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.

NFL NBA MLB NHL MMA

Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN and MMA News, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.

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UFC Vegas 38 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker - Sports Betting Dime