How to live bet NBA basketball: Tips, strategies to beat the in-game lines – Sporting News

Not long ago, sports bettors had few options when wagering on NBA games. For the most part, you could evaluate the odds and put down some action before things tipped off or at the start of the second half. In the past few years, sports betting has evolved to a point where live betting at virtually all points during games has increased in popularity and is now commonplace.

Novice bettors arent always comfortable live betting, nor do they understand the best tactics to beat the in-game lines. Below, well break down three worthwhile strategies to help bettors understand the live betting process.

In a nutshell, live betting, or in-game betting, allows bettors to make wagers on games after the game has started. Live betting odds will fluctuate throughout the course of a game with changes to the moneyline, point spread, and total occurring after every shot taken. While there arent as many options for bettors in live betting markets as there are pre-game, the following bet types exist at most, if not all sportsbooks:

Moneyline:Simply, a wager on which team will win the game. A moneyline bet, in essence, is an implied win probability. For example, a team whose live odds sit at -150 implies it wins said game at a 60-percent clip. If youre curious about what odds correlate to what implied win probability, check out this moneyline converter from Boyds bets.

Point Spread: A wager on the difference in the number of points between the two teams at the end of the game.

For example, a -3.5-point favorite in an NBA game must win the game by four or more points in order to win the bet. Conversely, an underdog can lose the game outright, but if it stays within the point spread, the bet still wins. Betting on an underdog of +3.5 points in an NBA game will win if the team loses by three or fewer points.

Total:Also referred to as the over/under, a total bet is a wager on the number of points scored relative to the over/under line. If a total on a game is set at 215.5 points, a wager on the over means 216 or more points must be scored in order to win the bet. A wager on the under of 215.5 total points means 215 or fewer points must be scored in order to win the bet.

In terms of navigating legal U.S. sportsbooks to make live bets, all sportsbooks have their live betting odds under a tab titled "live" or "in-game." The live odds will refresh on their own, and sometimes its a challenge to get your bet in before the live markets alter.

While live betting is not an exact science, understanding these concepts can help bettors gain an advantage in winning their bets.

Utilize the closing line as a marker: The closing line is the last line available before betting markets close prior to tip-off. Historical data has shown that the closing line is the best indicator of the outcome of a game. This makes sense, as more information (injury status, sharp betting money, etc.) becomes known as game time approaches, which causes the moneyline, point spread, and total to sharpen up.

For example, in Game 1 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat closed as consensus five-point favorites after opening as shorter two-point favorites. The Celtics were without two key starters (Marcus Smart, Al Horford). Smart and Horford have an impact on the implied win probability for the Celtics, and without them on the court, the Heat have a better shot of winning the game outright and by several points.

Given the volatility in NBA games, the Heat found themselves trailing by 13 points with 5:37 remaining in the second quarter. If making a live bet on this game utilizing the closing line as a marker, at that point the Heat were around a +6.5-point underdog. Making a live bet on the Heat +6.5 made sense. The Heat erased the double-digit deficit, winning the game 118-107 and covering the closing line of -5 points.

Its important to note that sometimes the closing line can be a misleading marker, primarily when injuries occur, which brings us to our next tip.

Monitor in-game injuries: In-game injuries can present opportunities to take advantage of live odds. When a key player goes down mid-game, it takes a bit of time for the live odds to factor in that players impact on the money line, point spread, and total.

Back in the first round of the 2022 Western Conference playoffs, Suns guard Devin Booker left Game 2 against the Pelicans with a right hamstring injury. At the time of the injury, the Suns trailed the Pelicans 77-74 with 4:47 remaining in the third quarter. Following the injury, the Suns were unable to come back, losing by a final score of 125-114.

A star like Booker obviously stands out more, but even a key role player could have a big effect on a team's ability to maintain a lead or come back from a deficit. You don't want to jump to conclusions and immediately live bet as soon as you see a player down on the floor for a few seconds, but you also shouldn't completely ignore the telltale signs of a serious injury either.

Sometimes, you'll get burned, like when Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum both looked seriously injured -- only to return minutes later -- during Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but if youre paying close enough attention, taking advantage of how an in-game injury will impact the final score can be a profitable endeavor.

Understand teams rotations: With NBA games being 48 minutes in length, there are times in which teams star players and starters are not on the floor. Coinciding with utilizing the closing line as a marker, a double-digit difference, say, early in the second quarter, of an NBA game doesnt mean the trailing team is in panic mode.

This allows for an opportunity to make a live bet, likely on a pre-game favorite thats trailing, knowing it will bring back its key players for the more important stretches of the game. This is especially true in the postseason, where starters play extended minutes, particularly in the second half when theyre needed most.

Live betting brings an entirely different way to wager on NBA games. It allows you to adjust to new information that might not have been available (or widely known) before tip-off.Sticking to the basic live-betting strategies above should help you cash some tickets and enjoy a more dynamic betting experience.

View post:

How to live bet NBA basketball: Tips, strategies to beat the in-game lines - Sporting News