5 Space Exploration Imperatives To Hit By 2030 – Forbes

Spacecraft Orion on orbit of Earth planet. Spaceship in space. Expedition to Moon. Artemis program. ... [+] Elements of this image furnished by NASA (url: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_feature/public/thumbnails/image/iss060e007297.jpg https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/image_card_4x3_ratio/public/images/719829main_Orion_Arrays_02_full.jpg)

The year 2030 sounds a bit like science fiction. But here we are only a little more than seven years from that auspicious date and were still waiting for a human return to the Moon and a human mission to Mars. Were almost a third of the way through this new 21st century. Thus, Id argue that its time we started living up to at least a few of our science fiction-esque aspirations.

Here are five space exploration goals that we need to hit by decades end.

-- A human return to the Moon with some sort of South Pole permanent lunar toehold.

Its already 2022 and NASAs Artemis program has been pushed back by a combination of Covid and a change in the American presidential administration. The earliest projections for Artemis to land a crew on the lunar surface at this point is no sooner than 2025.

Artemis should just be the beginning of a human presence on the Moon, that should see some sort of permanent fixture in the form of an outpost thats not necessarily even permanently occupied but which can be accessed from a lunar-orbiting gateway. Whether that turns out to be the gateway thats been touted for the last decade by both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), or something thats less ambitious remains to be seen. But such a gateway could serve as both a refuge and staging facility for human missions to and from the surface.

- An honest and realistic timeline for a public private partnership to send astronauts to Mars.

Its very doubtful that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be able to do a human-rated Mars launch by 2030. But by decades end, its still possible to have a solid, funded plan for a future human mission to Mars. 2040 is probably more realistic for launching astronauts to Mars, assuming the Mars transfer craft would use nuclear-powered engines capable of getting a crew to Mars within 4 to 6 months.

I would opt for a boots on the ground surface mission with some sort of Mars orbital gateway in place to serve as a sanctuary for astronauts heading to and from the surface. Such a Mars gateway could be in place by 2035, well in advance of a late 2030s launch of a four astronaut Mars crew.

A close up image of an astronaut on Mars kneeling and looking at a rocket in the distance. The ... [+] spaceman or spacewoman is dressed in full space suit viewed from behind, kneeling on rocks and looking into the distance at Mars base camp and rocket in the distance.

Although many wonder why we should expend the effort to send humans to Mars for a surface stay of only 30 days, its an inevitability that is long overdue. We dont have to necessarily colonize Mars. But its within realistic reach of our technological spaceflight capabilities at present and like climbing Mount Everest, it would test our mettle as a species.

In many ways, having a comprehensive understanding of Mars is key to having a comprehensive understanding of our geological and evolutionary history here on Earth.

A crewed NASA mission to Mars is now not thought to be possible before 2037, however.

- A credible interstellar precursor mission that would test new propulsion technologies.

I personally am not a fan of tiny laser sail interstellar propulsion technology. Instead, I say lets make a concerted effort to build next generation space propulsion technology that would enable an end-of-century human-rated voyage to the solar systems far distant Oort Cloud. The Oort Cloud is a very wide massive body of leftover cometary debris thought to orbit our solar system at distances of up to three light years.

Astronauts wont make the Oort Cloud anytime soon. But theres no reason why we cant launch a precursor interstellar probe by 2030. NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) worked on several interstellar precursor mission ideas in the 1990s and should return to that effort. Even so, as I noted here previously, a $2 billion spacecraft bound for 200 A.U. (astronomical units) or Earth-Sun distances is far enough out to get a real notion of the pristine interstellar medium. And its also likely that ground-controllers could track the spacecraft out to 1000 A.U.

If our robotic probes and eventually we humans are to ever travel to the stars, we need to be launching a plethora of robotic probes with the imperative being that each new spacecraft is faster than its predecessor. Only then will we bridge the distance gap between the inner and outer solar system.

- The launch of an orbital mission to Pluto

NASAs New Horizons flyby mission to the dwarf planet Pluto and the Kuiper Belt inspired us all with its exquisite display of speed, navigation and timing. Kudos to all involved. But New Horizons also opened a scientific Pandoras Box at Pluto. That one mission forever changed planetary sciences view of Pluto from an inscrutable, out of focus blob into a surprisingly geologically active terrestrial ice world just begging to be explored.

Thus, it only makes sense to send a combination robotic orbiter and small rover to Pluto. The mission would be equipped with enough science instruments to totally rewrite the textbooks yet again. With a nominal year-long orbital mission circling Pluto, the missions rover could be sent to sample the surface in situ and relay its data to the orbiter for relay back to Earth.

Given such a missions estimated $3 billion cost and the likely need for technology development, the mission would likely not see launch until 2035. But by 2030, it could be fully funded and under construction.

- The launch of a sample return mission to the dwarf planet Ceres.

Although flyby missions to Enceladus and Europa are often touted as the easiest way to find signs of extant microbial life in our own solar system, given our present technology, the launch of a combination orbiter and sample return mission to the relatively nearby dwarf planet Ceres is doable by the end of this decade.

A $3 billion sample return mission could land at the dwarf planets geologically compelling Occator Crater. A Main Belt 950-km-diameter asteroid, located about two A.U. from Earth, Ceres may have hosted a mudball interior that could persist to this day. NASA estimates that some 35-km below its icy surface, Ceres may still harbor a muddy mixture of liquid and rock. If so, a lander mission to Ceres could, in theory, return a pristine 100-gram sample for analysis back on Earth.

Even if Ceres ends up not having evidence for extant or past life, planetary scientists could learn much by sampling one of the oldest planetary bodies in our inner solar system and pave the way for more robotic surface exploration of our Main Asteroid Belt.

Artists concept of the Dawn spacecraft entering orbit around the dwarf planet Ceres. In late ... [+] November 2015 Dawn will descend to its closest orbit around Ceres at a distance of about 230 miles. While no close-up observations of yet been made of Ceres itself, here it is rendered as appearing similar to a much smaller version of the Earths Moon, heavily cratered with the addition of surface water ice and hypothesized plumes of ice crystals from water geysers on its surface. In February 2015 the unmanned Dawn spacecraft is scheduled to arrive at the dwarf planet Ceres. The 65 foot long, 2.5 ton probe was launched from the Earth in 2007, passed Mars in 2009, and went into orbit around the protoplanet Vesta in July 2011 where it stayed until September 2012. Once in orbit around Ceres, Dawn is expected to operate for about a year making observations of this largest object in the asteroid belt.

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5 Space Exploration Imperatives To Hit By 2030 - Forbes