Peter Diamandis: The worlds biggest problems are the worlds biggest business opportunities – The Hustle

***

You can listen to this interview on Spotify, Apple or your favorite podcast player.

***

The XPRIZE Foundation has a straightforward pitch: it organizes competitions in which the winning team gets a large cash prize for innovation breakthroughs.

Since launching its first competition in 1996, XPRIZE has awarded ~$300m including:

Who is the mind behind XPRIZE?

Peter Diamandis: a graduate of MIT and Harvard Medical School, the 60-year old has spent decades at the cutting edge of technology. His efforts have attracted the leading minds in innovation with James Cameron, Larry Page and Ray Kurzweil all on the XPRIZE board.

Earlier this year, Diamandis partnered with Elon Musk on a $100m XPRIZE for carbon removal technology.

In addition to founding the XPRIZE, Diamandis co-founded Singularity University, runs a $500m VC fund and has launched 20+ companies in the longevity, space, and education industries. He also writes extensively on innovation (check out his newsletter here).

An area that Diamandis is spending more time on is human longevity, which he believes is one of the worlds biggest business opportunities (if you want to make a billion dollars, help a billion people).

In a recent interview with The Hustle, Diamandis covers the longevity opportunity and discusses a number of interesting topics from Bitcoin to the space race to common traits of successful entrepreneurs:

(The interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity)

***

Aging is a disease that can be slowed, stopped, and even reversed.

[Medical conditions] like cardiac, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases. These are all correlated with aging. The more you age, the higher probability of these [conditions].

David Sinclair a professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School deserves absolute credit [for bringing this concept to the public].

His book Lifespan is an amazing book which I promote more than I do my own books. If you havent read it, you should go out and get that book.

Theres a few things to point out.

First of all, look at 100,000 to 1,000,000 years ago when we were early hominids evolving on the savanna of Africa. You would go into puberty at age 13 because there was no birth control back then. So by the time you were 14, you were pregnant.

By the time you were 26, 27, 28, you were a grandparent. Your kids were having kids. Back then, food was scarce, right? There was no McDonalds. No Whole Foods.

The worst thing you could do for the perpetuation of the species was steal food from your grandchildrens mouths. The best thing you could do [for the survival of your progeny in a scarce world] was die.

So we didnt really live past age 30. If you had a disease that would kill you in your 40s, 50s, or 60s, it was never selected against. We didnt have evolutionary forces for a long-lived life.

The second thing [is genes]. Im 60 now and have the same genes as when I was 20. Why dont I look like I did at 20?

It turns out, its not your genome sequence. Rather, its which of your 30k genes is turned on and which has turned off. That is called the epigenome. Epi means above the genome. Its a control and your epigenome determines which genes should be on and which should be off.

The challenge is as you get older some of the wrong genes are on and some of the wrong genes are off and that is principally whats driving aging.

Theres a lot of different approaches to addressing [the root causes of why people age].

When I think about the biggest markets for entrepreneurs or investors on the planet, its AI and longevity (or biotech). There are no bigger markets.

Ive long said that the worlds biggest problems are the worlds biggest business opportunities and if you want to make a billion dollars, help a billion people.

Heres one of the problems. Up until now, everyone considered aging inevitable, and just part of life. But what if it isnt inevitable? What if aging is something that can be slowed, can be stopped. That would be extraordinary.

I spend a lot of time in [the longevity space]: 80% of my investments are in this space and I run a community called the Abundance 360 Summit, where I coach some 400 CEOs and leaders. The most popular topic is longevity every year.

Theres biotech, which is drugs, small molecules or cells being used to impact health.

Within biotech, there are 4 areas:

When we are born, our placenta is an organ that generates all these stem cells. I think of it as a 3D printer that manufactures the baby. After were born, we have a large supply of stem cells and those stem cells are there to repair damage (make new skin, nerves, muscles or whatever is required).

But as we grow older, our supply of stem cells diminishes radically. Like ten thousand fold or a hundred thousand fold. So you have less stem cells in your body to really solve any damage.

We use a vaccine that turns your immune system on to create antibodies that target a specific protein in your body. Its a way of treating chronic disease for pennies on the dollar (or a thousand times cheaper than other biologics).

Our DNA is a language of four nucleotides represented by ATCG. We have 3.2B from each of our parents. CRISPR allows us to go in there and edit and correct a single nucleotide, which a lot of times can be the cause of a genetic disease.

The gene could be an additional copy of whats there. It could be a copy thats a gene thats missing or an alternate version of a gene that you already have.This plus genome sequencing plus genome writing is really moving at exponential speeds.

Then there is medtech, which is AI, robotics, sensors, networks, and so forth.

[Im co-authoring] a book with Tony Robbins that comes out in February 2022 that looks at all of these things in very understandable language.

What Im focused on right now is how do I add at least a decade of healthy life this decade?

Along with AI, the technologies that I mentioned (stem cells, vaccines, gene therapy) are making a dent in the longevity universe.

David Sinclair and George Church [a Harvard PhD geneticist] believe that we can get to 120 years old. Maybe 150.

Now Im 60. If I make it to 120, Im intercepting 60 more years of advances, and I guarantee you that were going to slay aging probably in the next 20-30 years at the outmost.

A phrase that I use from [futurist and Singularity University co-founder] Ray Kurzweil is living long enough to live forever.

Your job isnt to make it all the way to 120. Its to live an extra 20 years for the purpose of getting to the impact of quantum computing and AI on these areas.

Theres a concept that Ray Kurzweil has popularized: longevity escape velocity.

Its the notion that today for every year that youre alive, science is extending your age by a 1/4 year.

Now, the question is when will we get to the point where for every year youre alive, science is extending your life for more than a year?.

Ray Kurzweil predicts that its within the next 12 years. And his predictions are pretty good. George Church has said he thinks its within the next 10 to 15 years. So its the same timeframe.

Ultimately, what wouldnt you pay for an extra 20-30 healthy years of life.

This is not slobbering in a wheelchair. This is where you have the aesthetics. You look great. The cognition. Youre thinking clearly with the mobility to move around and enjoy those extra years.

And what would you do with an extra 30 years of healthy life or more?

Lets dismiss the overpopulation myth.

When the book The Population Bomb was written [1968], things looked dire [on the overpopulation front]. This is like 50 years ago. Back then, the average was something like 5 children per family globally.

Today, weve dropped from ~5.5 children per family globally to a reproduction rate of ~2.4 children per family in the United States. Were below the replacement rate which is 2.1 children per family in Japan. And many parts of Europe are below the replacement rate. China, India and Africa have all come down.

I was interviewing Elon Musk in April. We were launching a $100m XPRIZE he funded.

He basically said the biggest problems hes concerned about is this notion of under population, with the human race going out with a whimper where we dont have the labor to support our ongoing capabilities.

So, it turns out longevity is critically important to continue to have the labor there as [the population] peaks in 20 years and then declines.

One last thing: there was a study done by Oxford and Harvard recently that said for every year of life we add on the average, the global economy increases by $38 trillion. Thats the impact of one extra year of healthy life for the world.

When youre at the top of your game and youre earning the most and youre able to make the best impacts and youve got the best relationships[you dont have to retire]. What happens if youve got the energy and vitality to not only go but accelerate.

Are these things going to be affordable for everybody? The kinds of treatments that were talking about dont cost a lot and definitely will not in the volume were speaking of.

Ray Kurzweil tells a great tale.

He says, you know, the cell phone came out in the 1980s and back then it was the size of a briefcase. It costs tens of thousands of dollars. And you drop a call every block in Manhattan. I mean, it really sucked. So, you know, back when it first came out, when it didnt work well, all the wealthy people paid for it. And today, there are more cell phones on the planet than there are humans and theyre cheap and they work extraordinarily well.

Its always been the case that, yes, the wealthy will be the first movers to some degree, but by the time the bugs are worked out, its cheap and available to everybody.

One of the biggest challenges with longevity is that people typically plan to live until 80 or 90. What happens if youre living for another 30 years [after you retire at 60]? What happens to Medicare or Medicaid or Social Security?

Well, I think were going to have to move the retirement age if people are healthier for longer. When Social Security was put in place, retirement age was set [based on the average age someone died, which is much less than it is now and in the future].

We need to realize we need to plan for a longer life. And thats part of this future were moving into.

[Since the start of COVID], everybody thinks theyre absolutely brilliant because their stocks, real estates and assets are all going up.

[These gains are the] result of pumping unlimited amounts of capital into the US and global economy to the point where its ridiculous and were devaluing dollars at a rate that people just dont understand.

[Also, were moving to a place where were] living longer and were digitizing the global economy. I think Bitcoin is a fundamental cornerstone of a long-lived and exponentially digitized world.

One of the big questions is how much should you invest?. This is my humble opinion and Im not an economist, but Im moving as much of my dollars into Bitcoin. Im probably 80% Bitcoin and 20% Ether.

When I can get 4%-8% interest rates on [crypto exchange] Abra for my crypto, rather than sticking it in the bank for 0% and deflationary pressuresthats insane.

When you digitize something in the early days of that digitization, the first step in the progress is slow. Its deceptively slow.

Take Kodak. The first digital camera was 0.01 megapixels. Next year, it was 0.02 megapixels. Then 0.04 and then 0.08. It all looked like zero to the executives at Kodak. And they ignored the digital camera. But 30 doublings later, it was a billion times better. Right? And you had 10 megabit cameras and film was dead.

When you digitize something, its slow and deceptive in the beginning, then its disruptive.

And then it demonetizes, dematerializes and democratizes access to products and services.

So thats exactly whats going on: Bitcoin digitized assets and capital. Its been slow and deceptive. Over the next 10 years, its going to enter the disruptive phase and its going to demonetize and democratize all these areas.

Our brains are local and linear and we think in a local and linear fashion. Ultimately, you have to realize that (and this is worth memorizing) if you:

So where are you in that process on that exponential road?

And theres so much social pressure for [Bitcoin]. So much human justice pressure and so much convenience pressure.

Bitcoin really got a lot of its initial launch out of the 2008 financial crisis and crisis tends to cause industries to shift.

2008 was a critical time. You saw Uber and Airbnb, and really the early days of cryptocurrency being born there.

[Now] the COVID crisis, which led to massive inflationary pressures as capital floats into the global economy and is accelerating [the adoption of Bitcoin]. So I think Bitcoin is more necessary than ever before.

Deceptive: Once something is digitized, its initial period of growth is deceptive because exponential trends dont seem to grow fast at first. Doubling .01 only gets you 0.2, then 0.4, and so on. At this phase, everything looks like zero. But exponential growth really takes off after it breaks the whole-number barrier. 2 quickly becomes 32, which then becomes32,000before you know it.

Disruptive: The existing market for a given product or service is disrupted by the new market that the exponential technology creates because digital technologies outperform in terms of cost and effectiveness. Once you can stream music on your phone, why buy CDs or records? If you can also snap, store, and share photographs, why buy a camera and film?

Demonetized: Money is increasingly removed from the equation as the technology becomes cheaperoften to the point of being free. Software is less expensive to produce than hardware and copies are virtually free. You can now download any number of apps on your phone to access terabytes of information and enjoy a multitude of services at costs approaching zero.

Dematerialized: Separate physical products are removed from the equation. Technologies that were once bulky or expensivecameras, GPS, phones, mapsare now all in a smartphone that fits in your pocket.

Democratized: Once something is digitized, more people have access to it. Powerful technologies are no longer only for governments, large organizations, or the wealthy.

Theres nothing else that I can think of [other than Bitcon]. I mean, maybe super high value real estate. But if you want something thats got liquidity and transferability, theres just one.

Its always on the menu and the answer is we will [have one]. Im just trying to figure out what would be the best there.

There is probably going to be prizes that were going to launch in which a token economy and cryptocurrencies are the solution that will win those prizes.

In 1994, I get a book from a friend of mine. Its called The Spirit of St. Louis and it was written by Charles Lindbergh. In this book, Lindbergh talks about the fact that in 1927, he flies from New York to Paris to win a $25k prize.

As I dug into this prize, I realized this guy, Raymond Ortega puts up $25k (which is today about $5-6m). He offers it to anyone who can fly between Paris and New York. And 9 different teams go after it.

They spend $400k trying to win the prize [which is] 16x the prize money.

I think, Oh my God, this is amazing, you only pay for success and theres no downside.

So I came up with the idea of the XPRIZE and X was going to stand for the name of the person, putting up the $10m.

I launch it in 1996, under the Arc of St. Louis without having the money and without having the teams. I rolled the dice. I met Anousheh Ansari, who had just sold her company for $1.3B and was a fellow space cadet.

She funded the $10m prize and we called it the Ansari XPRIZE in her honor.

[It was won by Burt Rutan, who was funded by Paul Allen] in 2004. Richard Branson came in and bought the rights to spaceship.

They have two independent visions that I both love.

Read more from the original source:

Peter Diamandis: The worlds biggest problems are the worlds biggest business opportunities - The Hustle