Buckle up! 2022 is going to be a big one for the Supreme Court | TheHill – The Hill

The late Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgBuckle up! 2022 is going to be a big one for the Supreme Court Roberts calls for judicial independence in year-end report The top political books of 2021 MORE once observed that its hard not to have a big year at the Supreme Court. However, there are some years that are bigger than others. Thats what 2022 is likely to be.

The court has accepteda series of transformative caseswith few available exit ramps. It recently added to that list.

In other words, it is likely to issue historic rulings on abortion, gun rights and an assortment of other issues.

The fact that the Supreme Court is going to hand down such decisions in a major election year is also noteworthy. The court tends to be more conservative in the selection of cases before major elections, but 2022 will put the court at ground zero in one of the most heated elections in history.

For thosecalling to pack the courtto ensure a liberal majority, the already furious commentary is likely to reach near hysteria if the conservative majority rules as expected in some of these cases in the first half of 2022.

Heres just a partial list of what is coming in the new year:

Abortion

The country isawaiting a decisionby June inDobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization. At issue is whetherMississippi can impose a 15-week limit on abortions. That is earlier than previously allowed by the court, but the United States is one of only seven among the worlds 198 countries to allow abortions after 20 weeks. While the court could simply overturnRoe v. Wadeand return the area to the states, it is more likely that the court will increase the authority of the states while recognizing constitutional protections for such reproductive rights. That could result in a major reframing of previability cases.

AfterDobbswas accepted, advocates sought to enjoin a Texas law that banned abortion after just six weeks. The courtruled 5-4to allow the Texas law to be enforced. The Biden administration and other litigants then forced a reconsideration of that decision. The court as expected allowed the appeal to go forwardfor some of the litigants in the lower court but again refused to enjoin the law. To make matters worse, it declared the Biden administrations appeal to be improvidently granted.

Gun rights

If Dobbs is a frightening thought for abortion advocates,New York State Rifle and Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruenis a virtual heart attack for gun control advocates. In thelatest badly drafted gun lawto go before the court, New York has forced a challenge that could result in a major ruling reinforcing individual rights under the Second Amendment. The casedeals with theSullivan Actof 1911, giving local officials discretion over who can carry concealed guns based on a showing of proper cause.Bruenis likely to reinforce rights for concealed carry permits negating a host of laws across the country.

Agency deference

While not often discussed with the matinee cases of the term, one case on the docket could bring sweeping impacts across various areas from the environment to financial regulations to public health.American Hospital Association (AHA) v. Becerraraises a highly technical question of a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services rule that cut outpatient drug reimbursements to hospitals. The rule is based on an agency interpretation of vague statutory provisions an interpretation that was defended under the deference afforded to agency decisions.(Notably, the court has accepted a variety of other cases that could curtail agency authority, including West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, which could also curtail efforts on climate change.)

The case is technically aboutoutpatient carefor Medicare Part B recipients; however, for some justices, particularly Samuel AlitoSamuel AlitoBuckle up! 2022 is going to be a big one for the Supreme Court No, Congress should not codify 'Chevron deference' Give me liberty and give you death MORE and Neil GorsuchNeil GorsuchBuckle up! 2022 is going to be a big one for the Supreme Court Your 2021 holiday dinner political survival guide To uphold the rule of law, US Supreme Court must act in Texas death penalty case MORE, it is all about Chevron and agency deference.Chevron USA Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council Inc. is a 1984 administrative law case that has come to embody the role of federal agencies in not just enforcing but creating law. The Chevron Doctrine has insulated agency decisions for decades from substantive review, giving federal agencies an overwhelming degree of authority in our system of government.For some of us, the dominance of federal agencies has become equivalent to a fourth branch of government. The question is whether a critical mass has formed on the court to substantially curtail that decision. If so,AHA v. Becerracould be a torpedo in the water for the Chevron Doctrine.

New cases

With these and other important cases on the docket, it is hardly necessary to add anything new to such a momentous year. Yet the court is not done by a long shot.

At the end of 2021, the Supreme Court dove into the raging debate over vaccine mandates. It ordered an expedited argument in three such cases forJan. 7. The appeal raises the legality ofthe emergency temporary standard issued by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration requiring a vaccine-or-test mandate for private employers with more than 100 employees. The case, again, raises core issues of agency deference as well as federal authority in this area. Courts have split on what White House Chief of Staff Ron KlainRon KlainBuckle up! 2022 is going to be a big one for the Supreme Court Experts say COVID-19 cases don't tell whole story Democrats like what they saw in Harris-Charlamagne tha God exchange MORE admits wasa workaround of the limits on the presidents authority.

The court is still mulling the case ofStudents for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College, a Title VI case in which Harvard University is accused ofrigging its admissions processagainst Asian American students. Its the flip side of past racial preference cases in college admission, an area that has remained amorass of fractured or conflicting decisionsfor the court.

This is just a partial listing of what is coming in the new year.

It is perhaps not surprising that Democratic members of Congress and liberal groups are threatening the justices of consequences or even a revolution if they do not vote with the left of the court. Such threats, however,may backfire. Not only is Chief Justice John Robertsthe most popular public official today, but evenliberal justices have chafedat the claim that this is a conservative or biased court.

The new year will test the design of our constitutional system in insulating the court from such public pressures, even directthreats to the court or individual justicesfrom politicians.

With some of the most important decisions coming by June 2022, there will be plenty of time to weaponize the opinions for the midterm elections.

Former President and Chief Justice William Howard Taft once observed thatpresidents come and go, but the Supreme Court goes on forever. That may be reassuring to some justices as the Supreme Court enters one of the most existential years of its history.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. You can find his updates on Twitter@JonathanTurley.

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