Cop 26: Areas of North Wales that could be under water within nine years – North Wales Live

Alarming maps have revealed the parts of North Wales which could be underwater in less than 10 years.

Huge swathes of the regions coastline are threatened by rising sea levels and flooding as early as 2030.

The maps on this page are projections based on the current trajectory of climate change.

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Even if this months COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow results in sweeping and immediate cuts to carbon emissions, several areas in North Wales will still be vulnerable to sea flooding.

They include Glaslyn estuary near Porthmadog, much of which was reclaimed from the sea by the towns Cob.

So too are coastal areas near Pwllheli and low-lying land around Shell Island, Gwynedd.

Without further climate mitigation, huge swathes of the North Wales coast could periodically find themselves under water within nine years.

Earlier this year, oceanographers at Bangor University warned rising sea levels could cut off the A55 and wash away the North Wales Coast railway by the end of this century.

Important economic infrastructure, such as Deeside Industrial Estate, and several Snowdonia holiday resorts could also be swamped.

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However Climate Central, a non-profit news organisation focused on climate science, now claims the risk of flooding could be three times higher than previously forecast.

It has used advanced models of coastal elevations, and peer-reviewed projections for future flood levels, to map areas forecasted to be most vulnerable to coastal flooding and storm surges.

While Climate Central warn there is always some error, the maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk.

Its maps are not a prediction of areas that will be swallowed by the sea: instead, they indicate those at greatest risk.

2030 maps, for predicted sea levels and annual storm surges, show much of the Wirral peninsula under threat.

At greatest risk is land on the Wales side of the border, including Sealand, Garden City and Deeside industrial park.

Much of the area is on flat land reclaimed from the head of the Dee estuary, which by the 18th century had become heavily silted-up.

Also at risk, further along the estuary, is Sealand industrial estate, Broughton shopping park and parts of Chester, once a major port for the Romans.

Queensferry, Shotton and parts of Connahs Quay fall within the danger zone too.

In fact, a strip of coast running all the way to Talacre is coloured red, indicating sea incursion at least once a year.

Other infrastructure under threat includes the North Wales Coast railway and the A494, a major transport conduit in and out of Wales.

This is a stretch of coastline that is already defended, with current and future plans to increase its resilience to flooding.

One flaw of the Climate Central maps is the absence of non-US data for existing or planned sea walls.

The result is an amplified projection of future flooding. This confirms what we already know that low-lying places like Talacre, Prestatyn, Rhyl, Towyn, Kinmel Bay and Pensarn are extremely vulnerable to future flooding without sea defences.

So too is the North Wales Coast railway.

At greatest threat is land west of the River Clwyd. At Pensarn and beyond, Climate Central expects annual flooding to be affecting the A55 within nine years.

Ever since marshlands fronting Llandudno Bay were redeveloped as a holiday resort, in the 19th century, the potential for flooding has always been an issue.

Latest plans include new timber groynes to stop beach erosion.

Its one of several flood defence schemes in various states of progress in Conwy county: others include a 300ft breakwater in Penrhyn Bay, a raised beach and one-way prom at Rhos-on-Sea and a phased approach in Colwyn Bay as funding becomes available.

Along the estuary, reclaimed farmland in the Conwy Valley is already used as flood over-spills. By 2030, Climate Central expects this to become an annual occurrence, with the swollen waters affecting parts of Llanrwst.

The A55 and coastal railway face more threats from the sea as they travel along the north Gwynedd coast.

Malltraeth Marsh, stretching from Angleseys western coast beyond Llangristiolus and the A55, was reclaimed from estuarine marshland in the early 19th century.

After the construction of Malltraeth Cob, Afon Cefni was canalised in 1824 and it became possible to grow crops on the land.

The system required constant maintenance, and by the Second World War it had fallen into disrepair, devastating post-war harvests.

Although the areas network of embankments was subsequently improved, local farmers are again witnessing ever more frequent incursions.

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By 2030, Climate Central predicts the entire marsh will be at risk of annual inundation.

Low-lying land east of the marsh is not under immediate threat.

However longer-term projections, based on runaway climate change, suggest the entire island could be cut in two.

This wide flat valley of Traeth Mawr was once the Glaslyn estuary before the Porthmadog Cob was built.

Effectively, this sealed off the estuarys mouth, enabling the land to be reclaimed for farming.

As sea levels rise, this land is under threat of abandonment. Already, some local farmers complain that one-in-100-year floods have become a regular occurrence.

Low-lying land towards Harlech and down to Llanbedr, is also coloured red in Climate Centrals 2030 maps, indicating annual flooding within nine years.

Further south, beyond Barmouth, lies Fairbourne, one of the cause clbres of the climate debate.

Originally salt marshes, its defended by a sea wall that is becoming unsustainable to maintain, given predicted sea level rises.

Fairbourne is expected to be abandoned between 2052 and 2062 or possibly as early as 2042 if the seas rise faster than the 0.5 metres predicted.

The estuary has extensive salt marshes with a network of mudflats and river channels.

As such it has been designated a Special Protection Area for wild birds, with large numbers attracted to its feeding grounds.

On its western flank, RSPB Cymru runs the Ynys-hir reserve.

Much of this, and the sand dunes of Ynyslas, could find itself under water at least once a year by 2030, according to Climate Centrals projections.

This inundation could continue along the estuary as far as Machynlleth.

Also identified as being at risk is the resort of Tywyn, its vulnerable flat land continuing inland beyond Bryncrug and Llanegryn.

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Cop 26: Areas of North Wales that could be under water within nine years - North Wales Live