WASHINGTON Top U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been surprised and unsettled by the problems that have hampered his military in Ukraine, issues that will make it more difficult for Russian forces to control the country.
But Mr. Putin is determined to succeed in Ukraine, and will try to double down and use ever more brutal tactics, the officials said during an appearance before the House Intelligence Committee.
Americas intelligence agencies, which before the attack released information on Russias troop buildup and war plans, will work to highlight Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the information war that helped rally the West to impose tough sanctions on the country, the officials said.
Before the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the war would be relatively quick, allowing him to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told lawmakers.
Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraines resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues, Ms. Haines said.
Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate even more forces than Russia has committed to the fight, she said.
Some allied intelligence services believe that Mr. Putins early military problems could cause him to readjust his plans to take control of the whole country, and stop his advance after he captures Kyiv, particularly if military officers highlight how many additional forces it will require to secure Ukraine.
But diplomats are also quick to add that they are not sure how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the situation. At the hearing, Ms. Haines said Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his campaign, despite his militarys logistical problems.
Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks, Ms. Haines said, and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO.
Given the problems the Russian military has faced, and the rising will of Ukraine to fight, intelligence officials predicted the war would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an ugly next few weeks.
I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now, Mr. Burns said. He is likely to try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties, he added.
Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said there was a limit to how long Kyiv could hold on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. With supplies being cut off, it will become somewhat desperate in, I would say, 10 days to two weeks, General Berrier said.
Other estimates are similar. Some allied governments believe Russia will finish encircling Kyiv in a week and, given the strength of Ukraines resistance, the city may be able to hold out for another month, a European diplomat said on Tuesday.
March 15, 2022, 5:21 a.m. ET
While the intelligence chiefs said Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns said it would be incorrect to view his actions as crazy.
The Russian leaders increasing isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him extremely difficult to deal with, Mr. Burns said. Without aides willing to push back, Mr. Putin entered the war misunderstanding the will of Ukraine to fight back and the West to take action.
Germany, for example, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would have allowed imported Russian natural gas to bypass Ukraine; sent weapons directly to Ukraine; and expanded its defense budget.
Hes been unsettled by Western reaction and allied resolve, particularly some of the decisions that the German government has taken, Mr. Burns said. I think hes been unsettled by the performance of his own military.
American journalist killed. Brent Renaud, an award-winning American filmmaker and journalist who drew attention to human suffering, was fatally shot while reporting in a suburb of Kyiv. Mr. Renaud, 50, had contributed to The New York Times in previous years, most recently in 2015.
General Berrier said he had low confidence in reports of Russian casualties, but put Moscows losses at 2,000 to 4,000.
Mr. Burns said the American government was keeping a close eye on Mr. Putins domestic support. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and independent reporting on the invasion essentially being made illegal, it will take time for Russians to absorb the consequences of Mr. Putins actions.
But, over time, funerals of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will have an impact, Mr. Burns said.
You also see, in relatively small numbers, a lot of very courageous Russians out on the street protesting, Mr. Burns said. Something like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which is not a small thing in a deeply repressive society like Russia.
Other governments said another crucial factor is whether Mr. Putins support within the military erodes. Before the invasion, Russian officers complained about the plan, according to intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlins planning now continues, the European diplomat said.
The intelligence community will expand its information war with Russia, working to expose Moscows war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines said. American spy agencies were working with other agencies to document Russian actions in Ukraine, including war crimes, and to hold the perpetrators accountable.
Russian forces are at the very least operating with reckless disregard for the safety of noncombatants, as Russian units launch artillery and airstrikes into urban areas as they have done in cities across Ukraine, Ms. Haines said.
Such an information campaign to expose Russias attacks on civilians and other missteps would build on the intelligence released before the invasion, which sought to expose Russias war plans, rally allied support for tough financial sanctions and deny Moscow the chance to create a false pretext for an attack.
Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the National Security Agency, said that the United States had closely tracked three or four Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that reinforced Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.
In terms of why they havent done more, I think thats obviously some of the work that the Ukrainians have done, some of the challenges that the Russians have encountered and some of the work that others have been able to do to prevent their actions, General Nakasone said.
Here is the original post:
U.S. Intelligence Tells Congress Putin Is Unlikely to Be Deterred - The New York Times
- Russia and Putin's Ukraine war may have been preventable - MSNBC [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Boris Johnson warns of 'even darker days ahead' over Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Sky News [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- PayPal suspends its services in Russia over Ukraine war - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russians Face Sanctions and Anxieties of a Costly War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Invasion Brings Russia Global Repudiation With Cold War Echoes - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Trump renews NATO criticism after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and also says "vote counter" can be more important than candidate - CBS News [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Shunned by Others, Russia Finds Friends in Africa - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia's War With Ukraine Is Already Costing Russian Economy - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia threatens to block VOA unless it removes Ukraine invasion coverage - Axios [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia appears to have no way out as Putin goes all in - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- With Sanctions, U.S. and Europe Aim to Punish Putin and Fuel Russian Unrest - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russian Prisoners and Ukrainian Soldiers Describe Two Sides of the Conflict - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- How China Embraces Russian Propaganda and Its Version of the War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Accounting firms KPMG and PwC to exit Russia - Reuters [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia's war on Ukraine is dire for world hunger. But there are solutions - NPR [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Blinken vows to escalate sanctions on Russia but warns war could last some time - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Visa, Mastercard to suspend operations in Russia - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Opinion | The Cancellation of Mother Russia Is Underway - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Dont Believe Its a War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Inside the U.S. Race to Arm Ukraine Against Russia - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine live news: Zelenskyy says sanctions not sufficient - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- As Biden predicts Russia will invade, U.S. rushes weapons ... [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia seizes Ukraine nuclear plant - msnbc.com [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- US and Allies Will Strip Russia of Favored Trade Status - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Honeywell CEO says suspending business in Russia wont be a major headwind - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- What is the threat of a 'cornered' Putin as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on? - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- How Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches Are Handlng the War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia's wars in Chechnya offer a grim warning of what could be in Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia's Ukraine invasion and space impacts: Live updates - Space.com [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russia. Invasion. And Polands Very Long Memory. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- The letter Z is becoming a symbol of Russia's war in Ukraine. But what does it mean? - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Can the west slaughter Putin's sacred cash cow? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Analysis: Can the UAE be a safe haven for Russian oligarchs? - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now - Reuters [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war LIVE UPDATES: Zelensky calls on Russian troops to surrender - The Australian Financial Review [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Ukraine-Russia war live updates: Ukrainians claim Russian strikes have hit apartment building in Kyiv, China denies claims Russia asked for military... [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- A Conductor on Why He Stayed in Russia After the Invasion Began - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Could Putin actually fall from power in Russia? - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- My mother says I am betraying Russia: Putins invasion divides the generations - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Lukashenko dodges and weaves over joining Russia in attacking Ukraine - POLITICO Europe [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Once, cultural ties to Russia were deliberate and hopeful. Now, they're eroding - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- China's reputation is at risk if Beijing were to help Russia in its war on Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Why is India standing with Putins Russia? - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 20 of the Russian invasion - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia Maps & Facts - World Atlas [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia keeps up attacks in Ukraine as two sides hold talks - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Invasion jolts Russia's friends in tiny West-leaning Moldova - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine: Ugly truths in the time of war - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine will lower car production by millions of units over two years, S&P says - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How much can and will China help Russia as its economy crumbles? - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- 400 Companies Have Withdrawn from RussiaBut Some Remain - Yale School of Management [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia sanctions Biden and Blinken in retaliation for US sanctions - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Without sending troops, the U.S. wages 'hybrid warfare' against Russia - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia's bombing of Ukraine hospital reflects a terrible wartime pattern : Goats and Soda - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Why Russia's attempt to bend Ukraine to its will could have the opposite effect - MSNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How close are China and Russia and where does Beijing stand on Ukraine? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How China's Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Could Upend the World Order - TIME [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Uneasy wait in Kyiv continues as Russian advance appears to have stalled - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (March 16) - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia may aspire to a China-style internet, but it's a long way off - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia claims its close to a PEACE DEAL after Putins ... [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Renault Halts Operations in Russia - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia is considering selling its oil and gas for bitcoin as sanctions intensify from the West - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russias War, Driven by the Grand Theory of Eurasianism - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- More Russian Mercenaries Deploying to Ukraine to Take On Greater Role in War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russias Neighbors Are Worried That, After Ukraine, Theyll Be Next - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia May Nationalize Carmakers' Assets amid Ukraine Invasion - Car and Driver [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Indians reluctant to denounce Russian brothers over Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Is the Ukraine war weakening Putins position in Russia? - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 33 of the Russian invasion - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (March 27) - NPR [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russian Soldiers Suffering Frostbite as Ukraine Invasion ... [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia's military is under pressure in Ukraine and refocusing on the east is likely to be a bloody campaign - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]
- Will Western-Russian Confrontation Shake the Middle East? - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]
- Russia will 'always' be a part of OPEC+, UAE energy minister says - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]