The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West – The New Yorker

On his visit to Poland last weekend, Secretary of State Antony Blinken walked fifteen feet into Ukraine, as snow began to fall, to meet briefly with its foreign minister. It was symbolic of the Biden Administrations deliberately calibrated policygoing up to the border, but not beyondto avoid any move that the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, could perceive as provocative. For everything were doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war, with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe, Blinken told Meet the Press the next day, from Moldova. Yet, just two weeks into the war, the U.S. increasingly fears being drawn into a war with Russia. The undercurrent to frantic diplomacy and waves of U.S. military deploymentsthousands more troops dispatched to Europe, Patriot-missile batteries to Poland, and B-52 bombers flying over Central Europeis the palpable fear that the unthinkable is now thinkable.

On Tuesday, a new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia will pursue its interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine and other countries in its near-abroad. In testimony on the Hill, William Burns, the C.I.A. director and a former Ambassador to Russia, was pressed about Vladimir Putins intent. Hes not going to stop at Ukraine, correct? asked Representative Jackie Speier, of California. Burns replied, Thats what makes it more important than ever to demonstrate that hes not going to succeed in Ukraine. The stakes, Burns acknowledged, are bigger. This is one of those pivotal points where we and all of our allies and partners need to act.

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Since Russias invasion, the besieged Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly warned the West about the danger that Putin would target other European nations. Everyone thinks that we are far away from America or Canada. No, we are in this zone of freedom, Zelensky said in a television interview, on Monday. And, when the limits of rights and freedoms are being violated and stepped on, then you have to protect us. Because we will come first. You will come second. Because, the more this beast will eat, he wants more, more, and more.

The U.S., however, pushed back this week on key military requests from Ukraine, for fear of Russias reaction. Putins reckless offensive has forced the U.S. to adopt awkward policy positions. On March 5th, Zelensky made an impassioned appeal to members of the House and Senate for more military aid, notably help in obtaining Soviet-era warplanes that Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly and that could balance Russias air superiority. On Wednesday, the Pentagon rejected an offer from Poland to turn over twenty-eight MIG-29 fighter jets to U.S. custodyflying them to a base in Germanyfor transfer to Ukraine. U.S. intelligence officials assessed that an American role in a transfer may be mistaken as escalatory and could result in significant Russian reaction that might increase the prospects of a military escalation with NATO, the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, told reporters. U.S. involvement was deemed to be high risk. The majority of Ukraines warplanes are still intact, a senior Defense Department official added, while acknowledging that Russias surface-to-air missiles now have an umbrella that covers virtually all of Ukraine.

The Administration cited the same fears about Zelenskys request for help from NATO in establishing a no-fly zone over part of Ukraine to protect civilians. We also have to see to it that this war does not expand, Blinken said on Wednesday, at a joint press conference with his British counterpart. Our goal is to end the war, not to expand it, including potentially expand it to NATO territory. Otherwise, he warned, its going to turn even deadlier, involve more people, and I think potentially even make things harder to resolve in Ukraine itself.

On Thursday, Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, acknowledged that the U.S. is now in a uniquely challenging position. We are obviously providing enormous amounts of support to the Ukrainians, as we should and need to do, she told the Senate Intelligence Committee. But at the same time trying not to escalate the conflict into a full-on NATO or U.S. war with Russia. And thats a challenging space to manage.

Yet, at each of his four stops in NATO countries near Russia, Blinken heard dire predictions about the broader Russian threat beyond Ukraineand the need for the U.S. to do more. In Riga, on Monday, the Latvian Foreign Minister, Edgars Rinkvis, lamented to Blinken, We have no illusions about Putins Russia anymore. In Vilnius, the Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, turned to Blinken and said, Deterrence is no longer enough. We need more defense here, because otherwise it will be too late here, Mr. Secretary. Putin will not stop in Ukraine; he will not stop. And in Tallinn, on Tuesday, the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, said that NATO countries need to adapt to the new reality of a very aggressive Russia and permanently strengthen their defenses in the air, on land, and at sea. Pressed on what specifically countries on Russias borders needed, she replied, Everything.

Eastern European countriesnotably those once allied with, or part of, the former Soviet Unions empirehave long warned of the potential for Russian aggression. We, the Poles, are already tired of reminding everyone: We told ya so, Marek Magierowski, Polands Ambassador to the U.S., told me in an interview this week. He cited the forewarning by the late Polish President Lech Kaczynski during the Russian invasion of Georgia, in 2008. Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrowthe Baltic states and later, perhaps, time will come for my country, Poland, Kaczynski had said.

Magierowski added, We have never had any doubts whatsoever about Vladimir Putins neo-imperial ambitions. Putin has been waiting for this window of opportunity for years, he said. He convinced himself that the West is weak, divided, wallowing in a decadent mood. He thought the free world wouldnt care about Ukraines fate, as it didnt care about Czechoslovakias in 1938, when Europe tolerated Nazi Germanys annexation of the Sudetenland. Putin, he told me, is similarly emboldened because the West was tragically lenient and outrageously complacent after Russia murdered the defector Alexander Litvinenko, in 2006; invaded and annexed Crimea, in 2014; helped destroy the Syrian city of Aleppo, in 2016; reportedly used chemical weapons to poison the former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, in 2018; and poisoned the opposition leader Alexey Navalny, in 2020. Over the past three decades, Eastern Europeans have often encountered skepticism of their view of Putin as the U.S. and Western Europeans, notably the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, advocated dealing pragmatically with Russia.

During his European trip, Blinken repeatedly promised that NATO, this time, would prevent further Russian expansion. We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power, he vowed, in Estonia. But U.S. experts worry, too, about an unintended incident triggering a wider war, like the spark that ignited the First World War, a conflict that dragged on for four years and killed tens of millions. Russias invasion of Ukraine could easily escalate into a larger conflict stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea and further west into Europe, Thomas E. Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned in a new report issued on Tuesday. It might not matter what the U.S. does, he wrote. Crippling sanctions could provoke Putin to lash out with greater violence, Graham cautioned. But, if NATO appeared restrained, Moscow could be tempted to press militarily even further into Europe to enlarge its sphere of influence. The rippling impact of broader Russian aggression would stress the geopolitical, economic, and institutional foundations of the international order created after the Second World War, Graham wrote.

Given the Russian leaders history, Angela Stent, a former National Intelligence officer and the author of Putins World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest, is worried about a miscalculation. The concern we have to have immediately is that the war in Ukraine doesnt inadvertently spread to Poland or Romania by some unforeseen clash, which would then have to involve NATO in a war with Russia, she told me. Stent also worries about Putins intentions short of war. You can use nonmilitary means to disrupt societies. And hes already been doing that for the past couple of decades. As the Russian leader grows increasingly cornered, she added, he will seek to exploit popular sentiment in countries like Serbia, where a pro-Russia march to support the war was held last week. The new U.S. intelligence assessment warns that Russia will employ an array of tools to undermine the interests of the U.S. and its NATO allies. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises whenever it sees an opportunity, it concludes.

On Wednesday, the Biden Administration issued a forceful denial after Russias bizarre claim that the U.S. and Ukraine were developing chemical and biological weapons. The State Department spokesperson, Ned Price, said that Moscow has a long track record of accusing the U.S. of the very crimes that Russia is perpetrating. These tactics are an obvious ploy by Russia to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attacks, he said.

Russia, as the aggressor, still has the upper hand. But, for the U.S. and its allies, the one positive sign is that the performance of the Ukrainian military has exceeded expectations. Russian forces have fallen far short of Putins goal of a swift seizure of Kyiv and the ouster of Zelenskys government. The first two weeks have, instead, been grinding for Moscow. U.S. intelligence estimates that between two thousand and four thousand troops fighting for Russianot all of them Russianhave died in the first two weeks. The bravery of Ukrainians, so far, has prevented the worst-case scenario.

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The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West - The New Yorker