Despite ongoing peace talks, an end to Russias war on Ukraine appears nowhere in sight.
And as Ukrainian cities are being attacked, a quieter pressure is growing in Russia, which is increasingly isolated on the international stage.
Punishing sanctions are taking effect and dissent which authorities are determined to crush is rising, reportedly even in the Kremlin.
As the war rumbles on, observers are asking: is Vladimir Putins position shaking?
The Russian president enjoys a solid level of support among legislators, as evidenced by a recent vote days before the war began to recognise the separatist, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics of Ukraine.
Of 450 members of the Duma, 351 backed the move, in line with Putins approval.
At the same time, Putins United Russia party has been accused of vote-rigging, keeping him in power for more than 20 years.
However, some observers have suggested that with sanctions hitting the economy hard, a push to remove Putin from power may gather pace.
Volodymyr Ishchenko, a Ukrainian sociologist who has studied revolutions in the post-Soviet arena, disagrees.
I dont think that the revolution is the likeliest outcome of the sanctions, he told Al Jazeera, arguing that increased grievances are not enough to start a revolt.
Rather, a split among the elites, unity of the opposition, coordination and mobilisation structures were needed.
In the early 20th century, the Russian Empire went through two revolutions linked with unpopular wars one in 1905 after the humiliating defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05, and another in 1917 during World War I.
After the Soviet collapse, other newly-independent republics went through a string of popular uprisings, with governments overthrown in Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova. There were three revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and three more in Ukraine.
Putin has spent a large part of the past two decades preparing himself against a so-called colour revolution such as the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, which he thought to be planned from Washington.
This includes marginalising opposition figures such as the now-jailed Alexey Navalny, whose political movement has been outlawed but continues to operate and is helping organise the protests.
As for the opposition, its in a bad shape, Ishchenko said. Navalnys movement is repressed. Besides, the opposition is split by the war. The Communists and many other parties who could ally with the opposition strongly support the war now.
Ishchenko told Al Jazeera that the exodus of mostly anti-war Russians estimated to be more than 200,000 people since February has made mass revolt even more unlikely.
Such a scenario would require exiles to keep effective contact with their homeland, which may prove difficult as travel is restricted and Russians without VPNs are blocked from social media.
The palace coup is more likely than a revolution now. Although, I am not sure that a possible elite conspiracy against Putin would make a move before a major defeat in Ukraine.
So, in the end, the balance of forces on Ukrainian battlefields would determine the possibility of either a coup, or revolution, or the survival and consolidation of Putins regime. Not the other way around.
If not a mass uprising, perhaps the oligarchs and officials in Putins inner circle, frustrated at the sanctions and unable to enjoy their yacht cruises off the south of France, may try to unseat the president.
On March 1, the independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova said sources within the Russian elite close to Putin had told her that they were as shocked at the start of the war as everyone else, with one describing the situation as a clusterf**k.
The sources reportedly claimed that Putin has grown out of touch with reality over the past two years, isolating himself in a bunker and only meeting face-to-face with his closest confidants.
But after that initial shock, Russian elites are accepting the new reality, Rustamova, who has worked for the BBC Russian service and independent outlets TV Rain and Meduza, told Al Jazeera.
Many have now made their peace with it, she said. Theres a sense that theres nothing that can be done, and until this ends they need to survive somehow. They cant leave, because if you resign or refuse to work during wartime, youll be a traitor, and everyone knows what Putin does to traitors.
After coming to power, Putin quickly reined in the oligarchs, who had dominated Russian business, media and politics in the 1990s. He called the countrys top tycoons to a meeting and warned them to stay out of politics.
Those who did not comply, such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Boris Berezovsky, were either imprisoned, forced to leave, or both. Those who made their fortunes in the 1990s and were allowed to stay largely accepted the status quo. They have little sway over the Kremlin.
While its logical to expect an anti-war position from the liberal side of the Russian elite, Putin has thoroughly cleansed them over the years and keeps them on a tight leash, and they certainly wont step forward, Rustamova said.
Putin, an ex-KGB officer, instead surrounded himself with security officials and installed loyalists in key positions, such as Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard tasked with domestic security. But he has made sure none of these so-called siloviki, or men of force, gets too powerful: the Federal Security Service (FSB) and military directorate (GRU) handle intelligence, while the Federal Protection Service are the presidents bodyguards.
According to political scientist and Russian armed forces expert Pavel Luzin, There is a kind of political sect that consists of some generals and other high-ranking officers around Putin and they believe in the restoration of the Russian Empire it is a type of religion for them.
Then, there are acting and former law enforcement officers who were engaged in mid-level business within the state-owned and formally private corporations before the Russian aggression, and they are losing almost everything today; there are the armed forces, who were not happy about the aggression because they understood the awful consequences; and the police, who do not have much influence.
He said that the Kremlin was scared of the army and the police, and does not trust either one.
In this way, I dont wait for Putins forced departure within the current circumstances. The situation may change in case of a further escalation.
The siloviki may also be afraid of catching the blame if the war goes horribly wrong.
There have been unconfirmed reports that Colonel General Sergei Beseda of the FSB has been placed under house arrest after apparently telling Putin that the war in Ukraine would be a quick victory. Speculation was also rising over Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had not been seen in public for almost two weeks. As rumours swelled, he was shown on state media again on Thursday attending a video meeting of officials, including Putin.
But aside from people power, a businessmans revolt or a military coup detat, Luzin suggested a fourth possibility: as Russias social and fiscal woes grow as a result of the war, local government and bureaucrats, previously sidelined, will be left to pick up the slack while Putin allegedly sits in his bunker, detached from the world.
Briefly speaking, Putin has distanced himself from the governance. In this way, the bureaucracy may start to act without Putin, just ignoring him, Luzin said. If this type of action will be realised, the results will change the Russian political regime even without any coup.
See the rest here:
Is the Ukraine war weakening Putins position in Russia? - Al Jazeera English
- Russia and Putin's Ukraine war may have been preventable - MSNBC [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Boris Johnson warns of 'even darker days ahead' over Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Sky News [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- PayPal suspends its services in Russia over Ukraine war - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russians Face Sanctions and Anxieties of a Costly War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Invasion Brings Russia Global Repudiation With Cold War Echoes - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Trump renews NATO criticism after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and also says "vote counter" can be more important than candidate - CBS News [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Shunned by Others, Russia Finds Friends in Africa - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia's War With Ukraine Is Already Costing Russian Economy - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia threatens to block VOA unless it removes Ukraine invasion coverage - Axios [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia appears to have no way out as Putin goes all in - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- With Sanctions, U.S. and Europe Aim to Punish Putin and Fuel Russian Unrest - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russian Prisoners and Ukrainian Soldiers Describe Two Sides of the Conflict - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- How China Embraces Russian Propaganda and Its Version of the War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Accounting firms KPMG and PwC to exit Russia - Reuters [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia's war on Ukraine is dire for world hunger. But there are solutions - NPR [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Blinken vows to escalate sanctions on Russia but warns war could last some time - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Visa, Mastercard to suspend operations in Russia - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Opinion | The Cancellation of Mother Russia Is Underway - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Dont Believe Its a War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Inside the U.S. Race to Arm Ukraine Against Russia - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine live news: Zelenskyy says sanctions not sufficient - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- As Biden predicts Russia will invade, U.S. rushes weapons ... [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia seizes Ukraine nuclear plant - msnbc.com [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- Russia - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2022]
- U.S. Intelligence Tells Congress Putin Is Unlikely to Be Deterred - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- US and Allies Will Strip Russia of Favored Trade Status - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Honeywell CEO says suspending business in Russia wont be a major headwind - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- What is the threat of a 'cornered' Putin as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on? - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- How Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches Are Handlng the War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia's wars in Chechnya offer a grim warning of what could be in Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia's Ukraine invasion and space impacts: Live updates - Space.com [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russia. Invasion. And Polands Very Long Memory. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- The letter Z is becoming a symbol of Russia's war in Ukraine. But what does it mean? - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Can the west slaughter Putin's sacred cash cow? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Analysis: Can the UAE be a safe haven for Russian oligarchs? - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now - Reuters [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war LIVE UPDATES: Zelensky calls on Russian troops to surrender - The Australian Financial Review [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Ukraine-Russia war live updates: Ukrainians claim Russian strikes have hit apartment building in Kyiv, China denies claims Russia asked for military... [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- A Conductor on Why He Stayed in Russia After the Invasion Began - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Could Putin actually fall from power in Russia? - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- My mother says I am betraying Russia: Putins invasion divides the generations - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Lukashenko dodges and weaves over joining Russia in attacking Ukraine - POLITICO Europe [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Once, cultural ties to Russia were deliberate and hopeful. Now, they're eroding - NPR [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- China's reputation is at risk if Beijing were to help Russia in its war on Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Why is India standing with Putins Russia? - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 20 of the Russian invasion - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia Maps & Facts - World Atlas [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Russia keeps up attacks in Ukraine as two sides hold talks - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 15th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 15th, 2022]
- Invasion jolts Russia's friends in tiny West-leaning Moldova - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine: Ugly truths in the time of war - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine will lower car production by millions of units over two years, S&P says - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How much can and will China help Russia as its economy crumbles? - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- 400 Companies Have Withdrawn from RussiaBut Some Remain - Yale School of Management [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia sanctions Biden and Blinken in retaliation for US sanctions - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Without sending troops, the U.S. wages 'hybrid warfare' against Russia - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia's bombing of Ukraine hospital reflects a terrible wartime pattern : Goats and Soda - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Why Russia's attempt to bend Ukraine to its will could have the opposite effect - MSNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How close are China and Russia and where does Beijing stand on Ukraine? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- How China's Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Could Upend the World Order - TIME [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Uneasy wait in Kyiv continues as Russian advance appears to have stalled - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (March 16) - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia may aspire to a China-style internet, but it's a long way off - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Russia claims its close to a PEACE DEAL after Putins ... [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2022]
- Renault Halts Operations in Russia - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia is considering selling its oil and gas for bitcoin as sanctions intensify from the West - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russias War, Driven by the Grand Theory of Eurasianism - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- More Russian Mercenaries Deploying to Ukraine to Take On Greater Role in War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russias Neighbors Are Worried That, After Ukraine, Theyll Be Next - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia May Nationalize Carmakers' Assets amid Ukraine Invasion - Car and Driver [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Indians reluctant to denounce Russian brothers over Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 33 of the Russian invasion - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (March 27) - NPR [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russian Soldiers Suffering Frostbite as Ukraine Invasion ... [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2022]
- Russia's military is under pressure in Ukraine and refocusing on the east is likely to be a bloody campaign - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]
- Will Western-Russian Confrontation Shake the Middle East? - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]
- Russia will 'always' be a part of OPEC+, UAE energy minister says - CNBC [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2022]