Britain and Europe forced to play Russian roulette with Putin’s gas – Telegraph.co.uk

It would be reasonable to question some of the robustness around the ESOs assumptions on interconnectors, said Adam Lewis, partner at energy trading company Hartree Solutions.

How certain can we be around the European markets to say they are not going to have their own supply issues this winter?

If we look at gas at the moment, it's a global issue. It's not a UK issue or even a European issue. We are all fighting for the same gas, and arguably, there could be a situation where we are all fighting for the same electricity.

In a separate outlook published on Thursday, National Grid said it also expects gas markets to balance this winter, predicting a fall in demand as wind turbines replace gas-fired plants. It does not offer a cost expectation.

As with electricity imports, price is king when it comes to making sure pipes from Europe are flowing in the right direction.

Russia, meanwhile, appears to be in a good position, riding a double supercycle of high oil and gas prices.

Gas prices are regulated here, notes Ron Smith, a senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, based in Moscow. Its about 14/15 times lower [than in Europe].

Russian fertiliser producers are in a really good position as the price of gas hasnt changed. And you have European producers having to shut down.

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Britain and Europe forced to play Russian roulette with Putin's gas - Telegraph.co.uk