Boston College vs. Virginia Odds & Picks: Should the Eagles Really Be Favorites in Charlottesville? – The Action Network

Get betting tools used by pros

TRY FOR FREE

Jeff Hafleys first season in charge of Boston College has been a legitimate success. The Eagles are 7-4 on the season with all four losses coming against ranked opposition.

The Virginia Cavaliers (4-4) have been the definition of average in Bronco Mendenhalls fifth season. The Cavs are in a look-ahead spot with a game against in-state rival Virginia Tech next Saturday, but the Hoos will need to take the Eagles seriously if they want to finish the season above .500.

The days of Boston Colleges ground-and-pound attack are long gone. The Eagles brought four of their five starters back on the offensive line but have run the ball for only 3.3 yards per attempt this season.

Instead, BC is now finding success through the air with Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. Jurkovec has thrown for 7.6 yards per attempt and has developed a nice connection with wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Hunter Long, as the two have combined for 97 catches, 1,288 yards, and 11 touchdowns this season. Jurkovec was banged up in BCs last game, but he is probable for Saturday.

Virginia has struggled to defend the pass this season, so I expect Jurkovec will be able to throw the ball all over the yard in Charlottesville.

Jeff Hafley was brought over to improve the Eagles defense, but so far that has not been the case. Boston College is allowing 5.7 yards per play and ranks 106th in Defensive Success Rate, per College Football Data.

Boston Colleges defense has particularly struggled against the run, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt and ranking 110th in Defensive Rushing Success. Virginias ground game grades out as average, so Boston College will need to improve if they are going to hold the Cavaliers in check.

The Eagles struggles arent limited to stopping the run. They have also been poor against the pass. The Eagles allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt and rank in the bottom half in Passing Success Rate and explosiveness allowed.

The good news is they will be facing one of the worst passing offenses in the ACC.

If you throw out his last game versus FCS opponent Abilene Christian, Brennan Armstrong is only throwing the ball for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The problem is Armstrongs top two targets from last year are gone, though hes found a nice connection with Billy Kemp, who already has 52 catches on the season.

The ground game is the strength of Virginias offense. Mendenhall is running a similar style of offense to the one he used at BYU when Taysom Hill was the quarterback, so its not surprising that Armstrong is the teams top rusher. Wayne Taulapapa has been a solid No. 1 running back, as hes averaging 4.5 yards per attempt.

Boston Colleges weakness on defense is against the run, so I expect Mendenhall to pound the rock all afternoon long.

The Cavaliers have done a solid job of stopping the run this season. Virginia is allowing only allowing 3.9 yards per carry and ranks 19th in Defensive Rushing Success, per College Football Data. That will come in handy against Boston Colleges run struggles.

However, Virginias secondary is allowing a whopping 9.7 yards per pass attempt on the season and 11.7 YPA over its last three ACC contests. Its no surprise that Virginias defense struggles to contain big plays, as it ranks 109th in passing explosiveness allowed.

To make matters worse, both of its starting safeties are questionable for Saturday, so Virginia is going to have a tough time keeping Jurkovec in check on Saturday.

I think Boston Colleges passing attack has a huge advantage in this game, especially since Jurkovec is probable. The Eagles defense will need to step up and stop Armstrong and the rushing attack, but it should be up to the task against Virginias average rushing attack.

I have Boston College projected at -2.86 favorites on the road, so I think theres value on the Eagles at +4.

Pick:Boston College +4 (down to +2).

Go here to see the original:

Boston College vs. Virginia Odds & Picks: Should the Eagles Really Be Favorites in Charlottesville? - The Action Network