Hard Numbers: Mexicanas on strike, freedom falters, and Coronavirus clears the air – GZERO Media

Your Friday edition of Signal is (mostly) free of the twin plagues of Coronavirus and American politics. Today, we'll follow the trail from Syria through Turkey and Russia into Europe, unlock Guyana's secret stash, spend some "free time" in Iran, play with Venezuelan babies, and unload one slightly used magic orb.

Cheers,

Willis Sparks

Fighting has pushed the Syrian province of Idlib to the breaking point. Russian-backed Syrian forces, Syrian rebels trapped inside the city, and Turkey's military are all directly involved, and the stakes in this conflict have risen dramatically in recent days as the conflict threatens to generate a severe humanitarian crisis that sends shock waves through Turkey toward Europe.

Turkey's President Erdogan and Russia's President Putin reportedly agreed on a ceasefire on Thursday, but previous such deals have fallen apart.

So, what do the big players in this conflict want?

If you're Syria's President Assad, you want your country back. Regaining full control of Syria means forcing the total surrender of rebels in Idlib, the last city your forces don't control. You also want your Russian sponsor to force Turkey's army out of your country.

If you're Turkey's President Erdogan, you want Russia, the big military power in Syria, to stop helping Assad attack Idlib. You want a ceasefire and a deal, because you already have 3.6 million foreign refugees, most of them Syrian, living inside your country, and the fall of Idlib might send a million more scrambling in your direction. You also want financial help from Europe to handle all these refugees and EU political help to get the result you want in Syria. To get this help, you'll threaten to tear up the deal you made with Europe in 2016 to house Syrian refugees in exchange for European cash. To show you're serious, you'll nudge a few thousand of them toward European shores.

If you're Greece's government, you want Erdogan to stop pushing refugees toward your borders. Protests have erupted against the refugees you're already sheltering. You want Europe to send money and troops right now to help keep your borders closed during this time of emergency.

If you're the leadership of the European Union, you desperately want to avoid a repeat of the migrant crisis of 2015-2016, which turned the bloc's politics upside down. You want Erdogan to know that you understand Turkey's problem and are ready to help with more moneybut without appearing to give in to blackmail in ways that would encourage Erdogan to blackmail you some more. You want Greece to know that you're ready to help this frontline member state secure its borders. And you want this problem to go away so you can deal with other pressing problemslike Coronavirus and a slowing European economy.

If you're Vladimir Putin, you want to make the most of the Idlib problem. You want your ally Assad in control in Syria. You want to keep Erdogan in his place. But perhaps most of all, you're happy to see a new wave of refugees further poison relations between NATO member Turkey and the rest of Europe. You want Europe to have to spend more money on this problem, and you want a new migrant crisisor better yet, the continuing threat of oneto poison the political atmosphere among and inside European countries.

Three major energy challenges require immediate attention: climate change, access to energy and population growth. Our next energy system needs to address each of these needs, and Eni knows how to meet that goal: sustainable energy for all.

Learn more at Eni's new website

Guyana rags to riches If you knew your income would triple over the next four years, what would you do? That's the wonderful (and fascinating) problem facing the small South American nation of Guyana after the recent discovery there of one of the world's biggest offshore oil reserves. The country's 780,000 people are currently awaiting the results of the presidential and legislative elections held earlier this week. The winners of that vote will be responsible for guiding this nation through one of the most dramatic increases in national wealth in recent world history. At the moment, Guyana's GDP per person is less than $5,000. As it goes from being one of the Western hemisphere's poorest countries per capita to one of its wealthiest, will Guyana's people prosper? Or will this country fall prey to ethnic divisions as citizens of African and Indian descent fight for the spoils. Will it suffer what political scientists call "the resource curse" as a tidal wave of new money warps the economy and feeds rampant corruption? Stay tuned.

Free Time in Iran Are you stuck in an Iranian prison and want to go home? Good news. You're free to go. If you have tested negative for Coronavirus. And you're serving a sentence of less than five years. To this point, Iran is home to the deadliest Coronavirus outbreak outside China. Afraid that overcrowded prisons help Coronavirus spread, Iranian authorities announced this week that 54,000 prisoners will be freed temporarily. We'll be watching to see how they spend their "free time," and how difficult it might prove to return them all to jail in the future.

Maduro babies "Every woman should have six children for the good of the country." So says Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, president of a country that is home to severe shortages of food and medicine. By having more children, he seems to believe, Venezuela can eventually end its politically driven economic collapse.

The ongoing civil war in Syria, now entering its ninth year, has produced more than 6 million refugees who have fanned out across the region to Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and beyond to Europe. The GZERO team recently met Sami, a refugee who fled Aleppo in 2016 and eventually settled in Germany. A lover of tattoos and techno music, he is now studying to be a social worker and adjusting to his new life. He told us the harrowing story of how he escaped his war-torn country, and what life has been like since. The full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, which focuses on the current crisis in Idlib province and the history of the conflict in Syria, begins airing today on U.S. public television.

Watch the clip now.

10 On Monday March 9, the first working day after International Women's Day, women's rights activists in Mexico will lead a nationwide women's strike to protest misogynist violence that claims the lives of 10 women in Mexico daily. El nueve ninguna se mueve! (On the 9th, no woman will move!)

14 The world has become "less free" for 14 straight years, as democracies wobble and strongmen get stronger. That's according to watchdog Freedom House's latest Freedom in the World report, which ranks countries according to political rights and civil liberties. More than sixty countries are less free than they were last year. Read the whole (depressing) report here, or see how your country stacks up here.

5 billion The United States is set to invest $5 billion in Ethiopia to deepen the already fast-growing country's embrace of free markets, as well as to counter growing Chinese influence in East Africa. The money will be allocated over the next several years by Washington's new International Development Finance Corporation.

Words of Wisdom

"Based on current trends, it would take 257 years to close the [global] gender gap in economic opportunity."

-- From "The Human Development Report's Gender Inequality Index"

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks and Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Spiritual Counsel from Gabrielle Debinski, Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), and Dr. Jonas Salk.

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Hard Numbers: Mexicanas on strike, freedom falters, and Coronavirus clears the air - GZERO Media