We just have to limit the damage that he’s causing: Republican governor on risk Trump poses to a party that otherwise teems with 2022 confidence -…

WASHINGTON (AP) This time last year, the Republican Party was hitting bottom. Having already lost the presidency and House, the GOP would soon squander its Senate majority and watch with horror as thousands of Donald Trumps supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in a violent attack last Jan. 6 that will be forever linked to the Republican presidents legacy.

What a difference 12 months make. Entering a pivotal election year, a resurgent GOP appears poised to reclaim one chamber, or even both chambers, of Congress and retain its lock on dozens of state legislatures and governors offices.

While victory is far from assured, the GOPs confidence is fueled by President Joe Bidens underwhelming poll numbers, a Democratic economic and social agenda thats , intensifying concerns about inflation, and deepening frustration with the pandemic, which is unleashing yet another wave of infections upon an exhausted nation.

Every state that Biden won by less than 10 is now a battleground state.

But at its most basic level, the Republican Partys optimism is born of the same political headwinds that have shaped U.S. politics for decades. The party that controls the White House Democrats, in this case has a tremendous disadvantage in the first election of a new presidency. Adding to that challenge, Democrats are struggling to prevent a far-reaching Republican campaign to make voting more difficult for core Democratic constituents while installing a slate of election officials allied with Trump.

From the archives (August 2021): House Democrats call on McCarthy to apologize for remark about hitting Pelosi

GOP leaders are brimming with confidence.

Were going to have a hell of a year, said Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, who leads the national GOPs Senate campaign arm. Every state that Biden won by less than 10 is now a battleground state.

From the archives (January 2021): Kevin McCarthy becomes poster boy for Republicans walking back their recent Trump criticism

Lest there be any doubt, Republicans dominated the off-year elections this fall across Virginia, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, where Democrats in races from governor to county recorder of deeds were defeated or barely held on in regions that Biden had comfortably carried by more than 10 percentage points a year earlier. Perhaps most disturbing for Democrats, suburban voters and independents who fled Trumps Republican Party in recent years to some degree appeared to have shifted back without him on the ballot.

Democratic strategists privately concede that the party will be lucky to hold either congressional chamber in November, although the House may be in the most immediate peril.

They point to the surge of recent Democratic congressional retirements, dozens of Republican-controlled state legislatures that are actively reshaping House districts in the GOPs favor, a struggle to enact all of Bidens campaign promises, and a disengaged political base especially African Americans. Their priorities on policing and voting rights have gone unfulfilled in Democratic-controlled Washington, even after last years supposed national awakening on race.

Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said too many Americans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. But he attributes the pessimism to lingering anxiety from a pandemic that will soon enter its third year.

With new COVID-19 medication coming onto the market and expanded vaccine access for children, he predicted the country would return to a sense of normalcy by the end of March.

We know that the economy is roaring is some aspects. But its about how you feel at this moment, Harrison said, noting that many people are still grappling with fear and anxiety. I believe in the midst of the first quarter, end of the first quarter, that feeling will start to shift.

Market Extra: The S&P 500 rang up 68 records in Bidens 1st year? Heres how stock-market returns stack up for the 46th president against others.

GOP challenges: While Republicans believe the dynamics work in their favor, they face their own formidable challenges. Democrats believe that GOP efforts to curb access to the ballot, combined with a Supreme Court decision expected next summer that could dramatically erode or dismantle abortion rights, could suddenly galvanize Democrats most loyal supporters.

But for the GOP, perhaps no challenge is bigger than Trump himself.

The former president has waged an unprecedented war against fellow Republicans whom he deems insufficiently loyal, encouraging primary challenges against sitting members of Congress and governors in more than a dozen states. At the same time, some Republican operatives fear that Trumps continued lies about election fraud could depress turnout among the millions of loyalists who believe his baseless conspiracy theories.

See: Trump backs Alaska Gov. Dunleavy for re-election as long as Dunleavy doesnt support fellow Republican Murkowskis re-election to Senate

We just have to limit the damage that hes causing, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who sits on the executive board of the Republican Governors Association.

If we have big battles in primaries, either were going to nominate people who are unelectable in purple states or swing districts, or were going to beat up our incumbents so bad that they lose the general election, added Hogan. He isnt seeking re-election because of term limits but plans to travel the country promoting Republican officeholders in Trumps crosshairs.

That includes Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State, and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. The most vulnerable may be officeholders such as Herrera Beutler, who was among 10 House Republicans voting to impeach Trump for inspiring the January attack on the Capitol.

Two of the 10 have already announced theyre not seeking re-election.

Republican officials tasked with leading the GOPs 2022 election efforts are disturbed by Trumps sustained attacks on fellow party members, although few are willing to speak out publicly against him. Instead, Republican candidates in Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and elsewhere are battling each other in increasingly nasty primary contests for Trumps favor.

We are the tortoise, and [Republicans] are the hare. I dont want to do anything to deprive them of the overconfidence that will lead them to take a nap while we go slowly chugging by them.

With the primary election season running from March through September, GOP infighting is likely to dominate the narrative for months even as Trumps role in national politics probably still continues to grow.

He considers himself his partys kingmaker. Hes expected to play a more active campaign role next year after shying away from high-profile governors races this past fall in Virginia and New Jersey, where hes unpopular among suburban voters.

From the archives (October 2021): Republican gubernatorial candidate skips Take Back Virginia Rally featuring Trump, Bannon and others

Already, Trump has endorsed 60-plus Republican candidates and plans to weigh in on dozens more contests. That including Missouris combative Senate primary in which conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt recently begged Trump not to endorse Eric Greitens, a divisive former governor.

Context: Republicans fear a win by disgraced former Missouri governor Greitens in primary would gift wrap Senate seat for Democrats

Headwinds for Democrats: Even if Trumps politics hurt his party over the coming months, history suggests it may not matter. Just once this century has the party holding the White House not lost congressional seats in the first midterm election of a new presidency. That was in 2002, after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate under President Bill Clinton in 1994. They lost 63 House seats and another six Senate seats under President Barack Obama in 2010. In 2018, Republicans lost 40 House seats under Trump, while gaining a pair in the Senate.

Republican-controlled legislatures have aided the GOPs potential House fortunes by drawing new congressional districts that are even more favorable to the party, including in Iowa, Texas and North Carolina, where with legal challenges still pending at least two new districts will be safely Republican.

From the archives (November 2021): I know you dont like me, but thats OK: Republican leader McCarthy holds forth for 8 hours on House floor amid Democratic ridicule

Democratic legislators could pad their own advantages in places such as New York, but the GOP is positioned to help its standing elsewhere far more.

Redistricting will not affect the Senate landscape, where Republicans have to defend 20 seats compared with 14 for the Democrats. Thats a positive for Democrats, but six of the top Senate contests are playing out it states Biden won by no more than two percentage points or lost, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Beyond congressional races, the stakes are especially high for Democrats in statehouses. Republican-run legislatures from Texas to Georgia have enacted laws making it more difficult to vote in response to Trumps false claims of voter fraud a shift thats expected to have a disproportionate effect on Democratic-leaning African Americans and Latinos.

Democratic governors will be playing defense in much-watched Michigan and Wisconsin, and trying to hold an open seat in Pennsylvania. All three races are probably Democrats best chance to slow the GOPs years-long ascendancy in the industrial heartland. But the GOP currently controls the governors office in 27 states, compared with Democrats 23, with 36 up nationwide in 2022.

If Republicans win in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin while holding those state legislatures, the GOP would take total control of state government in those critical Midwestern battlegrounds that Biden narrowly won. That could give Republicans the power to change voting procedures in the next presidential contest, as their colleagues have in other states.

Prominent Black leaders have become increasingly concerned with the Democratic-controlled Congresss inability to enact federal legislation to supersede restrictive state laws. Senate Republicans have effectively blocked such efforts, while Democrats have resisted calls to bypass Senate rules that require at least 60 votes to advance legislation.

Many Black voters, a group that represents Democrats most reliable supporters, are equally frustrated by the partys inability to enact policing reform in response to the national outcry that followed George Floyds murder more than a year ago.

We have to do more: Yes, we have to do more, and we want it to be faster, said Stacey Abrams, a Democrat making her second bid for Georgia governor. She said Democrats must have deep conversations with the Black community not preaching, but having conversations about whats being done and what its going to take to get more done.

I understand why people are despondent right now. This has been a terrible two years, Abrams said of the broader political landscape. Its been hard for so many. And the promise of hope can be sometimes disappointing. But this is going to take a while. It took four years to get us where we are. Its going to take a little longer than a year to get us out of it.

See: Stacey Abrams calls for congressional voting-rights action ahead of second race for governor in Georgia

At the same time, top national Republicans, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, his partys only Black senator, are leading a national GOP effort to prioritize electing more women and candidates of color to state-level offices.

Republicans made unexpected gains with Latino voters in many parts of the country in 2020, and Virginia provided hints that some minority voters are sticking with the party even without Trump running. Republican Winsome Sears, who is Black and a former Marine, was the first woman of color elected as the states lieutenant governor. Jason Miyares will become the states first Latino attorney general.

While Democrats will feature far more minority incumbents and candidates on 2022 House and Senate ballots, former NFL running back Herschel Walker, who is Black, has been endorsed by Trump in Georgias Republican Senate primary despite allegations of a violent past, including threatening his former wife with a gun.

The winning formula is getting people who are from Main Street. We look for the best candidates that are out there and we allow the districts that they want to represent select them, said Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, head of the House Republican campaign arm. I think thats whats changed around here, rather than having Washington say, This is the right person for the seat.

Abortion politics: Despite disturbing signs as 2022 begins, some Democrats insist there is cause for optimism. The pandemic, the economy and inflation will be critical factors to the partys success. But no issue may be bigger than a looming Supreme Court decision on abortion rights. The conservative-leaning court is considering whether to weaken or even overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, which legalized abortion across America.

Democrats are hopeful that a major shift on the politically charged case would help rally suburban women to their side voters who lifted the party in 2018, though polling this year hasnt been conclusive.

We are the tortoise and they are the hare, said New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, head of the House Democratic campaign arm. I dont want to do anything to deprive them of the overconfidence that will lead them to take a nap while we go slowly chugging by them.

Washington Watch: Bidens biggest challenges in 2022? Convincing Americans the United States is on the right track, winning the economy battle, analysts say.

For now, however, the numbers are daunting for Democrats. Just 33% of Americans say things in the country are on the right track, according to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Sixty-six percent say things are headed in the wrong direction. Thats a stark departure from the first few months of Bidens term, when roughly half said things were going the right way.

About one-third of Americans call national economic conditions good, down from roughly half last March. Only 41% say they approve of Bidens stewardship, down from 60% in March.

See: Consumer confidence shows some resilience in December

Also: U.S. leading economic indicators jump in November signaling growth momentum will continue into next year

Even though the diagnostics are pretty tough for the president and Democrats, its not because they love Republicans. The Republican Party has terrible standing with the American people, said John Anzalone, the pollster for Bidens presidential campaign. This isnt people defaulting to Republicans because they like them. And that can catch up to them as the environment changes.

I have to remind people that there will probably be, what, $6 billion spent on this election cycle, and well spend $3 billion, Anzalone continued. We have something to say.

Read on: Chicago regions economy grows faster in December and points to still-vigorous U.S. expansion

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We just have to limit the damage that he's causing: Republican governor on risk Trump poses to a party that otherwise teems with 2022 confidence -...