The 10 races that will decide the Senate majority | TheHill – The Hill

Democrats are defending the narrowest of Senate majorities in 2022 as Republicans look to fight their way back into power after a series of crushing defeats.

While Democrats are going on offense in a handful of states where GOP incumbents are retiring, the party is also facing strong national headwinds in their bid to hold onto the Senate. The party of a new president in this case President BidenJoe BidenThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Bidens: Desmond Tutu's legacy will 'echo throughout the ages' Media love bad news; you don't have to MORE almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections.

Given Democrats slim Senate majority, control of the upper chamber is likely to come down to just a handful of states. Here are the 10 races that will decide the Senate majority next year:

Pennsylvania

With President Bidens narrow victory in the state last year and the coming retirement of Sen. Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeyMeet Washington's most ineffective senator: Joe Manchin Black women look to build upon gains in coming elections Watch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposal MORE (R-Pa.), Pennsylvania may well offer Democrats their best chance to pick up a new Senate seat in 2022.

So far, more than half a dozen Democrats have entered the race to succeed Toomey, including Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Rep. Conor Lamb (Pa.) and Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Chair Val Arkoosh.

And while the Democratic primary field has yet to yield a clear front-runner, the Republican field is just as fluid.

Sean Parnell, who had won former President Donald TrumpDonald TrumpThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority How American conservatives normalize anti-Semitism VP dilemma: The establishment or the base? MOREs endorsement and was seen as the likely GOP front-runner, dropped out of the race last month amid a series of personal controversies, leaving a vacuum on the Republican side. The entrance of celebrity physician Mehmet OzMehmet OzThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority McCormick drawing support from Trump alumni ahead of Pennsylvania Senate bid McCormick moves closer to Senate run in Pennsylvania MORE into the GOP primary in late November only served to shake up the race further.

Georgia

Sen. Raphael WarnockRaphael WarnockThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Democrats set for showdown over filibuster, voting rights History shows only a new Voting Rights Act can preserve our fragile democracy MORE (D-Ga.) is heading into 2022 fresh off a history-making victory in a January runoff, making the 2022 Senate contest in Georgia a test of whether Democrats can maintain their momentum in a state that has only recently become a battleground.

Republicans argue, however, that the state still leans in their direction, especially in a midterm year that is expected to be unfriendly for Democrats.

Former football star Herschel Walker, who has high name recognition in the state as well as Trumps endorsement, has emerged as the favorite for the GOP nomination. And while he still faces some primary opposition, top Republicans including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Let's be honest: 2021 wasn't all bad Your 2021 holiday dinner political survival guide MORE (Ky.) have coalesced around Walker, seeing him as the best candidate to oust Warnock next year.

Given both Trumps involvement in the race and Democrat Stacey Abramss entrance into the contest for Georgia governor, the 2022 Senate election in Georgia is quickly emerging as the epicenter of the battle for control of the upper chamber.

Arizona

Like Warnock, Sen. Mark KellyMark KellyThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Senate Democrats press for info on nursing home boosters Democrats mull hardball tactics to leapfrog parliamentarian on immigration MORE (D-Ariz.) is heading into his 2022 reelection bid having just run a competitive race in 2020, and hes among the GOPs top targets in the Senate.

But before they can take on Kelly directly, Republicans will first have to resolve a relatively crowded primary.

While polling shows state Attorney General Mark Brnovich leading his rivals for the GOP nomination, Trump has somewhat complicated that picture by publicly taunting Brnovich for not doing more to reverse Bidens win in Arizona in the 2020 presidential election. Trump also appeared at a fundraiser for another GOP candidate, Blake Masters, at Mar-a-Lago last month.

The eventual winner of the Republican primary will have to contend with Kelly, one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate, in the 2022 general election. Still, with Democrats facing tough national headwinds next year, Kellys seat is far from safe.

Wisconsin

Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Ukraine president, US lawmakers huddle amid tensions with Russia The Memo: Nation's racial reckoning plays out in 2021's big trials MORE (R-Wis.), one of the most despised figures by the left, hasnt yet said whether he will seek another term in the Senate in 2022, leaving Wisconsin Republicans in limbo for the time being.

The field of Democrats vying to take Johnson on, however, is vast. So far, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has led his top primary rivals in fundraising, while also picking up high-profile endorsements from the likes of Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Cardin on future of Biden spending bill: 'A lot of us are gonna be disappointed' Elizabeth Warren goes to war against SpaceX's Elon Musk MORE (D-Mass.).

Still, Wisconsin wont hold its primaries until August, leaving the nominating contest far from settled. Meanwhile, Johnson indicated last month that he will make a decision on his political future soon. If Johnson chooses to seek another term, hell be the only GOP Senate incumbent to seek reelection in a state that Biden won in 2020.

Nevada

Former Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt is the likely GOP favorite to challenge Sen. Catherine Cortez MastoCatherine Marie Cortez MastoThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Democrats mull hardball tactics to leapfrog parliamentarian on immigration Senate parliamentarian rejects Democrats' third immigration offer MORE (D-Nev.) next year. Hes already picked up the support of both Trump and McConnell, and has the benefit of already having run statewide, both successfully and unsuccessfully.

Democrats have been eager to cast Laxalt as a Trump acolyte who has backed the former presidents false claim that the 2020 election was rigged. Theyre also quick to note that Laxalt lost his 2018 bid for the Nevada governors mansion.

Still, theres little doubt that Nevada is in play for the GOP. Trump lost the state last year by only 2 points. At the same time, Republicans picked up some support among Latino voters in 2020, which could give Democrats a rockier path to victory next year.

North Carolina

Despite Trumps victories in the state in 2016 and 2020, North Carolina remains nearly evenly split between the two parties statewide. At the same time, Sen. Richard BurrRichard Mauze BurrThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Pelosi faces pushback over stock trade defense Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 MOREs (R-N.C.) decision to retire after his current term expires in 2023 has created a classic battleground scenario.

While 2020 proved disappointing for North Carolina Democrats Trump narrowly carried the state, while Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority North Carolina Democrat Jeff Jackson drops out of Senate race The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Uber - Senate debt limit drama ends; Trump legal troubles rise MORE (R-N.C.) beat Democrat Cal Cunningham in a hotly contested Senate race the party is hoping to make a comeback in 2022, even in the face of national challenges for Democrats.

For now, the Republican primary field is mired in division. Trump has endorsed Rep. Ted BuddTheodore (Ted) Paul BuddThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 North Carolina Democrat Jeff Jackson drops out of Senate race MORE (R-N.C.) for the GOP Senate nomination, but former Gov. Pat McCrory is putting up a tough fight. Another GOP candidate, former Rep. Mark WalkerBradley (Mark) Mark WalkerThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority North Carolina Democrat Jeff Jackson drops out of Senate race Democrat Jeff Jackson set to exit North Carolina Senate race: report MORE (N.C.), is considering a possible run for the House instead, though he has said he will remain in the Senate contest for the time being.

Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. State Sen. Jeff Jackson exited the Democratic field earlier this month and threw his support behind Beasley.

Ohio

Democrats, for the most part, have rallied around Rep. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Democrats confront rising retirements as difficult year ends Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 MORE (D-Ohio) as their choice to succeed retiring Sen. Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Ukraine president, US lawmakers huddle amid tensions with Russia Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 MORE (R-Ohio) next year, seeing him as the kind of candidate capable of replicating the success of Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Ukraine president, US lawmakers huddle amid tensions with Russia Equilibrium/Sustainability New life blossoms in Antarctic ice shelf MORE (Ohio), the last remaining statewide elected Democrat in Ohio.

In the Republican field meanwhile, the candidates have lurched to the right in an effort to capitalize on Trumps success in the state in 2016 and 2020.

The former president has yet to endorse in the contest, but that hasnt stopped several of the top candidates including former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, entrepreneur and author JD Vance and former state GOP Chair Jane Timken from fighting over their loyalty to Trump.

Still, Democrats have had a tough run in Ohio in recent years, leading some to question its status as a political battleground, and for now, its still seen as leaning in the GOPs favor in 2022.

New Hampshire

Republicans were dealt a blow last month when New Hampshire Gov. Chris SununuChris SununuThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Sunday shows - Manchin says he cannot back Biden spending plan Sununu won't say if he would support a Trump 2024 run MORE announced that he would seek reelection next year instead of challenging Sen. Maggie HassanMargaret (Maggie) HassanThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Don't just delay student debt, prevent it Democrats set for showdown over filibuster, voting rights MORE (D-N.H.), denying Senate GOP leaders one of their top recruits of the 2022 elections.

Still, Republicans are bullish about their chances of ousting Hassan next year, even without Sununu in the race, arguing that she remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents in the country. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in October found Hassans favorability underwater at 33 percent to 51 percent.

Nevertheless, Republicans have yet to coalesce around a single candidate to take her on. Another potential heavyweight contender, former Sen. Kelly AyotteKelly Ann AyotteThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Manchin, Sanders will oppose Biden FDA nominee Califf Sununu setback leaves GOP scrambling in New Hampshire MORE (R-N.H.), also announced in November that she would not run.

Florida

Rep. Val DemingsValdez (Val) Venita DemingsThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 Key centrist Democrat Stephanie Murphy won't seek reelection MORE (D-Fla.) has emerged as the leading candidate to take on Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Biden signs bill punishing China for Uyghur abuses Equilibrium/Sustainability New life blossoms in Antarctic ice shelf MORE (R-Fla.), giving Florida Democrats a high-profile name on the ticket in 2022.

But beating Rubio isnt going to be an easy task. For one, Democrats have been dealt a series of stinging defeats in Florida in recent years, most recently in 2020 when Trump carried it by a more-than-3-point margin a relative landslide by Sunshine State standards.

And for the first time in modern history, Republican registered voters now outnumber Democrats.

Still, Demings is a prolific fundraiser, raking in nearly $8.5 million in the third quarter of 2021 alone. And despite the GOPs newfound voter registration advantage, Republicans say theyre taking the Senate race seriously, well aware of how expensive and unpredictable Florida can be.

Missouri

Missouri has, for the most part, become safe territory for Republicans, handing Trump a 15-point win in the 2020 presidential election.

While theres a crowded field of Republicans seeking the nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Blunt blasts Democratic 'gimmicks' in Build Back Better as bill's future remains in jeopardy Sunday show preview: Omicron surges, and Harris sits for extensive interview MORE (R-Mo.) next year, many GOP operatives remain concerned that the state could become competitive for Democrats if disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens wins the Republican nod.

Trump hasnt endorsed in the Senate race yet, though he hasnt ruled out the possibility of backing Greitens, who resigned from the governors mansion in 2018 following an investigation into allegations of sexual and campaign misconduct.

There are still a handful of other Republicans seeking their partys nomination to succeed Blunt, including Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Reps. Vicky HartzlerVicky Jo HartzlerThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Photos of the Year Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 MORE (Mo.) and Billy LongWilliam (Billy) H. LongThe 10 races that will decide the Senate majority Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 Republicans fret over Trump's influence in Missouri Senate race MORE (Mo.).

Democrats are also contending with a primary of their own. Who emerges from the two nominating contests could determine just how competitive the Senate race in Missouri will be.

--Updated on Dec. 27.

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