Race ratings: No disputing that GOP will lose a House seat in West Virginia – Roll Call

ANALYSIS Even without a competitive general election race, West Virginia will still be a factor in the fight for the House next year. Buoyed by midterm history and President Joe Bidens slumping job rating, Republicans are increasingly confident in their ability to gain the five House seats they need for control. But theyre certain to lose a seat in West Virginia.

The Mountain State lost a seat during the most recent round of reapportionment due to population loss over the past decade, cutting its House delegation from three to two. The state has been sending only Republicans to Washington since 2015, so that loss will come from the GOP column. And Republicans will have to win a seat elsewhere to compensate.

With all three incumbents poised to run for two seats, West Virginia is home to the first known member-versus-member contest of the cycle. And the new map has some creative numbering, just to add to the chaos of a redistricting cycle.

For 30 years, southern West Virginia has been located in the 3rd District, and the region was represented for decades by Democrat Nick J. Rahall II. But as the state shifted Republican, so did southern West Virginia, and Rahall lost in 2014.

Miller has represented the area since 2019, but the southern seat will now be renumbered as the 1st District. The biggest change is the addition of Kanawha County, which includes the state capital of Charleston and is currently part of Rep. Alex X. Mooneys 2nd District.

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Race ratings: No disputing that GOP will lose a House seat in West Virginia - Roll Call