NC Republican primary key test of Trump’s sway | TheHill – The Hill

The North Carolina Republican Senate primary is set to be an early barometer of the power of former President TrumpDonald TrumpTrump to offer commentary at heavyweight fight on 9/11 Trump schedules rallies in Iowa, Georgia USDA to provide 0M in COVID-19 relief for farm and food workers MOREs endorsement as he seeks to be a difference-maker in a marquee Senate race.

Trump issued a surprise endorsement of Rep. Ted BuddTheodore (Ted) Paul BuddPeter Thiel flexes financial muscle ahead of 2022 Trump takes two punches from GOP Schumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up MORE in June, giving the third-term conservative lawmaker a boost with grassroots voters in a three-way GOP primary with former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark WalkerBradley (Mark) Mark WalkerFirst hearing set for lawsuit over Florida's new anti-riot bill NRA appealing Florida ban on gun sales to people under 21 Trump's biggest political obstacle is Trump MORE. But it is largely McCrorys time as the governor of North Carolina from 2013 to 2017 that makes the primary to replace retiring Sen. Richard BurrRichard Mauze BurrThe 19 GOP senators who voted for the T infrastructure bill Senate votes to end debate on T infrastructure bill In praise of Susan Collins' persistent bipartisanship MORE (R-N.C.) such a crucial gauge of Trumps sway.

The former president has issued endorsements in a handful of other high-profile Senate races, but most partisan primaries are packed with Trump-aligned candidates, meaning an endorsement for one candidate inherently narrows the paths for the others. But in North Carolina, Trumps endorsement is seeking to elevate a House backbencher with low statewide name recognition over a former governor who is less ideologically affiliated with Trump and more broadly known.

I think Trumps endorsement is a factor in this primary. Others include who can raise the most money day by day, and ideology is a factor. But Trumps endorsement is also a factor, and the outcome could well tell us some facts about the strength of Trumps endorsement and clarify how much that matters, said North Carolina GOP strategist Carter Wrenn.

Trumps endorsement, which he issued at the North Carolina GOP convention, set off celebrations in Budds campaign and recriminations among his rivals, who were surprised by the early support.

It also had an immediate impact for Budd, with his campaign flaunting the subsequent slew of headlines and gush of donations.

We saw an immediate uptick in low-dollar donations starting 90 seconds after President Trump endorsed Ted from the stage of the N.C. GOP convention, said Jonathan Felts, a senior adviser to Budd. We already had a campaign plan with multiple lanes to victory for Ted prior to the endorsement, and President Trumps endorsement has widened those lanes and opened up other pathways to victory as well.

But Budd has not seen a consistent rise in the polls in the months since, and many surveys still show him with stubbornly low name recognition among voters, fueling speculation the endorsement came too early.

That the Trump endorsement did not push anyone out of the race and still hasnt provided a real name ID boost for Budd makes the early timing of the endorsement baffling, said Republican strategist Doug Heye.

Still, the endorsement is anticipated to be the centerpiece of Budds primary campaign.

The GOP grassroots remains largely enthralled with the former president, and with a primary electorate that is made up largely of hard-line conservatives rather than those from all corners of the Republican Party, Trumps endorsement is still expected to be a key tool to boosting name recognition.

He still has over, what is it, 90 percent approval within the Republican Party? And those are the voters that vote in the Republican primary, said a former Trump administration official. Getting his endorsement, I would think thats a goal of any Republican candidate running for any office if they hope to be viable.

A recent poll from the anti-tax Club for Growth, which endorsed Budd, shows the power of the former presidents endorsement. The survey, released last week and conducted in June, showed Budd trailing McCrory by a 45-21 margin among likely primary voters but jumping ahead to a 52-28 lead once those voters are informed of the endorsement.

Those results underscore that Budd maintains a path to a primary victory if he wields the endorsement effectively.

The impact of the Trump endorsement, in sort of its simplest form, gives Budd a path where one otherwise would not have existed for him in this kind of a race, said a GOP strategist involved in the Senate race. Well see what the impact of it is moving forward, well see how the Budd campaign can capitalize on it from a fundraising perspective. They didnt do a good job the first time.

In any other normal year, the source added, Pat McCrory would already have this primary sewn up.

Republicans universally say the endorsement remains a huge boost but that its on Budd and his allies to raise and spend money to publicize it to voters.

That effort is already underway. The Club for Growth is expected to drop at least $10 million to boost Budd, and it put out an ad earlier this month focusing solely on Trumps speech in June announcing his support.

The fact that theyre spending that much money right now just to let people know that Trump and Budd are connected shows you that they really are concerned that that is not getting across, said one prominent North Carolina political observer.

You will see Trump flags flying in the yards, you will see Trump signs along the road to this very day. The Trump factor alone is so huge in the state, but if they dont know Ted Budd and that hes connected, its a huge problem against somebody with as much standing and name recognition as a former governor like Pat McCrory.

To be sure, publicizing the endorsement is not a panacea for Budds bid, but Trumps support is a message hell be able to stump on for the entirety of the primary against his opponents.

I dont think its a silver bullet. I think if it was a silver bullet, when it happened, Congressman Budd would have taken a 40-point jump in the polls. But its a bullet that no one else in the race has, said Michele Woodhouse, the chair of the North Carolina 11th Congressional District GOP.

McCrory has looked to offset Budds Trump advantage by seizing on concerns that the congressman could face headwinds in a general election.

Republicans worry that leaning on Trump alone will not be enough in a swing state like North Carolina, where appealing to moderates in urban and suburban centers is paramount.

Youre not going to elect a candidate in a purple state whose only argument for voting for him is that hes endorsed by Donald Trump, the strategist working in the race said. You got to have candidates who can stand on their own two feet and not be totally dependent on the political support of Donald Trump in order to get elected. Ted Budd seems totally complacent that thats his existence.

Those concerns were only exacerbated last week after The Washington Post published a story detailing the Budd familys involvement in the bankruptcy of a company called AgriBioTech, which cost farmers millions of dollars.

Still, just as touting Trumps endorsement is not a silver bullet for Budd, neither is pouncing on general election concerns one for McCrory.

The problem is that our primary politics are so one-sided, either super liberal or super conservative, that I dont know if that argument has enough to make it, said the prominent observer.

Beyond the contenders in the race, the primary also holds significance for Trump, who is known to wield his endorsement as an example of his power in the party. The former president has an overwhelmingly successful, if not perfect, record in his endorsements, but his announcement for Budd is one of his first since leaving office and being deplatformed from social media, potentially heightening its importance for his brand.

Trumps tried to create a fiction, which is that I rule the Republican Party, I control the Republican Party, said Wrenn. I think if Budd doesnt win the primary, its a problem for Trump. If Budd does win, then Trump will try to use it to promote his fiction.

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NC Republican primary key test of Trump's sway | TheHill - The Hill