Opinion: What Putin should be worried about – CT Insider

Russian President Vladimir Putins confidence appears to have grown as the war in Ukraine drags on for a sixth month. What could be some reasons for this change after the initial military failures of Russias invasion of Ukraine?

Russian military forces, after retreating from the north and consolidating in the eastern part of Ukraine, have made incremental gains in the Donbass region. In addition, through the use of the Wagner Group - Putins mercenary army Moscow was able to bolster its troops with experienced and ruthless soldiers who have left atrocities in their wake in Syria, Africa, and now in Ukraine. In the southern Russian occupied region of Kherson, Putin is planning to hold illegal annexation referendums to solidify his gains.

Putin has been able to get around his countrys isolation by the West through his counter diplomacy, increasing economic ties with the leaders of Turkey and Iran and participating in the BRICS summit. Many countries in the Global South are non-committal toward the conflict, seeing it more as a regional crisis. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, recently conducted a whirlwind tour of Africa to garner opposition towards Western sanctions. China is still standing by its friendship agreement without limits signed with Russia.

The Russian leader also calculates that divisions within NATO will eventually deepen. High global energy prices, inflation, and expected fuel shortages will, he believes, increase tensions between Western allies. High energy prices are also helping to fund Putins war. Countries, such as India, are buying Russian oil for favorable prices. In addition, Russia is able to raise revenue through the Wagner Groups financial dealings in various countries, allowing Moscow to access critical funding while evading sanctions.

Putin also appears to have completely suppressed domestic opposition to the "special military operation by using terror, imprisonment, and eliminating any free press in Russia. The oligarchs and other elites who have benefited financially by their association with Putin continue to toe the line.

But Putin should not necessarily be so confident as the situation may not be as favorable as he might think. The Ukrainians have continued to fight with limited resources despite Russias military advantages and gains in the east. The arrival of HIMARS have enabled Ukrainian soldiers to launch strikes further into Russian-held territory, targeting command posts, ammunition depots and disrupting supply lines. Kiev is also believed to be close to launching an offensive to reclaim Kherson. That has forced Russia to redeploy some of its troops from the east to protect its gains in the south.

Russia has also suffered significant casualties in the conflict, with British intelligence estimating the number at 80,000. Moscow is running low on troops and is recruiting more underqualified, underaged men, including prison inmates. Putin is resisting declaring a national mobilization because it would signify that the special military operation is not going well. In addition, export controls have impacted Russian arms manufacturers, forcing them to slow down production on advanced munitions. These manpower and equipment problems could stall Russian advances and offer Ukraine a better opportunity for a counteroffensive.

Putins efforts to sow division within NATO and its allies have not been successful. Suspected war crimes, bombing of civilian targets, kidnapping of Ukrainians into Russian territory, and using a nuclear power plant as a military base have actually galvanized Western unity. The European Union has made preparations for the expected energy shortages which Russia is likely to trigger. Sanctions have only been increasing on Russia, its elites, and Putins family members. While Putin claimed his invasion was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, he most likely did not imagine that it would prompt Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.

One of Putins primary goals of the invasion was to depose President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government. Not only did his attempt fail, but it actually strengthened the Ukrainian leaders domestic position and increased his standing in the global community. His recent approval rating is 97 percent, higher than what Putin reportedly enjoys at home. While Putin has cracked down on domestic opposition and the media within Russia, and as body bags of dead soldiers continue to arrive, public support might begin to fade much like it did during the Soviet war in Afghanistan.

Although the China-Russia alliance appears strong, Beijing has likely had some misgivings about its total allegiance, particularly in light of Russias poor performance in Ukraine. In addition, Putins invasion has inadvertently made Russia a junior partner by increasing its economic dependence on China. For now, China is abiding by the sanctions, understanding the importance of its trade with its Western partners.

Putin, therefore, has quite a bit to worry about. The Western allies must continue supporting Ukraine with weaponry, intelligence, financial assistance, while increasing sanctions on Russia. A victory for Putin would only encourage him to pursue further imperial dreams. Ukraine needs these tools to defend its sovereignty and push back on Russias territorial gains, making the price for continued military actions too costly for Putin. It would also put Kiev in a stronger position for eventual diplomatic negotiations. That would really give Putin something to worry about.

Dr. Joanna M. Gwozdziowski is senior program adviser at Network 20/20. She resides in Stamford.

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Opinion: What Putin should be worried about - CT Insider