Ukrainians fear Russia diplomacy progress is a head fake – Axios

The outlines of a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine are coming into focus, but sources on the Ukrainian side tell Axios they fear Moscow's newfound enthusiasm for diplomacy is a ruse.

Why it matters: Kyiv has gained unexpected leverage by withstanding the Russian advance for three weeks, though the humanitarian crisis is deepening daily as Russia shells major cities.

Driving the news: After Zelensky said Ukraine wouldnt be invited into NATO, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Ukraine's post-war "neutrality" could be based on the Austrian or Swedish models.

Both are non-NATO members in the EU and firmly anchored in the West.

What they're saying: An adviser to Zelensky told Axios he believes the Russians aren't yet serious about reaching a deal, though one could be reached in the next few weeks if the West and Ukrainian forces continue to pile pressure on Putin.

The U.S. view is similar. While the White House had avoided high-level dialogue with Russia on the grounds that Moscow wasn't genuinely interested in diplomacy, national security adviser Jake Sullivan did speak to his Russian counterpart on Wednesday.

On the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the text of a potential deal is close to being agreed to.

What to watch: Military analysts have warned that Putin might soon seek a ceasefire to resupply his troops without any intention of ending the war altogether.

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Ukrainians fear Russia diplomacy progress is a head fake - Axios