For the U.S. and Russia, True Progress in Syria Is Still a Distant … – STRATFOR

The United States and Russia have reached a cease-fire agreement in Syria, but the ramifications of the deal will almost certainly be less drastic than many would like. The July 7 accord covers the southwestern Syrian provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida, and marks a new level of cooperation between the United States and Russia in Syria. Prior to their bargain, coordination had been limited to deconfliction mechanisms aimed at preventing an accidental skirmish between the U.S.-led coalition and Russian-backed forces in the country.

The White House has made it clear that it hopes to use the agreement as a way to breathe new life into negotiations with the Kremlin on settling the ongoing conflict. But the end of the civil war remains a distinctly distant prospect, especially since the new cease-fire deal already has been violated several times in the past week.

The United States' newfound willingness to work with Russia in Syria didn't come out of nowhere. As the battle or at least, the conventional battle against the Islamic State reaches its final phases in Iraq and Syria, Washington can no longer escape the fact that it needs to plan for the aftermath. Based on the Islamic State's emergence in Iraq after the United States left, the extremist group will likely remain a persistent insurgent force for years to come, even after its conventional battlefield defeat. Absent a comprehensive and successful effort to at least stabilize Syria, the Islamic State and other extremist groups will continue benefiting from the security vacuum and chaos in the country. Indeed, it could easily rebuild and re-emerge as a powerful force: In Syria, the Islamic State already has been able to expand its power in less critical areas of the country while its enemies were distracted with one another.

It's abundantly clear that there needs to be a comprehensive stabilization effort in Syria, but whether Washington and Moscow can work together toward that goal is not as evident. A number of past cease-fire agreements spearheaded by the United States and Russia have collapsed amid bitter recriminations and violations. And beyond the implementation of the cease-fire, there is little evidence suggesting that Russia is truly interested in the same goals in Syria as the United States. Washington sees an eventual move away from Syrian President Bashar al Assad's government and toward a less divisive transitional government as a necessary step to repair damaged relations between loyalist factions and the opposition. But Moscow seems less willing to go out of its way in pushing for the dissolution of an allied government in Damascus. Moreover, as U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized in his recent address in Poland, the United States is aiming for a political solution in Syria that limits Iran's influence and reach. Considering Moscow has worked closely with Tehran on a number of fronts in Syria, it is unlikely Russia would share that same objective.

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For the U.S. and Russia, True Progress in Syria Is Still a Distant ... - STRATFOR