7 indicators that show Michigans positive progress in the coronavirus crisis – MLive.com

As Michigan begins its third month of the coronavirus crisis, most of the numbers are moving in the right direction, experts agree.

On Monday, the state reported 414 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 33 new deaths -- the third consecutive day with fewer than 500 new confirmed cases. There also have been 50 or fewer deaths reported for the last three days out of four.

We are seeing cases decreasing over time, which is what we want to see, said Dr. Teena Chopra, an infectious disease specialist for the Detroit Medical Center. The stay-at-home model is working.

Michigan confirmed its first cases of coronavirus on March 10. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer shut down schools and restaurants as of March 16 and issued a stay-in-place order on March 23 as the number of new coronavirus cases was growing exponentially.

As for May 11, the state has confirmed 47,522 cases of COVID-19 and 4,584 have died of the disease.

Coronavirus appears to have peaked in Michigan during the first week of April. Here is whats happened in the month since.

1. Average number of new cases a day has plummeted.

During the last week of March and first two weeks of April -- March 22 to April 11 -- the state was averaging almost 1,100 new infections a day. That includes more than 1,500 sickened on March 30, according to state data looking at onset of illness.

The average for last week was not quite 350. Thats the lowest seven-day average since the first week of the crisis.

The below charts shows the daily reports of confirmed cases. (The chart is based on when cases were confirmed vs. onset of illness.)

2. Deaths are down 45%.

For the week ending April 11, Michigan reported an average of 131 deaths a day from coronavirus. Last week, it was an average of 72 deaths a day, a 45% decline.

Chopra noted that deaths are a lagging indicator. Its about two weeks behind" the case numbers, she said, reflecting the typical time between the onset of coronavirus and death in situations where the patient has died.

3. Hospitalizations are down 64% from a month ago.

As of Monday, May 11, Michigan had 1,422 coronavirus patients who were hospitalized. That compares to 3,986 on April 12, a 64% drop in the past month.

Of coronavirus patients hospitalized on April 12, 1,570 were in an intensive-care unit and 1,365 were on ventilators. That compares to 684 patients in ICU and 544 on ventilators Monday, May 11.

Incidentally, while case numbers have surged in the Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo areas in the past few weeks, hospitalizations have not kept pace.

In the past two weeks, the number of coronavirus cases went from 1,052 to 2,332 in Kent County and from 327 to 622 in Kalamazoo County. Meanwhile, the number of coronavirus patients hospitalized in the states Region 6, which includes Kent County, increased from 92 to 120 during that time. Hospitalizations in Region 5, which includes Kalamazoo, actually dropped from 62 patients on April 28 to 61 on May 11.

That indicates the majority of new patients involve more mild cases, said Dr. Russell Lampen, who heads the infectious disease division at Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids.

We have not seen a significant jump in the death rate, and hospitalizations have not mirrored the increase in the number of cases were seeing, he said.

4. Testing has almost tripled.

Last week, Michigan averaged almost 11,300 coronavirus tests a day. Thats almost triple the number a month ago, and means Michigan is now above the national average in per-capita testing.

The current goal is test 15,000 people daily. On May 7, the state tested 14,257, the highest number to date.

Testing is seen as critical to managing the pandemic going forward. Michigan Chief Medical Executive Dr. Joneigh Khaldun said Monday that state is hoping to increase that to an average of 30,000 tests administered each day by mid-June.

5. Testing is finding fewer new cases.

Even with more testing, the number of cases has declined. In the first seven days of May, Michigan had 3,754 confirmed new COVID-19 cases, compared to 7,818 during the first seven days of April, a 52% drop.

The first seven days of April, 40% of coronavirus tests performed in Michigan were positive for the virus. That compares to 8.5% percent in the first seven days of May.

Experts at the Harvard Global Health Institute recommend a minimum of 152 tests per 100,000 residents per day. That equates to about 15,140 daily tests in Michigan.

Harvard also says the percentage of positive tests should be no more than 10%, a number they say indicates the testing program is adequately capturing the infected population.

6. Michigan has fallen to 11th in per-capita coronavirus patients.

A month ago, Michigan was third in the nation in total number of coronavirus cases, lagging behind only New York and New Jersey.

There are now four additional states above Michigan: Illinois, Massachusetts, California and Pennsylvania.

In cases per capita, Michigan now ranks 11th behind New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Louisiana, Delaware, Illinois and Maryland.

In fact, Michigan has fewer active coronavirus cases right now than Indiana and Ohio, according to the Worldometers website, which pulls coronavirus information daily from state and county websites.

The website lists Michigan as having 20,282 active cases of COVID-19 compared to 22,979 in Ohio and 21,396 in Indiana. Active cases is the total number of coronavirus cases minus the number of patients defined as recovered by state and local officials, the website says.

However, a spokeswoman for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services says it may not be an apples-to-apples comparison. Recovered is not a statistic run consistently between states, Lynn Sutfin said in an email to MLive. Some dont run anything; some use different definitions. So it is difficult to use for cross state comparison.

In per capita deaths, Michigan now ranks seventh, behind New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana and District of Columbia.

7. A projection model used by the White House projects a sharp drop in Michigans coronavirus deaths in June and July.

Michigan is projected to have another 1,200 deaths during the rest of May as a result of coronavirus, but the number is expected to drop to about 400 deaths during the month of June and about 60 deaths during the month of July, according to a model operated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

In fact, the IHME predicts both Ohio and Indiana will have more coronavirus deaths in June and July than Michigan. Its forecasting about 700 deaths during that two-month period in Ohio and almost 1,400 in Indiana as states move to reopen their economies.

In all, the IHME model is predicting Michigan will have a total of 6,517 deaths by Aug. 1. Thats a 42% increase compared to the current total.

The IHME model is projecting that Ohio will see its death toll more than double from 1,360 to 2,940 by Aug. 1, and Indiana will see a 165% increase to from 1,540 to 4,091.

Nationally, the model is projecting 137,184 deaths across the U.S. by Aug. 1, a 67% increase from the current total.

PREVENTION TIPS

In addition to washing hands regularly and not touching your face, officials recommend practicing social distancing, assuming anyone may be carrying the virus.

Health officials say you should be staying at least 6 feet away from others and working from home, if possible.

Use disinfecting wipes or disinfecting spray cleaners on frequently-touched surfaces in your home (door handles, faucets, countertops) and carry hand sanitizer with you when you go into places like stores.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also issued an executive order requiring people to wear face coverings over their mouth and nose while inside enclosed, public spaces.

Read all of MLives coverage on the coronavirus at mlive.com/coronavirus.

Additional information is available at Michigan.gov/Coronavirus and CDC.gov/Coronavirus.

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7 indicators that show Michigans positive progress in the coronavirus crisis - MLive.com