I have found through my constant exposure to them through the years that the EUs intellectual cheerleaders among geopolitical analysts funded as they so often are by the very institution they are supposed to be impartially analyzing are as numerous as they are clueless.
At my political risk firm, the joke goes that if Brussels is for something entrusting its energy security to the Russians, confidently predicting that Europe will emerge as the dominant superpower in our new era, or ignoring the threat that China poses we should instinctively bet against them, so often and regularly are they proved mistaken. Beyond the mirth, there are two concrete reasons EU analysts are so unerringly wrong.
First, the corkscrew way EU cheerleaders reason dooms them from the start. In a sort of Kafkaesque example of magical thinking, they believe that while EU policy success confirms the upward trajectory of Brussels, failure also somehow means the bloc is about to arrive. Success obviously means the EU is headed in the right direction; failure, in a bizarre form of Hegelianism, means Brussels will inevitably learn from whatever it has done wrong, immediately and rationally make the necessary corrections, and move onward unto sunlit uplands. As ever with wish-fulfillment, these cheerleaders fool no one so much as themselves.
Their second major intellectual mistake is to confuse analysis with what they would like to happen. Brussels advocates invariably tout the death knell of populism, the EUs sworn enemy, because across Europe it embodies the very things Brussels most hates it is nationalistic, suspicious of experts, and democratic rather than elite-driven.
So, EU cheerleaders excitedly (but wrongly) thought European populism would be extinguished as a result of the pandemic crisis, when the vital need for the supremacy of technocrats became self-evident (at least to them). Instead, these experts were proved wrong time and again from vastly overstating the efficacy of lockdowns, to the quasi-religious primacy of mask-wearing, to wholly subordinating economic, social and democratic rights, all in the myopic service of a health dictatorship.
Next, with the invasion of Ukraine, these same experts felt populism would come to an end, because the overriding imperative of international cooperation (a supposed strength of Brussels) over the conflict was self-evident. Once again the EUs cheerleaders got it wrong, while populists learned the realist lesson that a countrys specific national and geostrategic interests are paramount; plus actually having an army neither of which are policy areas in which the EU is anything other than a pipsqueak.
What did Italys newly victorious Giorgia Meloni do, even before coming to power, that so threatens the Brussels establishment?
Dr. John C. Hulsman
Recent political facts confirm my political risk call, rather than that of my cheerleader foes. In Sweden, the rightist populist Sweden Democrats, rather than disappearing as most EU analysts had confidently predicted, now hold the balance of power. Even more importantly, last week in Italy there was an overwhelming populist rightist electoral victory over the remnants of the Brussels-installed center-left political establishment. One of the great powers of Europe, contrary to the fever-dream of the EUs favored pundits, decisively elected a government deeply skeptical about the very nature of Brussels itself.
Of course, confronted by the imminent election of a government not to its tastes, the EUs authoritarian visage, so often hidden behind banal verities about its innate goodness, became plain for all to see. Just a week before the Italian election, a grim European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, referencing serial troublemakers Poland and Hungary, threatened that Brussels had the tools to deal with wayward members not content to sing along with the EUs supranational, elite-driven hymnal.
What did Italys newly victorious Giorgia Meloni do, even before coming to power, that so threatens the Brussels establishment? Or, to put it another way, what explains the meteoric rise of her rightist populist Brothers of Italy party from 4 percent of the vote in 2018 to a dominant 26 percent now? First and foremost, Meloni crucially decided to stay out of the EU-imposed government of national unity run by Brussels darling Mario Draghi, which managed to last for only 18 storm-tossed months.
Meloni proved to be highly effective in opposition, artfully questioning whether Draghis authoritarian response to COVID was serving basic democratic ends, given his habitual governing by authoritarian decree rather than the usual parliamentary process. As ever, biography proved to be destiny; Draghi, a technocrat to his fingertips, thought the pandemic crisis too important to be left to the vagaries of democratic scrutiny. Meloni brilliantly made her commitment to democracy (despite the present hyperventilating of the mainstream media) abundantly clear, while yet another unelected, Brussels-imposed prime minister ignored any shred of democratic practice.
Second, this Brussels-imposed elite (incredibly, Meloni will be Italys first elected prime minister since the odious Silvio Berlusconi was ousted by the EU in 2011) has utterly failed at the policy level. Extraordinarily, Italian GDP per capita is lower now than it was before the country adopted the euro in 1999. This lost economic generation is only a few years away from irrelevance, more likely to end up a crumbling, irrelevant Greece than to emerge as the new Germany.
In just practical terms, EU tutelage has been an absolute disaster for Italy, and for a long while. It is little wonder its citizens have revolted against its EU-shackled establishment.
John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also a senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via johnhulsman.substack.com.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
Originally posted here:
The EU, not Meloni, is the threat to democracy - Arab News
- Joe Biden Should Terminate the Imperial Presidency - The National Interest Online [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- The year of Robin Swann, a one term populist president, Covid 19 and an uncertain future - Slugger O'Toole [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Mass Politics and 'Populism' in the World of Indian Languages - Kashmir Times [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- The Right and the Left Are Teaming Up to Lie About the Stimulus Bill - New York Magazine [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Populism in the Early Republican Period of Turkey - Modern Diplomacy [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Will The Debate Over $2,000 Stimulus Checks Help Democrats In Georgia? - FiveThirtyEight [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Trump fails to redraw politics' battle lines - The Week [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- With the worst possible PM at the worst possible time, Britain's got no chance of a happy new year - Sydney Morning Herald [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders' - The Guardian [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Bradford Kane's Book, Pitchfork Populism, Identifies the Roots of Trump's Turmoil - PRNewswire [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Antitrust Populism and the Consumer Welfare Standard: What Are We Actually Debating? - JD Supra [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Go ahead with Australian Open and open all borders too - The Australian Financial Review [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Misinformation, prolonged pandemic pose security threat in Canada: Brock experts - CBC.ca [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Europe's populists looked to Donald Trump. But after the Capitol violence, they're now looking away - SBS News [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- The New Version of Unreality in the Long Web of Conspiracy 19/01/2021 World - KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Companies are too big to be in the hands of businessmen, says researcher 1/18/2021 Worldwide - KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Opinion: How Donald Trump's populist narrative led directly to the assault on the US Capitol - Newshub [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Trevor Munroe | Developing a vaccine against the populist virus and its insurrectionary variant - Jamaica Gleaner [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia - The Conversation AU [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Trump Is Gone but Trumpism Is Rampant: The Globalisation of Populism - The Wire [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- The Guardian view of Trump's populism: weaponised and silenced by social media - The Guardian [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Is the populist tide ebbing? Despite Donald Trumps impending departure, growing global populism is still po - The Times of India Blog [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- No, conservatives shouldn't quit the Republican Party - New York Post [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Europe's Populists Ready to Seize on COVID Vaccination Bungle - Voice of America [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- RPT-COLUMN-Populist crowd fails to breach the silver fortress for now: Andy Home - Reuters [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Column: Populist crowd fails to breach the silver fortress for now - Reuters [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- How wealth inequality, populism have impacted stock market - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Bidens Policies Are Popular. What Does That Mean for Republicans? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The AltFi view on Gamestonk: Populism is coming to fintech - AltFi [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The other contagion: Why the US Capitol attack is a warning to populists - European Council on Foreign Relations [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The Problems With Populism Go Well Beyond Donald Trump - The Dispatch [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The Congress Partys politics of populism - The New Indian Express [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Populism in the pandemic age - New Statesman [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Why the GameStop affair is a perfect example of 'platform populism' - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- How Covid is fuelling the rise of European populism - The New European [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- What lies beneath - Islington Tribune newspaper website [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Cuomo and Newsom Symbolize the Rot of Corporate Democrats and the Dire Need for Progressive Populism - CounterPunch.org - CounterPunch [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Cuomo and Newsom symbolize corporate Democrat rot and the need for progressive populism - Salon [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- What actually is populism? And why does it have a bad ... [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Guest Column: Is There A Place For Conservative Populism In America? - FITSNews [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Populism: Examples and Definition | Philosophy Terms [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Populism - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- populism | History, Facts, & Examples | Britannica [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- After decades of dictatorship and corruption, Tunisia cannot thrive as a democracy on its own - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Limbaugh: The indispensable man in the forging of Trumpism - National Catholic Reporter [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Pope Francis visits Holocaust survivor's home in Rome to thank her - KHOU.com [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Brands have things to learn from both Trump and Biden's approach to populism - CampaignLive [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Populism and conservative media linked to COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs among both Republicans and Democrats - PsyPost [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- Democrats sought to impeach conservative populism instead of Trump | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- The new Draghi government and the fate of populism in Italy - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- Negative emotions are better predictors of populist attitudes - Mirage News [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Steering clear of the sirens of extreme populism - www.ekathimerini.com [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Opinion | Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford are showing America who the real populists are - Toronto Star [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Supporters of populist parties exhibit higher levels of political engagement than non-populist voters - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Save your local pub and help defeat populism - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Populism and counter-populism - The News International [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Beyond populism: Freebies have worked for Dravidian parties. But their real success was pulling TN out of the - The Times of India Blog [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- The Singur Agitation and the Contradictions of Agrarian Populism - Economic and Political Weekly [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Campaign podcast: Populism vs high art, Nike and what makes an Agency of the Year - CampaignLive [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Populism, politics, climate change and Mozart: Livestream lecture series will cover them all - CollingwoodToday.ca [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- A Pro-Europe, Anti-Populist Youth Party Scored Surprising Gains in the Dutch Elections - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Book Review: Partha Chatterjee's "I am the People" discusses populism & the rise of the Hindu Right - Frontline [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- The other transformation - The Sunday Guardian Live - The Sunday Guardian [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Covid-19 jabs are at the sharp end of political risk - The Straits Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Keir Starmer, one year on: a communication gap? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Sadiq Khan has mastered the art of woke populism - Telegraph.co.uk [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- The state fails and factional populism rises as the ANC bickers - Daily Maverick [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Europe's technocrats play into populist hands with their bungled Covid response - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Fukuyama: Theres similarities between populism of Trump and Kirchnerism - Buenos Aires Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Is populism going to fritter away over time as George W. Bush predicts? - Chicago Daily Herald [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Populism without the people - New Statesman [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Lingering populism considered ongoing threat to trade - Western Producer [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Opinion | Why Cant Republicans Be Populists? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Max Richter: Innovative composer on the glories of rave, and the perils of populism - Irish Examiner [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- "Fratelli tutti" and the challenge of neo-populism - Vatican News [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- Politics of Populism | Economic and Political Weekly - Economic and Political Weekly [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- The GOP Is Dead, Long Live American Populism Gab News [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- Populism and the World of Oz | National Museum of American ... [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- For these working stiffs, ambivalence rather than amore from the Pope - Crux Now [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2021]
- Walter Mondale Is Dead, But His Visionary Liberalism Lives On - The New Republic [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2021]