In Queensland, the federal election will be a matter of trust – The Sydney Morning Herald

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How good is Queensland?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison may well have some reason to curse that immortal rhetorical question about the state that delivered his Coalition an unlikely election-night victory in 2019.

After a tumultuous parliamentary sitting week in Canberra, Sunshine State MPs have delivered Morrison a government beset by conflict and dysfunction.

The week has also brought into sharp focus how, once again, Queensland will play a critical role at the coming federal election.

Same as it ever was.

Politically, Queensland is an enigma. Those in the Canberra-Sydney-Melbourne triumvirate have a habit of looking down upon the state as a refuge of rednecks, a wild frontier of right-wing populism easy wins for the conservatives.

But it is the state that delivered The Lodge to Labor in 2007.

It has only countenanced a Coalition state government in six of the 32 years since Tony Fitzgerald handed down his landmark report into political and police corruption in 1989.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuks tough-handed approach to pandemic health measures have been widely popular in the state, but have served as a lightning rod for the right to coalesce around a common purpose: freedom.

Scott Morrison sung Queenslands praises on election night 2019.Credit:David Gray/Bloomberg

As a result, the federal election in Queensland is shaping up as a quasi-battle between the Commonwealth and state governments, helped in no small part by border restrictions that have kept federal leaders out of the state for months.

Labors been out of office since 2013. It will be nearly nine years its been out of office, and theyre not really landing too many blows on whats looking like a tight Coalition government, said Paul Williams, a Queensland political expert from Griffith University.

Thats certainly the case in Queensland, so that will play into Labors hands if its a fight between Palaszczuk and Morrison, more than a fight between Morrison and [federal Labor leader Anthony] Albanese, particularly among older provincial voters who voted Labor last year on their gratitude for COVID management in 2020.

The last time Labor won from opposition, it was largely thanks to Queensland. And it certainly didnt hurt that the partys leader at the time, Kevin Rudd, was a Queenslander.

We know that Albanese is no Kevin Rudd, hes not cutting through to a sort of range of demographic cohorts, Williams said.

And, particularly in Queensland hes a drag.

Hes obviously probably better than [predecessor Bill] Shorten, but hes not performing at the standard where Labor should be able to flip Queensland at this point of the electoral cycle.

Theres no doubt Queenslanders respond better to one of their own, hence the importance of Palaszczuk in the coming federal poll.

Indeed, the state governments pandemic response is shaping as the defining line of attack against Labor in Queensland.

Voters gave Palaszczuk a stunning endorsement last year, returning her government for a third term and consigning the accidental Anna label to history.

But to the right, her tough stance has been like a red rag to a bull, with several of the Coalitions federal Queensland MPs leading the charge.

That response will include vaccine requirements for many public activities from December 17.

On Monday, five government senators crossed the floor to support One Nations anti-vaccination mandate bill.

Among them were Queensland LNP senators Matt Canavan, who sits in the Nationals party room in Canberra, and Liberal Gerard Rennick.

What the hell happened to My body, my choice? Canavan, who headlined an anti-abortion rally in Brisbane in May, said in the Senate on Monday.

Matt Canavan giving his speech in the Senate on Monday, with Pauline Hanson looking on remotely.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Why are we making pregnant women undergo a medical procedure that they dont want to have? That is what these laws are doing.

Then, on Wednesday, Dawson MP George Christensen was widely condemned for appearing to condone, if not encourage, civil disobedience in response to state governments public health measures.

While an extreme example, it was part of a theme for the Morrison government, which has made a habit of taking the fight to Labor state governments since the start of the pandemic.

Mandates apply in every other state, but he will single out Queensland, said John Mickel, a political scientist at the Queensland University of Technology.

Mickel, a former Queensland parliamentary speaker and member of the Beattie state Labor ministry, said there were two reasons for this approach.

One is to try to show Queenslanders, or undermine Labors position in Queensland, or at least maintain [Morrisons] own position, he said.

And the second reason, and why you got that equivocal answer the other day when it came to violence and this whole anti-vaxxer movement, where he said its about time you could go into a coffee shop in Queensland.

He didnt say that about Tasmania, South Australia, New South Wales, because that doesnt suit his purposes, but the purposes it does fit in Queensland are [Clive] Palmer, [Pauline] Hanson and [Campbell] Newman and they represent the attack on the Libs from the right.

As a result, Williams said, the likes of Christensen, Canavan and Rennick were signalling to the right-wing populists that they did not need to abandon the LNP.

The LNP would be far more worried by the right-wing populists than they are the Labor Party, Williams said.

And those right-wing populists are uniting.

Former foes Newman and Palmer announced a preference deal on Tuesday, an alliance that would have been unthinkable not that long ago.

Former Queensland premier Campbell Newman and billionaire Clive Palmer of the United Australia Party will trade party preferences at the next election.Credit:Zach Hope

Mickel said their success or otherwise would ultimately be if they could deliver the preferences to the LNP.

Palmer can deliver the money, but can he deliver the preferences? Now, certainly in 2019, they showed they could because the National Party vote didnt move much, he said.

What happened was Labor got drubbed when the minor parties added to their primary vote and then walked it straight across to the LNP.

Now, can they repeat that exercise? And thats what the winks and nods that are going on are all about.

But the flirtation with the fringes was not without its risks for the LNP.

Christensens vow to not be beholden to party room discipline when voting in the House of Representatives, for example, had the potential to destabilise the Morrison government.

With Christensens vote not assured, the Coalitions razor-thin majority comes into sharp focus. Including Christensen and the Speaker (another Queenslander, Andrew Wallace), the Coalition controls 76 of the House of Representatives 151 members.

If Christensen were to cross the floor, the Morrison government would require the support of Labor or a crossbencher to pass legislation.

Its damaging the government, because the government looks uneven, Mickel said.

Somebody said it looks like part of the days of the McMahon government.

Internal warfare, unable to pass legislation, lack of leadership to try to bring the disparate or the warring parties together. If it carries on, it presents an image of incompetence about the government.

But is that something Labor can capitalise on in Queensland?

They will if Albanese can capitalise on it, Mickel said.

What Albanese needs to do is sharpen up his line of attack. His line of attack at the moment is probably, according to some of the insiders, far too verbose.

Worse for Morrison, Mickel said, was the emerging narrative surrounding his trustworthiness.

That was turbocharged in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron outright accusing him of lying in the lead-up to the sinking of the countries submarine deal.

The Betoota Advocate had a political insiders thing of Scotty from Marketing and that was a bit of a giggle for those who know politics, he said.

When Rudd came back from [the 2009 UN climate change summit in] Copenhagen, he was gutted and it may be that when Morrison came back from Glasgow, he was gutted not from the climate experience, but from Macron giving him that character assessment.

Because from then on, that whole you cant trust this guy theme has really taken off.

French President Emmanuel Macrons comments to Australian journalists in Rome would define Scott Morrisons European trip.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Whether that would play out at the ballot box in Queensland was another matter.

It could do, but its always the starting for everybody that all politicians lie, Mickel said.

Its going to come down to a question of do they trust this character? And if they dont, thats when hes in trouble.

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In Queensland, the federal election will be a matter of trust - The Sydney Morning Herald