The reports about Luiz Incio Lula da Silvas impending comeback as Brazilian president verged on the ecstatic in the week before last Sundays vote. He was after all, fourteen points ahead of his populist rival, incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro, in the last opinion poll before the vote.
But the polls were wrong. Lula got a respectable 48% of the vote, but he was only five points ahead of Bolsonaro at 43%, and in Brazilian politics the candidates in the lead often fall behind in the second round. The long anticipated global decline and fall of the hard-right populist movement has been at least postponed.
This is particularly relevant to the United States, where Donald Trump constantly praises Bolsonaro as Tropical Trump. Lula is to the left of Joe Biden, but both men are ageing stalwarts of the centre-left who have made political comebacks but already feel a little bit like yesterdays news.
What has already happened in this first-round presidential election in Brazil is a triumph of the hard right in the simultaneous Congressional elections that would make another Lula presidency very difficult. Joe Biden may face similar difficulties after next months US mid-term Congressional elections, if polling predictions are right..
Both men have essentially promised a return to the sensible, moderate centre-left politics of yore, and that doesnt seem to be setting hearts aflame in either country. To be fair, however, Lula bears an additional handicap: a criminal conviction.
I spent a whole day with Lula long ago in So Paulos car-making suburb of So Bernardo do Campo, when he was genuinely a horny-handed son of toil and a trade union organiser. He certainly seemed to be an honest man then, even a poor man, but he was freed from jail only last year after serving part of a twelve-year sentence for corruption in office.
It wasnt a lot of money and the charges may have been trumped up: the judge who brought them and sent Lula to jail, Sergio Moro, was later given a post in Bolsonaros government as justice minister. On the other hand, Lula was not exonerated last year; he was released because of procedural irregularities in the case. He could even face trial again.
So there is no clear evidence that the populist wave is subsiding. Bolsonaro could get a second term, Trump could come back in the United States, Modi is not losing his grip in India. Orbn won a landslide re-election victory in Hungary last month, a hard-right coalition won last months election in Italy, Boris Johnson might even make a comeback in the UK.
The driving force in this populist wave is a thinly disguised alliance between a very rich elite and the resentful, downwardly-mobile parts of the old middle and working classes. The emotional cement that holds it together involves a strong dose of extreme religion, deep social conservatism (e.g. homophobia), ultra-nationalism, and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Populism will be with us for some time yet, and it may even spread a bit. Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdoan may cover the rest of the distance to full populism as the countrys economic problems worsen, and France might have gone full populist last year if the French hard-right parties had managed to cooperate. But thats only half the story.
The other side is parties of the democratic left that are winning power in almost all the rest of Latin America Alberto Fernndez in Argentina (2019), Luis Arce in Bolivia (2020), Pedro Castillo in Peru and Gabriel Boric in Chile (2021), Xiomara Castro in Honduras (2022), and most recently Gustavo Petro in Columbia.
Its also noteworthy that only three of the European Unions 27 members currently have populist governments: Italy, Poland and Hungary. Moreover, the new Italian coalition may not last long, and Polands populism is for domestic affairs only: Polish populists are not admirers of Vladimir Putin.
In Asia and Africa, the populist formula has not been deployed in politics at all except in India. As a recently refurbished political technique it is having some successes, but every new political technique loses its freshness after a while.
And neither Lula nor Biden has lost their next elections yet.
Gwynne Dyers new book is The Shortest History of War.
The rest is here:
DYER: Progress and decline of populism Red Deer Advocate - Red Deer Advocate
- Joe Biden Should Terminate the Imperial Presidency - The National Interest Online [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- The year of Robin Swann, a one term populist president, Covid 19 and an uncertain future - Slugger O'Toole [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Mass Politics and 'Populism' in the World of Indian Languages - Kashmir Times [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- The Right and the Left Are Teaming Up to Lie About the Stimulus Bill - New York Magazine [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Populism in the Early Republican Period of Turkey - Modern Diplomacy [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2020] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2020]
- Will The Debate Over $2,000 Stimulus Checks Help Democrats In Georgia? - FiveThirtyEight [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Trump fails to redraw politics' battle lines - The Week [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- With the worst possible PM at the worst possible time, Britain's got no chance of a happy new year - Sydney Morning Herald [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders' - The Guardian [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Bradford Kane's Book, Pitchfork Populism, Identifies the Roots of Trump's Turmoil - PRNewswire [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Antitrust Populism and the Consumer Welfare Standard: What Are We Actually Debating? - JD Supra [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2021]
- Go ahead with Australian Open and open all borders too - The Australian Financial Review [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Misinformation, prolonged pandemic pose security threat in Canada: Brock experts - CBC.ca [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Europe's populists looked to Donald Trump. But after the Capitol violence, they're now looking away - SBS News [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- The New Version of Unreality in the Long Web of Conspiracy 19/01/2021 World - KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Companies are too big to be in the hands of businessmen, says researcher 1/18/2021 Worldwide - KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Opinion: How Donald Trump's populist narrative led directly to the assault on the US Capitol - Newshub [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Trevor Munroe | Developing a vaccine against the populist virus and its insurrectionary variant - Jamaica Gleaner [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia - The Conversation AU [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Trump Is Gone but Trumpism Is Rampant: The Globalisation of Populism - The Wire [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- The Guardian view of Trump's populism: weaponised and silenced by social media - The Guardian [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- Is the populist tide ebbing? Despite Donald Trumps impending departure, growing global populism is still po - The Times of India Blog [Last Updated On: January 19th, 2021] [Originally Added On: January 19th, 2021]
- No, conservatives shouldn't quit the Republican Party - New York Post [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Europe's Populists Ready to Seize on COVID Vaccination Bungle - Voice of America [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- RPT-COLUMN-Populist crowd fails to breach the silver fortress for now: Andy Home - Reuters [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Column: Populist crowd fails to breach the silver fortress for now - Reuters [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- How wealth inequality, populism have impacted stock market - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Bidens Policies Are Popular. What Does That Mean for Republicans? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The AltFi view on Gamestonk: Populism is coming to fintech - AltFi [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The other contagion: Why the US Capitol attack is a warning to populists - European Council on Foreign Relations [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The Problems With Populism Go Well Beyond Donald Trump - The Dispatch [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- The Congress Partys politics of populism - The New Indian Express [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Populism in the pandemic age - New Statesman [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- Why the GameStop affair is a perfect example of 'platform populism' - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2021]
- How Covid is fuelling the rise of European populism - The New European [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- What lies beneath - Islington Tribune newspaper website [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Cuomo and Newsom Symbolize the Rot of Corporate Democrats and the Dire Need for Progressive Populism - CounterPunch.org - CounterPunch [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Cuomo and Newsom symbolize corporate Democrat rot and the need for progressive populism - Salon [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- What actually is populism? And why does it have a bad ... [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Guest Column: Is There A Place For Conservative Populism In America? - FITSNews [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Populism: Examples and Definition | Philosophy Terms [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- Populism - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- populism | History, Facts, & Examples | Britannica [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2021]
- After decades of dictatorship and corruption, Tunisia cannot thrive as a democracy on its own - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Limbaugh: The indispensable man in the forging of Trumpism - National Catholic Reporter [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Pope Francis visits Holocaust survivor's home in Rome to thank her - KHOU.com [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Brands have things to learn from both Trump and Biden's approach to populism - CampaignLive [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2021]
- Populism and conservative media linked to COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs among both Republicans and Democrats - PsyPost [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- Democrats sought to impeach conservative populism instead of Trump | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- The new Draghi government and the fate of populism in Italy - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2021] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2021]
- Negative emotions are better predictors of populist attitudes - Mirage News [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Steering clear of the sirens of extreme populism - www.ekathimerini.com [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Opinion | Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford are showing America who the real populists are - Toronto Star [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Supporters of populist parties exhibit higher levels of political engagement than non-populist voters - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Save your local pub and help defeat populism - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Populism and counter-populism - The News International [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- Beyond populism: Freebies have worked for Dravidian parties. But their real success was pulling TN out of the - The Times of India Blog [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2021]
- The Singur Agitation and the Contradictions of Agrarian Populism - Economic and Political Weekly [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Campaign podcast: Populism vs high art, Nike and what makes an Agency of the Year - CampaignLive [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Populism, politics, climate change and Mozart: Livestream lecture series will cover them all - CollingwoodToday.ca [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- A Pro-Europe, Anti-Populist Youth Party Scored Surprising Gains in the Dutch Elections - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- Book Review: Partha Chatterjee's "I am the People" discusses populism & the rise of the Hindu Right - Frontline [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2021]
- The other transformation - The Sunday Guardian Live - The Sunday Guardian [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Covid-19 jabs are at the sharp end of political risk - The Straits Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Keir Starmer, one year on: a communication gap? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Sadiq Khan has mastered the art of woke populism - Telegraph.co.uk [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- The state fails and factional populism rises as the ANC bickers - Daily Maverick [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Europe's technocrats play into populist hands with their bungled Covid response - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Fukuyama: Theres similarities between populism of Trump and Kirchnerism - Buenos Aires Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Is populism going to fritter away over time as George W. Bush predicts? - Chicago Daily Herald [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Populism without the people - New Statesman [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Lingering populism considered ongoing threat to trade - Western Producer [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Opinion | Why Cant Republicans Be Populists? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2021] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2021]
- Max Richter: Innovative composer on the glories of rave, and the perils of populism - Irish Examiner [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- "Fratelli tutti" and the challenge of neo-populism - Vatican News [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- Politics of Populism | Economic and Political Weekly - Economic and Political Weekly [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- The GOP Is Dead, Long Live American Populism Gab News [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- Populism and the World of Oz | National Museum of American ... [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2021]
- For these working stiffs, ambivalence rather than amore from the Pope - Crux Now [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2021]
- Walter Mondale Is Dead, But His Visionary Liberalism Lives On - The New Republic [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2021] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2021]