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Category Archives: Yahoo
Inflation Hedge or Not, Bitcoin’s True Value Is Separation of Money and State – Yahoo Finance
Posted: August 29, 2022 at 8:20 am
For the first week in a while, the non-crypto world was louder than the crypto world.
Everyone is talking about:
Meanwhile, no one is talking about if bitcoin (BTC) is or isnt an inflation hedge. Thankfully (unthankfully?) each of the things everyone is talking about is (at least loosely) tied to inflation in some way. So Ill do it. Ill write about if bitcoin is or isnt an inflation hedge.
Because everything is about inflation and everything is about bitcoin (even things that arent about bitcoin). Stochastic means random, by the way.
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First off, the U.S. government isnt paying off everyone's student loans. What the Biden administration announced was that people who both hold federal government student loans and earn less than $125,000 a year will have either $10,000 or $20,000 of their student loan balance forgiven. There are nitty-gritty details (which you can get by listening to this NASFAA podcast), but the main question we want to answer is if this is inflationary or not.
Heres an argument that it will be: Canceling student loan debt will put money in the pockets of Americans and those Americans will use that money to buy more immediately. The immediate consumption bump will meaningfully contribute to more inflation.
Heres an argument that it will not be: Canceling student loan debt will leave money in the pockets of Americans and those Americans will use that money to consume more gradually over the course of their lives. The gradual consumption bump wont meaningfully contribute to more inflation.
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I very much like the argument that canceling student debt wont be immediately inflationary. Yes, the coronavirus pandemic stimulus checks were, but there is an important psychological difference between handing someone a $3,200 check and handing them an official letter saying they owe $10,000 less on an outstanding loan.
No, probably not. Probably the opposite. While the White House introduced a program that isnt obviously inflationary on the surface, the Federal Reserve chair is still digging deep for his Volcker (without going full Volcker) moment. When Powell faced central bankers, economists and the American people Friday morning with his prepared remarks in Jackson, Wyoming, he said that history cautions against prematurely loosening policy, which basically means, Were going to stay the course because if we change course again, youre really not going to believe us anymore.
Powell (and the Fed) is also digging deep for credibility. CoinDesks Adam B. Levine, host of the Markets Daily podcast, made one of the best arguments for that in last weeks episode where he said:
... [H]istory suggests that the [Feds] decision [on interest rates] will remain far below the [necessary] interest rate which is required to deal with inflation. For much of the 1970s and 1980s, the last time we saw comparable price inflation, the rate that the Fed set was somewhere between 8% [and] 20%, many times higher than what the Fed is suggesting now. So while central banks and markets will play games with each other, it may all be for show to look serious about the problem when the proposed solution doesnt really have a chance to solve anything.
What Adam Levine is using to make that assertion is the Taylor rule, a rule of thumb used by central banks to set interest rates at a level that will effectively combat inflation. By his estimation, the Taylor rule suggests that rates need to be >9% to even begin to deal with the behavioral changes long-term rising inflation leads to. I tend to agree with Levine and dont think that the markets believe policymakers anymore.
Powell is stuck between a rock and a hard place (at least hes stuck between some really nice looking rocks in Jackson Hole).
Pozsar makes it clear in the aforementioned research note that he thinks so. I think the note is worth reading in full, but here is a summary in case you dont read it:
Supply is outpacing demand because we went from a world where a) cheap immigrant labor in the U.S., b) cheap goods from China and c) cheap Russian gas propped up low inflation to a world where a) nativist immigration policies drove wage pressures in the U.S., b) Chinas zero-COVID-19 policy hurt the flow of cheap goods and c) a Russian war in Ukraine has led to skyrocketing gas prices in Europe prop up high inflation.
Heres the punctuating quote:
Welcome to the war economy
where heads of state matter more than heads of central banks.
OK we didnt solve inflation last week, so now onto cryptos preeminent inflation hedge: bitcoin. With inflationary forces still out there, investors are thinking about how best to protect themselves. Is bitcoin a way to do that?
Im not sure. From a market perspective, no, not at all. In recent memory, bitcoin has been correlated with stocks. Stocks arent supposed to be inflation hedges; less-risky things like gold and commodities are. So bitcoins price following (or leading) stocks makes bitcoin not really appear like an inflation hedge.
There are two threads worth following here.
First, maybe inflation isnt about the price of goods increasing, its about currency debasement. Some variation of this chart is pretty popular in bitcoin circles:
Global M2 and bitcoins price (@mrblonde_macro)
As Global M2 the amount of money in circulation changes year over year, it appears that bitcoins market value follows. In short, as economies introduce money into circulation, bitcoins price goes up because the additional money in circulation dilutes the rest of the existing money in circulation. So this supports the idea that bitcoin is a hedge against currency debasement (a fancy way to describe the dilution of money in circulation).
Im not sure the data strongly supports this idea. Sure, theres a visual relationship in the previous chart, but the rolling 30-month correlation coefficient between U.S. M2 and bitcoins value moves from negative to slightly positive (see the two following charts). Statistically, this doesnt really tell you anything. Maybe the move is due to bitcoin maturing over time as it approaches its final resting place as an inflation hedge? I know the U.S. doesnt stand in for the entire world economy, but still.
Year-over-year change of U.S. M2 and bitcoin market capitalization (FRED, TradingView)
30-month rolling correlation between M2 and Bitcoin (FRED, TradingView)
Second, and more concretely, if you agree that we are in a war economy where heads of state matter more than heads of central banks, bitcoin is probably investable simply because it is separate from the heads of state. Im not saying bitcoins price is immune to the acts of heads of state, but I am saying that bitcoin isnt issued by any country and that the broader network a) doesnt need any particular country and b) is resilient enough to buck China banning it.
So, in the event that bitcoin doesnt behave as an inflation hedge, there might be something to be said for it acting as a way to bet on the separation of money and state.
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Fantasy Football: Which skill-position players should you consider stacking in 2022 drafts? – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
Special to Yahoo Sports
Fantasy managers are likely familiar with the phrase stacking. The term describes having two players from the same NFL team in your fantasy lineup. In most cases, stacking has been used to express a quarterback paired with one of his wide receivers. However, Im going to look at a different, less thought-about version of this idea: The RB/WR, or skill position stack. This concept is based on the same principles as the QB/WR stack but instead involves pairing a teams top running back and receiver.
In this article, Ill try and answer the question: when can the skill position stack be a potentially viable fantasy strategy, and when should you avoid it?
One note before we get started: I defined a skill position stack as an RB and WR on the same team that both had an ADP in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts, as the early rounds are when the strategy of stacking is a real question (because you would be tying your teams best players to one offense). In later rounds, one of the players in the stack might be a FLEX or off the bench for your team, so it is less of a risk to try it out. To the data!
Lets first examine some of the RB/WR stacks that would have been beneficial for your team if you employed them. Since 2019, there have been a total of 26 possible skill position stacks (9 in 2019, 8 in 2020 and 9 in 2021). Of these, 11 were a success, which I generously defined as having both the running back and wide receiver in the stack finishing in the top-20 at their position in fantasy points per game (minimum 10 games played).
Successful skill position stacks, fantasy football 2019. (Photo by 4for4.com)
Heres a look at the stacks which I considered to be a success from the 2019-20 NFL season. The thing that jumps off the page most is that all four of these combos were on solid offenses with a good quarterback.
2019 NFL Offensive Rankings. (Photo by 4for4.com)
In the above graph, we can see that the four teams in question all had above-average passing offenses, and most were also strong in the run game. This makes logical sense, as better offenses will score more points resulting in more players being fantasy-relevant.
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Another point of interest is that all of the receivers in the successful stacks were the clear top dog in their receiving rooms nobody was a threat to take volume away from guys like Davante Adams and Michael Thomas. This is another thing we should look out for when drafting stacks after all, if were funneling a lot of draft capital into one NFL offense, it would be nice to make sure that both the RB and WR see as much volume as possible.
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It might seem a little basic, but one final note is that all eight of these players were some of the best at their position from a pure football standpoint. Us fantasy players can sometimes get swept up into hype trains and inflate the value of a player who might not actually be that good (I call this the Kenyan Drake effect), so it is good to know that with skill positions stacks, managers shouldnt overthink it.
Successful skill position stacks 2020. (Photo by 4for4.com)
Once again, we can see that these three successes all came from teams with good quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are all arguably top-10 QBs in the league.
2022 NFL offensive rankings. (Photo by 4for4.com)
While the Cowboys seem to be a bit of an outlier here, this is likely explained by Dak Prescotts unfortunate Week 5 injury in 2020 that threw the Dallas offense off in a big way. It makes sense that Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott barely made it into the top 20 as the height of their production probably came in the first few weeks with Prescott.
We can also add another bit of nuance to a trend we observed in 2019s data. While Adam Thielen was not the clear alpha receiver on the 2020 Vikings (he competed with Justin Jefferson for targets), he scored a whopping 14 touchdowns, telling us that being a good red-zone threat might be something to look out for in Skill Position stacks. This notion is reflected in Davante Adams consistent presence on these lists, as he is second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns over the past three seasons.
Successful Skill position stacks 2021. (Photo by 4for4.com)
I find it very intriguing that the same teams keep on popping up on the lists. While the receivers for the Cowboys and Vikings are different from before, this is likely because they simply supplanted another person as the No. 1 receiver. Our new additions to the list, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, also fit the mold of what weve discovered to be a good RB/WR stack very well.
2021 NFL Offensive Rankings. (Photo by 4for4.com)
We can see that Ekeler and Allen check all the boxes that were looking for: Good offense, good quarterback, clear top targets and good at football.
Now that weve looked at some of the examples of RB/WR stacks that did pan out for your fantasy team, lets examine some of the duos that didnt. Given there are a lot more failures than successes, Ill simply be highlighting some general takeaways instead of getting too in-depth.
This shouldnt come as too much of a surprise, but the unsuccessful skill position stacks followed the opposite of the trends we observed in the successful ones. As an example, lets look at the 2021 Chicago Bears. Running back David Montgomery (RB15) and wideout Allen Robinson (WR12) were both drafted in the top 36 but did not live up to their ADP. Montgomery finished as the RB21 (13 games played), while Robinson was the WR81 (12 games played).
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First things first, the Bears duo failed to meet our primary requirement: Chicago was not a good offense by any metric last season, having a very messy QB situation that managers should have been wary of. Unsurprisingly, they finished the season bottom-10 in both yards per game and points per game. While it was admittedly difficult to predict, Robinson was overtaken in the Bears WR depth chart by Darnell Mooney last season and did not lead the team in targets, meaning our second criterion was also not satisfied. This makes the 21 Bears a great example of what to avoid when considering a skill position stack.
One of the biggest side effects of any form of stack is the creation of a potentially boom-or-bust fantasy lineup. Because two of your best players will be teammates, the success of their team in any given week will have a larger impact. This further emphasizes the importance of picking RB/WR stacks on good teams, as wed like for the offense to be as consistent as possible.
Lets look at another case study, this time a successful duo from 2021: Davante Adams and Aaron Jones.
Aaron Jones and Davante Adams fantasy finishes in 2021. (Photo by 4for4.com)
Here, we can see how the high tide raises all ships idea plays out in skill position stacks. Out of Davantes 11 top-24 finishes last season, Jones finished in the top-24 that same week eight times. This makes a lot of sense when the Packers dropped 45 points on the Bears in Week 14, Adams and Jones each finishing as top-10 options checks out. On the other hand, when the Packers got embarrassed by the Saints by a score of 38-3 in Week 1, it is understandable that both Adams and Jones were awful for fantasy.
This idea of weekly variability in RB/WR stacks will likely influence your in-season management. For example, if your stack has a matchup against a difficult defense that has a chance of being a low-scoring slugfest, it is possible that neither player in the stack is able to produce for your team and you might have to consider benching them. It is obviously difficult to bench a superstar la Davante Adams, so in drafts, one way you could try and build around a stack is to surround them with high-floor players as opposed to volatile ones (such as picking someone like Brandin Cooks over DK Metcalf). That way, the week-by-week inconsistency of the stack will be offset by dependable players, creating a one-two punch that will steady the course for your team.
Now that weve established some things that we want and dont want in RB/WR stacks, we can apply our knowledge to 2022 and see if there are any worth considering.
Potential Skill position stacks, 2022. (Photo by 4for4.com)
Here are the seven possible skill position stacks you could go with this season. Lets break these down one by one.
This Cardinals tandem is an interesting case study. The question of whether or not the Arizona offense will be good is a tricky one to answer, as they have been rather up and down with Kyler Murray under center. However, even if they manage to be consistent for the whole season, superstar receiver DeAndre Hopkins is set to return from suspension in Week 7 and be the top target through the air once again. This means that Hollywood will likely see a drop-off in production at the end of the year, so I would avoid this Cardinals skill position stack this season.
Whether you believe in the Panthers' RB/WR stack is directly tied to your opinions on Baker Mayfield. If you think Baker has a career resurgence in Carolina (which I personally think will happen), then this stack should work out well. When healthy, CMC is arguably the best fantasy asset in the NFL, and DJ Moore is an excellent receiver with three straight 1,000-yard seasons despite horrible quarterback play. If you grab McCaffrey with the first few picks in your draft and add Moore as the WR2 for your team in the third or fourth round, it could be a potentially excellent combination.
However, if you dont think Baker is the answer for the Panthers, then stay away from this one.
This is probably the most star-studded duo on our list. Mixon and Chase are both household names that have proven to be elite fantasy players already. They are also on a great offense with a still-improving quarterback in Joe Burrow. However, Chase will be forced to compete for targets with Tee Higgins, who is being drafted rather high in fantasy as well (WR10). Pair this with potential regression for Chase (he had seven 40+ yard touchdowns last season), and I would be a little nervous about pairing Mixon and Chase together as they would have to be RB1 and WR1 for your team. That is a little too much invested in one offense for me to be comfortable.
This combo just missed out on being on the list last season while Taylor was the RB1, Pittman was just outside the top-20 at the receiver position. However, with Matt Ryan coming in and replacing Carson Wentz at quarterback for Indy, this has the makings of a very strong stack. Taylor is obviously an elite runner, and Pittman is all alone at the top of the Colts' WR depth chart (sorry to the Keke Coutee truthers). Matty Ice will almost certainly be an upgrade over Wentz, so this stack is a more bankable version of the Panthers one if you are able to take Taylor with the 1.01 and then add Pittman as a WR2, it will certainly not hurt your team.
One of our stacking models from last season, this Chargers duo could very likely repeat as a stack that works. The main factor that their success will depend on is Mike Williams. If Mikey Dubs, who is currently being drafted right behind Allen as the WR12, can finally put it all together and be a consistent fantasy option, then he might actually be a better option than Allen for this stack. Given how good Justin Herbert is, I would be comfortable pairing Ekeler with either of the two LA receivers, but only as your WR2. For example, you could start your draft taking Ekeler in the first, some other elite receiver in the second (like CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill), and then Allen or Williams in the third.
Unfortunately, while the Vikings have produced incredibly successful skill position stacks of late, this one is probably impossible to achieve as both Cook and Jefferson are firmly going in the first round of fantasy drafts this year.
Last but certainly not least, Lenny and Evans are my favorite RB/WR stack for this year. In his storied career, Tom Brady has never really had an elite skill position combo like this one, and it could be dynamite. With Ronald Jones now in Kansas City, Fournette will be the bellcow for Tampa and see all of the work out of the backfield. With Chris Godwin still recovering from an ACL tear and Rob Gronkowski now retired, Evans will similarly be the indisputable top target for the GOAT. Given their ADPs, you could potentially start your draft with a top-5 player like Derrick Henry or Cooper Kupp in the first, and then take Evans and Fournette in the second and third rounds. This is a stack to actively pursue in 2022.
Early-round RB/WR stacking is an intriguing strategy that could work out many different ways for your team.
The successful skill position stacks tend to come from elite offenses where the players involved are the clear top options at their position.
Conversely, the unsuccessful stacks have generally been due to poor quarterback play and having too much invested in a bad offense.
With stacks come potential volatility for your lineup. To remedy this, it would be wise to load up on high-floor players surrounding your stack to ensure your team is not a complete bust in bad weeks.
While there are some stacks to stay away from this season, there are a few RB/WR combos that fit the bill of being successful and could add a dynamic and exciting twist to your fantasy lineup.
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
Pranav is a 17-year-old from Massachusetts. When hes not cheering for the Patriots, he can be found looking at various NFL and NBA-related statistics. He has played fantasy football since he was seven and enjoys working with numbers and data.
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Civil rights icon Andrew Young cites Inflation Reduction Act as a sign of progress – Yahoo Finance
Posted: at 8:20 am
During a recent episode of "Influencers with Andy Serwer," civil rights activist and former ambassador to the United Nations Andrew Young praised the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.
It's taken us a long time, Young told Yahoo Finance. But Joe Biden got a bill passed last night, but we've been moving in this direction for a long time.
The Inflation Reduction Act, which President Biden signed into law last week, invests roughly $375 billion into fighting climate change over the next decade. It also promises to cap prescription drug costs at $2,000 out-of-pocket annually for Medicare recipients, and imposes a new minimum tax on major corporations.
Jan 21, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; Former US United Nations Ambassador and Civil Rights leader Andrew Young shown at the game between the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks on MLK Day at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Born and raised in New Orleans, Young served as a pastor and became a leader in the civil rights movement of the 1960s. He served as the executive director of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference and worked closely with Dr. Martin Luther King on various civil rights campaigns. He also served as the U.S. Congressman from Georgia, the first African American Ambassador to the United Nations, and as the 55th mayor of Atlanta.
Young pointed to the Inflation Reduction Act as a sign of progress. He explained that despite occasional barriers, societal progress is ultimately certain.
Change is inevitable, Young reflected. The 100 million cells in your body are constantly in motion. And we have people who don't understand that progress, motion, is inevitable. And you cannot stop it. You can't stop the world from spinning. And the more it spins, and the more the genes and cells in our bodies multiply.
Apart from his civil rights work, Young has participated in other social causes. For example, he once toured Nigeria with CNN founder Ted Turner to combat the polio epidemic. Though UNICEF declared Africa polio-free in 2020 after Nigeria reported zero new wild polio cases, the virus has since resurfaced on the continent. Young insists the virus eradication and return are in keeping with his view on progress.
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And so we wiped out polio, it looks like it's sneaking back now, right? Young remarked. But the earth is a constant. Volatile in motion, operation. It's not going to stay the same.
In recent years, the United States has experienced a precipitous rise in polarization. Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years, according to Pew Research Data from 2021. Americans have become similarly divided on the subject of vaccines. For instance, adults who have not received the COVID-19 vaccine are roughly three times more likely to lean Republican than Democrat, according to a 2021 analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Some say increases in vaccine hesitancy have contributed to the resurgence of polio, which has recently appeared in the New York area.
Young stated that Americas divisiveness boils down to one simple dichotomy.
It is intelligence versus ignorance, he asserted. My office downtown is full of globes, and they're all spinning. It reminds me that nothing keeps still in this universe. Nothing.
Dylan Croll is a reporter and researcher at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @CrollonPatrol.
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Lions’ African American coaches have been stars of ‘Hard Knocks’ and it could earn them bigger opportunities – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
The coaching star of HBOs "Hard Knocks" this season was supposed to be Detroit Lions head man Dan Campbell, he of both the equally oversized frame and personality. The gravelly voice. The unpredictable twists in his speeches. The willingness to do up-downs with the players.
The guy is, unquestionably, a unique force of personality that producers must have hoped would somehow make a three-win team for a franchise with one playoff victory in 65 seasons worth watching.
And Campbell has delivered his part as Must-See TV.
Yet the coaching figures who are producing the most compelling storylines come from Campbells staff of assistants.
Namely Aaron Glenn, Duce Staley and Kelvin Sheppard, each of whom, like Campbell, is a former NFL player. They are also, unlike Campbell, African Americans.
And that, for the league, has to be welcome news.
The Lions may have the most diverse coaching staff in a league that is so desperate for diversity that it has numerous rules, clumsy protocols and even draft-pick incentivized reward programs to encourage the hiring of coaches and front-office personnel who reflect the racial make-up of the players.
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Whether every fan cares about this isnt the issue. The NFL does, incredibly so. Its important to the league. The goal is to make it so job candidates are seen for the caliber of their ability, experience and potential and not ignored because they dont fit the historic vision of head coach.
Despite decades of trying, the NFL still struggles with it. And even those who prefer the best person gets the job and couldnt care less what their favorite team's staff looks like as long as it delivers victories would have to acknowledge that the current system has done a chronically poor job of identifying highly qualified non-white coaches.
Well, publicity often leads to promotion and "Hard Knocks" is making a coaching name and a potential career boost for some Lions staffers.
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Detroit has 22 assistant coaches for the offense, defense and special teams. Eleven of them are African Americans. The front office is led by general manager Brad Holmes, who is also African American, and has unearthed some excellent late-round draft picks.
Assistant head coach and running backs coach Duce Staley is one of the Detroit Lions' African American assistants shining on this season of "Hard Knocks." (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Campbell has put a premium on hiring former players as coaches, and in a league where the majority of the rosters are made up of African Americans, this is the natural result. Or should be.
It includes Glenn, 50, who spent 15 seasons in the league, most notably as a Pro Bowl defensive back with the New York Jets, serving as defensive coordinator.
There is Staley, 47, a 10-year vet as a bruising rusher, who is the Lions' assistant head coach and handles the running backs.
Meanwhile, Sheppard, 34, spent eight seasons as a linebacker bouncing around the league and got into coaching only last year, when Campbell plucked him off the support staff at LSU.
Glenn has come across as passionate (to say the least), organized and clearly not just respected but beloved by his players. He commands attention through his professionalism and charisma.
The proof of his ability to become a head coach will be determined by how his defense performs this season, as it should. But its impossible to watch him work behind the scenes and not see someone who projects as more than capable of running his own team.
Staley is no different. One recurring storyline has been Staley trying to coach D'Andre Swift not just how to run, but to have the mentality needed to run inside and maximize his abilities. Its a rare unfettered look at pure coaching, ups and downs alike, both mental and strategic. If Swift shines this season, Staleys coaching talents will be clear.
Then there is the excellent play of rookie linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, who was drafted in the sixth round. It features Sheppard teaching and encouraging Rodriguez, and a blunt and powerful speech by Sheppard challenging his veterans to match the rookie's intensity and warning them that one of them is about to lose their starting spot.
There are more examples, of course, including work by assistants such as Mark Brunell and Hank Fraley, who are white. Race isnt a focus on the show. Which is great.
In a perfect world, none of this should matter or should stand out. In a perfect world, this isnt even discussed.
NFL coaches should be great coaches, of course. This is dog-bites-man type stuff. Yet "Hard Knocks" is presenting impressive moments to decision-makers in the league, most notably ownership or those with the ear of ownership. And it is coming in a far more organic and thus preferable manner than all the forced sham interviews or mid-round draft pick rewards.
Anyone watching "Hard Knocks" should be able to envision Glenn or Staley as a head coach, or Sheppard and others as moving up the ranks. Again, appearances arent performances, but this is how the world works. Looking the part matters, even if it shouldnt. NFL hiring has long proven that.
For a league that has tried almost everything, maybe something new is coming from something old; "Hard Knocks" has been around since 2001.
Now the Lions just need to actually win, of course.
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Demetrious Johnson captures ONE Championship belt with incredible flying knee KO – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
Demetrious Johnson is one of the best to ever do it. That statement usually applies to MMA, but it also included revenge on Friday.
The former UFC flyweight champion captured his ONE Championship flyweight belt at ONE on Prime Video 1 on Friday via an incredible flying knee strike that appeared to knock opponent Adrian Moraes unconscious.
The fight was a rematch after Moraes captured the flyweight belt over Johnson at ONE on TNT 1 last April via a knee to the head and then a flurry of strikes that finished Johnson in the second round.
This time, Johnson struck in the fourth round and left no doubt. An alternate angle of the fight's ending shows just how brutal the impact was to Moraes' head.
The win marks Johnson's first time holding the ONE flyweight belt, though he also won the ONE flyweight grand prix in 2019. Johnson, who held the UFC record for consecutive title defense with 11 before his loss to Henry Cejudo, was traded to ONE back in 2018 and is now 4-1 with the Singaporean promotion.
Johnson's overall career record currently stands 31-4-1. We'll see how long this reign ends up lasting.
Demetrious Johnson still has it. (AP Photo/John Locher)
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Inflation hits football tailgate season: Here’s what costs a lot more this year – Yahoo Finance
Posted: at 8:20 am
American football fans can all agree inflation is taking a toll on the cost of tailgates this season.
Prices for gasoline, flights and essential foods found at tailgate parties all jumped in price, with the cost of groceries up 13.1% in July, and the overall cost of spectator sports skyrocketing 150% for the average U.S. consumer in the past year.
Wells Fargo Economist Mike Pugliese said gasoline tops the list of factors driving the cost of tailgating up.
"It's not just the cost of getting to the game with that gasoline but also fueling up the grill. Propane, firewood...the kinds of things you'd need to fire that up, we're talking even there 20% or so inflation on a year-over-year basis, so those costs really do stack up when kind of adding them all together," he told Yahoo Finance.
Travel costs alone are seen as the "biggest pain point" according to the report, whether it be flying, driving or once there, parking or staying in a nearby hotel. In the past year, airfares have gone up 28%, that's 16% higher than in 2019. Wells Fargo noted a 1.4% hike in parking and tolls and hotels, up 1.3% year-over-year.
Pugliese offered advice on how to combat these higher costs take mass transit, up 0.5%.
"If you are trying to get to the game and transportation's a challenge, be it driving with gasoline or airfares...what I would point you to is public transit. Take the bus, take the subway, if you can."
Cost of getting to the game. (Courtesy: U.S. Department of Labor & Wells Fargo Economics)
Once you're finally there, beer and food are in order, but that'll cost you more too.
Here's how much some fan-favorite tailgate foods jumped in price according to the U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargos Economics: chicken, up 17.6%, snacks up 16.5%, pickles & relishes, up 15.8%, dairy and cheese, up 14.9%, rolls and buns, up 13.9%, carbonated drinks, up 12.9%, condiments, up 11.3%, ground beef, up 9.7%, fresh fruit, up 9.0%, fresh vegetables, up 7.3%, hot dogs, up 5.3%, and pork ribs, up 1.5%.
The rising cost of Alcoholic beverages might be easier to swallow, coming in at not too much of a hike in cost compared to most food: beer, up 4.6%, wine, up 2.3%, and liquor, up 1.5%.
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Penalty on tailgating prices this year (Courtesy: U.S. Department of Labor & Wells Fargo Economics)
According to Pugliese, there are a few key factors that are driving prices higher in certain "random" sub-sectors like pickles and relish.
"When you look at a lot of different sectors, either agricultural commodities being up a lot, the labor costs, which continue to be very high, transportation costs, which continue to be high, you also see a lot of volatility in these like we've seen in all the inflation data. Each individual sub-sector has been very volatile as different problems in the supply chain have caused that volatility over the course of the past couple of years, so you kind of pull all those factors together, and it doesn't surprise me that even somewhat random sectors have seen really robust inflation over the past year or so," he said.
Another option to save this football season watch from home.
"You've seen TV prices actually come down a bit relative to a year ago, continuing what's more of a longer-term structural trend over the past decade or two and also, prices for cable and satellite TV haven't gone up nearly as much as overall inflation," Pugliese continues, "Staying at home, watching it on your upgraded TV, could be a perfectly fine substitute."
Brooke DiPalma is a producer and reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.
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Several LIV Golf members to play in BMW PGA Championship, which will be a bit weird – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
Once the Tour Championship ends this week at East Lake, many of the PGA Tours biggest names will head over to the United Kingdom for the BMW PGA Championship.
That event, held at Wentworth Club in Surrey, England, is one of the DP World Tours biggest events each year. And, thanks to a special exemption that allows the top 60 players in the Official World Golf Rankings to enter, it will feature more than a dozen players from the LIV Golf Invitational Series.
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That, Matthew Fitzpatrick said on Thursday night in Atlanta, will make for an awkward situation.
Its going to be odd seeing certain people obviously at Wentworth, Fitzpatrick said after his opening-round 64 at the Tour Championship.
"That is going to be a bit weird, and obviously a little disappointing.
Fitzpatrick, 27, picked up his inaugural PGA Tour win earlier this season at the U.S. Open. Hes won seven times elsewhere in his career, and has 13 top-25 finishes on Tour this season.
According to the field list released by the DP World Tour, more than a dozen LIV Golf members are set to compete next month at the BMW PGA Championship including Talor Gooch, Patrick Reed, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Na, Jason Kokrak, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia.
Though the PGA Tour has suspended any LIV Golf member from competing in its events, the DP World Tour has not. LIV members who compete in the BMW PGA Championship will be hit with a six-figure fine, per the Golf Channel, but they can still participate.
PGA Tour members Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland will join Fitzpatrick in the field, too.
It will mark one of the first times the two groups of golfers will compete at the same event since the controversial Saudi Arabian-backed league was launched earlier this year and the first time since the PGA Tour announced new plans to try and counteract LIV Golfs moves.
I laugh at what the PGA Tour players have come up with, Westwood said of the Tours plans, which include increased purses, stronger fields and more.
Its just a copy of what LIV is doing. There are a lot of hypocrites out there. They all say LIV is not competitive. They all point at the no-cut aspect of LIV and the short fields. Now, funnily enough, they are proposing 20 events that look a lot like LIV. Hopefully, at some point they will all choke on their words. And hopefully, they will be held to account as we were in the early days.
More than a dozen LIV Golf members, including Kevin Na, will play at the DP World Tour event next month. (Mike Stobe/LIV Golf via Getty Images)
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Patriots used their starting offense in preseason finale, and it did not go well – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) and the Pats offense struggled against the Raiders. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Of all teams, the New England Patriots shouldn't panic too much about what happens in the preseason. They don't even panic over what happens in September most seasons.
But for a team that has been under a lot of scrutiny for its offensive struggles with questionable coordinator decisions, Friday night was alarming.
The Patriots played most of their starters in the preseason finale at the Las Vegas Raiders. Mac Jones, DeVante Parker and Hunter Henry were among those taking snaps. They played against a Raiders defense that didn't use one locked-in starter. It was Patriots starters vs. Raiders backups, for the most part.
In four series, the Patriots' starting offense went punt, interception, punt, field goal. Both punts happened after three-and-outs. The Patriots had 94 yards after about 20 minutes of football. The Patriots trailed 13-3 midway through the second quarter when Jones and the rest of the starting offense was pulled from the game.
In a normal preseason, that wouldn't be worth worrying about. It's not ideal to see starters struggle against backups, but it's preseason. However, the story around the Patriots, pretty much since Josh McDaniels left his post as New England's offensive coordinator to become the Raiders' head coach, has been about the strange succession plan in the coaching staff. Friday night's flop will add to the pressure.
Bill Belichick hasn't spoken much about his offensive coordinator situation, but it has been some combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Neither has been an offensive coordinator. Patricia's last job with the Patriots, before a failed stint as Detroit Lions head coach, was defensive coordinator. Patriots reporters have been trying to figure out how the job is being split up.
Belichick has done unconventional things in the past and they normally work out. Maybe this will too. But Friday night wasn't a great showing.
Jones finished 9-of-13 for 71 yards and a bad interception. Jones moved in the pocket and never saw linebacker Luke Masterson sitting in coverage underneath. He threw it right to Masterson.
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Jones was sacked two times as well. There have been multiple reports from Patriots camp that the offensive line has struggled.
Perhaps we'll look up in October and November and understand that the reports of the Patriots' offensive struggles were overblown. It's not like New England hasn't made premature reports of its demise look dumb before. But on Friday night, at the end of an uneasy August, it didn't look very good for the offense.
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Fantasy Football: Which players have the highest expectations in 2022 and will they reach them? – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
The current situation: Tua Tagovailoa has never played a full season in the NFL. He's never reached 20 total touchdowns in a season. Yet, he's one of 2022's top fantasy QB sleeper candidates and one of the players with the highest expectations for the season upon him.
Why?
Well, even though he's just entering Year 3 in the NFL, he's also entering the absolute best offensive ecosystem he's been in since his college days at Alabama. His new head coach, Mike McDaniel, is considered one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL, being part of the 2017 Falcons' Super Bowl-bound offense; he was most recently the offensive coordinator for San Francisco.
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The Dolphins have also set up Tua for success, with Tyreek Hill in the Miami fold after a huge offseason trade, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert added to the backfield, and Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki already in place as explosive talents.
Few teams, let alone a single quarterback, can boast such a promising collection of surrounding attributes.
Will he meet expectations? DEPENDS ON YOUR EXPECTATIONS. Tua's comparisons to Drew Brees in terms of physical measurables and accuracy along with his NFL draft standing have seemed to buoy his career expectations ever since the Dolphins took him fifth overall in 2020. But what if he is just what he is: An average quarterback who can run a professional offense, but won't deliver high-flying numbers or results? It's not like the league doesn't pump out more of those passers than it does elite ones.
But beyond just Tua, his shiny new ecosystem does have some holes in it. Everyone acknowledges McDaniel knows offense, but does he know how to be the head coach of a team and mentor a young quarterback? It's not like Jimmy Garoppolo was putting up huge fantasy weeks during McDaniel's tenure as offensive coordinator. Maybe the Dolphins field a potent running game this season as opposed to an offense that turns Tua into a fantasy star.
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In fact, McDaniel's hire might actually be better for Tyreek Hill than for Tagovailoa. Don't forget, McDaniel helped turn Deebo Samuel into a fantasy cheat code last year, and if anyone has similar yards-after-the-catch skills to Deebo, it's Hill. That might help Tua's bottom line, but hey Jimmy G finished as the 17th-highest scoring fantasy QB in 2021, while Deebo finished as the second-highest scoring wide receiver.
In his defense, Tua is being drafted in the late-13th round according to current Yahoo ADP. So while his expectations are high in reality, he doesn't have to do much to return or surpass his fantasy draft investment. The real question should be, will he enter the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks this season? I'm not betting on it.
The current situation: Javonte Williams, in limited 2021 work, rushed for 903 yards, had another 316 through the air and scored seven times. He was forced to share the backfield with wily veteran Melvin Gordon, yet we were lucky to see what Williams could do when he had the backfield to himself 178 total yards and a TD in Week 12. And the fantasy community is VERY excited about the prospect of Williams being the Broncos' featured back. His current third-round ADP is good for the 14th running back being selected in drafts.
Will he meet expectations? NO, UNFORTUNATELY. That verdict seems very final for a player of this caliber, but we've seen this story in the NFL before. A young, talented running back gets everyone in the fantasy community excited. His ADP crashes through the stratosphere. Fantasy managers who land the buzzy back feel like they're in an exclusive club, ready to receive the laurels of the selection.
And then the young RB makes an error in pass protection or drops a couple of passes or isn't the second coming of rookie Todd Gurley or his coaching staff doesn't want to put too much pressure on his shoulders. Enter the bane of all our existences: The RBBC, where that young talent has to share the backfield with a reliable veteran and nobody wins in fantasy.
Like I said, we've seen it countless times before; it happened to Clyde Edwards-Helaire recently and Adrian Peterson is the king of veteran vultures. And it'll likely happen to Williams this season, with Gordon back in the fold. And as much as we all love Javonte, we all know coaching staffs just can't say no to a reliable, talented veteran (we're looking at you, Lions). And we can't deny that Gordon who still hasn't turned 30 was really, really good last year; 1,131 total yards, 10 touchdowns and a top-20 fantasy RB finish is nothing to sneer at. To think that the Broncos staff is just going to relegate Gordon to the bench for a pass play here and there is hard to believe.
Next year, when Williams will still just be 23, seems more likely for the massive breakout we all know he's capable of.
The current situation: After being one of the most dominant fantasy forces in all of football, Christian McCaffrey is trying to make his way back from two lost seasons. It might even be a stretch to call them seasons, as he played a total of just 10 games the last two years.
Injuries took CMC off the field and out of fantasy managers' lineups. First, 2020 featured a high ankle sprain, a shoulder strain and then a thigh injury. He then missed most of the season in 2021 with a strained hamstring and another ankle injury.
Christian McCaffrey is trying to regain his place at the top of the fantasy running back group. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Yet, CMC is expected to be fully healthy heading into Week 1 as part of a new-look Panthers offense thanks to who will be under center.
Will he meet expectations? ABSOLUTELY YES. I mean, let's also not kid ourselves; Baker Mayfield who was officially named the Panthers' starter isn't Peyton Manning reborn or anything, but he's also not some scrub. You could make the argument that a healthy Mayfield is the best quarterback CMC has ever had to work with (I might not agree, but I'd listen to the argument nonetheless).
I know his recent seasons look horrible, but there are actually some silver linings to CMC's recent injuries. First of all, he hasn't suffered either of the two bigger injuries that have claimed other star runners over the years, namely issues with an Achilles or ACL. Also, even with this injury "history" Draft Sharks still grades CMC with a "5" durability score (5 being the highest), which considers him able to produce at a high level when dealing with or returning from minor injuries. And produce at a high level McCaffrey does, most recently collecting three top-15 fantasy scoring weeks (including two top-five) when he returned in 2021 after his first injury absence.
We know what CMC can do when he's healthy; he IS the Panthers' offense and one of the most dominant backs in football. He's also STILL ONLY 26 YEARS OLD. To call him injury prone at this stage of his career sounds like a reach. What isn't a reach is selecting him near the top of fantasy drafts this season.
[2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEFs | Ks]
The current situation: Justin Jefferson is just the latest in a recent class of young wide receivers who are entering the NFL and producing from their very first snap.
And Jefferson might just be the best in the bunch.
Jefferson finished as the fourth-highest scoring wide receiver in 2021 fantasy, and he came second in yardage only to Cooper Kupp, who had a historic season. Jefferson isn't shy to history either, putting together the most receiving yards in the first two years of a career in NFL history (3,016 receiving yards, 17 touchdowns).
He'll walk into a Minnesota offense during his age-23 season that is expected to receive an infusion of excitement in 2022. The Vikings hired new head coach Kevin O'Connell, who most recently coordinated the Rams' Super Bowl-winning offense. No big deal.
O'Connell is expected to bring innovation to the Vikings' passing game which is great news for Jefferson.
Will he meet expectations? HE DEFINITELY CAN, BUT PROBABLY WON'T. Before you unleash the hounds, hear me out. There are a lot of factors that as of yet remain too unsolidified for me to say, "Yeah, Justin Jefferson will deliver Cooper Kupp's 2021 in 2022." Things like that new offense in Minnesota; it's all sunshine and rainbows now, but we won't know what it actually looks like until Week 1. Will they spread the ball around more, implementing Dalvin Cook's skills as a pass-catcher and the emerging KJ Osborn and the always-savvy Adam Thielen?
Things like, is Kirk Cousins even good enough to help JJ reach those heights on a new offense? Cousins has rightly been underrated most of his career, but he's also no Matthew Stafford, and he's also 34 years old; we're not talking about a talented young quarterback who's finally getting a passer-friendly offense.
We're talking about a veteran who's prone to as many bonehead moves as he is great ones. JJ can most definitely outplay a subpar QB, but I don't think anyone would argue that this would be a much easier expectation to reach if his quarterback was in a higher tier.
I love Justin Jefferson and would take him with a top-five fantasy pick this season. But his expectations are that of an eventual triple-receiving-crown winner, and that's just a bit too steep for me to bet on. The same way we don't expect Kupp to repeat is the same way I don't expect Jefferson to hit those numbers. Now, if one of the other Vikings' talented weapons were to go down for a long stretch, then it'd be easier for him to get there. After all, the answer to that problem would just be, "More Jefferson."
The current situation: Much digital ink has already been spilled about the disappointment Allen Robinson wrought on fantasy managers last season. No need to get too much into it here; it feels disrespectful to keep spinning that wheel, especially when it regards such a talented receiver forced to play in a nigh-impossible situation in 2021.
Robinson had made a career of outplaying bad quarterbacks for years, but everyone has their limits; even Tom Brady lost a few Super Bowls, after all.
2022, however, represents the first year in ARob's eight-season career (he's 28 years old) where he'll not only be in a great offensive ecosystem, but one of the very best in the entire league. He will also be playing with arguably the most talented teammates he's ever had in quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp. We saw what Odell Beckham Jr. was able to do in limited work with the eventual Super Bowl champs. The arrow is pointing exceptionally high for ARob.
Will he meet expectations? YES. Unless Allen Robinson reached his physical peak last season (highly unlikely), there's almost no negative to his 2022 outlook. With Kupp inhaling most, if not all, of the defensive attention, Robinson will be able to run circles around overmatched defenders; recall, Robinson was considered one of the better route-running alpha wideouts in football before last year's disaster. Not many teams can boast having a talent like that as their second wideout. As long as Stafford stays healthy and Sean McVay continues to innovate with the offensive playbook, ARob, with his individual talent and that of those around him, should smash his current sixth-round ADP to smithereens.
The current situation: Is there anyone with more hype surrounding him this fantasy draft season than Gabriel Davis?
I guess it's warranted, when you consider what Davis did in last season's playoffs and what he's walking into in Buffalo this season.
The Bills may have fallen to the Chiefs in the Divisional game, but Davis was the People's Winner. The then-22-year-old delivered an unbelievable 8-10-201-4 line in that game. That incredible explosion came after many flashes of big-play ability throughout his young career.
Davis is now expected to be Josh Allen's No. 2 target across from Stefon Diggs on one of the most prolific passing offenses in football. Not a bad job to have.
Will he meet expectations? YES. The numbers are just in Davis' favor. First of all, the Bills live and die via Allen's talents, whether on the ground or through the air; let's be honest their "running game" is pretty much just a way to give Allen a breather. Allen is also not known to throw to his backs; the man likes to throw to his wideouts and tight ends. And with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders out of town, there's a plethora of available targets whose majority are likely set to be absorbed by Davis.
We can't buy too much into preseason and training camp hearsay, but we also can't ignore it, either. And if you've been keeping track, Davis' hype train has only been given more fuel throughout the offseason; at one point Davis was being called the best wideout in Bills' camp yes, with Diggs on the field.
Increased role + offensive ecosystem + strong individual talent. The way I see it, the only way Davis doesn't meet and/or exceed expectations is injury, or if Allen loses trust in him and decides to look Dawson Knox or Isaiah McKenzie's way instead. Considering what Davis did in the playoffs when the Bills needed it most I don't see that happening.
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How Amazon’s foray into NFL streaming impacts the viewer and the business – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 8:20 am
Amazon is about to change how you watch or don't watch the NFL.
After lucrative rights negotiations and months of high-profile talent acquisition, "Thursday Night Football" will makes its Amazon Prime debut on Sept. 15. Up first: an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, featuring rivals with Super Bowl aspirations and two of the game's most electric young quarterbacks. It's a fine way to kick things off.
Take note that's a Week 2 matchup. The NFL is certainly excited about its new partnership with the America's dominant retailer and the roughly $1 billion annual rights fee that comes with it. It's just not limiting its Sept. 8 season kickoff between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills to a streaming audience. NBC will handle that game. Which brings us to the crux of the change.
Not since the advent of the RedZone channel or perhaps the 2006 premier of "Thursday Night Football" itself has the business of delivering the NFL to fans undergone such a seismic shift.
NFL fans without Amazon Prime have a decision to make this fall. (AP Photo/Doug Benc)
The most glaring impact of Amazon's foray into NFL coverage is that one must subscribe to Amazon Prime to watch out-of-market "TNF" games (in-market games will still air on local airwaves). This won't be an issue for a large swath of fans.
CEO Jeff Bezos announced in 2021 that global Prime membership had exceeded 200 million worldwide. Amazon doesn't divulge specific numbers of U.S. subscribers, but industry estimates have placed that tally anywhere between 147 million and 172 million members in recent years, a number that was inflated at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as more consumers opted to have goods delivered to their homes.
In short, if you're a football fan (or not) in America, there's a good chance you already subscribe. But there are plenty of NFL fans out there who don't for myriad reasons, whether it be ethical, budgetary or otherwise. Amazon announced in February that the price of membership is going up from $119 annually to $139. For football fans who don't already subscribe, that now becomes the cost of watching "TNF." Is it worth it? That all depends on the individual consumer.
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For some, the price will certainly be too much for a single game a week amid an increasingly fractured streaming landscape that's asking sports fans to shell out subscription fees across multiple platforms. You're a UFC fan? Get an ESPN+ subscription. Baseball? Sign up for Peacock. And Apple TV+. Wanna watch all the Premier League action? Peacock again. Now Amazon is hoping you'll come on over to watch the NFL.
There is one exception that's reportedly about to be announced bars and restaurants. They won't have to work streaming into their infrastructure.
After initially reporting earlier this month that Amazon agreed to have DirectTV continue to provide "TNF" coverage to bars and restaurants, Sports Business Journal's John Ourand reported Tuesday that an official announcement was imminent, with comments from DirecTV Chief Content Officer Rob Thun that seemed to confirm it.
So fans will likely be able to hit up their favorite sports bar to catch "TNF" in the fall. For fans declining to subscribe because of budgetary concerns, a night out with a bar/restaurant tab might not be the answer.
This is one of the most anticipated elements of the new football season. How strong is Amazon's broadcast game as it takes on America's king of sports? All signs point to very.
Amazon has kept Bezos in an ongoing competition with Elon Musk as the world's richest man. After committing roughly $1 billion annually in rights fees, Amazon's not skimping on the product.
Amazon's secured deals with a number high-profile sportscasters, most notably play-by-play icon Al Michaels, who will anchor the platform's game coverage. Exact terms of his deal weren't disclosed, but it's reportedly in the range of $15 million annually. He'll be joined in the booth by analyst Kirk Herbstreit, who will moonlight with Amazon alongside his regular job as ESPN's top college football voice.
"Thursday Night Football" viewers will hear a familiar voice on the call in Al Michaels. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)
The studio show will include the likes of fellow NFL and broadcasting mainstays Tony Gonzalez and Richard Sherman, as well as veteran NFL reporter Michael Smith and host Charissa Thompson, who will reportedly take on the role in addition to her Sunday duties as the host of "Fox NFL Kickoff." (Aqib Talib was also scheduled to take part, but he decided to step away in light of his brother's alleged involvement in a shooting death at a youth football game in Texas.)
Will the investment in talent lead to more subscribers and viewers? Amazon believes so. At least that's the company line.
"This new duo will certainly resonate with our viewers and keep them coming back to watch on Prime Video and Twitch week after week," Amazon's head of ad sales Danielle Carney said in an April company statement in response to the acquisitions of Michaels and Herbstreit.
Will the broadcast talent really make a dent on Amazon's bottom line? That's difficult to quantify. Matchups and stakes drive ratings, not who's on the mic. The real value here is in legitimacy.
Amazon's "TNF" coverage is the first step in what's expected to be more exclusive streaming NFL coverage see the ongoing "NFL Sunday Ticket" negotiations. It can't afford to present a product that's not in line with the NFL's standards. The league surely wouldn't have done business with Amazon without quality assurances. Expect some growing pains, but an overall premium product.
A quality product is in place. An unusually enticing Thursday night slate featuring Ravens-Buccaneers, Colts-Broncos, Packers-Titans and Bills-Patriots, in addition to its AFC West kickoff, also bodes well for Amazon. But it's reportedly already bracing advertisers for a ratings dip from previous seasons.
The Thursday night lineup features some enticing matchups starting with Chiefs-Chargers. (Kirby Lee/Reuters)
AdAge reported on Monday that Amazon told advertisers in a recent sales pitch to expect lower numbers while charging less for 30-second ad spots than Fox did on Thursday nights last season.
"Amazon took estimates down pretty significantly versus what there was out there from Fox," an ad executive told AdAge.
Meanwhile, Nielsen will provide data to back up those viewership numbers in a first-of-its kind streaming deal. Amazon and Nielsen announced on Tuesday that they reached a three-year agreement for the media data firm to provide ratings numbers for "TNF." It marks the first time in Nielsen's history that the firm responsible for tabulating traditional TV ratings will report on streaming numbers.
So is this a problem for Amazon? Not likely. The reduced viewership estimates were surely baked in long before Amazon put in its final bid for the streaming rights. Common sense dictates that a product that was previously available over airwaves and traditional cable and satellite formats won't be as easy for viewers to access on a less-familiar streaming platform.
Meanwhile, Amazon's financial structure and motivations differ from Fox's, ESPN's and NBC's. Prime is a portal for Amazon to generate revenue through other avenues. Folks who tune into watch "TNF" may stick around to watch the latest offering from Amazon Studios. They may stumble upon a third-party studio in the Prime network that generates revenue for Amazon.
The New York Times reports that streaming services like HBO Max and Starz pay Amazon 15% or more of each subscription sold through Prime. Per the Times, these deals generate more than $3 billion annually. And that's before millions log in every week to watch NFL football.
And now there are reported talks of a Black Friday game streaming on Prime. Because what better way to keep folks home and out of the Best Buy and Walmart aisles on the busiest shopping day of the year?
Meanwhile, in the era of streaming and DVR, live sports is the last vestige of must-watch commercial live TV. Sports fans largely want to watch games as they happen, even if it means sitting through ads they're conditioned to bypass elsewhere. And a bad day at the NFL ratings office is still monumentally better than any other broadcast's best day.
Per the Sports Business Journal, 95 of the top 100 rated TV programs in 2021 were sports games. Of those, 75 were NFL games. Per the report, the NFL claimed 15 of the top 16-rated broadcasts in 2021 and 29 of the top 31. President Joe Biden's inauguration snuck in as the seventh-most watched program of the year while his address to Congress in April ranked 17th. Football is king and a lucrative opportunity for Amazon.
This all adds up to the inevitable. Amazon's NFL streaming deal is not a blip. It's the future. Traditional broadcasts aren't going away. But streaming's foothold backed up by deep pockets such as Amazon's and Apple's are an ingrained and growing part of the sports and NFL landscape.
For consumers, it comes down to priorities and how much they're willing to pay.
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