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Commuters pack a subway train in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday. (Paula Bronstein / Getty Images)

In January, as Singapore racked up the highest numbers of coronavirus infections outside China, an alarmed Shasta Grant searched for flights back home to Indianapolis.

The 44-year-old American writer, who moved to this island city-state with her family eight years ago, worried that their adopted home would be ravaged again by a runaway disease and that the school where her husband teaches and their 12-year-old son studies would be closed. She feared food shortages, overwhelmed hospitals and travel bans.

But her husband persuaded her not to flee. Two months later, Singapore and other Asian nations have largely corralled their outbreaks; meanwhile, the virus roars across North America and Europe, leaving Grant dumbstruck by how quickly the U.S. went from a distant spectator of the epidemic to one of its primary victims.

It feels very strange to say that I feel safer here than in my home country, Grant said. That sinking feeling that it was really going to get awful, that we were all going to get infected, that just didn't happen. Things never really got bad in Singapore, and obviously theyre a mess in America.

In Asian countries that initially faced the gravest risk from the coronavirus, the shambolic U.S. response to the pandemic has elicited confusion, horror and even a measure of pity. Suddenly, it seems, the U.S. is the basket case, an aloof, inward-looking power that had already weakened its alliances and failed to lead on global emergencies such as climate change, and now was shrinking in a crisis.

The U.S. was quick to restrict travel from China in the early weeks of the outbreak; now travelers from the U.S. and other Western countries are exporting a "second wave" of infections to China, Hong Kong and Singapore. President Trump, who once said the virus would disappear like a miracle, has watched it explode in California, Washington state and New York while vigilant testing and contact tracing brought it under control in Taiwan and South Korea.

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As commercial shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders grind life to a halt in the United States' biggest cities, restaurants, bars, shopping malls and subway trains have operated virtually without interruption in Singapore and Taipei, Taiwan the occasional mask and thermometer gun the only obvious signs of a pandemic. Emerging outbreaks in India and Indonesia, huge populations where little testing has been done, now worry experts more than China and its immediate surroundings.

Though the number of confirmed infections in the U.S. now exceeds 43,900, health experts warn that many more coronavirus cases are going unrecorded because of a scarcity of tests. Hospitals nationwide lack enough ventilators, beds and medication to treat an expected onslaught of critically ill patients.

Herv Lemahieu, an Asia expert at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, drew comparisons to Hurricane Katrina, another calamitous emergency response that laid bare the cracks in the U.S. political system and the widening inequities in American society.

That was the first time that the world saw images broadcast from the U.S. that resembled those of a developing country, and thats something that for most of us was surprising, Lemahieu said. These kinds of moments have a psychological impact on the way the U.S. is perceived abroad.

They are having a financial impact, too, as fears of a prolonged U.S. slump drag down Asian stock markets, threatening to plunge some of the worlds fastest-growing economies into recession.

This stock market fall is serious, said Freddy Lim, a legislator in Taiwan, where the stock exchange has lost 20% of its value over the last month. So we hope the U.S. will get this under control as soon as possible.

That the U.S. would look riskier in a pandemic than parts of Asia would have been unthinkable not long ago.

In 2002 and 2003, an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, killed almost 800 people nearly all in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore and erased an estimated $40 billion from the global economy. Aggressive public health measures helped stop the disease before it spread in the U.S., while chastened leaders in China and Singapore pledged to invest in health infrastructure and epidemic surveillance.

Although China initially concealed the extent of this coronavirus outbreak as it did with SARS the Communist Party swiftly blanketed the epicenter of the virus, Hubei province, in a draconian lockdown that the World Health Organization praised as extraordinary in slowing the virus.

Through a mixture of strict quarantining, contact tracing, temperature checks and diligent testing, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong also bought time for other governments to prepare.

Health officials say the U.S. and other Western governments failed to anticipate the coronavirus reaching their shores.

Just because Singapore or Hong Kong experienced SARS while other places didnt, theres still lessons to be learned, said Dale Fisher, a Singapore-based expert on infectious disease who traveled to China last month as part of a WHO-led mission. You dont have to be in a car accident to know that car accidents happen. Im saddened that the world couldnt use that lead time to prepare better.

Others were blunter.

Trump was saying this virus is no big deal, and now suddenly hes changed his tune, said PN Balji, a veteran Singaporean journalist and commentator. It shows a callous disregard for your own citizens and, to a certain extent, the world.

Taiwan, less than 90 miles from the Chinese mainland and visited by as many as 2,000 Chinese tourists daily, had recorded 195 infections as of Friday or roughly 1 in every 120,000 people, among the lowest rates of any of the more than 170 countries affected by the virus.

Compare that with the U.S., where 1 in 7,500 Americans has tested positive for the virus, add universal healthcare, and its easy to see why Taiwans president, Tsai Ing-wen, urged her citizens this week to stay in Taiwan because it was safer than traveling overseas.

Taiwan has a very robust health system, said ruling party lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng. This is one area where I think the U.S. can learn from Taiwan.

Sean Kramer, a 32-year-old from the Seattle area who teaches at a junior high school in Taiwan, said friends and relatives messaged him in January to ask whether hed be safe there. For a while, he considered flying home.

But then he watched the numbers of infections in China skyrocket while those in Taiwan stayed flat. He saw people on the street instinctively don masks, the Taiwanese administration roll out a succession of helpful messages and authorities quickly decide to extend Lunar New Year holidays for three extra weeks in February.

All the steps that appeared to Kramer like overreactions seemed to keep a lid on the epidemic. As the virus spreads across his home state, he tries to do his part for his family by logging on to Amazon from Taipei to buy masks and hand sanitizer for his sister in suburban Seattle.

We never got the whole lockdown status, so seeing everyone react at home now, I cant relate to their emotions or their fear, Kramer said. Thats the scary part for me as an American.

The U.S. stumbles have also thrown a lifeline to Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was facing a rare spasm of dissent at home following his governments initial attempts to paper over the outbreak in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei.

As the total number of infections for the rest of the world has soared past those in China, Beijing has gone on a diplomatic and humanitarian offensive, pledging masks and medical equipment to dozens of countries including the U.S. in a bid to regain its global standing. Last week, Chinese billionaire Jack Ma sent a shipment of 1 million masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to our friends in America.

Such moves and Trumps repeated references to the Chinese virus highlight how the outbreak has become yet another arena of competition between the two leading global powers. Both countries appear to be covering up their mishandling of the crisis, said Lemahieu of the Lowy Institute, who called the war of words pathetic and unappealing on both sides.

Yet many Asian leaders retain faith that the U.S. will get a handle on its outbreak once social distancing orders and ramped-up health measures take hold, allowing it to resume a position of leadership in the global response.

The United States has got enormous resources at its disposal, Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told CNBC last week. Its a matter of getting it organized and getting it delivered. So lets wait and see. You know, I would never count the Americans out.

Special correspondent Ralph Jennings in Taipei contributed to this report.

Excerpt from:

'A mess in America': Why Asia now looks safer than the U.S. in the coronavirus crisis - Yahoo News

After years of trying to conceive a child, Dustin and Jennifer Sanders were excited to celebrate their pregnancy with family and friends at their gender reveal party. But asglobal coronavirus cases have reached the hundreds of thousands, the Arkansas pastors decided it was best to cancel the big event.

However, the couple didnt expect the parade of cars driven by friends toting pink streamers, hats and confetti showering them with love on Saturday after they discovered they would be having a baby girl.

It was very, very, very emotional, Sanders, whose friends got together via email and text and planned to meet up in their vehicles for the drive-by celebration, told Yahoo Lifestyle. To see that kind of outpouring of love is incredible.

Sanders posted a video of the parade to Facebook and Twitter, and watched it amass over 25,000 retweets by Sunday afternoon.

YOU HAVE TO WATCH THIS!!! Sanders posted on Facebook, along with the video of the main event. We decided not to do a gender reveal because of COVID-19. After the live video we got a call from Mrs.Charlotte Edwards asking us to step outside. Some of our incredible church family ... cant even put into words. Love you all!!

The couple originally planned to have a large gender reveal party at their church, where the couple serves as pastors. But when the governor made it clear that large gatherings werent a good idea, Sanders knew they had to listen.

As a pastor, we always talk about submitting to authority, so were trying to do the same thing, said Sanders. It hasnt even hit our town, but were abiding by the rules.

With their church community so deeply involved in their journey to become parents, everyone had been looking forward to the reveal.

Related Video: How Concerned Should Pregnant Women Be About Coronavirus?

Everybody was disappointed, since they walked with us through the heartache of miscarriages, said Sanders. So behind the scenes without us knowing, a bunch of our friends and church members got together.

The couple streamed their announcement live on Facebook with a couple thousand people watching.

When we got done with that, we changed clothes, sat down on the couch and were receiving phone calls and texts, said Sanders. By that time, my secretary at church called me and said Hey, can you come outside real quick? We walked out of the front door, what you saw began. That video was only a fraction of it.

Jennifer and Dustin Sanders discover they're having a baby girl. (Photo: Dustin Sanders)

While the couple is overjoyed to have a healthy pregnancy, theyre also focused on helping people during this time. Thats why theyre actively working within the community to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

As pastors, its our job is to spread the love of Jesus and God throughout the community, said Sanders, who pointed out that his church is going above and beyond to help those in need. This past week, their church partnered with teachers to deliver close to 1,500 meals to the children who are on reduced lunches, dropping off each one at the front door to maintain a safe distance. Theyve also provided several hundred dinners and groceries delivered to senior citizens. Thats who we are. We try to support love, to spread love and reach more people with the love than we have.

While their daughter, who they plan to call Madilynne Grace, isnt born yet, Sanders says he still believes shes brought joy to those around them during this trying time.

Getting a little of hope in this dark time, said Sanders. Its incredible to know shes already done that.

For the latest news on the evolving coronavirus outbreak,follow along here. According to experts, people over 60 and those who are immunocompromised continue to be the most at risk. If you have questions, please reference theCDCandWHOsresource guides.

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Friends surprise couple with drive-by gender reveal party after coronavirus concerns forced cancellation - Yahoo Lifestyle

Executive Summary

Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000.We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks. Thats why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks.

Thesis:

Everything I said about the Coronavirus COVID-19 in February happened, Now Im telling you this:

Since my last few newsletters to you, I have updated our models, done more research and we now have better estimates.

Three parameter estimates are needed to predict the number of infections and number of deaths over the next 3 weeks: infection fatality rate, infection growth rate, and the number of days between initial infection and resolution (either death or recovery) of the infection.

1. We now estimate that the coronaviruss fatality rate is ~0.8%. This means 1 out of every 125 infected people will die. We know that almost all countries had problems with testing and identifying all infected people. There are two exceptions to this: South Korea and Japans Princess Diamond cruise ship.

South Korea tested more than 320,000 people and identified 8652 infections. The total number of deaths was 94. This means South Koreas case fatality rate is 1.09%. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who were asymptomatic and weren't tested. So, we estimate that the actual fatality rate is anywhere from 0.5% and 1%.

In early February the Princess Diamond cruise ship was quarantined in Japan after one of the passengers tested positive. This was a bad idea for passengers as a total of 712 passengers were eventually infected and 7 of these people died. As far as I know all 3000+ passengers of this cruise ship were tested, so we have a reliable dataset with pretty accurate number of infections and number of deaths. The case fatality rate on Princess Diamond is 0.983%. We know that the fatality rate is higher among older people. Assuming that the median age of passengers on Princess Diamond is greater than Americas, which is 39, we can estimate that the new coronavirus fatality rate will be around 0.8% in America (maybe a little lower, but this is a nice round number).

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2. This paper estimates that an infection takes around 23-24 days to resolve. The first 5-6 days the patient doesnt show any symptoms. It takes an average of 5 days between the onset of symptoms and hospitalization. Finally it takes about 2 weeks between hospitalization and death (about 10 days in ICU).

3. There is no accurate direct way of calculating the infection growth rate because there is a huge variation in the number of people we are testing. [We were testing only a few people a couple of weeks ago, so we identified only a small number of infections. In recent days we started testing a large number of people (especially in New York) and now our case count is growing at alarming rates.] However, we can assume that the death rate is constant and we use the change in deaths to estimate the infection growth rate. There is a 23-24 day lag between an infection and the resolution of that infection. This means the growth rate in the number of deaths today is a very good estimate of the infection growth rate 23-24 days ago.

On March 19th, the U.S. reported a total of 205 deaths. That figure was 85 on March 16th and 47 on March 13th. This means the number of deaths doubles about every 3 days. This also means that the number of infections were doubling every 3 days on February 25th (the people who are dying today were infected on February 25th).

So, here is my simple mathematical model.

For the sake of argument, I am going to assume that all 205 American deaths occurred on March 19th and all of these people were infected on February 25th (this assumption simplifies calculations, we dont need a complex model to have a thorough understanding of what is going on).

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Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. Thats 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.

The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (lets round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.

Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].

Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.

Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.

These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.

I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.

Enter social distancing. On March 14th, various municipalities and agencies started introducing social distancing. The practice eventually began to be suggested or required in the hardest hit parts of the nation.

The good news is that we started cancelling schools and closing down restaurants around March 14th. So, the number of total US infections isnt doubling every 3 days anymore. Unfortunately, the horse is already out of the barn. As of March 14th, one out of every 200 Americans is already infected.

Italy put the entire country under lockdown 12 days ago, yet its death toll is still increasing exponentially. Thats because there is a 24 day lag between an infection and its resolution. We havent put our country under a lockdown yet.

Except a few educated people, no one has any idea that there are already around 2 million infected people in America today and the American death toll will exceed 15,000 in just 24 days. If we dont take strict measures, we will be reporting 1000 deaths per day in just 3 weeks.

The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. Thats why we say hell is coming.

This is a mathematical certainty. It is inevitable.

China taught us how to contain the coronavirus outbreak. We have to put the entire country under a strict lockdown.

We dont think Donald Trump can postpone this decision beyond the middle of April. I am certain the entire country will be under quarantine in the next four weeks, and hopefully much sooner than that.

In terms of the stock market, we dont think stock prices are currently reflective of the possibility of a daily death toll of over 1,000 and a national lockdown for a period of a couple of months.

Assuming that we were able to put an end to the coronavirus outbreak after a 2 month lockdown, we will still have to implement strict quarantine measures towards international travelers. Tourism accounts for 2.9% of our GDP. We will have to deal with high unemployment figures, bankruptcies, and ballooning budget deficits for some time to come.

Donald Trump is already trying to shift the blame to China. The virus was a surprise for the Chinese, yet they managed to limit its death toll to 3000. Donald Trump knew about the virus in early January. He had weeks to prepare for it, yet he failed to protect us.

Biden doesnt have to be a marketing genius to blame Donald Trump for the death of 20,000+ Americans. He could very well label the recession as the Trump Recession. Thats why I believe Trump will lose the election and the stock market will start pricing the possibility of corporate tax rate increases pretty soon.

The bad news is that almost every country in the world will experience a recession. China was able to contain the virus, but its economy will probably experience a recession as well. Even if China bounces back quickly from being shut down for a number if weeks, its economy works in collaboration with the world economy. When individual countries falter economically, the worlds largest economy in China will also fall. In February, retail sales in China declined more than 20%, industrial production fell 13.5%, and fixed investments plunged 24.5%. Now, the U.S., Europe, India, Russia, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil will go through the same process.

In an average recession the S&P 500 Index declines by 32%.

Do you think this is going to be an average recession?

Another obvious but not yet utilized way of hedging your portfolio is hospital stocks. We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks (a hospitalization rate of 4%). There are 46,825 medical-surgical intensive care beds in the U.S. according to American Hospital Association. This means we are going to hit the ICU bed capacity especially in the counties that already account for most of the cases in the U.S.

Hospital stocks will financially benefit from near 100% utilization rates because usually their utilization rates hover around 50%. AHA already started lobbying the Congress for a $100 billion spending package to help hospitals with fighting the coronavirus outbreak. Thats why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks like Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC), HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA), and Universal Health Services, Inc. (NYSE:UHS). If you don't want to expose your portfolio to individual stock risk, then the simplest way of hedging is a short position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) or Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

Update 1 (March 21, 2020): The number of deaths on the Princess Diamond cruise ship increased to 8. The case fatality rate for this group is 1.12%. This doesn't change any of our parameters or estimates. We still expect to see around 800 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by the end of March 26th.

Disclosure: Long THC and net short SPY through put options. This article is first published at Insider Monkey.

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Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof - Yahoo Finance

There is a wide disparity between beliefs and behavior when it comes to the novel coronavirus, despite public health experts, government officials, and business executives urging Americans to stay home. Californias Bay Area has mandated a shelter in place policy for some 7 million residents, which requires them to remain at home barring essential activities. New York City may be expected to follow suit.

Seventy-four percent of Americans are afraid of accidentally spreading the virus to vulnerable people even if they are asymptomatic, according to a new survey from Harris Poll. But theyre not changing their daily patterns to actually mitigate risk to other people, according to the survey of 2,050 U.S. adults between March 14 and March 15.

NOVATO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 14: Hundreds of customers wait in line to enter a Costco store amid the spread of coronavirus. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Eighty-nine percent of Americans are still going to coffee shops and 58% have not changed how often theyre inviting people over, according to the Harris Poll survey respondents, whose age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, and household income were weighted to bring them into line with their actual proportions of the U.S. population.

Half of respondents have not altered their hygiene behavior with house guests (e.g., asking friends and family to wash their hands immediately upon entering). As recently as this past weekend, social distancing has become ubiquitous in talk but not practice.

Footage of the beaches of Clearwater, Florida, nightlife on Bourbon Street and Chicagos St. Patricks Day festivities show throngs of people socializing as if the situation were normal.

Still, since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States was reported on January 20, conditions have only escalated, with the virus reaching all 50 states and taking over 100 lives in the U.S.

The unknown and unprecedented nature of the disease is stoking fear among Americans. Seventy-nine percent of respondents said drastic headlines about how society is changing is the No. 1 reason they are fearful. Seventy-eight percent said they are primarily scared because of the deluge of news about people fighting over products at the grocery store; 75% pointed to the constant stream of reactions to the outbreak on social media.

Its the kerosene on the fire of the news cycle. Every hour, some news event is coming out thats creating a lot of fear and anxiety among Americans. Weve never had a crisis in America with the sophistication of social media in this participative way, amplifying fear. Social media can also amplify good news when it comes, but there doesnt seem to be good news yet, said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.

The poll also found, unsurprisingly, that work is being disrupted to some degree for all Americans. The biggest changes workers have seen from their employers are postponing work travel and remote work. Eighteen percent of respondents said COVID-19 has decreased their productivity.

In light of store closures and reduced hours, those working in the service industry are hit the hardest, while tech and business workers benefit the most from work from home policies, which is not an option for many employees across retail, hospitality, transportation and the like.

Adults with household income of at least $100,000 are three times more likely than families that make $50,000 or less to say they are working from home more often as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. Twenty-three percent of the affluent group say their employer has mandated a remote work policy compared to 13% of those in households making $50,000 or less.

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Some employers are scrambling to implement policies to care for their employees amid such extenuating circumstances. Seventeen percent of adults whose households make $100,000 or more say their employer has explicitly offered to cover out-of-pocket healthcare costs for preventative care, (e.g., C19 testing, PCP visits), compared to six percent of those families making less than $50,000.

This is a fluid situation. Some of us are caregivers, tutors, remote workers, daycare providers. And life has completely changed for many Americans, Gerzema said. There are big frustrations that their employers are lagging. Businesses have been caught flat footed. From the workers point of view, there hasnt been a strong cadence of communication or demonstration of actual policies.

________

Melody Hahm is Yahoo Finances west coast correspondent, covering entrepreneurship, technology and culture. Follow her on Twitter@melodyhahm.

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Americans fear the coronavirus but most aren't changing their behavior, poll finds - Yahoo Finance

Joggers are pictured running next to a deserted Tower of London. The UK has had 3,269 confirmed coronavirus cases since the outbreak was identified. (Getty Images)

The coronavirus death rate may be lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated, research suggests.

With the virus virtually unheard of at the start of the year, experts have been racing to uncover how dangerous it really is and the patients most likely to succumb to complications.

At the beginning of March, the WHO announced the virus had killed 3.4% of patients worldwide, which other experts called a likely overestimate.

To learn more, scientists from The University of Hong Kong looked at the 48,557 confirmed cases that had arisen as of 29 February in the Chinese city Wuhan, where the outbreak emerged.

They found the average death rate among patients under 30 was 0.3%, rising to 0.5% for those between 30 and 59, and 2.6% for people aged 60 or above.

Overall, they calculated the fatality rate to be 1.4%.

Although promising, experts have stressed estimating death rates in the midst of an outbreak is fraught with difficulties.

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The coronavirus is thought to have emerged at a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan at the end of last year.

It has since spread to more than 160 countries, across every inhabited continent.

Since the outbreak began, more than 246,000 cases have been confirmed, of whom over 86,000 have recovered, according to John Hopkins University data.

Cases have been plateauing in China since the end of February, with Europe now the epicentre of the pandemic.

Italy alone has had more than 41,000 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths.

In the UK, 3,269 people have tested positive for the virus, of whom 145 have died.

Globally, the death toll has exceeded 10,000.

The new coronavirus was officially identified as the cause of an outbreak of illness in Wuhan on 9 January.

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In an attempt to combat the infection, scientists quickly got to work uncovering how severe the infection could be.

Using public and published information, the Hong Kong scientists looked at the 48,557 casesin Wuhan, of whom 2,169 died.

Based on this, the scientists calculated the overall symptomatic death rate in Wuhan at the start of the outbreak to range from 0.9%to-2.1%, averaging at 1.4%.

Compared to those aged between 30 and 59 , the patients aged 60 or over were on average 5.1 times more likely to die after developing symptoms, according to results published in the journal Nature Medicine.

Patients without symptoms would likely have gone unreported and not been included in the analysis.

This is a detailed epidemiological analysis and the results are cautiously encouraging, in that they indicate a lower fatality rate from [the coronavirus] than has thus far been estimated, said Professor Robin May from the University of Birmingham.

Using patient data from the original epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, they show an overall death rate of around 1.4% of symptomatic cases, which is lower than previous estimates.

They also show that mortality rates appear to be very low for people under 50 (around 0.3-0.5%) which is, again, promising.

He stressed, however, the same results may not apply to other areas of the pandemic.

Death rates can vary according to the strength of the countrys health service.

One important caveat, is this study is based primarily on data from Wuhan and therefore does not necessarily reflect mortality rates that may be seen in other areas of the world, said Professor May.

As with all epidemiological models, it also relies on various assumptions which, since we still know relatively little about the course of this infection in human populations, may not be entirely accurate.

That said, however, this is a very important new piece of data that will help guide the public health response to this pandemic.

The Hong Kong research comes after WHOs director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on 3 March: Globally, about 3.4% of reported [coronavirus] cases have died.

Death rates are defined as the percentage of cases that die.

This is different from the death toll, which is the total number of deaths.

On 29 January, the WHO cited a likely death rate of 2%.

Just a few days later, the Chinese National Health Commission reported it appeared to be 2.1%, based on 425 deaths among 20,438 confirmed cases.

On 20 February, a WHO-China joint statement put the death rate at 3.8% based on 2,114 deaths among 55,924 cases.

The UK is only routinely testing hospital patients for the coronavirus, who are severe by definition.

With early research suggesting the infection is mild in four out of five cases, many non-serious incidences in the community will likely go unreported, skewing the death rate.

We do not report all the cases, Professor John Edmunds from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine previously said.

In fact, we only usually report a small proportion of them.

If there are many more cases in reality, then the case-fatality ratio will be lower.

Asymptomatic infections similarly confuse how the death rate is calculated.

Since subclinical [an infection not severe enough to cause observable symptoms] and asymptomatic infections have been reported, [the] true case-fatality ratio cannot be estimated until population surveys can be undertaken to estimate the proportion of individuals that were infected but did not manifest symptoms, Dr Toni Ho from the University of Glasgow previously said.

Taking into account those with mild or no symptoms, Dr Christl Donnelly from Imperial College London estimated a 1% fatality rate appears more likely.

In an unfolding epidemic it can be misleading to look at the nave estimate of deaths so far divided by cases so far, she previously said.

The infection-fatality ratio is the proportion of infections (including those with no symptoms or mild symptoms) that die of the disease.

Our estimate for this is 1%.

Death rates can also change if countries alter how they define a case.

Cases spiked in China when it started defining a patient as definitely infected if they presented with symptoms, alongside a CT scan showing a chest infection.

Beforehand, patients were confirmed via a nucleic acid test. Nucleic acids are substances in living cells, making up the NA of DNA.

As a result, cases appeared to spike overnight in mid-February, despite one expert stressing it was solely an administrative issue.

Quarantines and other interventions can also make the population less exposed to the infection, driving death rates down.

A lack of awareness at the start of the outbreak may have meant patients only sought treatment when their symptoms became severe.

Death rates could also reduce as patients start self-identifying their symptoms earlier on.

The best estimates of case-fatality rates would have to occur once an epidemic was over, Dr Tom Wingfield from the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine previously said.

Estimating in real time during the epidemic is fraught with difficulties.

The coronavirus is a strain of a class of viruses, with seven known to infect humans.

Others include the common cold and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which killed 774 people during its 2002/3 outbreak.

The coronavirus tends to cause flu-like symptoms initially, such as a fever, cough or slight breathlessness.

It mainly spreads face-to-face via infected droplets coughed or sneezed out by a patient.

There is also evidence itcan be transmitted in faeces and urine.

While most cases are mild, pneumonia can come about if the infection spreads to the air sacs in the lungs, causing them to become inflamed and filled with fluid or pus.

The lungs then struggle to draw in air, resulting in reduced oxygen in the bloodstream and a build-up of carbon dioxide.

The coronavirus has no set treatment, with most patients naturally fighting off the infection.

Those requiring hospitalisation are offered supportive care, like ventilation, while their immune system gets to work.

Officials urge people ward off the infection bywashing their hands regularlyandmaintaining social distancing.

Original post:

Coronavirus' death rate found to be lower than World Health Organization estimates - Yahoo Sports

Jameis Winston bade farewell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following the signing of Tom Brady, with the outgoing quarterbacktelling fans hewould see them at February's Super Bowl.

The Bucs completed the marquee acquisition of Brady on Friday, the 42-year-oldhaving left the New England Patriots earlier in the week after winning a record six Super Bowl rings.

Winston led the NFLin passing yardage in 2019 but the first overall pick in the 2015 draft also threw a league-high 30 interceptions as Tampa Bay missed the playoffs for a 12th successive season.

His inconsistency and Brady's availability meant the Bucs did not re-sign Winston and sohe will be playing for another team in 2020, a campaignwhich ends with a Super Bowl at Tampa Bay's Raymond James Stadium.

"It's been a great 5 seasons as a Buccaneer," Winston wrote on Twitter alongside a picture of the night he was drafted five years ago.

"All love and respect, I love Tampa and I look forward to seeing y'all again in February. #SBLV #2020Vision #Dreamforever."

Winston threw for 19,737 yards, 121 touchdowns and 88 interceptionsacross five seasons with the Buccaneers. He is the team's all-time leaderfor both passing yardage and touchdowns thrown.

With top free agents Brady and Philip Rivers having found new homes at the Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts respectively, and Ryan Tannehill re-signing with the Tennessee Titans, there appears to no obvious landing spot for Winston.

His gunslinger mentality means he is unlikely to be a fit to replace Brady in New England, while the Los Angeles Chargers, having reportedly missed out on the former Patriots quarterback themselves, could roll the dice with Tyrod Taylor or select a rookie quarterback such as Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the draft.

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Jameis Winston bids Tampa Bay farewell: See you at the Super Bowl! - Yahoo Sports

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The 2020 Tokyo Olympics will be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to longtime International Olympic Committee member Dick Pound.

On the basis of the information the IOC has, postponement has been decided, Pound said in a phone interview with USA Today. The parameters going forward have not been determined, but the Games are not going to start on July 24, that much I know.

As for when the IOC will announce its next steps, Pound said it will come in stages. We will postpone this and begin to deal with all the ramifications of moving this, which are immense.

Pound said that the Games are likely to be moved to 2021. When USA Today reached out to the IOC for comment, spokesperson Mike Adams responded via text: Well, as we announced yesterday, we are looking at scenarios."

IOC president Thomas Bach announced on Sunday that the IOC would take the next month to decide how to proceed with the 2020 Olympics in light of the coronavirus pandemic, which has shut down all sports for the foreseeable future. He did not commit to any path of action, but did for the first time acknowledge that postponement was a possibility. That admission came after several governing bodies called on Bach to postpone the Olympics, and after Canada said they would not send any athletes to the 2020 Olympics if they happened this year.

Postponing the Olympics is exceedingly complex. The entire event requires harmony among an interconnected web of athletes, governing bodies, city and national governments, local venues, businesses, and more. Its not as simple as moving everything forward a year especially if a COVID-19 vaccine has yet to be developed and widely administered.

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IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympics will be postponed - Yahoo Sports

Italians in quarantine are sharing important messages to themselves to who they were 10 days prior to the nationwide shutdown, to be specific and now a compilations of those videos has gone viral world-wide. In an effort to warn others about how detrimental the coronavirus outbreak really is, the creators of the video are speaking out about why people must pay attention.

The video, which has received over 3.7 million views on YouTube alone, was created by a Milano-based creative collective called A THING BY, founded in part by a man named Olmo Parenti. He tells Yahoo Lifestyle via email that while their city is at the epicenter of the coronavirus spread in Italy and Europe, theyve channeled their efforts into communicating the impact of this disease with others, which they admittedly didnt take seriously at first.

When we were first informed by Italian media about the coronavirus reaching Italy my friend group and I (along with the majority of the country) really underestimated the issue; we were almost mocking the few people who believed the issue was serious from the get-go, Parenti says. But once we saw what was happening in Italys hospitals and we found ourselves stuck at home we decided we had to redeem ourselves in some way.

He goes on to explain that hes watched as people in the United States, England, Germany and France have responded to the coronavirus with the same lack of urgency or understanding as many Italians did in the beginning, and decided to create something that can save nations from making that same mistake. We all realized how much our viewpoint had changed so quickly, Parenti says, which lent to the idea of A THING BYs latest video, published on March 15.

We werent sure how people would react to our request; filming yourself talking in first person to yourself from 10 days ago directly into a camera isnt the most comfortable thing to do (I know cause I tried). So we first asked our family and friends to do some tests and then once we saw their videos we also asked people on social media from all around Italy to send us their videos, he explains. The response was very surprising.

The result is a collection of video diaries from over a dozen Italians who address their past selves when they were making light of the coronavirus, making fun of those wearing masks and pushing to live their normal every day lives.

Idiot, one person calls herself.

The worst case scenario? another prompts, Thats exactly what will happen.

Another goes on to address that countries like the U.S. are likely in the same place that Italians were 10 days ago. A huge mess is about to happen, one warns. Another says, This issue is more serious than most of the world believes.

Parenti explains that the hope is that the video will reflect how much other nations can help themselves by taking the coronavirus seriously now. The situation is serious and Im afraid most countries are already late (just like we were) in containing the spread of the virus, he says. The cool thing about mistakes is that you can learn from other peoples too...Learn from our mistakes and dont underestimate this. We usually love taking risks ourselves, but this is not the time.

People all over have responded to the powerful video and urged that it continues to be shared as its been re-posted by people like Katie Couric and platforms like the @feminist Instagram page. Parenti adds that A THING BY is currently working on a piece about the first two weeks of complete lockdown so that citizens of other nations can know whats coming.

Most importantly, however, Parenti hopes that the camaraderie demonstrated by Italians is something that others can be inspired by.

Within this health crisis weve seen Italians unite in a way that was probably unprecedented, he says. I hope the same can happen between all nations fighting in this.

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For the latest news on the evolving coronavirus outbreak,follow along here. According to experts, people over 60 and those who are immunocompromised continue to be the most at risk. If you have questions, please reference theCDCandWHOsresource guides.

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Creators behind viral video of quarantined Italians share warning: Learn from our mistakes and dont underestimate this - Yahoo Lifestyle

If you want to know how long social distancing will interrupt the American workforce as you know, ask an epidemiologist. The answer, of course, is: it depends, as duration could be curtailed or extended depending on how the U.S. responds.

If you suppress the epidemic your population is still susceptible, Penn State epidemiologist Maciej Boni explained Thursday on Yahoo Finances The First Trade.

Theres a difference between suppressing a disease and establishing so-called herd immunity, according to Boni. Herd immunity occurs when enough people are exposed to the disease, overcome it, and develop immunity, either through person-to-person transmission, or through vaccination, making it difficult for a disease to spread.

If we dont establish herd immunity, a second wave in the U.S. could happen over the 2020-2021 winter, Boni said. It might start in October or November when the school gets back into session and it probably means 12 months of hardship for all of us, he said.

As countries around the globe have already shown, theres more than one recipe to wrestle COVID-19. Some are comparatively swift and absent a vaccine leave populations vulnerable to a punishing second round of health and economic turmoil. Others lag and simultaneously breed risk of increased death as well as potential to inoculate masses from its future viral wrath.

According to Boni, three timeline scenarios could play out, and they depend in part on a populations approach to controlling its spread.

One is the scenario that unfolded in China and South Korea where early quarantine and extreme social distancing measures suppressed the virus within about a month. While effective for quickly reducing person to person spread, the method falls short of protecting a population from a second wave, according to Boni.

We don't know what the endgame is, because when you lift the suppressive measures, the virus will come back, Boni said.

Story continues

A second scenario is where the virus transmits successfully during the summer, meaning enough of the population contracts and overcomes the virus to establish herd immunity which Boni says could happen as early as late fall so that it will cease to again threaten at pandemic levels.

Under a third scenario, the virus fails to transmit successfully during the summer, and like scenario one, continues to rear its head. Under both the first and third possibilities the rate of transmission hopefully slows enough to buy the healthcare system and its workers adequate time to develop a vaccine or treatment, and to fortify hospitals and treatment facilities to handle resurgence.

It's like looking at the first 60 minutes of a hurricane and saying it's almost over, Boni said. It's not almost over at all. If thevirus can transmitin the summer under scenario 3 we'll see an epidemic wave that lasts through the summer and possibly through the end of the summer.

Dr. Karen Edwards, professor and chair of University of Californias epidemiology department, told Yahoo Finance that the number of new COVID-19 cases would need to remain at zero for 14 consecutive days before any consideration to relax social distancing practices and send Americans back to work. The challenge, she, said is getting all Americans to adopt cohesive social distancing practices that can accomplish the two-week goal.

The recommendations and guidelines about social distancing have been very patchwork across this country and there are probably some places that are not even really doing this at this point, so that's just going to prolong things, Edwards said.

All Americans need to participate in social distancing on a national level to get transmission under control, she said. In a perfect scenario, she said, if everyone in the U.S. immediately adopted aggressive social distancing measures it could theoretically take two weeks to see the first day of no new cases. Under a best case scenario, that means social distancing practices could be relaxed in a month.

I don't think we're, unfortunately, anywhere close to that situation, Edwards said. And part of the problem is we haven't been tested.

Policy that achieves a rate of no new cases while balancing life and death interests is a challenge authorities face.

Some uninformed people have said, Why not just let everybody get it and develop this immunity faster? The problem is the health care system would be overwhelmed, Edwards said.

If unmitigated in the U.S., the epidemic would likely kill 1 to 2 million Americans, alone, according to Boni. One million people will die, he said, and each [person] will know two or three people who will die.

Edwards agreed with Bonis projection, adding a caveat that the total global number of deaths will vary depending on the age of individuals exposed and other conditions that may heighten risk.

Boni said Americans are unlikely to adopt the extreme measures taken in China, which will prolong the spread of disease within U.S. borders and delay a return to life as usual.

Shortening the duration and curbing the number of deaths will also depend on how quickly diagnostic and immunity tests can be made available and developed. Availability of an antibody test, for example, would reveal which individuals are already immune to COVID-19 and allow authorities to understand the percent of the population that could safely resume social interaction, including work and general participation in the economy, Edwards explained.

While the pandemic persists, Boni said some jobs outside of essential businesses can still be done in-person and responsibly. The key is to determine that the work would not contribute to the pandemic.

If you can go to work and wash your hands all the time, contact other people minimally, and not be in large crowds then, yes, you're adding a minimalamount of risk to the overall epidemic, he said.

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Alexis Keenan is a New York-based reporter for Yahoo Finance and former litigation attorney.

Follow Alexis Keenan on Twitter@alexiskweed.

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COVID-19 could make a resurgence this fall depending on US response, infectious disease specialist - Yahoo Money

At a White House briefing on Tuesday, President Trump said no one took the danger of the coronavirus more seriously than he did.

Ive always known this isa real this is a pandemic, said Trump. I felt it was a pandemic longbefore it was called a pandemic.

He doubled down on Wednesday morning in a tweet.

I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning, including my very early decision to close the borders from China - against the wishes of almost all, wrote Trump, referring to the coronavirus with a term that many consider offensive and medical experts discourage. Many lives were saved. The Fake News new narrative is disgraceful & false!

But reality undercuts Trumps assertions. In fact, the president downplayed the virus for weeks as it raged across other parts of the world and he was urged to begin mobilization against it in the United States.

We have it totally under control,he said on Jan. 22, adding, Its one person coming in from China. We have it under control. Its going to be just fine.

Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away, Trump said at a Feb. 10 rally in New Hampshire.

On Feb. 24, Trump tweeted, The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

The Dow Jones average closed at 27,960 that day. Shortly after the open on Wednesday it was 20,127, approximately where it was when Trump took office in 2017.

The following day, White House National Economic Council DirectorLarry Kudlowsaid on CNBC,We have contained this, I wont say airtight but pretty close to airtight.

On Feb. 26, Trump said at a coronavirus briefing, When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, thats a pretty good job weve done.

Story continues

On March 6, Vice President Mike Pence had to correct Trumpabout the rules on testing. In a White House briefing, Trump said, Anybody that needs a test gets a test for coronavirus, a misleading statement at the time and still not the case. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has badly lagged other countries in preparing a nationwide testing regime. Yet Trump repeated his claim on March 12, stating, Frankly, the testing has been going very smooth.

Going beyond Trumps remarks in public, Politico has reported that the presidentdiscouraged widespread testing for the virus to keep the number of confirmed infections low. He said as much on March 6 when he discussed keeping sick people on a cruise ship off the coast of California because he didnt want them counted in the U.S. total.

I would rather because I like the numbers being where they are, Trump said. I dont need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasnt our fault. And it wasnt the fault of the people on the ship either, OK? It wasnt their fault either, and theyre mostly Americans. So, I can live either way with it. Id rather have them stay on, personally.

On March 6 when Trump made those comments, the number of confirmed cases in the United States was 307. As of Wednesday morning, there were 6,496.

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Trump claims he always took coronavirus seriously, but the record says otherwise - Yahoo News