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Colson Baker and Megan Fox met on the set of 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Lionsgate / Courtesy Everett Collection)

The rest of the world learned that Megan Fox and Colson Baker, aka Machine Gun Kelly, were an item in May 2020, when word of their romance, and her breakup from husband Brian Austin Green, first hit headlines. But producer-turned-director Randall Emmett who inadvertently orchestrated the most high-profile on-set romance since Bennifer 1.0 when he cast both performers in his directorial debut, Midnight in the Switchgrass was clued into their chemistry much earlier. Fox and Baker shot their first scene together on the first day of production in March 2020, and Emmett remembers feeling a palpable electricity right away.

"There was magic in that room, 100 percent," he tells Yahoo Entertainment now. "I sat there behind the monitor, and there were takes where I was so mesmerized by their performances that I would forget to say 'Action!' Megan sometimes had to be like, 'Randall, are you going to call 'Action?' I was like, 'Oh my god my bad!'"

In interviews, Fox and Baker have both been open about how quickly their mutual attracton sparked on the film's Puerto Rico set. "The second I was in a room with him and said hello to him and looked into his eyes, I knew right away that he was what I call a twin flame," Fox said on the podcast Give Them Lala... With Randall last year. Similarly, Baker told Howard Stern: "I didn't know what [love] was until me and her made eye contact. That's when I was like, 'Whoa.'"

Emmett is quick to say that whatever feelings his stars were wrestling with off-camera, they didn't let it interfere with the shoot. "As a director, I felt, 'Wow, there's some real magic happening there,' but I didn't see any more than that," he recalls. "They're both incredible actors, and their chemistry was flawless. I was just looking at them and thinking, 'Wow, that was a great scene,'" but didn't really think about anything else."

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Fox, Randall Emmett and Baker on the set of 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Courtesy of Lionsgate)

To be fair, Emmett had larger things on his mind anyway. Midnight in the Switchgrass started production in Puerto Rico just as the coronarvirus pandemic broke across the globe. After two days of shooting, the movie shut down and the cast and crew returned to quarantine in the U.S. And that's also when Fox and Baker's romance started in earnest. "It wasn't until after we shut down and went home that the relationship began," Emmett says now.

While it may have resulted in an on-set romance, Midnight in the Switchgrass is the opposite of romantic. Written by Alan Horsnail and based on the true-life case of Texas's infamous Truck Stop Killer, the film casts Fox as no-nonsense FBI agent, Rebecca Lombardi, whose attempts to crack a sex trafficking case alongside her partner (Bruce Willis) and another law enforcement officer (Emile Hirsch) bring her into contact with a serial killer (Lukas Haas) preying on young women. Baker plays a low-level thug who is on the receiving end of Fox's fury not just once, but twice. "I told him that Megan was going to kick his ass," Emmett says of how he initially. pitched the role to the musician-turned-actor.

Fox and Baker only have two scenes in the film, and both were shot before the pandemic-mandated shutdown. Emmett says he resisted adding more material for them after production resumed in June 2020, by which time their romance was public. "They were so good together, I did say to the writer, 'I wish we had more. Maybe Colson's character could come back and try to kick Megan's ass and Megan just takes him down.' But I was only joking: we shot exactly what was in the script."

A year-and-a-half since they filmed their first scene, viewers can finally. experience a little bit of Fox and Baker's "magic" when Midnight in the Switchgrass premieres in theaters and on most VOD services on July 23. For his part, Emmett is just glad the movie is finally out in the world. "It's great that people are excited to see the movie because of them, but I think when they see it, they'll see two really, really great performances. It's fun to say that it happened on my movie and maybe I had some hand in it, but I believe as Megan believes that fate is fate. A lot of fate happened on this movie, and at the end of the day it's nice to see two people so happy and in love."

In a wide-ranging conversation, we spoke with Emmett about how Baker very nearly turned down the role that would have brought him into Fox's orbit, and why the Transformers star wanted this to be her most "basic" role.

Yahoo Entertainment: What has it been like having this larger story about your two stars' romance surrounding the movie?

Randall Emmett: They say any press is good press I guess! [Laughs] Because of all the pandemic-caused shutdowns and restarts, I've been involved on a movie that was supposed to be an 18-day shoot for over a year now. So its been a journey! I really, really wanted Colson to be in it, but I got rejected by his agency at first. Two weeks before shooting began, I got his number and I reached out directly and told him how much I wanted him for the movie. He was like, "That is so badass that you are this persistent. I've got to do this." So he ended up committing and when he came to the set, he was exactly what I hoped for: a super-artistic person. He just wanted to won the character, and as a director, I couldn't have asked for anything better.

Baker and Fox in a scene from 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Courtesy of Lionsgate)

He has since admitted in interviews that he vowed to marry Megan Fox in high school. Looking back now, do you think that's why he said yes when you called him?

I don't know! I've read that recently, too. I did not know that he said he was going to marry Megan Fox when he was in high school, but he definitely knew Megan was in the movie because I told him who was in the cast, and also that Megan was going to kick his ass. [Laughs] So he definitely knew, and he had read the script, but we didn't have a conversation about that he was going to marry her. The one thing about Colson that I realized and others will as he does more movies is that he's an incredible artist. He really gives a s*** about the work, and when he committed to this movie, he committed to it. And then the rest kind of just fell into place. So it was a win across the board, I guess!

We haven't seen Megan Fox play this kind of role before. How did you decide on her as the star of the film?

She was my first choice. It's weird because as a producer, all I do is make lists [of actors]. When you produce a movie, you come up with 10 names, sit with a director and say, "I need to get one of these names to be able to raise the financing, and get the studio on board." I'm like the business person, and the director is the creative one. Since I was the director on this one, I was also the artist.

I remember reading the script and her agent had pitched her, and my casting director had pitched her. I was like, Oh my god, Megan Fox would kill this. It's a strong role with a lot of vulnerability, and she's got all those gears that you haven't seen from her. Shes a superstar, and this is a meaty role. I didn't think she'd be interested, but when we offered it to her, her agent called me and said, "She loves these script and wants to do it. We think its going to be something special."

Fox in a scene from 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Lionsgate/Courtesy Everett Collection)

The first time I met her was in Puerto Rico when she came in for rehearsals and fittings. We had to do this scene where she's locked up in chains, and I remember telling her: "I'm really an authentic director, so I want to put real chains on you to make you feel what this woman is going through not in a Hollywood way with fake chains. If you're not comfortable with that, you have to tell me." She looked at me and she's like, "Do you know the kind of movies I've done? There's nothing you can do, that's going to freak me out." And I'm thinking, "This chick has fought robots, she's been thrown through walls, she's jumped off buildings!"

That's who Megan Fox is. She really, really loves making movies and playing characters that she believes in. When she's in it, she's all the way in. Working with her was an incredible experience. She already is incredibly talented so it makes my job easy, but at the same time. I wanted to push her to try things and be open. She would always just look at me and say, "Just tell me what you need, whatever it is." For a director, especially a first-time director, you couldn't ask for better.

As a performer, she's very aware of her on-screen image. What conversations did you have about how she'd appear in this film?

We talked about her being really basic an FBI agent who doesn't give a shit what she looks like. This will be the most basic wardrobe anyone will ever seen on Megan Fox! [Laughs] I remember the day we filmed the scene where she goes undercover as a prostitute, I gave her a bunch of choices for the wardrobe and the more conservative one you see in the film was the one she picked, and it was also my first choice. She really got the character and wanted to embody an FBI agent who is all about justice. Rebecca is one of those people in law enforcement who care about saving the day, and saving girls who don't have voices. I didn't want that to get lost, and Megan felt the same.

Fox plays FBI agent Rebecca Lombardi in 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Courtesy of Lionsgate)

To that point, Midnight in the Switchgrass is very grim in the way it presents a story of sexual violence and trafficking. Is that subject matter you felt was important to address right now?

I definitely think it's important, and something that's not being discussed. A lot of these girls don't have voices: they're thrown away by society because they're addicts or prostitutes or runaways. Society doesn't take an interest in them, because they feel they've made this decision for themselves, and that's the part I have a hard time with. The truth is they need to have a voice, even if they're experiencing hard times or made bad choices. That doesn't mean they're not human beings and that's what I loved about this story.

It was nice to see Witness star Lukas Haas back in a major role as well.

Lukas and I were friends before this movie. He's such an incredibly giving actor and his body of work before the age of 18 is remarkable. He's popped up in a few movies here and there over the last decade, but now hes really back. One thing I told him is: "When you're a great actor, it doesn't matter if you're kind of quiet for a little bit." Just look at Robert Downey Jr. a few decades ago and look at him today he's the biggest box-office star in the world. So I feel like Lukas is really going to have a couple of great years coming up. He's shooting a new movie with Brad Pitt now, and I'm really excited for him.

Fox and Bruce Willis in a scene from 'Midnight in the Switchgrass' (Photo: Courtesy of Lionsgate)

You've produced numerous movies that feature Bruce Willis what was it like directing him for the first time?

As a producer, when I walk on a set and see Bruce, I give him a hug, sit in my chair, watch the director direct and then we go to dinner and I go home. When I was directing and Bruce walked onto the set, I was petrified! He's a guy that I've known for 15 years, but I had to talk to him in a very different light. If I didn't like something, I'd have to tell him. So it was a whole other psychology, but it ended up being better than I expected because he's a giving actor.

He did this as a favor to me, not for the kind of money that he takes on all of his other movies. I mean, he's Bruce Willis he doesn't need a lot of direction. That's why I wanted to cast great actors in this: half the battle is already won there. It's not like I had to teach anybody how to act! I was the one taking lessons throughout this whole thing. Your job as the captain is to steer the ship and that's what I tried to do, and I feel very lucky that everybody was very open to an artistic process on my first film.

Midnight in the Switchgrass premieres July 23 in theaters and on digital and on demand services.

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Megan Fox and Machine Gun Kelly's first day on set of 'Midnight in the Switchgrass': 'There was magic in that room,' says director - Yahoo...

It is hard to get excited after looking at American Public Education's (NASDAQ:APEI) recent performance, when its stock has declined 12% over the past three months. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a companys financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study American Public Education's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for American Public Education

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for American Public Education is:

6.1% = US$25m US$401m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.06 in profit.

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

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At first glance, American Public Education's ROE doesn't look very promising. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 9.8%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. For this reason, American Public Education's five year net income decline of 12% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared American Public Education's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 14% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. Its important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is American Public Education fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Overall, we have mixed feelings about American Public Education. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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Are American Public Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:APEI) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market? - Yahoo Finance

WASHINGTON Certainties may be rare in Washington these days, but blowups between Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top medical adviser to President Biden, have become one of the few reliable features of life inside the Beltway, right up there with the relentless humidity of summer.

That much was made clear, once again, during a hearing of the Senate Health Committee on Tuesday, during which the two sparred over the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.

Paul accused Fauci of misrepresenting, in earlier testimony, the nature of U.S. government funding of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, where some believe the virus originated as the result of a lab experiment gone awry. He ended his characteristically long question by reminding Fauci that it is a crime to lie to Congress.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., questions Dr. Anthony Fauci at a Senate Health Committee hearing on Tuesday. (J. Scott Applewhite, Pool via AP)

Fauci did not take to the suggestion kindly. I have not lied before the Congress, the veteran government immunologist responded. He rejected Pauls offer to retract his earlier testimony about U.S. funding of viral research into the pandemics shadowy beginnings.

Sen. Paul, you do not know what you are talking about, quite frankly, Fauci continued. And I want to say that officially.

Never one for niceties, Paul charged that Fauci was trying to obscure responsibility for the devastation the coronavirus has caused around the world.

From there, unsurprisingly, the tone escalated. I totally resent the lie that you are now propagating, Fauci snarled back at the senator.

There was shouting and gesticulating, with lots of heat but little light. Committee Chair Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., tried to intervene, to little effect.

Fauci testifies at Tuesday's hearing. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP/Pool via via Getty Images)

As evidence of his allegation, Paul cited a scientific research paper into bat viruses by a Wuhan researcher. The research in question had been partially supported by the National Institutes of Health. (In addition to serving as an adviser to the White House, Fauci is head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is part of the NIH.)

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Fauci in turn told Paul, who is an ophthalmologist by training, that he had failed to understand the research, adding that it was molecularly impossible for the Wuhan Institute of Virology to have conducted the kind of research that would have led to the advent of SARS-CoV-2.

Paul has previously said that the NIH did not permit Chinese laboratories to use funds from the United States for gain-of-function research, which boosts viruses in order to study their behavior.

Conservatives have seized on Faucis email exchanges with other scientists which were made public as part of a Freedom of Information Act request to suggest he is hiding the complicity of the U.S. medical establishment. There is no evidence of such complicity, or of a cover-up, but the lack of cooperation from Beijing has allowed conspiracy theories about Fauci and others to proliferate.

If anybody is lying here, Senator, it is you, Fauci said near the end of their terse exchange, which, as he himself noted, fell into a somewhat predictable pattern.

Fauci responds in a terse exchange with Paul on Tuesday. (J. Scott Applewhite/Pool via AP)

Indeed, Fauci and Paul were not exactly friends before Tuesdays exchange. At a hearing in June 2020, Paul challenged Fauci on school closures, although Fauci had said he supported reopening schools for in-person instruction, provided proper preventive measures like mask wearing were taken.

Before answering the senator on that occasion, Fauci offered what appeared to be a good-natured smile, saying he was in lock agreement about school reopening.

The exchanges between them would grow more acrimonious, with ever fewer agreements and smiles. That may have had to do with conservatives growing hostility toward Fauci, who ran afoul of President Donald Trump, despite having served as his adviser.

In March 2021, Fauci and Paul argued at a Senate hearing on face masks, which had by then become the subject of an intense culture war but which were also widely accepted as a fact of pandemic life by most Americans. Paul wondered why Fauci and others who were vaccinated parade around in two masks for show, since vaccinated people appear to be at exceptionally low risk for either contracting or spreading the coronavirus.

I totally disagree with you, Fauci responded. He then went on a morning news show and described Paul as dead wrongon this point.

Paul in the heated exchange Tuesday. (Stefani Reynolds/The New York Times/Pool via AP)

Several weeks later, Paul confronted Fauci with the issue at the heart of Tuesdays exchange: whether the NIH inadvertently funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab that has been at the center of scrutiny over the origin of the pandemic. Such research is necessary, scientists say, to see how viruses evolve. But if that research is conducted in a laboratory with lax biosecurity standards, the danger of the virus escaping could increase substantially.

During that encounter, Fauci said Pauls accusation of potential impropriety was entirely and completely incorrect."

Fauci and NIH Director Francis Collins have both said the NIH did not fund gain-of-function research. The funding went through an intermediary called EcoHealth Alliance, a New York-based not-for-profit organization whose founder, Dr. Peter Daszak, has a close relationship with virologists in Wuhan and has vigorously defended them against accusations of wrongdoing.

Although conservatives like Paul have long championed the hypothesis that the virus escaped from the laboratory, the notion that human error is responsible for the coronavirus has gained traction with the American public.

President Biden has instructed the U.S. intelligence community to produce an assessment of how the pandemic originated. That assessment is expected by summers end.

Cover thumbnail photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: Stefani Reynolds/The New York Times /Pool via AP

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Fauci to Rand Paul: 'If anybody is lying here, Senator, it is you' - Yahoo News

TOKYO On Friday, July 23, 2021, the Olympics will begin with reference after reference to a year that is, well, not 2021.

In fact, throughout Tokyo, 2020 is everywhere. Its on airport signs and road signs and flags, on uniforms and photographer bibs and lanyards, on taxis and Games-related vehicles and more. Even the WiFi network on an Olympics shuttle bus is named Sushi2020.

Because the 2021 Olympics are, officially, the 2020 Olympics. But why?

The answer, of course, stems from the postponement of the Games last March, from 2020 to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, organizers agreed that the Games will keep the name Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020.

And that decision, for the most part, was a commercial decision.

There are many reasons, a Tokyo organizing committee source told Yahoo Sports. One of them, he said, was that last year in March, torches, medals, other branding items, and merchandise were already being made using the name Tokyo 2020 and a name change would have meant additional costs.

In other words, Olympic organizers had already committed millions upon millions of dollars to the "Tokyo 2020" brand. They were ready to sell physical representations of it t-shirts, flags, mascot stuffed animals, souvenirs of all kinds. They were also ready to sell it intangibly, backed by full-fledged marketing campaigns developed over multiple years.

National Stadium, where the opening and closing ceremonies for the Olympics will be held, is branded with "Tokyo 2020" like everywhere else. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)

The primary asset the IOC and Tokyo Organizing Committee sells is its intellectual property and the corresponding brand equity associated with the marks, logos, designations, symbols, etc., explained Michael Lynch, a veteran sports marketer who formerly managed Visas sponsorship of the Games. All that Olympic IP is branded 2020, including IOC and [organizing committee] creative, sponsor creative, advertising creative, promotional creative, licensed merchandise, tickets, on-site signage, events, you name it, all about to hit the market. It would be an enormous and unnecessary expense for all of this Olympic IP to be changed.

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And as Lynch mentioned, the expense wouldnt just hit organizers. It would hit their broadcast partners, their sponsors, anybody with a brand strategy related to the Olympics.

Some of them have developed creative rebrands, with logos that dub these the 202One Olympics, or that shape the inside of the second zero in 2020 as a 1.

(USA Swimming)

But the official branding remained Tokyo 2020, as it has been ever since the IOC awarded these Games to the Japanese capital way back on Sept. 7, 2013. Most Games stakeholders welcomed the decision to stick with the original name.

At the time of the decision, however, organizers hoped that 2021 would bring normalcy. That fans from around the globe would still travel to Tokyo to celebrate the resilience of humankind and to buy merch. Lots of it. Everything from clothing to chopsticks to umbrellas with the official Tokyo 2020 marks.

It had the potential to generate some $100 million, and much of it had already been manufactured. So organizers and licensed retailers stashed it away in warehouses, hoping it would fly off shelves come summer 2021.

Instead, they face massive losses because no fans will attend the Games at all. No tourists will descend on Tokyo. No locals will mill about outside stadiums and arenas, in bustling downtown areas and by Tokyo Bay. Many of the dozens of official merchandise shops throughout the host city have either closed or welcomed very few visitors. This aspect of the Tokyo 2020 strategy has been undone by the virus.

There was once a thought among some experts that the uniqueness of these Games, the first ever postponed, would make all that merchandise sellable as valuable collectors items. But the Olympics became so unpopular in Japan, and so fraught with controversy, that the brand likely has become irreversibly tarnished. Toyota recently pulled all its Japanese TV advertisements related to the Games.

Still, though, long before COVID, thousands of volunteer shirts and banners and other non-retail items were designed and made as if the 2020 Olympics were going to happen in 2020. And so they are, despite what calendars might tell you, still the 2020 Olympics.

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Mystery Solved: Why the 2021 Olympics are still called the Tokyo 2020 Olympics - Yahoo Sports

The board of ACNB Corporation (NASDAQ:ACNB) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 15th of September, with investors receiving US$0.25 per share. The dividend yield will be 3.6% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.

View our latest analysis for ACNB

If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. However, prior to this announcement, ACNB's dividend was comfortably covered by both cash flow and earnings. As a result, a large proportion of what it earned was being reinvested back into the business.

Over the next year, EPS could expand by 11.3% if recent trends continue. If the dividend continues on this path, the payout ratio could be 31% by next year, which we think can be pretty sustainable going forward.

historic-dividend

The company has a sustained record of paying dividends with very little fluctuation. Since 2011, the dividend has gone from US$0.76 to US$1.00. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 2.8% over that duration. While the consistency in the dividend payments is impressive, we think the relatively slow rate of growth is less attractive.

Investors could be attracted to the stock based on the quality of its payment history. We are encouraged to see that ACNB has grown earnings per share at 11% per year over the past five years. A low payout ratio and decent growth suggests that the company is reinvesting well, and it also has plenty of room to increase the dividend over time.

Overall, we like to see the dividend staying consistent, and we think ACNB might even raise payments in the future. Distributions are quite easily covered by earnings, which are also being converted to cash flows. All in all, this checks a lot of the boxes we look for when choosing an income stock.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Now, if you want to look closer, it would be worth checking out our free research on ACNB management tenure, salary, and performance. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our curated list of strong dividend payers.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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ACNB (NASDAQ:ACNB) Has Re-Affirmed Its Dividend Of US$0.25 - Yahoo Finance

Come 2034, incoming revenues will be enough to pay about 76% of scheduled Social Security benefits, a 2020 Social Security Administration trustees report predicts.

Given that, how might different generations plan for this? Should they plan for a 24% decline in their scheduled benefit? Should they not factor Social Security benefits into their retirement income plan at all? Or might they do something else.

Though I think it far more likely that some combination of reforms will eliminate the need for cuts of the magnitude the trustees report suggests, people should be aware of the impact a cut would have on their overall financial situation, says Joe Elsasser, a certified financial planner and president of Covisum.

Contact your Congressional representatives and make sure they hear your concern that Social Security needs a solution. Use every tax-advantaged vehicle available to you. Learn to be a better investor so the savings you do have delivers more in the long run.

What are some of those reforms? Tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both are the oft-mentioned reforms. But to date, there seems little to no interest on the part of lawmakers to tackle the coming shortfall between incoming revenue and scheduled benefits.

What to do then? The implications with Social Securitys solvency tend to fall on generational lines, explains Marcia Mantell, a principal with Mantell Retirement Consulting.

She agrees with Elsasser that Social Security beneficiaries and would-be beneficiaries ought to consider the following actions:

Social Security benefit estimates for those born 1946 through 1964 should be on target and will be unlikely to be reduced if Congress fails to put a solution in place to shore up the reserve account within the overall trust fund, or fails to increase payroll taxes to support the commitments made to these retirees, says Mantell.

Elsasser agrees but suggest taking some precautionary measures. Baby boomers should plan for benefits as they are projected, but stress test for a benefit cut, he says. Historically benefit cuts have been phased in over time.

For instance, the last solvency crisis of this magnitude occurred in 1983. And some of the reforms that were put in place are still being phased in today, such as the increase in full retirement age from 65 to 67, Elsasser notes.

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According to Elsasser, stress testing allows you to practice what you would change in your plan if the full cut materializes. If the cuts to your plan are too painful to bear if they do materialize, then make smaller changes now and monitor the situation, he says. Smaller cuts to your lifestyle sooner will hurt less than larger ones later.

Covisum has a benefit cut calculator that allows consumers to identify how benefit cuts would impact their break-even ages.

Social security quirks: Your birthday determines what day you get your check

Social Security: Why you should starting collecting benefits before 70

If you were born 1965 through 1980, planning for your retirement income becomes more important than ever, warns Mantell.

Elsasser recommends planning on a 10% reduction in your Social Security benefits and doing retirement projection that includes a reduced Social Security amount to balance your lifestyle today with the lifestyle youd like to live in retirement.

The good news about this bad news? For the 65 million of you who are between the ages of 41 and 56, you are in your peak earnings years, says Mantell. And that means you can and will need to ramp up your personal savings.

Youll be well-served to rethink, rebudget and redesign your spending and your savings strategy in case Social Security delivers less in income than currently projected, she cautions. You have time on your side, and every $1,000 or $2,000 or $5,000 you can sock away now will increase your income for retirement and balance out the trade-offs that you may have to make.

And whats the worst-scenario if you ramp up your savings and theres cut in Social Security benefits? You end up with more than you need, says Elsasser.

Experts say its too early for millennials and Gen Zers to worry about Social Security cutting benefits.

You are too young to confidently guess how Social Security will pay benefits, notes Mantell. Half of you dont even yet have your 40 credits for eligibility. So, your focus will be well-served to be on you.

Elsasser shares that point of view: Though its important for everyone, particularly if you are under 40, your focus should continue to be on improving your skills, education and training in order to maximize your earnings potential through your peak earnings years, he advises. Saving consistently in vehicles you wont touch until retirement is important as well. At minimum, be sure to take advantage of any company matches or incentives.

All this planning for a potential cut in benefits might be much ado about nothing, according to Michael Finke, a professor at the American College of Financial Services.

I dont know any expert in Social Security who believes that Congress will allow a significant cut to beneficiaries, he says. Politicians face a no-win situation where making changes today to shore up Social Security is painful, because it will either mean higher taxes or lower benefits, but the alternative to making no changes is worse having a big block of voters see a cut in their retirement income.

And this, he predicts, will motivate Congress to increase payroll taxes, increase the claiming age or change the inflation adjustment.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Social security cuts: What can you expect to get based on your age?

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How much of a cut to social security benefits can you expect based on your age? - Yahoo Finance

Higher demand and reduced supply could be drivers for higher reads on inflation. Another reason? Simple math.

Consider, for example, if prices increase by 30%. But what if prices fell by 30% before? Would that mean prices are back up to where they were?

Percentages dont tell the whole story, which is why looking at price levels can be just as important as looking at inflation rates.

Economists refer to the distortions in relative price changes as base effects.

Within the context of inflation, base effects refer to the impact of comparing current price levels in a given month against price levels in the same month a year ago.

These types of year-over-year comparisons are the most commonly cited measures of inflation, and are often the figures cited in major media reports covering new inflation data.

But 3% year-over-year increase in May doesnt provide enough context.

For example, a 3% year-over-year increase in May after an already elevated price level in May of last year would imply higher price levels than a 3% year-over-year increase after a depressed price level in May of last year.

The difference between those two scenarios illustrates the base effects that can come with year-over-year measures of inflation.

Yes. Thats because price levels cratered in the spring months of 2020, when a collapse in demand led to falling prices.

The Consumer Price Index is a major measure of inflation (the other being Personal Consumption Expenditures). Price levels as measured in the CPI declined in the early months of the pandemic. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

That means year-over-year measures of inflation through the spring months of 2021 saw base effects that may have contributed to the high inflation prints.

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, estimated that about 40% of the Consumer Price Index inflation reading in June could be due to base effects.

Oxford Economics estimated the impact of base effects on CPI inflation by looking at what the price level change would be when compared to the pre-pandemic price levels of January 2021 (effectively stripping out the base effects of pandemic declines in prices). Source: Oxford Economics

Base effects should fall out as year-over-year figures start to compare against year ago months in which the economy began to re-open.

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In this article, we discuss the 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of these stocks, go directly to Beyond GameStop: Reddit's WallStreetBets is Now Targeting These 5 Stocks.

Retail investors have been exercising ever greater influence on the overall market dynamics the past few months, as the record stock rallies of GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) have demonstrated. However, as their influence increases, so does the list of stocks that gain from this influence. The most popular platform where these retail investors exchange ideas is the Reddit forum WallStreetBets. The forum has more than 10.6 million members and is one of the hottest online places in finance.

Some of the stocks presently popular on WallStreetBets include Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS). Interestingly, the theory that stocks increase in value along with the number of mentions on this forum has been steadily gaining traction. In June, Financial Times reported that hedge funds were keeping track of stock mentions on Reddit after record losses in the GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) short squeeze.

One reason why institutional investors are monitoring these forums is the meme stocks - firms with little to offer in terms of earnings or growth but rally on the back of retail investor interest - that are often the subject of short-selling attempts. As retail investors initiate short squeezes, there is a danger of repeating the mistakes made during the GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) saga in January that led to billions of dollars in losses to big finance and even led to the closure of some hedge funds.

Even though retail investors have had the upper hand in this meme stock battle with hedge funds, there are early signs of these meme stocks running out of steam. News agency Reuters reports that GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) have both fallen to half their peak value reached early last month. Both stocks have registered four straight days of losses. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) is now trading at $167 while AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) was around $33, compared to June highs of $344 and $72.

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In recent weeks, there has also been increased interest around other internet platforms where retail investors gather to exchange ideas, like StockTwits and Robinhood. The former is a social media platform for stock traders and the latter is a trading application that is poised to go public at a $40 billion valuation soon. Adding fuel to this drop in popularity of WallStreetBets forum is that it has gone private, with moderators now in charge of approving access to new users after the forum came under heavy fire from institutional investors for promoting meme stocks.

However, the forum still exercises great influence in retail investor circles that is not going to be easy to diminish. The entire hedge fund industry is feeling the reverberations of the changing financial landscape. Its reputation has been tarnished in the last decade, during which its hedged returns couldnt keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. On the other hand, Insider Monkeys research was able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by more than 124 percentage points since March 2017. Between March 2017 and February 26th 2021 our monthly newsletters stock picks returned 197.2%, vs. 72.4% for the SPY. Our stock picks outperformed the market by more than 124 percentage points (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that significantly underperformed the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 13% through November 16th. Thats why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to. You can subscribe to our free newsletter on our homepage to receive our stories in your inbox.

Reddit's WallStreetBets is Now Targeting These 5 Stocks

Photo by Adam Nowakowski on Unsplash

With this context in mind, here is our list of the 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. These were ranked keeping in mind the number of mentions on Reddit, basic business fundamentals, and hedge fund sentiment around each.

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: N/A

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) is placed tenth on our list of 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. The stock has returned 22% to investors over the past year. The company markets digital financial services. On June 1, the stock was initiated at Outperform by Oppenheimer, which noted the uniqueness of the consumer focused fintech platform of the firm. The share price of the firm has been soaring as interest in fintech continues to grow, with investment bank JP Morgan signing its third fintech deal in a year in June.

On June 28, investment advisory Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating on SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) stock with a price target of $30. Sean Horgan, an analyst at the firm, told investors that it was a unique opportunity to buy the stock at the present price.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) debuted on the stock last month through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. The company has a market capitalization of over $12 billion, making it one of the most lucrative fintech firms in the US.

Just like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) is one of the stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting.

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: N/A

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG) is an online retailer based in California. It is ranked ninth on our list of 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. The companys shares have returned 547% to investors over the past twelve months. On July 6, after the online platform of the company displayed four hard-to-get NVIDIA units, the share price jumped more than 38%, largely driven by chatter around the topic on internet forums like Reddit. NVIDIA GPUs are hard to find these days amid a boom in crypto mining and gaming stocks.

On July 12, investment advice company Fintel identified Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG) stock as a notable short squeeze. The share price of the firm has soared by over 300% in the past seven days amid interest on Reddit forums.

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG) is also one of the most volatile on the market, with the share price rising and falling in tandem with interest on social platforms, with little in terms of business fundamentals guiding this process.

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG) is now a top stock on WallStreetBets, just like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS).

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: N/A

DiDi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) is a Chinese mobility technology platform. It is placed eighth on our list of 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. The company only recently debuted on the stock market in the United States. The firm raised more than $4.4 billion from the initial offering, fetching a valuation of close to $73 billion on a fully diluted basis. The company has since come under regulatory pressure from authorities in China that are cracking down on dual listed firms.

DiDi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI), often called the Uber of China, has not had a good week. On July 16, the Chinese government announced it was conducting cybersecurity reviews at the offices of the firm. However, Reddit mentions have helped the stock manage this bad news.

DiDi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) has also been hit by the removal of its app from stores in China, as the government pursues an antitrust investigation into the firm. The company has already clarified that revenue may take a hit because of the pressures.

Alongside Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), DiDi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) is among stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting.

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 2

Marin Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: MRIN) is ranked seventh on our list of 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. The companys shares have offered investors returns exceeding 505% over the course of the past year. The firm operates as a digital marketing agency. In earnings results for the first quarter, reported in May, the firm posted a quarterly revenue of around $6.3 million and earnings per share of -$0.45. The firm has a market capitalization of close to $100 million.

Marin Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: MRIN) stock has been soaring amid Reddit interest. On June 29, it surged 55% in a single day of trading after mentions on WallStreetBets. Earlier, on June 24, the stock surged 65% after the firm announced it was integrating the Instacart Ads into the Marine One platform.

At the end of the first quarter of 2021, 2 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $818,000 in Marin Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: MRIN), down from 3 in the previous quarter worth $1.1 million.

Marin Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: MRIN) is gaining traction on WallStreetBets, where stocks like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS) are already popular.

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 2

Carver Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARV) stock has offered investors returns exceeding 180% over the course of the past twelve months. It is placed sixth on our list of 10 stocks Reddit's WallStreetBets is now targeting. The firm provides banking services and is headquartered in New York. On July 9, the share price of the firm registered a 23% increase in a single day after mentions of the firm on StockTwits, a social media platform where investors and traders exchange ideas on the marketplace.

On July 8, news publication Bloomberg reported that Carver Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARV) was a short squeeze opportunity as the stock was soaring amid social media chatter and a high short-interest, revealing that short interest as a percentage of the equity float at the firm had increased to 76% from about 20% in May.

Out of the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based investment firm Two Sigma Advisors is a leading shareholder in Carver Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARV) with 27,769 shares worth around $225,000.

Carver Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARV) has become one of the favorite stocks of users on WallStreetBets, who already recommend Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA), Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE), and MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS).

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Bitcoin was trading for well over $60,000 in April, after making an astounding run from $11,000 in October. But after a tough first half of May, it's been at about $33,000 as the crypto buzz died down.

The cycles of bitcoins (BTC) popularity are a hallmark of the digital asset, so far at least, and despite its novelty, its old enough (12 years) for some patterns to have emerged.

Though theres no guarantee that what comes next wont be different, hedge fund veteran and co-founder of DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, pointed out an interesting pattern with bitcoin different from what we usually see in stocks.

Bitcoin is best bought when it's "boring" and best sold when it's "moving sharply higher and we feel like geniuses for owning/recommending it," wrote Colas.

It is the classic instead of yellin, you should be sellin trade, he added.

Colas recognizes the HODL crowd of believers and the fact that, for them, its been good (so far). But that even those hardy souls, however, might benefit from considering more auspicious times to lighten up or add to positions.

Using a continuum between "boring" and "spicy," Colas looked at the standard deviation of daily bitcoin prices over the past 100 days and found that buying when volatility is high didnt usually work out well. Buying when volatility was low, on the other hand, yielded better future returns. With the exception of four instances after huge rallies, buying when volatility is low and selling when it's high has worked out well.

"Its worth noting this pattern is exactly the opposite of what we see in equities," Colas added. "Also, as a stocks market cap increases it usually sees less volatility. Thats not the case with [bitcoin]."

Importantly, this analysis is more technical as well as psychological in how people react to the asset, and has nothing to do with fundamentals or investment theses. While this takeaway is useful, it has some obvious limitations: It cant tell you how long to hold necessarily after you buy or what an average return might be. Instead, its more of a directional indicator if you believe, as Colas does, that this pattern is common in digital currencies, you might heed his advice and sell when the volatility starts to creep up again.

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So what does that mean right now for bitcoins volatility should the pattern Colas observes continue? The trailing 100-day volatility is still greater than 3.0%, which means it's not quite boring enough to "create a sensible entry point for a trade or a longer term investment that doesn't yield stomach-churning near term volatility.

The good news from the historical record, Colas continued, is that this day will come.

Ethan Wolff-Mann is a writer at Yahoo Finance focusing on consumer issues, personal finance, retail, airlines, and more. Follow him on Twitter @ewolffmann.

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When to buy and sell bitcoin? Its exactly the opposite of stocks: DataTrek - Yahoo Finance

This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe

Friday, July 16, 2021

It's already been a strong year for the U.S. stock market.

Through Thursday's close, the S&P 500 (^GSPC)is up 16.1% year-to-date, while the Dow (^DJI)and Nasdaq (^IXIC) are both up more than 12%.

But index-level gains, of course, don't tell the full story of what's happening in the market, today or otherwise. As Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer told Yahoo Finance Live earlier this week, what we've seen underneath the surface of indexes hitting record highs is a rolling correction with factors, sectors, and styles moving in and out of favor.

"Most institutional investors...in general try to pick stocks and sectors," Dwyer told Yahoo Finance. "It's what they're paid to do. The frustration hasn't been the speed of the recovery in the markets, it's been the volatility in the sector rotation in the markets."

Dwyer added: "People that watch the markets, they pay attention to the S&P 500, they pay attention to NASDAQ, they're at new highs, it feels so exciting. But under the surface, most investors that I talk to, their guts are churning, which is why it's a summer of indigestion, because it's very hard to get a real theme, because of the rotation between growth and value under the surface."

Growth stocks, as measured by the Vanguard Growth Index ETF (VUG), have gained around 10% in the last two months, while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is down 1.5% over that period; the S&P 500 has gained about 4.5% in that time.

Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and Financials (XLF) have all underperformed the S&P 500 since June. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all within 5% of record highs.

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The rally we've seen in the bond market where the 10-year Treasury yield has gone from around 1.75% to under 1.3% on Thursday helps form the base for this current market environment. All else equal, lower rates suggest slower economic growth ahead; they also lead investors to favor faster growing sectors like technology over sectors more sensitive to the economic cycle, like financials and industrials.

This rotation within the market has also hit notable pockets of froth like SPACs, new issues, and the meme trade. Through Thursday's trading session, shares of AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME) were more than 40% below highs hit back in early June. Shares of the two companies have gained, of course, more than 1,400% and 700%, respectively, year-to-date. Recent new issues like Coinbase (COIN), Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Oatly (OTLY), and Didi (DIDI) have also traded unenthusiastically since going public.

But data from Bespoke Investment Group suggests that history is very much on the market's side this year. In years when the market acts this well in the first six months of the year, we tend to see further gains and limited downdrafts through the balance of the year.

In a report published Wednesday, Bespoke looked at the S&P 500's performance for each year since 1928, and pulled out the 10 years with year-to-date paths most correlated to 2021. In these similar years, the average gain for the S&P 500 through July 14 was 20.1%, with a median return of 18.8%.

"With this year's gain of 16.2%, the magnitude of the gains so far this year is relatively close to the median of the 10 prior years," Bespoke wrote.

"Looking ahead, the S&P 500's median rest-of-year performance in those 10 years was a gain of 7.1% with positive returns 70% of the time," the firm noted. "Compared to all years since 1928, the rest-of-year gain in these 10 years was considerably stronger than the median rest of year gain of 4.0% for all years since 1928."

In other words, during years in which the market has gone up with the force we've seen so far in 2021, the S&P 500 through the balance of the year tends to deliver stronger-than-normal returns as well.

Additionally, Bespoke notes that in only two of the 10 years most similar to 2021 has the second half featured a drawdown of more than 10%, with the median correction from highs only amounting to a 2.3% drop.

So not only do stocks continue grinding higher in this kind of environment, but they tend to do so with less-than-normal volatility. At least if you're buying the index.

By Myles Udland, reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland

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