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Do a read through of the disappointing earnings report out of FedEx on Tuesday night and you get the sense non-farm payrolls reports for the rest of 2021 may surprise economists to the downside.

The problem (one that may be getting worse, per FedEx)? Finding humans to accept jobs in a very tight labor market even at higher rates than what the specific job would have paid months ago.

"The impact of constrained labor markets remains the biggest issue facing our business as with many other companies around the world and was the key driver of our lower than expected results in the first quarter," FedEx COO Raj Subramaniam told analysts on an earnings call.

FedEx (FDX) said its quarterly results were drilled by $450 million due to labor shortages alone, notably at its ground segment. The company estimated a shocking 600,000 packages across the FedEx network are being rerouted because of the inability to find labor.

Those processing bottlenecks stand to wreak havoc on the holiday season if FedEx is unable to address the worker shortage, which increasingly appears unlikely.

To illustrate the point on its labor challenges, FedEx shared the current state of play at one of its facilities in Portland, Oregon.

A FedEx driver delivers a cart of packages, Thursday, May 6, 2021, in New York. FedEx is getting hurt by the tight job market. The package delivery company said Tuesday, Sept. 21 that its costs are up $450 million in the most recent quarter, as it paid higher wages as it got harder to find new workers and demand for shipping increased. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

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Explained Subramaniam, "Our Portland Oregon hub is running with approximately 65% of the staffing needed to handle its normal volume. This staffing shortage has a pronounced impact on the operations, which results in our teams diverting 25% of the volume that would normally flow through this hub because it simply cannot be processed efficiently to meet our service standards. And in this case the volume that diverted must be rerouted and process, which drives inefficiencies in our operations and in turn higher costs. These inefficiencies included adding Incremental linehaul and delivery routes, meaning more miles driven and higher use of third-party transportation to enable us to bypass Portland entirely. Now that's merely one example."

One example, that the Street is clearly concerned about, stands to morph into a litany of examples come the peak holiday-shipping season.

Shares of FedEx plunged 9% in Wednesday trading as investors digested the lackluster earnings day. Rival UPS also fell 2% in sympathy as traders braced for a similar warning from the company on its upcoming earnings day.

Not only did FedEx badly whiff on earnings estimates, but it slashed its full fiscal year profit outlook. FedEx now sees full-year earnings of $19.75 to $21 a share compared to $20.50 to $21.50. FedEx also warned that it's seeing a slowdown in e-commerce demand as people return to shopping at physical stores.

"While we were calibrated for higher ground expense from labor availability issues, the magnitude and related volume impact was greater than anticipated," said KeyBanc analyst Todd Fowler, who kept an Overweight rating (Buy rating equivalent) on FedEx shares.

The September employment report will be released on Oct. 8. If it disappoints, remember that FedEx telegraphed it in mid-September.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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FedEx just painted a disturbing picture of the job market - Yahoo Finance

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Tuesday, September 21, 2021

An ugly start to September, and the even uglier start to this weeks trading session, can be defined using two alliterative words that often unsettle investors.

Correction and contagion.

The first word relates to stocks that, as bulls are wont to remind us, usually go up. That has mostly been the case this year until Monday, that is, when Wall Street suffered its worst session in four months. The liquidity crisis sparked by Chinese property developer Evergrande has emboldened some analysts who think the market is long overdue for a correction (typically defined as a downturn of at least 5%-10%).

While the Evergrande situation is front and center, the reality is, stock market valuations are overstretched and the market has enjoyed too long of a break from volatility and Monday's stock market declines are not surprising, said David Bahnsen, CIO at wealth management firm The Bahnsen Group, with over $3 billion in assets under management.

It remains to be seen whether a correction is in the offing. Still, the word contagion bubbled up more than once on Monday, as Yahoo Finances Brian Sozzi explained. Ironically enough, the two themes are connected by a third that also starts with a c: namely China.

Evergrande's debt has swooned as its crisis has grown more acute.

Evergrande may or may not be the trigger event that bears have been waiting for. But it has amplified pervasive market jitters about the direction of the Chinese economy, and Beijings policy orientation.

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China has spent the better part of the summer throwing its weight around in various sectors of the economy, a stark reminder about its unapologetically authoritarian bent. And in a market with a short memory, Evergrande also reminds us that China is littered with economic landmines that have the potential to ricochet across the global economy.

The problems have been there for so long that most people watching the Chinese economy have just started ignoring them, China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. The major issue here is: Can the government contain the problems within the property sector?

Evergrande has over $300 billion in liabilities, but only $15 billion in cash on hand, raising worries that it cant make good on $84 billion of interest due next week, according to a report in Bloomberg. So is this the new Lehman Brothers, Wall Streets erstwhile investment titan that became synonymous with systemic risk?

Perhaps, but indications suggest were not there yet. Safe havens like gold, U.S. Treasury debt and the U.S. dollar are well-bid, but far from levels that would be associated with nervous investors seeking shelter from squalls buffeting world markets.

Although the impact from Evergrandes liquidity crisis is enormous, the good news is the fallout hasnt started to spillover to other markets, LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick wrote in a note on Monday.

Short-term funding markets are acting just fine in China thus far; remember, it was the money markets in the U.S. that first started to show cracks in the system in early 2008, well before the wheels fell off, Detrick added.

So, to summarize: Correction? Perhaps.

Contagion? Unlikely, but not entirely out of the question.

Yet day-by-day, the events unfolding in China are rattling investor confidence, injecting more uncertainty and volatility in a market that doesnt need any more of either. At a minimum, investing in China has become more complex, as analysts at Wasatch Global Investors wrote on Monday.

Arguments that China has abandoned capitalism might be a stretch, the firm wrote. However, besides evaluating a companys underlying fundamentals, investors must now weigh the extent to which the firms business aligns with the policy objectives of the Chinese government, it added.

By Javier E. David, editor at Yahoo Finance. Follow him at @Teflongeek

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This week's sell-off, brought to you by the letter 'C': Morning Brief - Yahoo Finance

This article originally appeared on Simply Wall St News.

NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is in the enviable position of supplying components to some of the fastest growing industries in the world - including gaming, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, visualization, and cryptocurrency mining. With a market value of $538 billion, it is the 11th most valuable company listed on US markets, and on the verge of overtaking TSMC ( NYSE:TSM ) as the most valuable semiconductor manufacturer in the world.

However, when a company is the size of Nvidia, it becomes more difficult to maintain the growth rates that got it to that size in the first place. Amongst the worlds mega-cap companies, Nvidia has one of the richest valuations, apart perhaps from Tesla ( Nasdaq:TSLA ).

Nvidia's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 74x is second only to Tesla amongst the 20 largest companies. And Nvidias price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 24x is the highest amongst this group of companies. These metrics suggest that Nvidia and Tesla have the most future growth priced into their valuations amongst mega cap stocks.

See our latest analysis for NVIDIA

NasdaqGS:NVDA Fair Value Estimate, September 23rd 2021

When we estimate Nvidias intrinsic value using analyst forecasts we arrive at a value of $107.75, implying the stock is overvalued by about 103%. This estimate is calculated using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity and you can see the full calculation here .

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Both of these can, and probably will change, over time - so the $107 value is just an estimate based on current forecasts.

Clearly the market believes Nvidia can grow faster than current forecasts suggest. One of the reasons for this is the metaverse, and Nvidias efforts to accelerate growth in the industries it supplies.

The metaverse is a virtual, 3D, digital world, or worlds. Currently, the metaverse is mostly confined to games like Fortnite and Minecraft. But in the future, the metaverse promises to be a place to work and play. It will see the full realization of the potential of virtual and augmented reality, and merge the real world with the internet.

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Creating the metaverse requires cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and virtual and augmented reality - the same industries and technologies that make up some of Nvidias key markets. Nvidias CEO Jensen Huang believes t he economy in the metaverse will be larger than the economy in the physical world , though he tends to use the term omniverse rather than metaverse.

A core part of Nvidias growth strategy is providing the tools to make this a reality. These efforts fall within the Nvidia Omniverse, a platform for real time collaboration and simulation.

There are countless applications where companies can use any combination of AR, VR, and AI to increase efficiency, reduce costs and collaborate. Applications for industries like animation, gaming, architecture and automotive design are obvious. But there are applications in countless other industries too.

To create the platform, Nvidia has partnered with a large number of other companies including Adobe, Autodesk, Blender, and Pixar. This means Nvidias Omniverse is helping the users of all these products to make the metaverse a reality, and thereby increasing the size of Nvidias market.

If Jensen Huangs prediction that the metaverse will be a bigger economy than the current physical economy comes anywhere close to being true, Nvidia will be one of its major suppliers, if not its largest supplier. This makes for a compelling investment case - but the metaverse is a long way from being a reality at scale, and stocks dont move in a straight line.

The semiconductor industry is also cyclical, and earnings tend to be lumpy. Add to that the fact that Nvidia is trading at a substantial premium, and theres potential for lots of volatility in the future.

We recently pointed out that trading by insiders suggested Nvidia may be nearing a peak. We may see lots of corrections of varying magnitudes in the future - this is the nature of companies that persistently trade at high valuations. Watching insider activity may be a good way to manage your own expectations. Insider activity and the ownership breakdown are included in our free analysis of Nvidia.

Simply Wall St analyst Richard Bowman and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Nvidias (NASDAQ:NVDA) Road Ahead May be Bumpy as the Company Plays the Long Game with Metaverse Strategy - Yahoo Finance

A legal fight in Los Angeles has exposed a bitter and widening divide between public servants like teachers, police officers and firefighters as COVID-19 vaccine mandates become increasingly common and first responders push back.

Earlier this month, more than 500 Los Angeles firefighters filed a lawsuit against the citys COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The suit is one of several challenges among police and EMS personnel across California and in other major cities, some of whom have threatened resignations in response to the new rules.

Jeff Burmeister, whos part of the nonprofit group Firefighters4Freedom Foundation, said he and his colleagues on the frontlines should be able to make the personal choice based off their constitutional right to privacy,'' whether or not they want the vaccine.

Our lawsuit is directly aimed at trying to repeal the mandate that all city workers, including firefighters receive the vaccine or be terminated, Burmeister, whos served as a firefighter paramedic for the Los Angeles City Fire Department for 16 years, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.

The city of Los Angeles approved an ordinance last month requiring city employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID by early October, unless they are approved for a specific religious or medical exemption.

Similar pressures are bubbling up in New York City, where medical professionals, teachers and police have sparred with City Hall over COVID-19 vaccination requirements. According to recent data, only 53% of NYPD workers are vaccinated.

But Kevin McBride, the L.A. firefighters attorney, argues that the local government doesnt have the power to intrude upon constitutional rights. The city can mandate when garbage is picked up, things that are administrative that don't impact people's individual constitutional rights, he told Yahoo Finance.

As of this week, 66% of the 3350 sworn Los Angeles Fire Department members have received at least one shot, according to the departments records.

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Of the LAFDs 3,712 employees, 1,079 have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began, 9 of them within the last two weeks.

McBride notes that his clients are seeking a middle ground with the city that could include submitting a COVID test regularly.

Our position in the legal case is reasonable accommodations that probably include some sort of testing and we're open to negotiating what that looks like he said. However, he insisted that none of my clients will ever walk off the job.

McBride added: These firefighters got into this business to protect the public. They're going to keep protecting the public as long as the city lets them.

A Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) firefighter receives a COVID-19 vaccine dose from firefighter Michael Perez at a fire station on January 29, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, six LAPD employees have filed a federal lawsuit challenging the citys vaccination requirement, claiming the mandate violates the employees constitutional rights to privacy and due process. The complaint also says that officials have threatened to lay off thousands of officers who refuse to get the jab.

We want them to be able to have a meaningful opportunity to request a religious accommodation, Kevin Snider, chief counsel at the Pacific Justice Institute, said in an interview. We want those that have contracted and recovered from coronavirus to be exempt from vaccination.

This lawsuit comes amid increasingly fraught debates over employer vaccination mandates across the country. The issue escalated after President Joe Biden announced a mandate for federal government workers, and requirements that private employers with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against the virus, or be tested weekly.

However, the LAPD suit, which was brought against the city, the police chief, and several other government officials, claims that weekly testing itself is highly intrusive.

Snider noted that his clients dont want nasal testing but they may be open to other non-intrusive methods.

It reflects a broader hesitancy among LAPD employees to get vaccinated against coronavirus, despite strong evidence that vaccines are safe and effective.

According to an internal memo sent to Mayor Eric Garcetti obtained by Yahoo Finance, more than 2,600 Los Angeles Police Department employees intend to seek religious exemptions, and over 360 plan to seek medical exemptions for the mandate requiring all city employees to get vaccinated.

The exemptions suggest a loophole in the system. Yet according to Snider, when you have a situation in one's life that is a bit of a crisis then one begins to do some soul searching and some deep thinking. And I think that is what is happening.

In L.A., non-exempt employees must be fully vaccinated by Oct. 19, and exemptions will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. Those who have exemptions must be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.

Recent data also shows just about half of the departments employees have not been vaccinated, which lags behind the general population, who have had at least one dose. Several sworn LAPD employees and three spouses of department personnel have died from complications of COVID since the pandemic began.

An LAPD representative did not immediately return Yahoo Finances request for comment. However, L.A. City Attorney Mike Feuer, expressed his belief that the citys position would prevail.

I'm confident about the outcome, Feuer told Yahoo Finance Live this week. I think it's essential that we continue to effectively persuade all members of the public, including our first responders, how important it is to get vaccinated to protect all of us.

Yet its unclear what will happen if employees refuse to get the jab, regardless of how the lawsuit fares.

We're going to see what happens. I will say I think it's just imperative that we rise to this occasion right now, Feuer added.

He declined to speculate if officers or firefighters would leave over the mandates, claiming it's premature. However, Feuer said he was optimistic that we're going to see the vast majority of our firefighters and police officers agree to comply with a law that is extremely likely to be upheld by courts in these losses.

Some first responders have argued that they have survived previous bouts of coronavirus, and as a result have natural antibodies from contracting the virus previously. Still, many medical experts advise vaccination even for those who have been infected.

There's no medical reason why people who have had prior infection should not be considered protected and allowed to have an exemption from workplace vaccination requirements, said Jeffrey Klausner, clinical professor of population and public health sciences at University of Southern Californias Keck School of Medicine.

He added: There's no strong evidence that people who get a shot after they've recovered actually have better immunity in terms of a lower risk of going to the hospital, going to an intensive care unit or dying.

Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @daniromerotv

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Vaccines: LA firefighters lawsuit is 'directly aimed at trying to repeal the mandate' - Yahoo Finance

Funding a Roth IRA through the backdoor has been a favorite move of aggressive savers in recent years.

But the benefit may be much less prevalent if Democrats pass their ambitious multitrillion-dollar budget reconciliation bill.

The backdoor Roth maneuver lets a high-income earners contribute money to a traditional IRA and then convert it into a Roth to skirt income limitations in the Roth program, but still take advantage of the tax benefits. Once the move is made and the relevant taxes are paid upfront the retirement account can grow and won't be subject to taxes again (earnings can grow tax-free, and qualified withdrawals are tax- and penalty-free).

[Cashay: Everything you need to know about IRAs]

The Democrats' plan, however, would scale back Roth conversions, and completely eliminate the ability for the richest Americans to convert traditional IRAs into Roth IRAs by 2032. Right now, individuals with an income above $140,000 are not permitted to make Roth IRA contributions directly. The change would mean that wealthier Americans individuals with a taxable income over $400,000 or couples filing jointly with taxable income over $450,000 wouldn't be able go through the backdoor to make a conversion.

A related maneuver called the mega backdoor Roth IRA would be eliminated even sooner. This move allows employees in certain retirement plans make an after-tax contribution to their 401(k) that they then roll into a tax-protected Roth. That move would be eliminated by 2022 and apply to everyone, regardless of income level.

A "backdoor" Roth IRA is a way for high-income taxpayers to fund a Roth, even if their incomes exceed the limits that allows for regular Roth contributions. (Getty Images)

Gordon Gray, director of fiscal policy at American Action Forum, a Washington think tank, notes that the drive to limit Roths is based on a few very visible cases of this in the news, but predicts the bill, if enacted, would raise only a little over $4 billion over the coming decade a drop in the bucket in the proposed $3.5 trillion package.

I think this is a little bit of policy chasing headlines, says Gray.

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The headlines in question surround a blockbuster ProPublica story published this summer that found billionaire Peter Thiel, a founder of PayPal (PYPL) and an early investor in Facebook (FB), was sitting on a Roth "individual retirement account" worth $5 billion.

Thiel and other ultra-wealthy Americans, the investigation found, have turned their Roths into supercharged investment vehicles subsidized by American taxpayers. They'll pay no taxes on the returns on their investments if they wait to access the money until they're 59 1/2.

IRAs have been in the political crosshairs before, notably in 2012 when then-presidential candidate Mitt Romney was reported to have a traditional SEP-IRA worth $102 million. While Thiel and Romney used a variety of tricks, the backdoor provisions were reportedly not a key way they amassed their IRA fortunes.

The people that do these types of [backdoor] strategies are not very, very wealthy, super high-income earners that are trying to skirt paying taxes that they owe," said Henry Yoshida, co-founder and CEO of a self-directed IRA company called Rocket Dollar. "Instead, they are very financially responsible people with actually more mid-tier incomes that live pretty well below their means.

Entrepreneur Peter Thiel participates in a discussion at the National Press Club on October 31, 2016 in Washington, DC. Thiel discussed his support for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Another change proposed by Democrats could target a future Peter Thiel more directly. The tax plan would ban IRAs from making certain types of investments, even if the account holder has a specific license to do so. According to a summary, the bill prohibits IRAs from holding investments which are offered to accredited investors because those investments are securities that have not been registered under federal securities laws.

According to the ProPublica investigation, Thiel achieved his eye-popping balance by purchasing his founders shares in PayPal through his Roth IRA during PayPals formation. It was an investment not available to the general public, and an example of one that would likely be disallowed under the Democrats' new rule.

Other changes in the plan dont address Roth accounts directly but are designed to bring in additional revenue from the wealthiest Americans and their retirement plans. One proposal would add a contribution limit for retirement plans of high-income earners with account balances over $10 million. Another would institute an increase in minimum required distributions for high-income earners with similarly large account balances.

Former U.S. Senator William Roth Jr. represented Delaware for decades and pushed provisions into the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 to create his namesake account type. A little over decade later, further changes allowed Roth conversions for anyone regardless of income level beginning in 2010.

Yoshida noted that in recent history Washington actually really loved Roth IRAs because they got tax revenue today from people that had the means and qualified to do so.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-MA), right ,is spearheading the Democrat's tax plan in the upcoming reconciliation package. (REUTERS/Joshua Roberts)

All of a sudden now, I think that they're maybe prematurely looking at eliminating [the provisions] based on a very extreme edge case, he said, adding that he doesn't think the provisions "are actually going to penalize the people that you're intending to penalize.

But in the end, Congressional observers like Gray expect the new Roth provisions to become law if Democrats are able to muscle the massive package through Congress.

The revenue raised by the new rules, however small, will help fund the rest of the bill.

I expect those will stay in, in part because it does raise money, said Gray, a former advisor to lawmakers including Sen. Rob Portman and Sen. John McCain. Because Democrats are going to want to hold onto as many of the offsets that they can, and given the visibility on some of these, they probably feel pretty strongly about being able to defend these changes, he said.

Ben Werschkul is a writer and producer for Yahoo Finance in Washington, DC.

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Democrats want to cut way back on those backdoor Roths - Yahoo Finance

During Thursday's latest Nintendo Direct event, acclaimed video game designer Miyamoto Shigeru announced that the company's upcoming feature length animation project in conjunction with American film studio, Illumination now has a firm North American theatrical release date of December 21st, 2022.

While release dates for Europe, Japan, and other markets have yet to be revealed, Miyamoto did share the studio's key character casting decisions. Chris Pratt will voice Mario. "He's so cool," Miyamoto commented. Anya Taylor-Joy, star of Netflix's hit series Queen's Gambit will portray Princess Peach while It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia star Charlie Day will voice Luigi. Jack Black will of course be the voice behind series villain, Bowser, while Keegan Michael-Key has been cast as Toad. And, for some reason, Seth Rogan will be in this too as Donkey Kong? The company is also bringing back long-time voice actor Charles Martinet who has portrayed Mario and the rest of his cohort in a number of games to date to fill in on various cameos throughout the film.

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Chris Pratt and Charlie Day headline the Mario Bros. movie in 2022 - Yahoo Tech

The full faith and credit of the U.S. government will be in jeopardy next month...ish.

The looming debt ceiling means that without an intervention by Congress the government wont be able to pay its bills soon. A default could be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. But what makes matters worse is that nobody is quite sure when the limit will actually be reached.

It's so hard to predict because technically the debt limit has already been passed. A limit of $28.5 trillion was reimposed Aug. 1, but the Treasury Department has been able to stave off a default through a process called extraordinary measures. What that essentially means is moving money around and being strategic on paying bills only as they are absolutely due.

The Treasury Department will have no means to pay Americas bills unless Congress acts.

On Friday, a fresh projection from the Bipartisan Policy Center found that we will hit the debt limit between Oct. 15 and Nov. 4.

Right now there is a little bit of a game of political chicken taking place, Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, recently told Yahoo Finance.

Here are all the recent predictions as to when the U.S. might default if the standoff in Congress continues.

Billions of dollars flow into the U.S. Treasury every day mostly in the form of tax revenues and billions more flow out to pay the governments bills. The exact timing of debt limits have been difficult to predict for decades because its just hard to keep track of all the money and know when it will arrive in U.S. coffers.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during an event at the U.S. Department of the Treasury in September. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Those in the prediction business have found things even more challenging this time around with the massive new government spending programs enacted to combat the effects of the coronavirus pandemic to take into consideration.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sounded the alarm last weekend in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, and warned of a debt default at some point next month. If Congress fails to act, she wrote, then sometime in Octoberit is impossible to predict precisely whenthe Treasury Departments cash balance will fall to an insufficient level, and the federal government will be unable to pay its bills.

Yellen added that a default would cut off vulnerable Americans from programs like Social Security as they confront the ongoing pandemic, and we would emerge from this crisis a permanently weaker nation.

The Bipartisan Policy Center tracks the debt limit X Date. This week's estimate of a likely default between Oct. 15 and Nov. 4 is a further refining of its estimate from two weeks ago, when the group estimated the date would fall between mid-October and mid-November.

No one can be certain of the X Date, but we know its coming within a matter of weeks, Shai Akabas, the centers director of economic policy, noted in a statement.

The group also released a new analysis Friday showing a complicated array of payments that Treasury is managing each day to stave off a default. Outside analysts are tracking these flows of money to arrive at their projections but "no onenot even the Treasury secretarycan know precisely when the X Date will arrive" the report notes.

The report laid out what payments from Social Security benefits to pandemic assistance would be missed if X date arrives and Treasury doesn't have the funds. The default could also cost millions of jobs in the economic upheaval that would likely follow a default.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., stands after finishing a brief statement to warn that Republicans will block the House-passed measure to keep the government funded and suspend the federal debt limit, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Independent research firm Wrightson ICAP tracks Treasury Department outlays closely, and in a recent commentary said the crunch date would likely be somewhere around Oct. 25 or 26. The firm thinks, absent Congressional action, there is a low probability the Treasury will be able to meet its obligations into November.

Finally, the Congressional Budget Office, the agency that provides financial information to Congress, estimates the debt limit to be reached sometime in October or November. Once the extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government will see delays of payments for government activities, a default on the governments debt obligations, or both.

Congress has never allowed a default before, but it's gotten close. In 2011, a stalemate over the debt limit was resolved in time but immediately afterwards, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, which reduced the rating from AAA to AA+.

Part of what makes the situation so maddening to observers in Washington and on Wall Street is that the debt limit has little to do with current spending debates and more to do with political brinkmanship. The question is whether the government will fulfill the payment obligations it agreed to in the past.

In her op-ed, Yellen noted the current debt limit situation is based on Trump-era spending. She said things would be the same right now even if the Biden administration hadnt authorized any additional new expenditures since January.

To solve the crisis, Democrats are trying to push a measure that would address a debt limit alongside another looming deadline a possible government shutdown at the end of this month.

The House of Representatives passed the measure and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a Senate vote on Sept. 27 at 5:30 pm ET. Republicans objected to the dual approach of the Democrats and vowed to block it.

If it is indeed stalled on Monday, lawmakers will need to scramble to address a government shutdown by the end of next week and the debt limit likely coming a few weeks after that.

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) speaks during a news conference on the debt ceiling at the U.S. Capitol on September 22, 2021 in Washington, DC. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other Senate Republicans say they will not vote to pass the continuing resolution that was recently voted on by the House of Representatives, which would fund the government for the new fiscal year and includes an increase to the debt ceiling. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Republicans have taken the position that the only approach to solve the debt limit issue is for Democrats to raise the ceiling using the budget reconciliation process, without any Republican votes.

In a joint statement about the plan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer noted that the proposal to include a suspension of the debt limit through December 2022 would provide an amount of time commensurate with the debt incurred as a result of passing last winters bipartisan $908 billion emergency COVID relief legislation which was supported by Republicans and signed into law by then-President Trump.

Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Tex.), the Ranking Member on the House Ways and Means committee, said in a recent Yahoo Finance interview that Democrats haven't had a conversation with us all year on any of these key issues, so our thinking is they must be wanting to go it alone. Brady sees no chance of Republican support unless Democrats bring forward a plan to curb spending going forward.

We need some guardrails that really returns us to normalcy, he said.

This article was updated on Sept. 24, 2021 to add information from the Bipartisan Policy Center's new analysis.

Ben Werschkul is a writer and producer for Yahoo Finance in Washington, DC.

Democrats want $273 billion in tax credits to achieve Bidens climate goals

Here are the key retirement provisions in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill

Social Security expert details the worst case' scenario and why millennials are most vulnerable

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4 projections for when we might actually hit the debt limit - Yahoo Finance

For many Americans, social security benefits are a major source of income after retirement. In 2021, an average of 65 million Americans will receive monthly social security benefit checks totaling over $1 trillion paid during the year, according to the Social Security Administration.

fstop123 / Getty Images

See: How Does Social Security Get Calculated?Find: 5 Social Security Benefits You Can Claim Online

While the average retiree receives $1,557 per month in benefits, the maximum you can receive per month is $3,895, as GOBankingRates previously reported. However, how much you receive depends on numerous factors.

How long have you worked? The Social Security Administration calculates your benefit amount by taking an average of your earned wages over the 35 highest-earning years of your career adjusting for inflation over the years.

Think means youll need to have worked at least 35 years during your life, GOBankingRates reported, and times you werent working will result in a lower average and less money.

To be eligible for maximum benefits, you must have consistently had earnings that have equaled or exceeded the SSAs maximum taxable earnings limit throughout your career. For 2021, the maximum limit is $142,800 per year, although the amount changes yearly to account for cost-of-living adjustments.

Even if you dont consistently earn the maximum limit, noted that you can still boost your benefit amount by increasing your income.

Another important factor is when you plan to file for benefits. While you can file for social security benefits as early as age 62, waiting longer can earn you more money. If you wait until the age of 70, you are more likely to receive more benefits. You could potentially collect hundreds of dollars more per month if you wait until at least 70.

See: 5 Social Security Benefits You Can Claim OnlineFind: Next Years Social Security Checks Could Get Biggest COLA Bump in 13 Years

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However, even if you were on track for maximum benefits eligibility, by filing at the age of 62, you would only receive $2,324 per month. Waiting those 8 years makes a big difference.

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Social Security Eligibility: What It Takes to Receive Max Monthly $3,895 - Yahoo Finance

If history is any guide, then investors shouldn't sell all their stocks and move into cash and gold amid fear of another government shutdown.

"History shows that U.S. government shutdowns generally have not meaningfully impacted equity returns," points out David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, in new research. Kostin crunched the numbers, and they support his view.

The S&P 500 posted median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution in the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, Kostin said. One exception, however, was the most recent very contentious government shutdown in December 2018. The S&P 500 dropped 2% on the day spending authority expired, Kostin notes.

In all but three times going back to 1980, the S&P 500 generated positive returns during the government shutdown period.

Most sectors in the S&P 500 have held up surprisingly well amidst shutdowns, Goldman's research shows. The energy sectors has tended to fare the worst, while consumer discretionary has performed the best.

Stocks have done OK during prior government shutdowns, Goldman Sachs' research shows.

Goldman isn't on board though with investors completely ignoring the risks to stocks over a potential looming shutdown.

"Our political economist has ascribed increasing risk to the upcoming debt limit and sees parallels to the experiences in 2011 and 2013. The S&P 500 fell in 2011 but rallied throughout the 2013 debt limit experience. 2011 was plagued by the European debt crisis, S&Ps downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt, and declining economic growth. In contrast, the macro environment was more favorable in 2013," Kostin warns.

To be sure, the debate around the debt ceiling and any would-be shutdown is nearing a head.

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On Tuesday, the Democrat-led House passed a short-term government funding bill that maintains funding through Dec. 3. It also includes a provision to suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.

But, the bill is likely to die on the floor of the Republican-controlled Senate, despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning of "catastrophe" if the debt ceiling debate isn't settled.

"The U.S. has never defaulted. Not once. Doing so would likely precipitate a historic financial crisis that would compound the damage of the continuing public health emergency. Default could trigger a spike in interest rates, a steep drop in stock prices and other financial turmoil. Our current economic recovery would reverse into recession, with billions of dollars of growth and millions of jobs lost," Yellen said in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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(Bloomberg) -- When researchers flew over an Energy Transfer LP facility in the Permian Basin of West Texas two months ago, a NASA-designed sensor on their airplane detected a colossal plume of methane pouring into the air.

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Over the next two weeks, they returned twice and found large amounts of the powerful greenhouse gas each time. It was just one of many persistent methane emitters discovered by an aerial survey conducted by the Environmental Defense Fund over the largest U.S. oil field in July and August.

The invisible leak was later calculated at more than a ton per hour, with a short-term impact on the atmosphere equivalent to about 47,000 idling cars.

Halting methane leaks has become one of the most important fronts in the fight against climate change, and companies across the U.S. energy industry have been pledging to curb their emissions of the gas. But the study released Thursday shows a shocking amount of pollution continues.

Methane is the chief component of natural gas and packs more than 80 times the planet-warming power of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. It often escapes undetected by companies that produce and transport natural gas, and in some cases methane is intentionally vented to prevent equipment failure.

The results of the flyovers dont appear to show much progress compared to a similar survey conducted in 2019, said David Lyon, a senior scientist at EDF. Emissions are still very high, so theres still a lot of opportunities for companies to reduce.

EDF found emissions at a total of 533 different locations, including 149 persistent ones, where plumes were spotted in the same place on at least two different days. Energy Transfer and Targa Resources Corp., both Texas-based pipeline operators, were among those with the highest numbers of persistent sources at 11 and 16, respectively.

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In all, emissions from persistent locations made up about 45% of all methane EDF detected over the course of the survey. EOG Resources Inc. had the highest number of persistent locations among oil and gas producers, with eight sites that had a plume on more than one day during the survey.

An Energy Transfer spokeswoman said she couldnt speak to the accuracy of the survey data. The company complies with an air permit in place at the compressor station found emitting methane and regularly monitors the facility for emissions, she said.

A representative for EOG said the company believes its methane-emissions performance in the Permian compares favorably against others in the industry and that it would review the data for accuracy. Targa didnt respond to a request for comment.

The EDF survey used an airplane operated by Carbon Mapper, a nonprofit that partners with NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Its able to see only the largest plumes of gas, sometimes referred to as super-emitters.

The best way for companies to eliminate these super-emitters is to perform their own regular inspections, Lyon said. Some companies conduct their own aerial surveys to hunt for leaks, while others use stationary monitors at their sites.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rules require companies to inspect oil and gas wells regularly for leaks, but those rules apply only to new facilities. The agency is currently drafting rules that would apply to older facilities, but it hasnt yet said whether those rules would extend to low-producing oil and gas wells. Many industry groups oppose methane regulations on low producers, arguing that inspection costs could make these wells uneconomic.

EDF said its findings bolster the case for including low-producing wells, which made up about one-tenth of the emissions sources it identified.

When it comes to cracking down on methane emissions, oil and gas industry groups said this month that they actually favor direct regulation over a proposed fee that Democrats have introduced as a way to pay for their $3.5 trillion spending plan. A coalition of trade groups and local chambers of commerce called the measure punitive and said taxing methane emissions from oil and gas facilities would threaten Americans access to cheap energy.

Any impact from such a fee on drillers bottom line would depend heavily on how methane emissions are measured, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a note to clients this week. Thats because methane estimates based on satellite images and aerial surveys tend to show far higher counts than what companies self-report to U.S. regulators.

(Updates to include comment from EOG in the 10th paragraph)

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Worlds Top Shale Oil Field Is Still Spewing Methane by the Ton - Yahoo Finance