Category Archives: Ukraine

[1/2] Smoke erupts following a shell explosion, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine in this screengrab obtained from a handout video released on May 7, 2023. Adam Tactic... Read more

KYIV, May 12 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces have advanced by about 2 km around the eastern city of Bakhmut this week and have not given up any positions there in that time, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Friday.

But she appeared to play down suggestions that Ukraine had already started a much-anticipated counteroffensive, and urged Ukrainians to disregard what she described as Russian disinformation about the situation in and around Bakhmut.

Some Russian military bloggers reported on Thursday that Ukrainian troops had broken through parts of the front line. Moscow denied the reports and said the situation was under control after 10 months of fierce fighting for Bakhmut.

"How does the enemy cover the battles in Bakhmut? (It) praises itself, talks about supposed success and invents stories about our military command," Maliar wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

"At the same time, the enemy gives false information about the lack of weapons, which probably aims to justify the real situation."

Describing what she called "the real situation" over the past week, she said "the enemy failed to carry out its plans; the enemy suffered great losses of manpower; our defenders advanced 2 km (1.2 miles) in the Bakhmut sector; we did not lose a single position in Bakhmut this week."

Moscow sees Bakhmut as a stepping stone to attacking other Ukrainian cities. Kyiv has said that maintaining the defence of Bakhmut allows Ukraine's military to prepare an expected counteroffensive.

In a separate Telegram post, Maliar later said that Russian attacks were being met by defensive operations and counterattacks, suggesting such moves should not be considered part of any major Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"This situation has actually been going on in the east for several months," she wrote. "That's it! Nothing more is happening."

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview with European broadcasters published on Thursday that the counteroffensive had yet to start.

Reuters was unable to verify the situation on the battlefield.

Reporting by Dan Peleschuk, Editing by Timothy Heritage

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ukraine plays down talk of Bakhmut gains being start of counteroffensive - Reuters

European Union

Josep Borrell says relations will worsen if Xi Jinping does not push Putin to withdraw from Ukraine

Fri 12 May 2023 10.03 EDT

A Russian defeat in Ukraine will not derail Chinas rise, while relations between Beijing and the EU will be critically affected if Xi Jinping does not push Vladimir Putin to withdraw his forces, European ministers have been told.

The message comes in a paper drawn up by the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, who is meeting the EUs 27 foreign ministers on Friday in Stockholm to discuss how the bloc should recalibrate its policy towards Beijing.

Along with the war in Ukraine, relations with China have become Europes most pressing foreign policy issue, but EU politicians take different approaches on how to respond to an increasingly repressive and nationalistic Beijing revealed in the furore over Emmanuel Macrons comments about not being drawn into a US-China clash over Taiwan.

In a letter to ministers to accompany the paper, Borrell highlights at least three reasons to adjust the EUs approach: Chinas internal changes with nationalism and ideology on the rise; the hardening of US-China competition in all areas and Chinas status as a key regional and global player.

As EU talks got underway, Beijing announced it would send a special envoy to Ukraine, Russia and other European countries next week. Chinas special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will lead a delegation to Ukraine, becoming the most senior Chinese diplomat to visit the country since the full-scale invasion of 2022. He will also visit Poland, France, Germany and Russia to communicate with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, according to a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.

The choice of Li, however, raises questions about Chinas claims to be a neutral player. Li served as ambassador to Moscow for a decade until 2019 and was awarded an Order of Friendship medal by Putin.

European tensions with China have intensified since the Chinese and Russian leaders declared a no-limits partnership a few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine.

China is siding clearly with Russia, states the paper seen by the Guardian, which describes Chinas purported peace plan in Ukraine as a collection of Chinas well-known positions on the matter that confirms its firmly pro-Russian stance.

In his letter to ministers Borrell makes clear the EU sees Moscow as the junior partner to Beijing: The China issue is much more complex than the Russia issue [because] unlike Russia, China is a real systemic actor.

While arguing for a clear-eyed approach, Borrell also writes that the EU must engage with China and the US to reduce tensions over the Taiwan Strait. That strikes a different note to Macron, who warned against Europe getting caught up in crises that are not ours.

In carefully calibrated words, the EU paper warns against being drawn into zero-sum thinking. Coordination with the United States will remain essential. However, the EU should not subscribe to an idea of a zero-sum game whereby there can only be one winner, in a binary contest between the US and China.

Meanwhile EU diplomats are holding separate talks in Brussels on whether seven Chinese companies should face sanctions for helping Russia evade western import bans. The potential move is part of a wider aim to clamp down on countries, such as those in central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East, deemed to be helping Moscow dodge western sanctions.

While the goal of stopping non-EU countries from aiding Russia commands widespread EU support, several member states are uneasy about targeting China. Germany is wary of listing Chinese companies, while Berlin, Paris and Rome are unhappy with the way the European Commission made a proposal without consulting member states before details leaked to the press.

EU member states think they should be in the driving seat of determining which foreign businesses to target, rather than the EU executive in Brussels: We are worried they [the commission] will do it badly and antagonise a lot of countries, one senior diplomat said.

The source added that probably the case is good for listing the Chinese companies, a symbolic move that would freeze European assets and discourage western lenders, but added: We need to improve the way we share information and intelligence.

The latest China paper largely reflects a hawkish speech by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in March, where she called for reducing dependency on Chinese raw materials and green technology, as part of a wider de-risking of relations.

But the EU is also cautious about damaging routine trade with China with total goods trade worth 1.9bn (1.68bn) a day. Von der Leyen and Borrell argue against decoupling from China, a middle ground versus the more confrontational approach they perceive from the US.

The EU defined China in 2019 as a partner, economic competitor and systemic rival. Borrell wrote that it was obvious in recent years that the rivalry aspect had become more important.

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EU tells ministers they must recalibrate China policy over support for Russia - The Guardian

12 May 2023, 15:39

As Eurovision fever hits the UK, musicians across the country are celebrating the arrival of the annual European song contest in time for the final this weekend.

Earlier this week, the English National Opera performed a medley of Eurovision tunes in Liverpool city centre for visiting fans, and on the eve of the contest final, the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra hosted a concert of fan favourites.

But one of the best celebrations weve seen of the arrival of the competition in the UK for the first time since 1998, is this cover of last years Eurovision winner Stefania.

Performed by over 500 children and young refugees from the London Borough of Newham, their multi-instrumental take on the song by Ukraines Kalush Orchestra is inspired by this years Eurovision theme: United by Music.

Watch the emotive and impressive rendition below...

Read more: Eurovision winner, Kalush Orchestra, brings traditional Ukrainian woodwind into the 21st century

Newham Music in East London is an independent charity that brings music to over 21,000 children and young people annually.

The multi-award-winning Music Education Hub works with schools, community centres and local cultural organisations to deliver the transformational effects of music in their part of East London.

On discovering that the UK would be hosting Eurovision 2023 on behalf of last year's winners, Ukraine, Newham Music told Classic FM that they immediately knew they had to cover Stefania, thewinning song from last years competition.

The charity told Classic FM, Given that many Ukrainianrefugees now call Newham their home, and bearing in mind this years Eurovision theme of United By Music, this song felt like agenuineopportunity to welcome and connect with ouryoung people through music.

Read more: What is the Eurovision opening music and how long has Te Deum featured in the song contest?

The charity continued, We shared learning resources on our website that could be adapted to any instrument, voice or ability so that as many schools and young people could get involved. Over 500 young musicians from ages 6-18 are featured in the video and they were all so inspired to take part.

Clive Clifford-Frith, the teacher who led the musical project shared with Classic FM, Our Ukrainian students lit up when everyone learnt this song.

When they met the videos Ukrainian director, Alina Shaposhnyk, and she spoke to them in their mother tongue in the classroom it was overwhelmingly emotional!

We loved making this video, Clifford-Frith said. And living this years Eurovision theme: United by Music!

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United in Music: Over 500 young musicians perform Ukraines winning Eurovision entry - Classic FM

Ukraine

At critical point in war, Ukraine could press or appear to press in multiple locations to try to push Russians back

Fri 12 May 2023 09.00 EDT

After 15 months of fighting, the war in Ukraine is heading towards its most critical point. Kyiv has assembled a force 12 brigades and perhaps 60,000 troops strong, if leaked Pentagon papers are to be believed equipped largely with Nato-standard tanks, armour and artillery, and trained in part in the west.

At the same time, Russias winter offensive is over and it has failed. The campaign to gain ground along the eastern front from Kreminna in the north, to capture Bakhmut in the centre and Vuhledar in the south is faltering, the culminating point often considered by militaries as the optimum point for a counterattack.

Now Ukraine has to demonstrate, given the western weapons it has received, that is has a path to a military victory, that it can push back the Russian invaders. But the question is: where could it attack?

Ukraines advantage, says Ed Arnold, a research fellow at Rusi, the defence thinktank, is that it has choices of where the counterattack could take place. The hallmark of a good strategy is that it creates options, he said, and it may even be that Ukraine will press or appear to press in a number of locations to try to inflict a serious defeat.

The most obvious point for a Ukrainian attack is to strike from the Zaporizhzhia sector south and south-west towards Melitopol, or possibly south-east towards Berdiansk. The ultimate goal is to cut the road supply links that run close to the coast, but maps of Russian fortifications, based on satellite imagery, show a relatively dense double line of trenches and positions surrounding the key city of Tokmak.

The goal is ultimately to render Russias long occupation of Crimea untenable, which could be achieved if the Kerch Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russia proper, can be blown again perhaps with the help of newly acquired Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles that could also strike at the key logistics hub of Dzhankoi. But Ukraine knows Russia will fight hard for Crimea, even from a distance, so there may well be advantages to attacking elsewhere.

A riskier strategy would be to try to launch an amphibious operation across the Dnipro River farther west, where there are fewer but still plenty of fortifications. Britain expanded its programme of training for Ukrainian soldiers in February to encompass marines, and there have been some reports of marines battling to establish bridgeheads in the islands of the Dnipro delta, west of Oleshky.

A significant attack would be high risk, high reward, says Arnold, and he argues it is not obvious that Ukraine needs to try something so risky at this point. It is also unclear whether progress across the delta would be straightforward for a significant attacking force. The area is one of the least reported from in the war, making understanding what is happening in the area difficult.

An alternative to an attack aimed at cutting off Crimea would be to strike into the lightly populated northern Luhansk, aimed at cutting off Russian supply lines that tend to run north-south through Svatove on the frontline and Starobilsk beyond to the east, and in turn threatening Russian-held positions farther south.

The area is less likely to be as well defended, and the aspiration would to achieve a repeat of the September Kharkiv offensive where Ukraine exploited a lightly defended area of the Russian lines farther west, and forced a chaotic retreat on Moscows forces who were at risk of being outflanked at points during the speedy advance.

Critical here for Ukraine would be to achieve an element of surprise, and, Arnold says, having the intelligence to identify a Russian weak spot. An attack in this area could work opportunistically, if the Russians over-defend in the south, while threatening it could force Moscow to move some troops 200 miles or so north-east.

Six weeks ago, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Russias land forces, appeared to suggest that Ukraine could strike back in Bakhmut, a previously unimportant Donbas city that has become the scene of the fiercest fighting in the war.

At the time, the idea looked unlikely, but finally in recent days Ukraine has launched some limited counterattacks just north of Bakhmut, and again eight miles (14km) to the south-west. Their tentative success suggests Ukraine could try to encircle the battered city, threatening exhausted Russian forces that have only just captured most of it.

The disadvantage is that for all the symbolic value that would be gained from regaining the lost majority of Bakhmut, the Donbas area is less strategically significant. Cutting into Russian lines in the east does not threaten Crimea and any effort to capture the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, occupied since 2014, would be fraught, not least given the difficulty of urban warfare.

Where an attack in the east could help is if it fixes the Russians in the area, Arnold says, meaning it forces Moscow to allocate troops to the eastern front, so giving Ukraine greater opportunity in the south. Probing attacks in Bakhmut could be a prelude to an offensive elsewhere.

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Ukraine has choice of targets as it plots counteroffensive - The Guardian

[1/3] A firefighter works at a site of a residential house destroyed by a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the village of Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine May 11,... Read more

May 11 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry on Thursday denied reports that Ukrainian forces had broken through in various places along the front lines and said the military situation was under control.

Moscow reacted after Russian military bloggers, writing on the Telegram messaging app, reported what they said were Ukrainian advances north and south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with some suggesting a long-awaited counteroffensive by pro-Kyiv forces had started.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had earlier said the offensive had yet to start.

"Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about 'defence breakthroughs' that took place in different areas along the line of military contact do not correspond to reality," the Russian defence ministry said in a Telegram post.

"The overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control," it said in a statement, using the Kremlin's description of the war in Ukraine.

The fact the Russian ministry felt obliged to release the statement reflects what Moscow acknowledges is a "very difficult" military operation.

Ukraine says it has pushed Russian forces back over the past several days near Bakhmut, while a full-blown counteroffensive involving tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of Western tanks is still being prepared.

"We still need a bit more time," Zelenskiy said in an interview with European broadcasters.

Reuters was not able to verify the reports and it was unclear whether Ukrainian forces were attacking in force or just mounting armed reconnaissance raids.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko said Kyiv's backers understand that a counteroffensive "may not result in the complete eviction of Russian troops and the definitive defeat of Russia in all occupied areas."

"We have to be ready for the war to continue into next year - or it could end this year," Musiyenko told Ukrainian NV Radio. "It all depends on how the battles develop. We can't guarantee how the counter-offensive will develop."

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia's Wagner private army which has led the fight in Bakhmut, on Thursday said Ukrainian operations were "unfortunately, partially successful". He called Zelenskiy's assertion that the counteroffensive had not yet begun "deceptive".

Ukrainian forces had already received enough equipment from Western allies for their campaign but were waiting for the full complement of armoured vehicles to arrive, Zelenskiy said.

In a major step up in Western military support for Ukraine, Britain said it was sending Storm Shadow cruise missiles that would give Kyiv the ability to strike deep behind Russian lines.

The missiles "are now going into, or are in, the country itself," Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told parliament in London, adding the missiles were being supplied so they could be used within Ukraine.

Western countries including the U.S. had previously held back from providing long range weapons for fear of provoking Russian retaliation. Wallace said Britain had weighed the risk.

The Kremlin earlier said if Britain provided these missiles it would require "an adequate response from our military".

In an evening address on Thursday, Zelenskiy said he would soon be able to report very important defence-related news.

"Foreign flags will never reign on our land, and our people will never be enslaved," he said.

The war in Ukraine is at a turning point, with Kyiv poised to unleash its counteroffensive after six months of keeping its forces on the defensive, while Russia mounted a huge winter offensive that failed to capture significant territory.

Moscow's main target for months has been Bakhmut, which it has yet to fully capture despite the bloodiest ground combat in Europe since World War Two.

There are no signs of peace talks between the two countries to end the war, which began in February 2022 with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Zelenskiy is expected to meet Pope Francis in the Vatican on Saturday, diplomatic sources said, days after the pope said the Vatican was involved in a peace mission. The pope has given no further information on such an initiative.

The war worsened a global food crisis - Ukraine and Russia are major agricultural exporters - and while an agreement last July safely reopened some Black Sea grain shipment channels, negotiations to extend the deal were difficult.

Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations discussed on Thursday U.N. proposals to keep the pact alive. Moscow has threatened to quit on May 18 over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.

Meanwhile in South Africa, an important Russian ally on a continent divided by the war, the U.S. ambassador told journalists that Washington was confident a Russian vessel had loaded weapons and ammunition from South Africa in December, a possible breach of Pretoria's declared neutrality in the conflict.

The government is opening an independent inquiry led by a retired judge into the allegation, the office of President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a statement. No evidence had yet been provided by Washington to support its allegation, the president's office said.

Washington has repeatedly warned countries against providing material support to Russia, saying that those who do may be subject to economic sanctions similar to those imposed on Moscow.

Reporting by Tom Balmforth, Olena Harmash, Pavel Polityuk, David Ljunggren and Ron Popeski;Editing by Peter Graff, Alex Richardson, David Gregorio and Diane Craft

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Continued here:

Russia denies reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs along front lines - Reuters

10 May 2023

Image source, BBC/Lee Durant

Ukrainian forces are preparing for a counteroffensive near the besieged city of Bakhmut

In a bunker just outside the city limits of Bakhmut, Ukraine's 77th Brigade direct artillery fire to support their infantry - their last line of defence on the western edge of the city.

Ukraine is still clinging to the last few streets here.

But the live video feed the artillery gunners watch intently, from a drone flying above the city, suggests that even if Russia can finally wrestle control, it would be little more than a pyrrhic victory.

The prize is now a crumpled, skeletal city - with hardly a building left unscathed, and with its entire population vanished.

The battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has been the longest and bloodiest of this war so far. Western officials estimate between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded here, while Ukraine's military has also paid a heavy price - and it still isn't over.

The plumes of smoke still hang heavy over the besieged city, accompanied by the relentless rumble of artillery fire.

Russia has been trying to capture Bakhmut for months, and it's been a testament - so far - to Ukraine's determination not to give ground. But it's also a reminder that its coming counteroffensive could prove far more challenging.

Image source, BBC/Lee Durant

Drone footage from above Bakhmut shows the devastation caused by the continuing battle for the city

Back in the bunker, Ukraine's 77th Brigade orders another artillery strike on a house. Seconds later a plume of smoke rises from the rubble. Two men emerge from the smoke, stumbling down a street. One appears to be injured.

I ask if they're Wagner soldiers - the Russian paramilitary force which has been leading the assault. "Yes," replies Myroslav, one of the Ukrainian troops staring at the screen.

"They are fighting quite well, but they don't really care about their people," he says.

He adds that they don't seem to have much artillery support and they just advance in the hope that they'll be "luckier than the last time". His comrade, Mykola, interjects: "They just walk towards us, they must be on drugs."

Looking at this shell of a city it's hard to understand why either side has sacrificed so many lives for it.

Mykola admits that the defence has also been costly for Ukraine. He says many soldiers have given their lives, and it's hard to fight in the densely packed streets. He says they've been replaced by troops with less experience, but adds: "They will become the same warriors as those who fought before them."

To the south of the city, Ukraine's 28th Brigade has been helping prevent Bakhmut from being encircled.

The Wagner forces they once faced have already been replaced by paratroopers of Russia's VDV, or airborne forces. But they're still locked in daily skirmishes.

During a lull in the fighting, Yevhen, a 29-year-old soldier, takes us on a tour of their defensive position in a small wood.

The arrival of spring has provided them with some leaves for cover, but many of the trees have been stripped by the constant shelling.

Image source, BBC/Lee Durant

Ukrainian troops seek cover behind bushes on the outskirts of the city of Bakhmut

As we run from a trench, across exposed ground pock-marked by shell holes, the Russians open fire with their mortars. "That was pretty damn close," says Yevhen in perfect English as we reach some cover.

As we move to another position he says: "Now we're going to fire back."

Minutes later his men follow up with a volley of small arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). There are no casualties this time. But hours after we leave one of their soldiers is seriously injured.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Bakhmut "a fortress" of Ukrainian morale. Yevhen displays that determination not to give up. "The whole point of Bakhmut is to keep the enemy there," he says.

If Ukraine gave up Bakhmut, he says, they'd only lose more lives later. "We could retreat to save a few lives, but we would then have to counter-attack and we'd lose even more".

Ukraine's hope is that the fight over Bakhmut has blunted Russia's ability to conduct its own offensive operations, and exhausted its army and supplies.

Image source, BBC/Lee Durant

In a bunker just outside the city limits, Ukraine's 77th Brigade direct artillery fire to support their infantry

But Russia has also been preparing to stymie Ukraine's upcoming offensive.

Recent satellite images of the occupied south show it has built hundreds of miles of deep trench lines and dragon's teeth tank traps to slow down any attempted advance. More difficult to punch through than the razor wire and mines we saw in front of these Ukrainian positions.

Southern Ukraine is where many expect the focus of the Ukrainian offensive to be. Russia has already ordered a partial evacuation near the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine, too, has been rationing artillery rounds in preparation for an attack that will be spearheaded by newly trained brigades of troops and some of the 1,300 armoured vehicles and 230 tanks supplied by the West. Though we have also witnessed convoys of Western military equipment heading East.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has tried to dampen down expectations - warning against "overestimating" the outcome.

I ask Yevhen if he feels that pressure too. He says he knows it won't be easy, but adds: "We've already changed the whole world's opinion of the Ukrainian army and we still have lots of surprises."

But this time it may prove harder to conceal the element of surprise.

More:

Ukraine war: Inside the fight for the last streets of Bakhmut - BBC

History books

The Harvard academic on writing while grieving and where his country goes from here

Fri 12 May 2023 05.00 EDT

Before my first reporting trip to Ukraine, one of my seasoned war correspondent colleagues had two pieces of advice. First, not to miss the delicious coffee and pastries you can find in Kyiv (which is a wonderfully reassuring thing to hear as you head off towards a conflict). Second, that it was absolutely necessary to read Serhii Plokhys 2015 book The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. I did, and it unwound 2,500 years of complex, fascinating and often tragic events, all the way from Herodotuss accounts of the ancient Scythians to the Maidan protests in Kyiv a decade ago. Now Plokhy and I are speaking by Zoom me from London, he from his home near Harvard, where he is professor of Ukrainian history. Hes in his study. There are globes on every surface, and antique maps of Ukraine hang on the walls.

Plokhy, 65, is a genial presence calm, expansive, gently humorous, not given to grandstanding exactly how you might imagine and want a history professor to be. However, his latest project is anything but conventional historiography. He begins The Russo-Ukrainian War, his new book, by recalling the moment he picked up his phone and checked his emails, early on 24 February last year. He was in Vienna. One email from a Harvard colleague, with whom hed been discussing the prospect of an all-out invasion, hoped he was OK. I was not OK, he writes. Aside from anything, his sister and her family were in Zaporizhzhia, the south-eastern city where hed grown up. By the time he called her, she could already hear the pounding of Russian artillery. He describes how he dressed carefully, that first morning, putting on a shirt and a blazer for a visit to some archives to show that I was collected and prepared to carry out my duties, whatever they might be. The book ends with an afterword that pays heartbreaking tribute to his cousin, killed in October near Bakhmut.

History is normally written from the calm, distant purview that a scholar attains when chaotic events have resolved themselves into some recognisable shape or pattern. It is not usually interrupted by grief for a family member killed as a result of those still-unfolding events. At first, he says, he resisted the idea of a book about the invasion, produced during the invasion. To write such a volume would be to go against the basic principles of the profession. Our wisdom as historians comes from the fact that we already know how things turned out, he says.

But soon he began to change his mind. History, after all, is a weapon in this conflict. Vladimir Putins justification for his aggression towards Ukraine is rooted in his (twisted and faulty) understanding of the past. He even wrote a sprawling, inaccurate essay laying out his views in 2021, titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. Plokhy began to feel compelled to fight the Russian presidents terrible history writing with good, solid history writing of his own.

I found myself in the same situation as a lot of Ukrainians, he says. After the shock passes, you ask yourself: OK: how can I help? And actually a sense of being involved helps you to survive emotionally. Then you think about the kind of help you can offer. You think about [rock musician] Slava Vakarchuk who goes and sings to the troops. You think of the guy who goes to the army recruitment office, takes a rifle and goes for training. You think of the person who buys used cars in the European Union and brings them to the frontline. These people are all part of the war effort. And I felt I could be part of it by utilising the skills that I have as a historian. I wonder how on earth he has managed to be the dispassionate scholar amid the intense, personal turbulence that the Russian invasion of his country has brought. Because he has had to be, he says. Being a good historian requires me to control my emotions, otherwise I would not be doing my job according to the standard of the field and I would not fight back as effectively as I could, he says.

As soon as Ukraine survived the initial assault, Plokhy knew exactly how to approach the new book: As a historian, I knew the answers. I mean: I cant tell you and I dont say in the book what will happen tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. But the frame that Im using is to look at this as one of many wars of the disintegration of empire, and from the perspective that the great powers have lost every single war that they have been fighting since 1945, from Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan.

So has Russia essentially already lost? Is the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a convulsion of a dying empire? Yes, exactly, he says. We just dont know how long it will go on, and what the price will be. Death throes, he points out, can go on for a pretty long time. Russian imperial disintegration began in 1914, he argues, with the outbreak of the first world war and he points out that the Ottoman empire, for example, has been in the process of disintegration since the 17th century, with the Balkan wars of the 1990s and the rise of Islamic State, he says, being a part of that slow-flowing story. So, Im not prepared to jump to the conclusion that the invasion of Ukraine is the absolutely last chapter of the Russian empire. But I have no doubt that it is an important chapter.

I wonder whether he can foresee the disintegration of the Russian Federation as it is currently constituted especially in a context where Russia is seemingly recruiting its military disproportionately from its Muslim peoples and peripheral autonomous republics. The process of disintegration has already started, he replies. Already Russia doesnt control its constitutional territory by which he means that some parts of Ukraine that were formally adopted as part of the Russian Federation last autumn in the wake of the full-scale invasion, such as Kherson, have already been liberated and restored to Ukrainian hands. But yes, he says, republics on the edges of the federation such as Tuva, Buryatia and Sakha, not to mention Chechnya, are vulnerable. The longer the war goes on, the stronger the narrative that Russia is using them as cannon fodder.

It is a cruel game to ask a historian to look into the future. But here we are and, as Plokhy himself says, rephrasing Churchill, historians are probably the worst commentators on contemporary events except for all the others. So what about the Ukrainians spring counteroffensive, I ask which, when we speak in the last days of April, is expected any day.

He is not prepared to predict the outcome of that but whatever happens, it will be crucial, he says. At the extreme end of the spectrum of what the Ukrainian military might achieve is the retaking of the Crimea, about which he seems a great deal more optimistic than many observers (the Russians have built mighty defences on the peninsula, and will surely fight harder for this territory than any other part of illegally annexed Ukraine). If it were achieved, he says, it could send a shock wave into Moscow in political terms. It would have a major impact on the Ukrainian morale, on Russian morale, and on the morale of Ukraine supporters in the west. On the other hand, if the counteroffensive completely collapses, the more likely scenario would be a sort of armistice, with Ukraine losing additional territories. That wouldnt mean the end of the war, but it would mean a very different outcome.

Either way, a lot depends on it. This year started, he says, with the realisation that things will be decided on the battlefield more than they will be decided at the negotiating table. On the battlefield there were two questions: the outcome of the Russian winter offensive; and the outcome of the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive. We have the answer to the first question. Nothing came out of the Russian offensive. Now the second question is about to be answered. It may prove a turning point for the whole war.

Im curious about how he sees his book in relation to journalism. One way to look at it is that a journalist is someone who takes a photograph, he says. Then along comes the historian and creates a frame, and makes a different kind of meaning from that snapshot of reality. By contrast to the way in which a journalist would approach writing a book about the war, Plokhy takes a good 150 pages to get on to the events of 24 February 2022. Instead, he walks the reader back to 1991 (and even earlier), teasing apart the parallel stories of Russian and Ukrainian post-Soviet politics and in the process, answering some key questions about the past 30 years: why did democracy take in Ukraine but not Russia? Why does Ukraine have a post-Soviet history of mass protest and Russia not? How has Ukraine reacted at different times to the pull of Moscow on the one side, and of Nato and the EU on the other?

I tell him about an encounter I had in a bookshop in Kyiv, in which the bookseller told me the most common question she has from customers is: Can you recommend me a book thats not about Ukrainian suffering? Plokhy laughs, and tells me that Volodymyr Vynnychenko, the first prime minister of Ukraine in 1918-19, said that it was impossible to read Ukrainian history without taking bromide (once used as a sedative) because it was so painful, horrible, bitter and sad. Is Ukraine condemned to be a buffer state, trapped between east and west, destined for more and more suffering? You cant change geography, says Plokhy. You cant change your neighbours. But you can change yourself, and that seems to me what is happening now in the middle of this war. In other words, Ukraine can choose and is choosing not to be a no mans land. When you knock on Nato or the EUs door and it doesnt open right away, it doesnt matter so much if you are prepared to come back and knock again, he says. That was the case with, say, Poland. Its just a matter of time.

Hes on Ukraines side, without ambiguity or equivocation: is that OK for a historian? Should a scholar be more even-handed? I dont have a problem being on the side of the country that is trying to save its democracy from the aggression of an increasingly authoritarian, dictatorial state, he tells me. I dont have a problem being on the side of a victim attacked under a false pretext and a misinterpretation of history and history is something that I understand.

Yes, I am on one side. But its a no-brainer. He moves his camera to show me one of the maps on his office wall, made in 18th-century Italy. Above the Black Sea theres an inscription. It translates as free Ukraine. And he gives me a big, optimistic grin.

The Russo-Ukrainian War by Serhii Plokhy will be published by Allen Lane on 16 May.

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Ukrainian historian Serhii Plokhy: This may not be the last chapter of the Russian empire, but its an important one - The Guardian

Irina Tsybaneva, 60, left a note on the grave of Putins parents that said they had raised a monster and a murderer.

A 60-year-old Russian retiree was given a two-year suspended sentence after being found guilty of desecrating the grave of President Vladimir Putins parents when she left a note at the burial site that said they had brought up a monster and a murderer.

The court on Thursday found Irina Tsybaneva from St Petersburg guilty of desecrating the Putins burial place motivated by political hatred.

The retiree said she was motivated by Russias war on Ukraine.

Prosecutors had sought a three-year suspended sentence for Tsybaneva, who in October was charged with desecrating the Putin family plot in St Petersburg with a note referring to Putins deceased mother and father as parents of this maniac, independent news sites reported.

Death to Putin, you brought up a monster and a murderer, the note said, urging the deceased parents to take him with you, hes causing so much pain and trouble, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe.

The whole world is praying he would die, the note said.

Tsybanevas lawyer said she did not plead guilty because she had not desecrated the grave physically or sought publicity for her action.

The retiree who was initially placed under house arrest and prevented from going online and banned from visiting the Serafimovskoe Cemetery in St Petersburg does not plan to appeal the verdict.

Tsybaneva told the court she wrote the note after she watched the news about the war in Ukraine, news outlets reported.

After seeing the news, I was overwhelmed by fear, I felt very unwell, Tsybaneva told the court, according to Novaya Gazeta.

The fear was so strong that I could not cope with it, and this is possibly my fault. I barely remember writing it [the note], I dont have any recollection of the text itself. I realise that I succumbed to my emotions and committed an irrational act. I am sorry that my actions could offend or affect someone, she said.

Tsybaneva also said she was certain her note would not be noticed because it was rolled in a small tube and did not attract any attention, the news organisation added.

Also on Thursday, a Russian military court sentenced Nikita Tushkanov, a history teacher from Komi in northeast Russia, to five and a half years in prison for comments he made about last years explosion on the Kerch bridge linking Ukraines Crimea Peninsula to mainland Russia.

Tushkanov was found guilty of justifying terrorism and discrediting the Russian army for publishing a social media post in October calling the bridge explosion a birthday present for Putin.

The Kremlin has unleashed a sweeping campaign of repression aimed at criticism of Russias war in Ukraine, which has seen critics, in addition being fined and sentenced to jail, being fired from jobs, blacklisted and branded by the authorities as foreign agents in Russia.

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Russian woman convicted of desecrating grave of Putins parents - Al Jazeera English

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of Ukraines National Security and Defence Council (NSDC), has said that all attempts by Vladimir Putin, President of the aggressor country, to intimidate Ukraine with "adequate responses" have failed and that the worst is only just beginning for Russia itself.

Source: Danilov on Twitter

Quote from Danilov: "All of Russia's attempts to intimidate Ukrainians and the world with a so-called 'adequate response' appear to be talking to themselves. Putin used everything he could".

Details: He believes the worst is just beginning for Russia, a fake country without Western developments and investments.

"There will be many 'pleasant' encounters with advanced technologies ahead for Russians... and these will not be just smartphones," the NSDC Secretary stated.

Background: The last time, on 11 May, the Kremlin promised an "adequate response" to the supply of long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

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Putin runs out of "adequate responses", worst for Russia about to begin Ukraine's National Security and Defence ... - Yahoo News

Russias defence ministry has denied reports that Ukrainian forces had broken through in various places along the front lines and said the military situation was under control. Moscow was reacting after Russian military bloggers, writing on the Telegram messaging app, reported what they said were Ukrainian advances north and south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with some suggesting a long-awaited counteroffensive by pro-Kyiv forces had started. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had earlier said the offensive had yet to start.

Turkeys defence minister, Hulusi Akar, has said that parties to the Black Sea grain initiative are approaching an extension. Akars comment was released by his ministry in a statement on Friday, after talks in Istanbul.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko says Kyivs backers understand that a counteroffensive may not result in the complete eviction of Russian troops and the definitive defeat of Russia in all occupied areas. We have to be ready for the war to continue into next year - or it could end this year, Musiyenko told Ukrainian NV Radio. It all depends on how the battles develop. We cant guarantee how the counter-offensive will develop.

The Russian-imposed mayor of occupied Donetsk has reported on Telegram that one person was killed by Ukrainian shelling of the city overnight.

The commander of Russias Black Sea Fleet has said its defences are being tightened amid a flurry of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting its home base, the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Vice Adm Viktor Sokolov told Fridays edition of the military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda: In connection with the threat of attacks by robotic surface and underwater systems, we have increased the technical defences of the fleets main base and of the ships anchorages. Sokolov said the Black Sea Fleet, whose flagship, the cruiser Moskva, was sunk by Ukraine in April 2022, would receive four new ships in 2023.

Chinas foreign ministry has announced that its special representative of Eurasian affairs will visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia from Monday in what it calls an effort to promote peace talks,

US President Joe Biden and Spanish prime minister Pedro Snchez will discuss Ukraine, defence cooperation, and migration on Friday during a meeting at the White House. While Madrid agrees with Washington on the illegality of Russias February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Snchez will convey the divergent views of China and Brazil and propose giving greater weight to the views of non-Nato nations hurt by the war, a Spanish diplomatic source told Reuters.

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen met German finance minister Christian Lindner on Friday, to underscore the importance of working together to counter evasion of sanctions imposed on Russia over its war in Ukraine, the US Treasury has said.

The prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said on Friday they are considering speeding up a plan to disconnect the Baltic regions electricity supply from Russias power grid.

Britains defence secretary, Ben Wallace, on Thursday confirmed reports that the UK is donating long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Wallace said Ukrainians will have the best chance to defend themselves.

The US ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of covertly providing arms to Russia a charge that drew an angry rebuke from Pretoria. Reuben Brigety told a media briefing that the US believed weapons and ammunition had been loaded on to a Russian freighter that docked at a Cape Town naval base in December. We are confident that weapons were loaded on to that vessel and I would bet my life on the accuracy of that assertion, Brigety said, according to a video of the remarks. The arming of Russia by South Africa is fundamentally unacceptable.

Polands defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, confirmed that the army was aware of a possible missile heading towards the country in December but failed to inform the government. Poland has been on alert for possible spillover of weaponry from the war in neighbouring Ukraine, especially since two people were killed near the border last November by what Warsaw concluded was a misfired Ukrainian air defence missile.

Zelenskiy again denied any Ukrainian responsibility for the drone incident over the Kremlin. Russia has accused Washington and Kyiv of masterminding the attack, which it described as an assassination attempt on Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time, and no injuries were caused by the drones.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 443 of the invasion - The Guardian