Category Archives: Ukraine

Leaders of several European Union countries at a summit meeting in Granada, Spain, on Friday.Credit...Miguel Angel Molina/EPA, via Shutterstock

European Union leaders on Friday wrestled with how the bloc would have to adjust if it added Ukraine as a member, at a summit meeting in Spain that was shadowed by questions about the Wests long-term support for Kyivs war effort against Russia.

Ukraine was given a path to membership last year, beginning a yearslong process of reforms to bring Ukraine in line with E.U. regulations. President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as leaders of Poland and Baltic States, have pushed for speeding it up, but the blocs leaders have said there is no fast track to membership.

Next month, the European Commission, the blocs executive arm, is expected to publish an assessment of Kyivs efforts to align with E.U. rules, and national leaders will decide in December whether to open membership negotiations with Ukraine.

Looking ahead to the prospect of a further enlarged Union, both the E.U. and future Member States need to be ready, the heads of E.U. governments said in a statement after the meeting. Aspiring members need to step up their reform efforts, notably in the area of rule of law, the statement said. The Union needs to lay the necessary internal groundwork and reforms.

If Ukraine becomes a member, it would significantly transform the structure of the blocs budget. Some Eastern European nations would be required to pay more than they receive in subsidies.

There are many questions, doubts, Viktor Orban of Hungary said about the prospect of Ukraine joining the bloc. First, we need to know how much money we are speaking about.

The informal talks this week in Granada, Spain, where the leaders also discussed migration and economic autonomy, were a preparation for formal meetings of the blocs leaders later this year.

Even as talks over Ukraines membership continued, E.U. nations were reckoning with the economic and political costs of continuing to send military aid to the country, especially as political turmoil in Congress threatened American aid.

E.U. leaders are expected to discuss a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine at a summit later this month in Brussels, but they already indicated that they would not be able to fill the gap in support left by the United States should Congress fail to vote for more aid.

Moscows full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has forced the 27-nation bloc to consider further expanding its ranks, but joining is a long and painstaking process that usually takes around a decade, even for nations not at war.

With this war by Russia against Ukraine, it is not possible anymore to procrastinate, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, said on Friday, referring to enlarging the bloc. It doesnt mean that its going to be easy, because across the European Union there are different opinions and different sensitivities.

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Pressure Grows on Germany to Give Ukraine Long-Range Missiles - The New York Times

The war in Ukraine has gouged a scar in the landscape so vast, that it's easily visible from space.

A new analysis by NASA's Harvest program and shared exclusively with NPR shows that between 5.2 and 6.9 million acres (2.1-2.8 million hectares) of prime farmland have been abandoned as a result of the war since 2021. The abandoned fields represent between 6.5 and 8.5% of Ukraine's total cropland.

The losses represent "a massive amount of land," says Inbal Becker-Reshef, the program director for NASA Harvest and a research professor at the University of Maryland and the University of Strasbourg in France. Much of the fallow land lies in a vast swath along the front line of the war, while other fields are in areas recently retaken by Ukrainian forces, she says.

The scar left by the fighting is easily visible in satellite imagery from the commercial company Planet. Paradoxically, the untended farmland is still green because it has filled with weeds and other plants. Harvested plots mostly appear brown in the autumn.

Becker-Reshef says that while overall, Ukraine has been able to maintain its agricultural output this year, the abandoned fields have already cost the nation around $2 billion in lost crops. Moreover, she predicts the fighting will likely hinder Ukraine's output for many years to come. As the losses compound over time, "that cost will be much, much higher," she says.

Ukraine is a major agricultural producer, supplying roughly 9% of the world's wheat exports. The front line in the conflict winds through of some of the nation's most fertile fields. After the first year of the war, much of that line has been hardened with trenches, anti-tank barriers, and landmines all of which affect farmers near the front.

But the NASA-backed researchers say that perhaps the largest obstacle to farming is the vast amount of artillery ammunition being lobbed by each side towards the other.

Looking at where the harvest stops, "it is a real, stunningly sharp edge," says Josef Wagner, a graduate student at the University of Strasbourg who's working on the Harvest team. "When you look at the images, you can draw the line where it's cultivated and where it's not." Often, he thinks that line is determined by whether a field is in the range of enemy shelling.

Ukrainian soldiers patrol with a howitzer near the frontline on July 01, 2023. Artillery fire is believed to be a major reason farmers are abandoning their fields. Ercin Erturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images hide caption

Ukrainian soldiers patrol with a howitzer near the frontline on July 01, 2023. Artillery fire is believed to be a major reason farmers are abandoning their fields.

Precise estimates of how much artillery ammunition has been used in the war so far are hard to come by, but Russian and Ukrainian forces are firing thousands of rounds a day, according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Kofman says that there are multiple reasons why artillery has featured so heavily in the war. Part of the issue is that strong air defenses on both sides of the line prevent aircraft from playing a role in the fighting.

"In an environment where neither side is able to obtain air superiority, then the way of fighting is going to very heavily privilege artillery," he says. In addition, both Russia and Ukraine's armies have their roots in the Soviet Union, which heavily favored the use of artillery in military maneuvers.

Regardless of the precise cultural and tactical reasons, the artillery war in Ukraine is unlike other recent conflicts. America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan saw the use of air-launched weapons and roadside bombs, both of which took an enormous toll in terms of human life. But for the most part, those weapons were used on selected targets, usually in populated areas.

In the case of Ukraine, much of the ordnance is being fired over vast sections of rural land. As a result, shells are landing in random fields throughout the countryside.

"The mass of metal flying each way is phenomenal," says Patrick Hinton, an officer in the British Army's Royal Artillery and a recent visiting fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank.

The amount of artillery being expended is so great that both nations are seeking additional stocks: Ukraine has sought munitions from the West, including controversial "cluster munitions", while Russia is reportedly talking to Iran and North Korea about supplying it with more shells.

World War I craters near the ruined village of Fleury devant Douaumont, France. More than a century after the fighting, the area is still considered unsafe for habitation. Virginia Mayo/AP hide caption

World War I craters near the ruined village of Fleury devant Douaumont, France. More than a century after the fighting, the area is still considered unsafe for habitation.

The situation harkens back to the world wars of the previous century, Hinton says. And those wars may provide the best hints of what the long-term consequences will be. More than a century after some of the battles were fought, unexploded shells and bombs are regularly being found in places like Flanders, Belgium.

"These can lay in the ground for over a hundred years and still be lethal," says Iain Overton, the executive director of Action on Armed Violence, a British non-profit that focuses on the harm caused by explosive weapons.

And when shells explode correctly they can make an even bigger mess spraying heavy metals and toxic chemicals across the fields on which they land. The contaminants "can get into the food chain and cause some very long-term and very real consequences to the quality of the food Ukraine is producing," Overton says.

In the case of previous wars, the impacts have been profound. Parts of northeastern France are still uninhabitable because of concentrated shelling in the First World War. The land, known as the "Zone Rouge", remains peppered with unexploded ordnance and toxic metals.

The intensity of the artillery fire in Ukraine is a far cry from WWI, where well over a billion shells were expended. Still, Overton says, the amount of unexploded ordnance, land mines, and toxic pollution in farmland along the front line will make returning those fields to production a "gargantuan task."

"There is a very-long term challenge for the Ukrainians," he says.

A tractor collects straw on a field in a private farm in Zhurivka, Kyiv region, Ukraine, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023. Despite losing a significant amount of cropland, Ukrainian farmers have managed to maintain production. Efrem Lukatsky/AP hide caption

A tractor collects straw on a field in a private farm in Zhurivka, Kyiv region, Ukraine, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023. Despite losing a significant amount of cropland, Ukrainian farmers have managed to maintain production.

Despite losing some of their best cropland to the war, Ukraine's farmers have managed to keep producing, the NASA Harvest analysis shows.

In part that's because Ukraine had a good summer in terms of weather and rainfall. "While we've seen some decrease in planted areas, we've seen increases in yields," Becker-Reshef says. In addition, the analysis showed a dramatic increase in oilseed crops, such as rapeseed and sunflower oil.

Becker-Reshef believes the decision to shift to these crops is in part due to the fact they are easier to grow than wheat, and also because the oil, which is liquid, is easier to export through land corridors. Wheat, by contrast, has been shipped primarily through ports that have been attacked in recent months by Russia.

As the war wears on, Becker-Reshef thinks it will be harder and harder for Ukraine to maintain its agricultural production. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam earlier this year drained a massive reservoir and left nearly a thousand miles of irrigation channels without a source of water. "We're seeing a lot less irrigation this summer relative to even last year," she says." Basically all the canals have dried out." Those canals mainly supply water to Russian-occupied Ukraine.

Still, she says, Ukrainian farmers have demonstrated incredible resilience. They continue to farm "whatever they can, wherever they can."

"I think we expect Ukraine to come out of this and to be able to rebuild and recover," she says. "But at a very large expense."

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The bruising artillery battle in Ukraine has left a scar that is visible ... - NPR

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Military briefing: the advance of Ukraine's 'mosquito navy' - Financial Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on September 21. Zelenskyy made his renewed case for American aid to Ukraine to a deeply divided Congress. Mark Schiefelbein/AP hide caption

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on September 21. Zelenskyy made his renewed case for American aid to Ukraine to a deeply divided Congress.

The next speaker of the House will have the power to decide what policies come up for a vote in the House of Representatives, leaving funding for U.S. involvement in Ukraine in the balance.

Last week, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made a last-minute decision to move ahead with a short-term government spending bill without the $24 billion for military, humanitarian and economic aid for Ukraine requested by President Biden. That move avoided an impending government shutdown but it may have doomed any future funding.

McCarthy lost his job days later after hardline members turned on him for passing a spending bill with the support of Democrats. Now as House Republicans choose his successor, each candidate is under the same intense pressure from far-right members who ousted McCarthy.

Roughly half of House Republicans recently opposed a relatively small $300 million aid package for Ukraine and support for further spending is even less predictable. The issue also divides the three potential candidates who have emerged so far, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla.

Jordan and Scalise are officially in the running and Hern has yet to decide. While others may still enter the race, the future speaker will need to win the support of 218 members and Ukraine is expected to be a significant factor.

Jordan told reporters Wednesday that he was "against" moving forward with an aid package for Ukraine. "The most pressing issue on Americans' minds is not Ukraine," he said. "It is the border situation, and it's crime on the streets. And everybody knows that. So let's address those."

Jordan and Hern have both consistently voted against Ukraine funding since the war began, and both voted against the $300 million in aid that was separated from the Defense bill last week.

Scalise, however, did vote for the $300 million in aid last week, as well as $40 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine in 2022.

Ukraine aid was one of several sticking points among House Republicans as they tried to coalesce around government funding bills last month. There are a number of members in the conference who do not support any further assistance to Ukraine.

Others say they are sympathetic to the cause, but have concerns about oversight and potential corruption in the Ukrainian government. Republican leadership removed $300 million of Ukraine aid when the divide over that funding threatened their ability to pass the entire Defense Department appropriations bill.

Leaders decided instead to bring that $300 million up for a standalone vote 101 Republicans supported it and 117 Republicans opposed.

When McCarthy introduced a short-term government funding measure last week to avoid a shutdown, there was no money for Ukraine.

Democrats said they were disappointed the Ukraine money did not make it into the stopgap, but they were also optimistic that McCarthy would move forward with the aid separately. Rep. Jim McGovern, the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, told reporters "I trust that we'll figure out a way" to pass more funding.

Top Democrats in the House released a statement saying, "When the House returns, we expect Speaker McCarthy to advance a bill to the House Floor for an up-or-down vote that supports Ukraine, consistent with his commitment to making sure that Vladimir Putin, Russia and authoritarianism are defeated."

But now that McCarthy has been voted out, Republicans have to choose his replacement before any work can be done to pass appropriations on the floor for Ukraine or otherwise. And there's no guarantee that McCarthy's successor would agree to advance Ukraine aid at all. Which brings us back to his potential replacements.

President Biden said Wednesday that he is worried the speakership shake-up could threaten Congress's ability to deliver more Ukraine funding. "But I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate, in both parties, who have said that they support funding Ukraine," he added, noting he planned to soon announce a "major speech" on the issue.

It's unclear whether House Republicans who oppose aid to Ukraine would vote for a new speaker who supports it. But outright opposition to Ukraine aid could also alienate the 100 or so Republicans who do want continued support. And as we saw this week, it only takes a handful of defectors from within the narrow majority to bring the chamber to a screeching halt.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who supports Ukraine funding, has suggested the money could be paired with border security measures to win passage in the House. He said the Senate should craft a package with Ukraine money, border security and natural disaster aid to send over to the House as part of the next short-term government funding measure.

"If they took up that package ... it would pass overwhelmingly in the House," he said. "You'd get more than half of the Republicans and virtually all Democrats."

Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said he would support further Ukraine funding however it could pass either as a standalone bill, part of a border package or attached to a larger appropriations bill.

"Regardless of who the speaker is, I believe that we will have appropriate funding for Ukraine. The question is what vehicle is the best vehicle and for what length of time," he said. "But for folks that are wondering whether or not we need to send a message to Putin, there is no misunderstanding about the fact that we will support Ukraine in their battle for freedom."

But even before McCarthy's ouster, Democrats brushed aside the idea of pairing Ukraine money with border security as unworkable, or political gamesmanship.

"Why are we playing politics with the future of the world order?" Sen. Chris Murphy said Saturday night. "Guess what? We haven't been able to do immigration reform in 40 years. It's hard. We should do it but you shouldn't put the survival of Ukraine on the backs of our ability to break a 40-year logjam on immigration. It's just too important."

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The fate of Ukraine funding lies in the balance with speaker's race - NPR

Its estimated that4.5 million more workers may be needed over the next decade in the labour force.

UN News asked Michael Newson, Senior Programme Coordinator for Migration and Sustainable Development at the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Kyiv, Ukraine, about how people could be encouraged back home.

Michael Newson: IOM has already observed an increase of Ukrainians returning to Ukraine despite the ongoing war. Numerous surveys have indicated that a large percentage of Ukrainians who fled the country, especially those based in the European Union, intend to return once conditions allow. We can also expect that many will remain abroad in the long term. Current data suggests that Ukraine can expect a larger share of its population abroad to return after the war than we have seen in other post-conflict settings.

When and whether Ukrainians abroad return to the country will depend on a number of factors, including their conditions in their countries of refuge and in Ukraine. The number of people who choose to return to Ukraine will also depend on the types of policies and programmes that the Ukrainian Government and the international community put in place to incentivize return.

Reconstruction efforts are already underway in Ukraine, including schools.

UN News:What conditions are needed to encourage people to return home?

Michael Newson: Security is obviously a key criterion. Until people can feel safe and comfortable returning to their homes, any incentive programmes are likely to have a limited effect. People want to have a sense of economic stability and confidence that they will be able to provide for themselves and their families upon return. As such, ensuring basic healthcare and education services are in place is essential.

Developing programmes to link persons abroad with job opportunities in Ukraine even prior to their return will go a long way in encouraging people to return to the country. Often, we speak of providing financial incentives for return to address the costs of return and re-establishing oneself. Ultimately, incentive packages have to reduce the risks that people perceive with return. That includes security risks but also the economic risks and the risks that, should they choose to reverse their decision, they wont be able to return to their country of refuge.

UN News:How will IOM support the Ministry of Economy in the process of reintegrating Ukrainians and ensuring a smooth transition back into the labour market?

Michael Newson: These are precisely the types of conversations we are currently having with colleagues at the Ministry of Economy and International Labour Organization (ILO).

Agriculture is one of the most important industries in Ukraine.

What is absolutely essential is that programmes are evidence-based. We need to develop programmes that respond to concerns Ukrainians abroad have when they are considering returning and to issues people who have already returned have faced in terms of their reintegration and transition into the labour market.

We can also learn from previous post-war scenarios. We need to recognize that, like anyone who is considering a major move, having a job and being able to provide for oneself is only part of the concerns of moving.

Developing services for potential returnees that assist and facilitate the process of finding housing, enrolling children in school, finding a job, or linking with healthcare services for existing and chronic health issues will also encourage return and ensure a smooth transition.

What we want to avoid is providing incentives for return and reintegration that put returnees in a more favourable position to those who have remained in the country, as this can lead to social tensions.

UN News:If not enough Ukrainians workers return home post-war, how will this affect the job market?

Michael Newson: Given the demographic situation in Ukraine even before the full-scale invasion, its clear that returning Ukrainians, on their own, will not be sufficient to meet the labour market needs of the country going forward, both for reconstruction and the broader economic recovery.

The Ministry of Economy has indicated that an additional 4.5 million workers may be needed in the next 10 years to meet labour market needs and economic objectives.

Incoming labour migration will be one of several tools that will be used in order to address this.

Ukraine is one of many countries in the region which is not traditionally seen as countries of immigration but need to start to reconsider policies and look at bringing in foreign workers to meet growing labour market gaps both at higher and lower skill levels.

Many Ukrainians who were forced to live in basements during the early stages of the invasion fled the country.

Beyond these priorities, we should also be looking at capital investments such as machinery and automation as well as a re-design of management and operations structures that can increase productivity.

UN News: How challenging do you expect the post-war period to be as Ukraine readjusts to peace time?

Michael Newson: The challenges Ukraine faced even prior to the full-scale invasion were significant. The war has obviously exacerbated a number of these challenges relating to demographics, social services, and economic development.

However, I am heartened and encouraged by the Government of Ukraines willingness to acknowledge and face these challenges head on. The Government and the people of Ukraine have demonstrated incredible resilience and adaptability over the past 18 months.

There is no reason to think that, with the support of the international community, they could not adapt in order to stimulate the countrys reconstruction and economic recovery when peace arrives.

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INTERVIEW: Planning the post-invasion return of citizens to Ukraine - UN News

To date, this Emergency Appeal, which seeks CHF 800 million, is 59% cent funded, and a significant funding gap of CHF 328 million remains. To continue supporting National Societies around the world to play their key role in supporting people impacted by the crisis, the IFRC calls for partners to renew their commitment to accompanying the IFRC Network in its response by further contributing to the IFRC Appeal

Description of the crisis

Eighteen months of conflict escalation between Russia and Ukraine continues to claim lives and fuel a wide-ranging of hu-manitarian crisis. 21 million people are affected in and outside of Ukraine and the humanitarian needs remain high, with sudden spikes in response to the developments on the ground, including new hostilities in eastern Ukraine and movements of people within and outside the country.

One devastating recent consequence of the conflict has been the destruction and subsequent depletion of the Kakhovka dam, leading to urgent and dire humanitarian needs across southern and eastern Ukraine. The repercussions have extended to surrounding regions, where private homes, businesses, and community infrastructure have suffered extensive damage. Tens of thousands of people in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast lost access to piped water, as the reservoir, which serves as a crucial source of drinking water for at least 700,000 individuals, experienced in the first week a staggering 70% decrease in capacity, as reported by Ukrainian authorities.

The number of displaced people increased over months in some of the neighboring countries. For instance, Bulgaria has witnessed a doubling of arrivals since May 2023, placing immense pressure on services and aid support. While some of these arrivals may be temporary, already 5,000 additional displaced people sought accommodation support in the country. Hosting countries are also issuing new legislations with a variety of impacts on displaced people from Ukraine and other migrants.

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Ukraine and Impacted Countries Crisis - Emergency Appeal n ... - ReliefWeb

In a bid to boost international research collaboration, the University of Liverpool has successfully led a project aiming to enhance digital research ties between the UK and Ukraine. Focusing on a broad digital theme, the initiative explores areas like mathematics, algorithms, AI, data science and more.

Titled Building Digital Capability for Recovery in Ukraine, the venture was pioneered by Professor Igor Potapov from the Department of Computer Science at the University of Liverpool Science for Ukraine initiative. The programme's goals are multifaceted, from stimulating the growth of the research environment and promoting Ukrainian scientific organisations to establishing a vibrant research network with representatives from various prestigious organisations. These include The Royal Society, The Turing Institute, and the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.

The project was formally started with an open call for Digital Theme Ambassadors in January 2023. This call saw significant promotion on popular social platforms like LinkedIn and Twitter. Thanks to assistance from the #ScienceForUkraine academic community group and the Cormack Consultancy Group, the call reached a broad audience. From January to March 2023, the project witnessed the recruitment of 64 Digital Theme Ambassadors. These ambassadors hail from diverse academic backgrounds, with 48.4% from the UK, 36.9% from Ukraine, and the remainder international academics.

To further nurture these collaborations, the University of Liverpool hosted a series of hybrid coordination meetings, culminating in the UK-Ukraine research twinning conference. The event occurred from March 27-30, 2023, with an impressive turnout of 292 participants from the UK and Ukraine. Post the conference, a research network known as the DIGITAL-UA Slack Channel emerged. The channel is initiated and maintained by Digital Theme Ambassador Dr Olexandr Konovalov from University of St Andrews and the channel now boasts 180 academic members, serving as a hub for discussion, information dissemination and fostering new initiatives.

Various online platforms facilitated this conference, with Easychair utilised for the submission review process, Gather.town for organising virtual poster sessions and Zoom for online sessions of invited talks and presentations.

On the benefits front, this initiative is expected to pave the way for Ukrainian academics to integrate seamlessly into the international research circuit. Numerous new collaborations have already surfaced. For instance, The Turing Institute is now in talks on cybersecurity and software verification, while there's a budding collaboration between BCS and top Ukrainian universities.

These advancements echo the OECD Policy Responses recommendation for Digitalisation for recovery in Ukraine. Furthermore, multiple academic media platforms and newsletters have reported the success of this initiative, amplifying its significance in bolstering UK-Ukraine digital research collaborations.

It is a groundbreaking move that promises to augment Ukraine's digital infrastructure, digital economy, and IT sector, potentially playing a pivotal role in its future recovery.

The University of Liverpool utilised a trio of online platforms for a recent conference: Zoom for videoconferencing, Gather.town as a virtual venue, and Slack for updates and chat conversations. Zoom provided the leading platform for talks, but solely relying on it could lead to a mundane experience. Gather.town was incorporated to mimic the atmosphere of a physical event, allowing participants to engage in impromptu interactions when their avatars approached each other.

Gather.town excelled during the poster sessions. Attendees could navigate their avatars to different poster booths, view previews, and interact with presenters in a designated private space. However, anticipating its use for spontaneous interaction was more challenging and might require more host interactions. Nonetheless, Gather.town is suited well for virtual exhibitions with predefined informational context for interactions or for more intimate gatherings where participants had pre-existing real-life connections.

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Digital Collaboration between UK and Ukraine | BCS - BCS

Inter Miami CF defender Sergii Kryvtsov has been called up to the Ukrainian national team for its upcoming 2024 UEFA Euro qualifying matches.

Kryvtsov and Ukraine will first face North Macedonia in epet ARENA in Prague, Czech Republic on Saturday, Oct. 14 at 9 a.m. ET. In the following matchup, the Ukrainian team will visit Malta in the Ta Qali National Stadium in Malta, on Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 2:45 p.m. ET.

In the international arena, Kryvtsov represented Ukraine's U-16, U-17, U-18, U-19, and U-21 youth sides before debuting for the nations senior side in 2011. Notably, he was a key member of Ukraines U-19 side that clinched the UEFA European Under-19 Championship in 2009, starting and playing the full 90 minutes in each of the teams five matches of the competition. The defender has played a total of 34 times for Ukraines senior side to date, including two UEFA Euro 2020 and seven UEFA Nations League appearances, and recorded an assist in the process. Most recently, Kryvtsov featured for Ukraine this past month for the UEFA Euro qualifying matches, coming on as a second-half substitute in the teams 1-1 draw against England before starting in Ukraines second match against Italy.

At the club level, the 32-year-old center-back has registered 37 appearances across all competitions to date since joining the team in January, recording an assist and a goal. Notably, Kryvtsov was a key member in the teams 2023 Leagues Cup title-winning campaign, starting in all seven matches throughout the competition and recording his first assist for the Club in the semifinals as Inter Miami won its first official trophy.

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Called Up: Sergii Kryvtsov Called Up by Ukraine National Team - Inter Miami CF

In addition to using airstrikes to attack Russian military forces on or near the battlefield, Ukraine has also conducted more than 100 attacks, mostly with an array of drones, inside Russia itself and against Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine has bombed not only numerous military targets, but also the Expo Center exhibition complex and a skyscraper under construction in Moscow, oil facilities in Crimea, and infrastructure in other areas, such as an electric substation. These strikes are now a regular occurrence and, while causing few casualties, have temporarily shut down various airports and otherwise disrupted daily life.

In addition to using airstrikes to attack Russian military forces on or near the battlefield, Ukraine has also conducted more than 100 attacks, mostly with an array of drones, inside Russia itself and against Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine has bombed not only numerous military targets, but also the Expo Center exhibition complex and a skyscraper under construction in Moscow, oil facilities in Crimea, and infrastructure in other areas, such as an electric substation. These strikes are now a regular occurrence and, while causing few casualties, have temporarily shut down various airports and otherwise disrupted daily life.

These attacks hinder Russian warfighting, but Ukrainian leaders probably also seek to have a more strategic impact, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declaring that the strikes show that war is gradually returning to Russia. How might Ukraines air attacks coerce Russia, if at all?

Most studies of the strategic use of air power warn that having a major impact on adversary decision-making through air power alone is difficult. Drawing on the history of strategic bombing in World War II, Vietnam, the first Gulf War, Kosovo, and other campaigns, scholars have concluded that strategic effects are rare. Adversary leaders and publics rally in the face of bombing, at times becoming more supportive of their regimes or, at the very least, finding themselves unable to rebel against powerful governments, and these campaigns can divert air assets from the battlefield.

Yet these and other works also suggest that strategic bombing can have a range of effects, from diverting scarce air defense resources to building up morale in the country carrying out the bombing.

The Russia-Ukraine war differs from many past uses of air power. In this conflict, neither side has true air superiorityboth continue to bomb the other using drones and missiles, among other means. In addition, the strategic air campaign is at best a minor part of the overall struggle. The vast majority of air attacks are part of the clash of conventional forces. Finally, in the case of Ukrainian attacks on Russia, the strikes are at best minor, causing few casualties and only minimal disruptions to daily life, in contrast to the much more massiveand deadlyRussian bombing of Ukraine.

Most of the overall effort to coerce Moscow involves economic pressure and the clash of armies along various fronts in Ukraine. The United States and its European allies have orchestrated extensive financial, import and export, and other sanctions on Russia. Moscow has weathered these sanctions so far, but the pressure continues. Part of the goal is to undermine popular support for Russian President Vladimir Putins regime, putting pressure on it to end the conflict. A separate goal is to increase elite dissatisfaction, which may also put pressure on Putin and could even lead to a coup. In addition, Ukrainian bravery and resourcefulnessbacked by massive U.S. and European aidhas thwarted Russias expansive military goals. Continued resistance and counteroffensives are a form of coercion by denial, essentially sending a message to Moscow that it will not achieve its maximal objectives and that, as a result, continued fighting will achieve little.

Compared with these two coercive prongs, airstrikes deep into Russia are less importantbut they are not irrelevant. One possible effect is that Russians become afraid of the airstrikes and turn against their government. This seems highly unlikely. It is unclear if Ukraine has killed any Russians in these air attacks (though it is possible that Russia is covering up a small death toll), but in any event, the numbers would be small, especially for a big country like Russia.

In addition, the airstrikes are not that frequent and only hit small parts of the country. The vast majority of Russians can go about their daily lives largely unaffected. Perhaps most important, even if they are angry and terrified, it is hard for citizens to rebel against an authoritarian regime, though a rapid change is at least conceivable.

A more realistic goal would be to augment the strategy of military denial by making it clear to ordinary Russians and the Russian elite that they are not winning. Continued Ukrainian airstrikes can interrupt the steady drumbeat of regime propaganda, showing that Ukraines will to fight remains strong. Putin has successfully convincedor forcedordinary Russians to support the war, but they will be less enthusiastic the more apparent it is that they are not winning.

Even more important, these airstrikes, even if limited, can hearten Ukrainian resistance. Coercion is usually dynamic, with both sides trying to convince the other side that it cannot win and thus should make concessions. Ukraines efforts may seem paltry when compared with Russias bombing campaign, which has targeted civilians in Kyiv and other cities, as well as Ukraines power grid, grain shipping facilities in Odesa, and other sites. These attacks regularly kill civilians, sometimes in large numbers, such as the bombing of a theater-turned-shelter in Mariupol that reportedly killed around 300 Ukrainians.

Nevertheless, when punishment is one-sided, it is hard to convince people to stay in the fight. But the demonstrated ability to hurt the other side gives people hope. Shortly after Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, the United States conducted a daring bombing raid on Japan itself, known as the Doolittle Raid. Although the operation itself did only limited damage to Japan, and the United States lost most of the aircraft and several of the crew involved, it buoyed American spiritsthe United States was striking back and making its enemy pay.

Finally, airstrikes might force Russia to divert resources to protect its cities and infrastructure, including resources that might be better used on the battlefield. The Doolittle Raid led Japan to station four of its fighter groups in the home islands during 1942 and 1943, a time when it desperately needed air power elsewhere, as well as to increase its overall defensive perimeter, which made its supply lines vulnerable. To the extent that Putin is feeling political heat from Ukrainian attacks, he may feel compelled to have the Russian military increase air defenses around Russian cities and other targets, with less available for the battlefield.

Despite these possible benefits, coercive airstrikes can have several potentially negative effects. First, it is very difficult to send messages about willpower, surrendering, or red lines through the use of military force. Misperceptions, the fog of war, and other biases quickly come into play. Even accidents can be considered part of an overall design. The United States shot down Iran Air flight 655 in 1988, mistaking it for an Iranian military aircraft at a time of a military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz and killing all 290 passengers aboard. As Iran expert Kenneth Pollack wrote, The Iranian government assumed that the attack had been purposeful as part of a U.S. plan to help Iraq in its war against Iran.

In the Russia-Ukraine context, it is possible that Ukrainian strikes meant to demonstrate resolve or show the Russian elite that Moscow is losing could instead convey a different, and quite unintended, message.

The adversary may even escalate in response. Ukraines attacks on civilians or civilian infrastructure could bolster Putins argument that the Ukrainians are barbaric and that Russias own numerous atrocities are justified. They could also discredit voices calling for peace or restraint and even strengthen domestic support for a regime that can now claim it is acting in self-defense.

They may even lead to more brutality against Ukrainian citizens. In addition to bolstering its air defenses after the Doolittle Raid, Japan carried out brutal reprisals in China, fearing that the nationalist government there posed a more dangerous threat than anticipated because of its sheltering of U.S. air forces. In August, Russia unleashed a barrage of missile and drone attacks, claiming that it was a response to a Ukrainian attack on a Russian tanker.

For Ukraine, the most important risk might be diplomatic. Although some supporters of sanctions and other anti-Russia measures are staunch, many care little about the conflict and would prefer to resume trade with Russia. Being able to use Ukrainian strikes as a false form of moral equivalency may allow some governments to reduce support for Ukraine.

Ukraines coercive airstrikes must be thought of in the broader context. The most important use of air power remains on the battlefield, but the strikes on Russia itself might have a range of benefits, not least to Ukrainian morale. At the same time, Ukraine must carefully balance how such strikes are perceived in Russia and abroad.

Read more from the original source:

Are Ukraine's Airstrikes Inside Russia Strategically Effective in the ... - Foreign Policy

Hamas vs. Israel, again. Rockets are targeting multiple northern and southern Israeli cities Tuesday, including the capital of Tel Aviv, as the militant group Hamas continues its new assault on Israel that began with a brutal surprise attack across several fronts on Saturday.

At least 1,600 people have died so far from the fighting, which has caused Israel to declare war and call up 360,000 reservists, which the New York Times reports is a record number in such a short period of time (four days of conflict). The death toll includes around 900 in Israel, and almost 700 in Gaza, according to the Associated Press, citing the Israeli military and officials in Gaza.

Hamas will understand that by attacking us, they have made a mistake of historic proportions, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, writing Monday on social media. The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling, he said; and those attacks included slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors.

We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israels other enemies for decades to come, Netanyahu vowed. Already, the scale of violence rivals Israels war with Egypt and Syria 50 years ago. Reuters reports the Israeli air force is carrying out its fiercest attacks on the Gaza Strip in its 75-year conflict with the Palestinians, razing whole districts to dust despite a threat from Hamas militants to execute a captive for each home hit.

What does Hamas want? Palestinian statehood and an end to Israeli occupation, for starters. According to AP, reporting Monday from Jerusalem, Desperation has grown among Palestinians, many of whom see nothing to lose under unending Israeli control and increasing settler depredations in the West Bank, the blockade in Gaza and what they see as the worlds apathy.

Meanwhile, Israel is run by its most hard-right government ever, dominated by ministers who adamantly reject Palestinian statehood, AP writes. So its far from clear when the current fighting could come to an end.

The view from Washington: Hamas is a terrorist group. Full stop, said a White House official in a phone call with reporters on Saturday, and promised, we will treat Hamas for what they are. They are an international terrorist organization.

The Israelis have described this as their September 11th, a Pentagon official told reporters Monday. This is ISIS-level savagery that we have seen committed against Israeli civilianshouses burned to the ground, young people massacred at music festivals, the official said.

Thats partly why the Pentagon ordered its USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean shortly after the attacks began. That group includes the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy; and four Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyersUSS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, and USS Roosevelt.

The U.S. military also augmented F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in a statement Sunday, and added, The U.S. maintains ready forces globally to further reinforce this deterrence posture if required.

The Pentagon is already sending additional military aid to Israel, John Kirby of the National Security Council said Monday evening. We fully expect that there will be additional requests for security assistance from Israel as they continue to expend munitions in this fight, he said. And we will stay in lockstep with them, making sure that were filling their needs as best we can and as fast as we can.

Developing: Hamas officials claim Iran helped plan the attacks, according to the Wall Street Journal, reporting Sunday from Dubai. However, White House and Pentagon officials said publicly afterward that they have not yet seen any evidence to support that claim, though officials are watching closely for any signs. After all, Kirby said Monday evening, Iran has been supporting Hamas for many, many yearstools, training, capabilitiescertainly rhetorically but in much more tangible ways than that. So, absolutely, theres a degree of complicity here writ large.

At least 11 Americans have been killed in the attacks by Hamas militants; others may be held hostage. (The New York Times is keeping tabs on foreigners who are believed to have perished or remain unaccounted for so far, here.) President Joe Biden said Monday that hes directed my team to work with their Israeli counterparts on every aspect of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts.

In this moment of heartbreak, the American people stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israelis, said Biden. We remember the pain of being attacked by terrorists at home, and Americans across the country stand united against these evil acts that have once more claimed innocent American lives.

Biden also joined his French, German, Italian, and British counterparts condemning Hamas and its appalling acts of terrorism, according to a joint statement released Monday. There is never any justification for terrorism, they said, and threw their support behind Israel, warning, this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.

All of us recognize the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people, and support equal measures of justice and freedom for Israelis and Palestinians alike, the five leaders added. But make no mistake, they said; Hamas does not represent those aspirations, and it offers nothing for the Palestinian people other than more terror and bloodshed.

Looking ahead, if the U.S. wants to help Israel and Ukraine simultaneously in their times of need, We need additional support from Congress, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters at the AUSA annual conference in Washington on Monday. Wormuth has been spending the last several months trying to shake out whatever additional munitions she can from the U.S. defense industrial base to help satisfy Ukraines artillery needs.

The Army will need additional funding from Congress, to be able to increase our capacityto expand production and then to also pay for the munitions themselves, she said Monday.

A Pentagon official concurred on Monday, telling reporters, This is a clarifying moment in which we would welcome working in a bipartisan manner with Congress and the executive branch to ensure that we're sending a signal to allies and partners across the world that our government, both parties and both branches of our government, are working together to ensure that the appropriate authority and appropriations are available to support and respond to crises and contingencies.

A snapshot from the Association of the U.S. Armys annual meeting: As the war raged in the Middle East, the annual AUSA show went on in Washingtonbut several of the display booths at Israels capacious pavilion on the show floor sat deserted, Defense One staff reported Monday. Instead, a candle burned on a counter and sales representatives wore black swatches behind their U.S.-Israel flag pins. Israel Aerospace Industries canceled a planned press event.

We have a bit more from AUSA below the fold

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. If youre not already subscribed, you can sign up here. On this day in 1845, the U.S. Naval Academy opened in Annapolis, Maryland, with a class of 50 midshipmen and seven professors. The curriculum included mathematics and navigation, gunnery and steam, chemistry, English, natural philosophy, and French.

Pentagon chief Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Charles Brown are traveling to Brussels for Wednesdays in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which is the 16th group meeting to date. While in Brussels, Secretary Austin will also join a NATO Defense Ministerial scheduled for Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

The rainy season has begun in Ukraine, though conditions vary across the vast front lines, according to the latest assessment from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, writing Monday evening. Otherwise, Ukrainian forces continue to advance incrementally in several locations around western Zaporizhzhia and to the east, while the deteriorating weather is making drone operations more challenging. Reuters has a bit more on recent alleged Ukrainian gains, here.

Its a big week for Pentagon officials in public, due partly to the AUSA conference in downtown D.C. But its also a busy week for several other organizations hosting events this week, too, including the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Atlantic Council.

Army chief Gen. Randy George is set to speak Tuesday at the AUSA conference; thats slated for 12:30 p.m. ET. NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM commanders are expected to speak as well at AUSA on Tuesday. Check out an online interactive schedule for AUSA, here.

Indo-Pacific Command's Intelligence Director Rear Admiral Thomas Henderschedt headlines the event hosted by INSA. Hell be speaking with INSA President Suzanne Wilson Heckenberg at 2 p.m. ET. Details here.

Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Intelligence Maj. Gen. Gagnon is visiting CSIS for a 3 p.m. ET event entitled, Implementing Competitive Endurance: Space Intelligence. Details and livestream, here.

And Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall is visiting the Atlantic Council to unpack Air and Space Force modernization at about 3:30 p.m. ET. Details and livestream, here.

News out of AUSA:

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned to Defense One for more coverage out of AUSA.

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Today's D Brief: Hamas-Israel war; US reaction; Rain arrives in ... - Defense One