Category Archives: Ukraine

April 28 | False flag attacks in Transnistria

Explosions in Transnistria, a separatist, pro-Russian region of Moldova, are fueling fears that the Kremlins offensive could spill beyond the borders of Ukraine. On Monday, a Security Ministry building in Tiraspol, the capital of the unrecognized republic, was attacked with grenade launchers. On Tuesday there were blasts that damaged radio antennas in Maiac, and a strike against a military unit near Parcani. On Wednesday, local authorities reported attacks from Ukrainian territory against a weapons and ammunition depot housing thousands of tons of Soviet-era equipment in the town of Cobasna. The government of Moldova attributed the attacks to internal forces that seek to provoke a war and destabilize the situation. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers these false flag attacks conducted either by Russian forces or by sympathizers of the Kremlin who are seeking to create the right conditions to justify new operations in the area, or else to destabilize Moldova.

Shots from the

Ukraine border

Attack against

a military unit

Source: Interior Ministry and Security Council of Transnistria, TASS

Shots from the

Ukraine border

Attack against

communication towers

Attack against

a military unit

Source: Interior Ministry and Security Council of Transnistria, TASS

The attacks would serve as a pretext for Moscow to allegedly safeguard its Russian-speaking population in the east, where the Kremlin has had forces deployed for three decades. This same pretext was used in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. The ISW believes that Russia does not have enough battalions in the area to launch an attack against the city of Odessa, and cannot benefit from reinforcements because they lack access to the areas that are under their control. A study by the Brussels-based think tank CEPS claims that there are nearly 1,500 Russian soldiers deployed on a stretch of land of around 400 kilometers along the eastern bank of the Dniester River. A third of them are there as keepers of the peace, and the rest are there to watch over the Cobasna arsenal, one of the biggest in eastern Europe.

If Russia were to recognize Transnistria, which officially calls itself the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, it would allow separatists there to seek additional protection from the Kremlin. Getting Transnistria involved in the conflict would let Russia launch attacks from that territory, and would increase tensions between Moldova and neighboring Romania, which is a member of NATO. While Moldova is not a member, it is a close collaborator and regularly attends meetings.

The Russian general Rustam Minnekayev said last week that Moscow is targeting the vital centers of the Ukrainian economy and wants access to Transnistria, where he claims there have been cases of oppression against the Russian-speaking population. The ISW has warned that Russian and Transnistrian forces on Wednesday accelerated preparations for potential operations. And Ukrainian intelligence sources cautioned that they could be preparing a missile strike in order to blame it on Kyiv. A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted before the start of the invasion foresaw the possibility of a Russian conquest of a strip of territory connecting Crimea (which Russia annexed in 2014) with the Donbas region of Ukraine and Transnistria.

Russian forces are trying to surround Ukrainian defensive lines in the east, according to UK intelligence reports. Russian advances from Izyum in the north and Mariupol in the south would squeeze the Ukrainian fighters who have been repelling the invader for weeks on the Donbas front. Moscows ground operations have barely secured any new territory in the last 24 hours, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Ukrainians easternmost defensive position is near the town of Severodonetsk; if the Russians manage to fully encircle them from behind, they will be trapped and unable to receive supplies.

The city of Kreminna has reportedly fallen and heavy fighting is reported south of Izyum, as Russian forces attempt to advance towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east. Ukrainian forces have been preparing defenses in Zhaporizhia ahead of a potential Russian attack from the south, said the UK Defense Ministry in its update.

Area recovered

by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

The ISWs daily report drew attention to May 9, the day when Russia will hold a Victory Day parade to observe the 77th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. This red-letter day on the Kremlins calendar could be behind the renewed ground attacks against the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, the last remaining stronghold of resistance in the port city. The ISW notes that Russian officials in charge of the operation might feel that the strategy of besieging the plant may not be enough to starve out the defenders ahead of May 9.

In the south, Ukrainian defense forces conducted counterattacks to take back control of an area between the city of Kherson, which is under Russian occupation, and Mykolaiv. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support Russias main effort in eastern Ukraine, said the ISW.

In western and central Ukraine, Russian troops conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations. The strikes, which took place within the space of an hour, killed at least one person and injured more than 40 in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and Zhytomyr oblasts. Ukrainian military commanders said the attack sought to disrupt Western weapons supplies to Ukraine.

The self-proclaimed authorities in the separatist region of Transnistria, (Russias occupied territory in Moldova), said that a government building in the capital, Tiraspol, was attacked on Monday with grenade launchers. Before dawn on Tuesday, two relay antennae were destroyed. No victims were reported in either case. Ukrainian authorities depicted the incident as a false flag attack conducted by Russian forces. Moscow said the new goal of its offensive in Ukraine was also to gain access to this Moldovan region located along the border with southern Ukraine, and which has been trapped for years in the Cold War. Russia has not recognized its independence and keeps around 1,000 soldiers in the area in charge of watching over old munitions deposits dating back to Soviet times.

The Russian offensive in Ukraine, focused for weeks in the southeast, has barely altered the frontline in recent days. Small, scattered operations throughout the Russian control line have allowed the invading forces to make very limited gains for example near Severodonetsk, a city of 100,000 residents in eastern Ukraine. In the past week, the Russians have gained around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) north of Melitopol, in the south. The ISW believes that the Kremlins troops are still incapable of launching a decisive offensive operation, as they have failed to make a technical stop to regroup the units that withdrew from the north.

Area recovered

by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

In Mariupol, Russian forces continued to put a stranglehold on combatants and civilians who took refuge at the Azovstal steel plant, which was targeted throughout Sunday. The Russian strategy of besieging the plant means that many troops are focused there and cannot be sent elsewhere on missions such as advancing towards the north to isolate Ukrainian soldiers who continue to hold out in the Donbas region, said UK intelligence reports.

Ukrainian defense sources cited by the ISW said the invading forces appeared to be preparing an attack on the steel plant, because the Kremlin wants to show off its capture of Mariupol on May 9, when it is scheduled to hold a Victory Day military parade to observe the defeat of Nazi Germany 77 years ago.

Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelenskiy on Sunday received a visit from US State Secretary Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Authorities announced that the US embassy will reopen in Kyiv.

English version by Susana Urra.

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The Ukraine war in maps: Attacks in Transnistria fuel fears that Russian aggression may spill over border - EL PAS in English

Indonesian President Joko Widodo says both leaders invited suggesting a compromise was reached despite pressure to bar Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been invited to the G20 summit in November, which will be attended by his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, according to the leader of host nation Indonesia.

I have invited President Zelenskyy to attend the G20 summit, said President Joko Widodo, suggesting a compromise had been reached following Western pressure to bar Russia from the event in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin confirmed in a phone call with Widodo he would participate in the summit, due to take place on Bali island, the Indonesian president said in a live-streamed address.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that while Russia was preparing for this years G20 summit in Indonesia, it has not yet decided whether Putin will attend in person or virtually.

Russia is a G20 member, while Ukraine is not.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, now in its ninth week, Indonesia has faced fierce pressure from Western countries, led by the United States, to exclude Russia from the summit.

But the Indonesian government had insisted that, as the host, it must remain impartial, while US President Joe Biden had suggested Ukraine could take part.

Zelenskyy had announced in a tweet that he was invited to the summit by Indonesia on Wednesday, following a call with Widodo.

The war in Ukraine has reduced cities and towns in rubble, killed thousands of people if not more and displaced millions from their homes.

More than five million people, mostly women and children, have been forced to flee abroad. Several rounds of negotiations have failed to reach a breakthrough, while a ceasefire remains elusive in the face of heavy fighting in Ukraines eastern and southern regions.

The rest is here:

Ukraines Zelenskyy invited to G20 summit to be attended by Putin - Al Jazeera English

One British and one American citizen have been killed in Ukraines war against Russia this week.

Scott Sibley, identified as a 36-year-old military veteran by British media, is believed to be the first Briton to die fighting in the conflict.

"We can confirm that a British national has been killed in Ukraine," a Foreign Office spokesperson told AFP on Thursday without officially confirming his identity.

The Foreign Office added that a second British national is missing, saying we are urgently seeking further information.

Separately, CNN reported on the death of former U.S. Marine and private military contractor Willy Joseph Cancel at age 22 on Monday.

He wanted to go over because he believed in what Ukraine was fighting for, Cancels mother Rebecca Cabrera said Thursday.

Cabrera said Cancel had agreed to be deployed in Ukraine when the private military contracting company he had worked with was searching for contractors. CNN did not identify the company.

Cabrera said Cancel had crossed into Ukraine from Poland sometime between March 12 and March 13 and fought alongside a group of men from all different countries.

The State Department said it was aware of these reports of Cancels death but declined to comment further due to privacy considerations.

After Russia invaded his country on Feb. 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for foreigners to volunteer to fight alongside Kyiv's forces.

As many as 20,000 foreign volunteers have reportedly traveled to Ukraine to fight in the countrys so-called international legion against Russian forces.

Russia is believed to be holding captured British soldiers Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin.

Britain and the United States have warned their citizens against taking part in the conflict andU.S. President Joe Biden has maintained that he would not send troops to fight Russia on the side of Ukraine.

The Defense Department on Friday reiterated its warning to Americans against going to Ukraine to join the fight against Russia's invasion.

"We continue to urge Americans not to go to Ukraine... this is an active war zone, this is not the place to be traveling to," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told CNN the day after reports emerged of Cancel's death.

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Briton and American Killed in Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Malcolm Nance, MSNBCS former military and counter-terrorism expert, is always fighting someone.

As a personal and professional acquaintance of Nance, I wasnt the least bit surprised when the literary agent to whom I had introduced him a few months ago, interrogated me about whether I knew that Nance had joined the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine in March.

I had no idea, I replied, extremely unshocked. But it sounds exactly like something Nance would do. Its the most Malcolm thing ever.

Whether jousting with his conservative critics on social media or battling the trend toward authoritarianism that has invaded American politics, Nance has spent most of his life defending the values he endorses. He participated in US combat operations, taught Survival, Evasion, Resistance (Sere) and created advanced programs for the US military. His 20 years of experience in intelligence, counter-terrorism and cryptology as a chief petty officer in the United States navy made him one of the most sought-after intelligence experts in the media. Although his books Defeating Isis and The Plot to Hack America presaged Putins invasion of American elections and Ukraine, Nance is not a war correspondent or a pundit.

When I interviewed him about his recent decision to take up arms in Ukraine, the telephone conversation was typical of our many conversations.

First, let me ask you, as a journalist, not as a friend: what the hell, Malcolm?

Well, what made me decide to do this was a couple of things. But the precipitating event of course, was the invasion of Ukraine. I spent a month in Ukraine, driving around, mapping out the Russian order of battle, driving up and down the highways and analyzing where the invasion routes would come and go. So I knew the country backward and forwards by the time of the invasion. In fact, on the day of the invasion, just by happenstance, I got on the last Lufthansa flight out of the country. A couple of hours later they had leveled the airport.

Plus, Im a widower, which means I understand grief, which is a powerful motivator in this instance. It was the thought of all of the grief this country was taking in that invasion. And I just thought, this is, this was completely uncalled for, this is insanity. To think that I could go to bed and wake up, and these women would just be massive piles of dead bodies and body armor, it just upset me.

So how did you make this happen? Did you just show up with a gun and say: Im here to help?

[Laughing] Ukraine announced that there was an international force on February 27 and I started looking into it on February 28 I called the Ukrainian embassy in Washington and I said: Hey, I want an appointment. They were a little slow, so I just went down there and put in my application. The guy asked if I had combat experience and I said Yep. Then he looked at my application and said, Youre on the team.

How long has it been since you were in a combat zone?

When was the last thing I did, when did I go to Iraq? I moved back to the States in 2016. So 2015, so seven years. When you guys go: Oh yeah. Thats what Malcolm would do, you have to understand that Malcolm maintains his weapons proficiency all the time. Im a collector of firearms and, because I was an intelligence contractor, I just have it in my mind to maintain my proficiency. Im that kind of guy.

Despite the fact that Russian television put my name, face and everything I say on television (except the part about mass murdering civilians) and called me a soldier of fortune, this aint about money. We get paid $600 a month. But I believe in the defense of democracy. Even though my rightwing critics dont believe me or the lies they tell, I actually believe in the things that I espouse on television.

One of the criticisms leveled against you is that you are willing to fight for an army that has been accused of mistreating people of African descent and serving an international training ground for white supremacists.

The Ukrainian army is 250,000 people who are mostly white and mostly male. You know where I can actually show you more Nazis? Aside from the US army, that is? Russias Wagner Group is filled with Nazis. The leader of their group of mercenaries has all sorts of Nazi tattoos all over his body. Look, this is a country of 42 million Caucasians, so, statistically, the US probably has a bigger Nazi contingent. I traveled around this country with Terrell Starr and the Afro-Ukrainian community here and Ive seen fewer Nazis than Ive seen in America.

Quick aside on that, I always mention that Eugene Bullard was the first Black pilot to fly in the first world war. But he flew with the Lafayette Flying Corps for France because, as an African American, he wasnt allowed to fly in his country. In the end, 269 Americans flew in that squadron. He was the only Black pilot. From 1914 to 1917, he was a French legionnaire fighting in Verdun and was wounded three times. So there is a tradition of African Americans fighting in defense of democracy. Im sure we could find some in the Spanish civil war, but Hemingway didnt write about that. African Americans have always fought for the freedom of others, even when they didnt have it themselves.

But I know there is a lot of criticism. And to be honest, what upsets them the most is that Im Black. Its not about how we view the rest of the world. Its about how we view ourselves in that world as free people. And thats what upsets them the most. People have a problem with believing African Americans have ideals and that we stand for what we believe. When you compare the percentage of African Americans in the country to the percentage in the armed forces, we fight disproportionately for the country.

So when you wake up in the morning, what happens?

Well, it depends on where I am and what Im doing. I get up at 4am because I like to be up early. Theres a routine depending on where you are. I get up at four and what I do is I read, I read the news. I try to feel the battlefront based on Ukrainian news and reporting. And then I look at expert analysis from the previous night in the west. If we have PT, we do PT [physical training]. No matter where I am, no matter what Im doing, I constantly check my gear. If Im in a safe house on a press junket, like I am now, I go over all of my gear. I reorganize my pack. I assume that I will have to take everything, get up and run with it or move to a forward location.

Right now, part of my duty is to the press. They were well aware that I was a high-level asset. So, instead of putting me out on the line, Im in a safe house talking to people like you.

For people who are totally ignorant of how the military works, is this legion part of the Ukrainian army of people who are not Ukrainian citizens? Or is it a legion organized outside of the Ukrainian military?

What happened here early on is when Zelenskiy made this call, they started forming TDUs territorial defense units. TDUs were really just men in your neighborhood who, under the state of emergency, had to enlist and register as part of a territory. Its like every neighborhood in Chicago organizing a military unit in expectation of an invasion.

The difference is, the International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine is a branch of the Ukrainian army. We are an organized combat element with contracts signed by the Ukrainian army. We are paid by the Ukrainian army and get a Geneva convention ID card. So if a brigade has five battalions and they are on the line and they need more enforcement, they will get a legion unit to give them more manpower. But the legion operates almost exclusively in English, although theres a French squad that generally operates in French, and some Japanese and Koreans also.

What do you think your ultimate value is here?

My ultimate value is that I have experience at this. Now, look, Im not an infantry guy. But despite what critics on Twitter who watch Rambo may think, combat isnt about being a murdering, Seal Team Six assassin; its mainly about precision, accurate fire, selective fire, keeping people calm, getting on the line and moving forward. For almost 15 of my 20 years, my middle name was, I need a Black guy who speaks Arabic. When I was at NSA, I was being loaned out everywhere, so Ive seen a lot and conducted missions behind or near enemy lines. If I was a white guy, I would be a hero. But with some people, its just as simple as: You are Black; you cant have done anything exceptional in your life, nothing. They cant imagine that Im here for altruistic reasons.

And this might explain why Eugene Bullard was in the French Foreign Legion and not the US army. There are a lot of African Americans and young Americans who have been in the military who are gonna see this and are gonna be inspired: this is essentially the French Foreign Legion, and it will be part of the pantheon of the defense of democracy in the defense of Ukraine My dad was one of the first Black master chiefs in the navy. This is just who I am. Im African American, but by God, Im American.

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Malcolm Nance, TV pundit turned fighter in Ukraine: I believe in the defense of democracy - The Guardian US

Ukraine's defense against Russia is being supported by billions of dollars in military aid from NATO countries. One of the most capable and expensive weapon systems supplied is the FGM-148 Javelin, a U.S.-made anti-armor weapon that costs about $176,000 each.

"We don't know where and when the next kinetic war will be, and producing new weapons, surging production lines takes time," said Cynthia Cook, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This may be a time where we might want to think about how we invest in increasing the inventory of precision-guided weapons and other weapons and missiles."

Although the Javelin has been lauded by the Ukrainian government, the actual effectiveness of the weapon system remains hard to independently verify outside of anecdotal accounts from the battlefield.

"We don't have folks on the ground, and I think that is a policy decision that we should reconsider," said U.S. Rep. Mark Waltz, R-Fla., a former U.S. Army Green Beret. "We could help them be actually more effective if we had advisors alongside, but we'd have to do that in very small numbers very selectively, and very quietly."

Watch the video above to find out what the Javelin is, how it it used and what it will take for the U.S. to produce more of them.

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How this U.S.-made, $176,000 anti-tank weapon could change the war in Ukraine - CNBC

WASHINGTON The House on Thursday overwhelmingly passed legislation that would allow President Biden to use a World War II-era law to quickly supply weapons to Ukraine on loan, sending the measure to Mr. Bidens desk hours after he urged Congress to approve tens of billions of dollars worth of additional emergency aid for Kyiv.

The 417-to-10 vote to invoke an extraordinary, eight-decade-old law created to battle Hitler reflected a growing bipartisan sense of urgency in Congress to bolster the Ukrainian military as it digs in for an ugly and protracted artillery war in the south and east of the country. The Senate passed the legislation unanimously this month.

Passage of that act enabled Great Britain and Winston Churchill to keep fighting and to survive the fascist Nazi bombardment until the United States could enter the war, said Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland. President Zelensky has said that Ukraine needs weapons to sustain themselves, and President Biden has answered that call.

The legislation invokes the Lend-Lease Act of 1941, originally proposed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt to help arm British forces battling Germany. The legislation allowed the president to lease or lend military equipment to any foreign government whose defense the president deems vital to the defense of the United States.

Roosevelt initially faced skepticism from isolationist members of Congress who worried the bill would plunge the United States more directly into the conflict, and he worked feverishly to win public support for the measure.

And so our country is going to be what our people have proclaimed it must be the arsenal of democracy, Roosevelt said after signing the bill into law. By the end of the war, the United States had extended nearly $50 billion in Lend-Lease aid to Allied nations, according to the Library of Congress.

Members of Mr. Bidens administration have offered little in the way of hints as to how aggressively they might seek to use the law. John F. Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, demurred on Wednesday when asked about the administrations view of the measure, saying he would not get ahead of pending legislation.

Still, it could become an important tool for the White House as the United States looks to marshal long-term military support for Ukraine, even as the streams of Western weapons flowing into the country including heavy-duty equipment such as howitzers and armed drones increase.

It would allow the United States to deliver arms to Ukraine more speedily by doing away with a variety of procedural hurdles. And it would essentially allow the Biden administration to gift vast tranches of arms to Kyiv, at a time when Mr. Biden has said he has nearly exhausted the emergency military funding Congress approved in March.

Russian oil embargo. European Union countries are likely to approve a phased embargo on Russian oil, sealing a long-postponed measurethat has divided the blocs members and highlighted their dependence on Russian energy sources. The ambassadors expect to give their final approval by the end of the week, E.U. officials said.

On the ground. After a period of relative quiet, Russian rockets slammed into Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The barrage hit an empty weapons factory and a nearby apartment building, and Kyivs mayor said one person was found dead under the rubble.

How we address a threat against one democracys sovereignty sends a message about how well act on others, and adversaries like China are watching, said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and one of the bills original sponsors. If we believe America supports freedom and democracy, we must provide Ukraine with the weapons necessary to protect its citizens.

Mr. Biden on Thursday asked Congress for $33 billion in additional defense, economic and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. The funding, more than twice the size of the $13.6 billion package Congress passed last month, is projected to last for at least five months, according to an administration official who detailed the package on the condition of anonymity before its official release.

Roughly half of that figure is expected to fund new military assistance.

Emily Cochrane contributed reporting.

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Congress Clears Bill to Allow Lending Arms to Ukraine - The New York Times

Today, we released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks weve observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what weve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. We believe its important to share this information so that policymakers and the public around the world know whats occurring, and so others in the security community can continue to identify and defend against this activity. All of this work is ultimately focused on protecting civilians from attacks that can directly impact their lives and their access to critical services.

Starting just before the invasion, we have seen at least six separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch more than 237 operations against Ukraine including destructive attacks that are ongoing and threaten civilian welfare. The destructive attacks have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities. The attacks have not only degraded the systems of institutions in Ukraine but have also sought to disrupt peoples access to reliable information and critical life services on which civilians depend, and have attempted to shake confidence in the countrys leadership. We have also observed limited espionage attack activity involving NATO member states, and some disinformation activity.

As todays report details, Russias use of cyberattacks appears to be strongly correlated and sometimes directly timed with its kinetic military operations targeting services and institutions crucial for civilians. For example, a Russian actor launched cyberattacks against a major broadcasting company on March 1st, the same day the Russian military announced its intention to destroy Ukrainian disinformation targets and directed a missile strike against a TV tower in Kyiv. On March 13th, during the third week of the invasion, a separate Russian actor stole data from a nuclear safety organization weeks after Russian military units began capturing nuclear power plants sparking concerns about radiation exposure and catastrophic accidents. While Russian forces besieged the city of Mariupol, Ukrainians began receiving an email from a Russian actor masquerading as a Mariupol resident, falsely accusing Ukraines government of abandoning Ukrainian citizens.

The destructive attacks weve observed numbering close to 40, targeting hundreds of systems have been especially concerning: 32% of destructive attacks directly targeted Ukrainian government organizations at the national, regional and city levels. More than 40% of destructive attacks were aimed at organizations in critical infrastructure sectors that could have negative second-order effects on the Ukrainian government, military, economy and civilians. Actors engaging in these attacks are using a variety of techniques to gain initial access to their targets including phishing, use of unpatched vulnerabilities and compromising upstream IT service providers. These actors often modify their malware with each deployment to evade detection. Notably, our report attributes wiper malware attacks we previously disclosed to a Russian nation-state actor we call Iridium.

Todays report also includes a detailed timeline of the Russian cyber-operations weve observed. Russia-aligned actors began pre-positioning for conflict as early as March 2021, escalating actions against organizations inside or allied with Ukraine to gain a larger foothold into Ukrainian systems. When Russian troops first started to move toward the border with Ukraine, we saw efforts to gain initial access to targets that could provide intelligence on Ukraines military and foreign partnerships. By mid-2021, Russian actors were targeting supply chain vendors in Ukraine and abroad to secure further access not only to systems in Ukraine but also NATO member states. In early 2022, when diplomatic efforts failed to de-escalate mounting tensions around Russias military build-up along Ukraines borders, Russian actors launched destructive wiper malware attacks against Ukrainian organizations with increasing intensity. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Russian cyberattacks have been deployed to support the militarys strategic and tactical objectives. Its likely the attacks weve observed are only a fraction of activity targeting Ukraine.

Microsoft security teams have worked closely with Ukrainian government officials and cybersecurity staff at government organizations and private enterprises to identify and remediate threat activity against Ukrainian networks. In January of this year, when the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center (MSTIC) discovered wiper malware in more than a dozen networks in Ukraine, we alerted the Ukrainian government and published our findings. Following that incident, we established a secure line of communication with key cyber officials in Ukraine to be sure that we could act rapidly with trusted partners to help Ukrainian government agencies, enterprisesand organizations defend against attacks. This has included 24/7 sharing of threat intelligence and deployment of technical countermeasures to defeat the observed malware.

Given Russian threat actors have been mirroring and augmenting military actions, we believe cyberattacks will continue to escalate as the conflict rages. Russian nation-state threat actors may be tasked to expand their destructive actions outside of Ukraine to retaliate against those countries that decide to provide more military assistance to Ukraine and take more punitive measures against the Russian government in response to the continued aggression. Weve observed Russian-aligned actors active in Ukraine show interest in or conduct operations against organizations in the Baltics and Turkey all NATO member states actively providing political, humanitarianor military support to Ukraine. The alerts published by CISA and other U.S. government agencies, and cyber-officials in other countries, should be taken seriously and the recommended defensive and resilience measures should be taken especially by government agencies and critical infrastructure enterprises.Our report includes specific recommendations for organizations that may be targeted by Russian actors as well as technical information for the cybersecurity community. We will continue to provide updates as we observe activity and believe we can safely disclose new developments.

Tags: cyberattacks, cybersecurity, Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center, Russia, Ukraine

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The hybrid war in Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft

The Russia-Ukraine war is far from the first time DJI has has come under fire for policy decisions. But the Shenzhen-based drone giant is trying its best to stay away from any implication that it might be taking sides in the on-going conflict. Following calls to halt sales in Russian, the firm issued a statement titled DJI Reassesses Sales Compliance Efforts In Light Of Current Hostilities, which announces a suspension of business in both countries, pending [ ] review.

The full statement is as follows,

DJI is internally reassessing compliance requirements in various jurisdictions. Pending the current review, DJI will temporarily suspend all business activities in Russia and Ukraine. We are engaging with customers, partners and other stakeholders regarding the temporary suspension of business operations in the affected territories.

The company, which became a favorite target of the Trump administration, has been working to avoid accusations that its been favoring any one side in the conflict. Ukraine officials have, however, previously implied that the company might have intentionally sabotaged its products. For its part, DJI has insisted that its products are not sold for military purposes.

Earlier this month, the company issued a statement reiterating the message, noting in part, Our distributors, resellers, and other business partners have committed to following it when they sell and use our products. They agree not to sell DJI products to customers who clearly plan to use them for military purposes, or help modify our products for military use, and they understand we will terminate our business relationship with them if they cannot adhere to this commitment.

In March, the company responded to a statement from Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, on Twitter, noting that it would set up geofencing upon request. The company was also quick to point out that a determined drone pilot could easily circumvent such restrictions. Please be aware that geofencing is not foolproof, the company wrote, and if the user does not connect to the internet to update the geofence data, the new geofence will not take effect for the drone.

Such a statement does highlight some bigger issues with current drone safety systems, military use or no.

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DJI suspends sales in Ukraine and Russia - TechCrunch

Around 8,000 British soldiers are due to be sent to eastern Europe to take part in military exercises designed to combat Russian aggression.

The deployment - which is one of the largest to take place since the Cold War - will see troops placed in countries from Finland to North Macedonia.

Dozens of tanks and more than 100 armoured fighting vehicles will also be sent to the locations this summer under plans that have been bolstered since the war in Ukraine began.

Live updates on Ukraine war as Russia bombards Kyiv during UN chief visit

The armed forces will be joined by tens of thousands of troops from NATO and Joint Expeditionary Force allies, which include the likes of Denmark, Iceland and Norway.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the planned exercises will improve the ability of UK and Finnish troops to work alongside each other, "deterring Russian aggression in Scandinavia and the Baltic states".

Key developments:

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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the move will show "solidarity and strength".

"The security of Europe has never been more important. These exercises will see our troops join forces with allies and partners across NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force in a show of solidarity and strength in one of the largest shared deployments since the Cold War," he said.

"Operating across Europe, the British Army will stand alongside partners, combining our capabilities and shared values, promoting peace and security."

Read more: The city that's been attacked since day one where defiant residents hide underground

The UK deployment is expected to build to a peak of around 8,000 personnel operating in mainland Europe between April and June.

Some of the exercises are set to involve parachute drops, helicopter-borne air assaults Challenger 2 tanks.

The drills aim to "showcase the scale and significance of the British Army's contribution to the defence of Europe", the MoD added.

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Troops from B Squadron of the Queen's Royal Hussars have deployed to Finland this week to take part in an exercise, while in May the Royal Welsh Battlegroup and the Royal Tank Regiment will conduct an exercise on the Estonia-Latvia border.

Also in May, 1,000 soldiers from the King's Royal Hussars Battlegroup and C Squadron of the Light Dragoons will be deployed for exercises in Poland, supported by 104 Theatre Sustainment Brigade operating from the UK and bases in Europe.

Another exercise which began this week sees elements of 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team and 1 Aviation Brigade Combat Team deployed in North Macedonia.

Commander Field Army Lieutenant General Ralph Wooddisse explained: "The UK makes a significant contribution to the defence of Europe and the deterrence of Russian aggression. The British Army's series of exercises is fundamental to both.

"The scale of the deployment, coupled with the professionalism, training and agility of the British Army, will deter aggression at a scale not seen in Europe this century."

Exercises alongside American troops are also taking place in Poland.

Western powers are attempting to show their support for Ukraine is not waning

Political correspondent

The Ministry of Defence says this is one of the largest military deployments since the Cold War and they are blunt that this is about showing solidarity and strength - no prizes for guessing who the intended audience is.

These exercises are to deter Russian aggression, to deter Vladimir Putin from entering a new conflict.

We understand that the military exercises the UK is involved in will peak between now and June, with 8,000 British army troops involved.

But if you count all of the troops from all of the NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force countries together, then we are talking about tens of thousands of armed forces personnel.

Of course this comes as Joe Biden has asked Congress for $33bn (27bn) for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

Western powers here are attempting to show their support is not waning as the conflict enters its third month.

Ukrainian capital comes under attack after meeting between Zelenskyy and UN secretary-general

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv has continued to come under fire, with at least one person killed and several others injured during a strike on Thursday night.

Rescue officials said some civilians were trapped beneath rubble after the Russian attack, which came shortly after a meeting between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Subscribe to Ukraine War Diaries on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify and Spreaker

Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the Shevchenkivskyi district, in the northwestern part of the city, was hit twice, causing fires in at least two high-rise buildings.

Explosions have also been reported in Chernihiv, which is near the border with Belarus, and Fastiv, in the central part of the country.

Ukrainian authorities also reported intense Russian fire in the Donbas - the eastern industrial heartland that has become a key target for Russia.

Earlier on Thursday, a Ukrainian military official said Russian forces were "exerting intense fire" as they continued the second phase of their invasion.

Former British soldier killed in Ukraine as second Briton reported missing

It comes after a British military veteran was reported to have been killed in Ukraine while fighting Russian forces.

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Tributes have been paid to 36-year-old Scott Sibley, who is the first British national confirmed to have died in the war.

A second British man, who Sky News has chosen not to name, has been reported as missing in Ukraine after travelling there to fight.

At the beginning of the war, Ukraine's government urged volunteers from across the world to come and help support its armed forces as they took on Russia's invasion.

Originally posted here:

Ukraine war: Thousands of UK troops to be sent to Europe in bid to combat Russian aggression - Sky News

Several weeks into Russias invasion of Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn singled out Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky as an enemy of the Hungarian nation. In the current crisis, Orbns criticism of Ukraine and fierce opposition to further sanctions against Russia stand out during a rare moment of apparent E.U. unity in support of Ukraine. The Hungarian governments overt admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, even after Russias annexation of Crimea in 2014, is unique in the European Union. In 2015, Orbn stated I dont want to live in a Europe that conducts a new Cold War against Russia and which makes the Europeans enemies of the Russians. As an illiberal, populist E.U. member state, Hungary has long played on divisions between East and West, its leader courting Putin and campaigning against Brussels. Despite Orbn acting as the vocal poster boy for anti-liberal sentiments, the countrys economy is overwhelmingly dependent on the European Union and Hungary consistently complies with E.U. sanctions on Russia. In fact, the strongest resistance to further sanctions on Russia including a European embargo on Russian energy is not Hungary but Germany and other larger economies that hide behind Hungarys inflammatory rhetoric. These divisions enable Hungary to continue weakening the European Unions liberal agenda while enjoying the perks of membership, and theres no reason to foresee this changing in the near future.

Hungarys Eastern Opening

Upon taking office in 2010, Orbn introduced the Eastern Opening economic policy, intended to attract investment from non-Western markets. Observers emphasized the surprising overture towards Russia, but the main target of the policy was increased Chinese investment. During this period, many European countries were also courting China a growing economy in a time of global recession and China was seeking to expand its trade relations with Europe and its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Indeed after 2010 both the volume of trade between Hungary and China, and Chinese investment in Hungary, increased. A flagship of this new economic relationship is a 20-year 1.5 billion Chinese loan to construct a railway between Budapest and Belgrade. Recently Orbn and Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic took the inaugural journey, waving at non-existent passersby ahead of their respective elections. Though Chinese investment has risen throughout the region, China has invested more in Hungary than any other country in the European Unions Central and Eastern European region.

The most controversial non-Western relationship that Orbn has cultivated is with Putin. Orbn ran on a platform of making utilities more affordable, and so securing cheap energy supplies was a major priority for his administration. When Hungarys long-term gas contract with Gazprom expired in 2015, Putin personally went to Budapest to sign a new sweetheart gas deal that flew in the face of regional, European priorities to decrease energy dependence on Moscow. Orbn and Putin also signed a deal for Russias nuclear-energy giant Rosatom to finance and build a new nuclear power plant at Paks. Orbn also critiqued E.U. sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the annexation of Crimea, arguing that Europe shot itself in the foot by alienating Russia.

Cultivating close relations with China and Russia is key to Orbns mobilization strategy. As an illiberal populist, Orbn mobilizes his base with anti-Western and anti-European Union sentiment. Orbn is speaking to Hungarians who feel let down by the promise of European accession. While overall the quality of life in Hungary improved after it joined the European Union, the gap between Hungary and its Western neighbors on the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments Better Life index and GDP per capita remain significant and, moreover, many rural voters have not enjoyed the same opportunities as the liberal elite in Budapest. For Orbn, China and Russia offer an alternative to the Western liberal democracy that he blames for stymieing Hungarian greatness. In an infamous 2014 speech, Orbn expressed his admiration for the illiberal model of governance:

Today, the stars of international analyses are Singapore, China, India, Turkey, Russia. And I believe that our political community rightly anticipated this challenge. And if we think back on what we did in the last four years, and what we are going to do in the following four years, then it really can be interpreted from this angle. We are searching for (and we are doing our best to find, ways of parting with Western European dogmas, making ourselves independent from them) the form of organizing a community, that is capable of making us competitive in this great world-race.

Despite the attention that Orbn pays to non-Western leaders and their highly visible diplomatic ties, there is no substitution for the European Union in Hungarys economy: Neither Russia nor China is key to Hungarian economic interests. E.U. states are almost the sole investor in the Hungarian economy, with an 89 percent share of Hungarian foreign direct investment. Within the European Union, Germany is by far the biggest investor in Hungary and manufacturing for German firms makes up a significant portion of Hungarian industry. German auto manufacturing in Hungary accounts for 28.8 percent of all Hungarian exports. China is a minor investor in Hungary and Russia barely makes the list. Similarly, Hungary trades predominantly with E.U. members. A quarter of its trade imports and exports are with Germany alone. Russia and China are almost insignificant trade partners.

Hungary Versus Ukraine

Orbn was recently reelected in another landslide election. In his victory speech on April 4, Orbn celebrated his triumph over Hungarys many enemies, claiming:

This victory will be remembered for the rest of our lives because so many people ganged up on us, including the left at home, the international left everywhere, the bureaucrats in Brussels, all the funds and organizations of the Soros empire, the foreign media, and in the end even the Ukrainian president.

Immediately after the election, he communicated privately with Putin on Telegram. Given Russias brazen aggression in Ukraine and the allegations of atrocities and widespread war crimes by Russian soldiers, Orbns actions have been widely criticized, even by his closet illiberal ally, Polands deputy prime minister and leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jarosaw Kaczyski. But Orbns words are consistent with his behavior throughout his long tenure in office. The relationship between Hungary and Ukraine has been strained for years. As the champion of Hungarian minority rights outside Hungary, Orbn threatened to block Ukraines further integration with Europe over a 2017 Ukrainian law restricting the use of minority languages in Ukraine, including Hungarian. Some observers viewed Orbns focus on ethnic Hungarian rights as a pretext, suspecting that the real motivation was Orbns close relationship with Putin.

Orbn was also suspected of turning U.S. President Donald Trump against Ukraine during a 2019 meeting that Trump took against the wishes of his national security advisor John Bolton and Fiona Hill. During the meeting Orbn offered a negative assessment of Zelensky and called Ukraine semi-fascist. According to several sources, this meeting affirmed Trumps hostility towards Ukrainians, whom he characterized as terrible people who tried to take me down during the 2016 election.

Moreover, Orbn has always goaded the European Union with strong anti-Western rhetoric, but has ultimately complied with European policies. The most notable example is Hungarys consistent compliance with the E.U. sanctions regime against Russia both after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the February invasion.

Gazprom Versus the European Union

Until now, Orbn was never forced to choose sides between the European Union and his non-Western allies. Although Orbn was heavily criticized for acting as an agent of Moscow within the European Union, Hungary was never the key actor shaping E.U. policy toward Russia. The most important voice on Russia policy has always been Germany. Both Hungary and Germany vetoed a 2015 E.U. energy security proposal to make gas contracts more transparent, which would have facilitated E.U. energy unity by increasing the bargaining power of the European Union as a bloc in negotiations with Russias Gazprom. For years, Germany has cultivated a far more extensive trade relationship with Russia than Hungary, and even in the current conflict, Germany is the most significant roadblock to an energy embargo against Russia. Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated the German position that an embargo on Russian oil would trigger a recession in Germany and beyond.

Germany is not alone in its reluctance to implement a further sanctions regime against Russia, the effects of which will be keenly felt at home. Although Germanys belief that economic interdependence would lead to energy security has been much criticized especially by Poland and the Baltic states who had long warned of the dangers of energy dependence on Moscow Austria also rejects sanctions against Russian oil and gas. Vienna is also highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and in fact Austrias OMV was the first Western firm to conclude an agreement to import Soviet natural gas in 1968. Austrias pro-Moscow economic policies have flown under the radar for decades now, with the leadership in Vienna preferring to stay quiet while Brussels rebuked Hungary, and Eastern European states shamed Germany. Frances far right has notorious connections to Putins Russia, Italy deepened its energy dependence on Moscow under Silvio Berlusconi, and even Finland pursued a Russian-built nuclear power project after 2014. The harsh reality is that while Hungary is the only E.U. member to praise Putin and attack Zelensky, a number of prominent E.U. member states also have complicated energy and economic ties with Russia that make taking a hard line on sanctions a difficult political calculus.

Foreign policy toward Russia is not the only issue on which Hungary diverges from the liberal position. Most notably, Hungary vocally opposed E.U. refugee quota policy, eventually stymieing a joint migration policy altogether. Like on most issues of European foreign policy, Hungary was not alone in its resistance it led a coalition of countries that refused to take refugees, like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland. Even more significantly, though Germany was leading the liberal effort to meet the challenge of the 2015 refugee crisis, most other countries in the European Union did not follow. Here too, anti-refugee mobilization is associated with Hungary, but Orbn was simply the loudest voice on the matter. These are not singular examples. Orbn consistently uses illiberal rhetoric to mobilize domestic support and court non-Western states. This rhetoric weakens the liberal agenda, sows divisions in the European Union, and lends support to other radical-right actors in Europe. Hungary gets away with this damaging behavior because it is acting in areas where European interests diverge.

The European Union Versus Hungary

The European Union has other reasons to want to isolate Hungary: For years the Orbn regime has been degrading Hungarian rule of law and democracy. Upon taking office, the Orbn-controlled parliament wrote a new Hungarian constitution without any input from the opposition or civil society. The new constitution re-imagined Hungary as a conservative, Christian nation at the expense of liberal democratic values. To accompany the legal revolution, the Orbn regime embarked on a full-scale attack on the judicial system, and in particular the constitutional court. Reforms included retroactively reducing the retirement age for judges in an effort to change the composition of the court, significantly limiting the right to bring suits to the court, and changing court procedures to limit the power of the institution. This process significantly weakened the court, so that it could no longer serve as a check on government power.

As part of the concentration of political power and the elimination of checks and balances, the Orbn government transformed the Hungarian media landscape. Foreign-owned outlets that did not kowtow to the government were taxed out, and owners of domestic outlets were replaced by Orbns cronies. This has led to effective government control over print and broadcast media in Hungary. One implication of this is the inability of the opposition to frame the political debate. This was evident in the recent election, where the main opposition candidate received little media time. In addition, the media presented only the governments narrative of the war on Ukraine: that Orbn was a cautious leader trying to prevent Hungary from being dragged by Zelensky into a costly war. Orbns longstanding alliance with Putin did not take center stage. The judiciary and media were only two of the many liberal victims of the Orbn regime. Freedom House no longer considers Hungary a democracy.

In response to the degradation of democracy and the rule of law, the European Union used the European court system to prosecute the Hungarian state. These attempts have mostly been ineffective. In some cases, the Hungarian government rescinded particularly egregious policies, but only after the damage was done. In 2018 the European Commission opened an Article 7 procedure against Hungary, which may be triggered when a country breaches the European Unions fundamental values including democracy and the rule of law. Article 7 requires four-fifths of member states to find the state guilty of violations to move to the next step, where a consensus vote is required to deny voting rights and impose sanctions. This is a very high bar, especially since Poland, an illiberal ally of Hungary, is also accused of violating E.U. law and, since 2017, also faces an Article 7 procedure. Recently there have been increased efforts to sanction violations of E.U. law by tying the disbursement of COVID-19 relief funds to upholding rule of law practices. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union managed to withhold the disbursement of these funds to Hungary on these grounds.

The invasion of Ukraine has shifted alignments within the European Union: Poland, previously a poster child for illiberal behavior alongside Hungary, is now a crucial member of the anti-Russian alliance. Hungary, on the other hand, is being ostracized by its closest allies for its ties with Russia, and both Poland and the Czech Republic cancelled their participation in a scheduled meeting of the Visegrad countries (a cultural and political alliance they are part of along with Hungary and Slovakia). While this isolation of Hungary could help to unify the European Union on sanctions, it may not be enough. Poland and Hungary are now on opposite sides of the Russia debate, but they still share very important interests vis--vis the European Union. Sanctioning Hungary will leave Poland vulnerable to sanctions for similar violations, and Poland is thus unlikely to support any E.U. efforts that require a unanimous vote.

Russias war on Ukraine has united the European Union and NATO as they have not been in decades. In this context, Hungary is a bad actor and stands out as the only E.U. member state openly unaligned with the Western cause. Putins actions have rendered Russia so toxic that even Orbn has toned down his pro-Kremlin rhetoric over the past few weeks, expressing his preferences in less inflammatory terms. But there are other divisions within the European Union that hinder unified action in favor of Ukraine. Hungarys influence is limited compared to that of larger states like Germany. Moreover, as long as the European Union remains divided on both key foreign policies and on common values, Hungary can get away with playing both sides.

Hadas Aron, Ph.D., is a faculty fellow at the Center for European and Mediterranean Studies at New York University. Previously, she was a fellow in the political science department at Tel Aviv University, the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, and a visiting fellow at Central European University. Her research focuses on populism, nationalism, and international security, and European politics. Her work has appeared in Party Politics, Nations and Nationalism, Newsweek, Duck of Minerva, and The London School of Economics United States Politics Blog. Her work has been featured inthe New York TimesandVox.

Emily Holland, Ph.D., is an assistant professor in the Russia Maritime Studies Institute at the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Holland studies the geopolitics of energy, Russian and European foreign policy, U.S.-Russian relations, and populist movements in East-Central Europe and Russia. Her book project Poisoned by Gas elucidates the relationship between foreign policy, domestic politics, and the natural gas trade in Europe and the post-Soviet space. The views expressed here are hers alone and do not express those of the Naval War College, the U.S. Navy, or the Department of Defense.

Image: CC BY 2.0, Flickr user European Peoples Party

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Is Hungary Ukraine's Biggest Problem in the European Union? - War on the Rocks