Category Archives: Ukraine

For months a narrative has built - and been fed by Western intelligence - that Russia is struggling to achieve its primary objectives in Ukraine.

We saw a complete withdrawal from the north and west after a failed push on Kyiv, and a refocusing on the Donbas in the east, where fighting has at times resembled a stalemate.

But now momentum, at least in the short term, appears to be with Vladimir Putin's forces, according to analysts.

So is the war now heading in Russia's favour?

Sir Richard Barrons, a former head of Joint Forces Command, told Sky News: "I think in the short term that is so.

"Russia will feel it's sitting on now just a bit less than a quarter of Ukraine. It knows that Ukraine does not have the military capability to throw them out, and it will sense that there is some weariness in the world at bearing the consequences of this war."

Over the last week, Ukrainian forces have retreated from Severodonetsk - the largest remaining part of the Luhansk region that was under Kyiv's control. Luhansk is part of the Donbas.

Territory in the southern belt has also been consolidated - but while militarily there has been progress, Moscow is aware that "strategically" it will lose that war, says Sir Richard.

"It's been isolated from the international community," he said.

"It's a pariah state. Its economy will shrink by maybe 15% this year. And if Ukraine is enabled to re-equip and re-arm, then Ukraine will reverse the military tide in due course, and start to throw the Russians out.

"And so for Russia, probably timing is everything here."

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He said the Russian capture of Severodonetsk is a "tangible victory" but a stiff fight awaits in nearby Lysychansk, the last major Luhansk city still held by Ukrainian troops.

"Russians should in no way think they're going to advance further into the Donbas without paying a really heavy price in terms of the young people that they lose and the equipment that gets destroyed," Sir Richard said.

"And they'll know that their capacity to take all of the Donbas is going to be limited just because of the quality of the Ukrainian resistance."

The importance of capturing Severodonetsk

Defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke also said the Russian capture of Severodonetsk is "symbolically significant".

"It's the city that gives Russia the northern part of the Donbas," he said.

War at a 'critical point'

Former chief of the general staff General Lord Richard Dannatt also appeared on Sky News to offer his analysis of the war in Ukraine.

Asked about an attack on a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, which has killed at least 18 people, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin was a "terrorist".

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"This is a crucially critical point," he said.

"There will come a time in the not too distant future when the Russians will have got control of those two Donbas provinces, which is what their strategic game currently is.

"Now, the West can tell the Russians they've got to go. The Russians will not go voluntarily and who is going to make them go?

"NATO is not going to launch an operation to throw them out. So there may be a new reality whereby part of sovereign Ukraine territory remains occupied by Russians for quite some time."

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Is Russia now winning the war in Ukraine? Experts have their say - Sky News

In early June, as the U.S. was rushing to provide financial and military support for Ukraine, reports said that four American-made Gray Eagle drones would be part of the package. These are armed drones that are larger than the well-known Predator drone, which became a symbol of the global war on terror. However, the planned sale of these few expensive, complex drones has run into some hurdles because of concern that they might get shot down and their sophisticated systems could fall into Russian hands.

While the Pentagon isnt elaborating on the status of the Gray Eagle sales, the overall challenge that Ukraine faces in using drones against Russia illustrates the limits of drone warfare. Over the past few decades, there have been many prophecies about how drones will transform our lives, from stories about drones making pizza deliveries to discussions about drone swarms that could be used to overwhelm enemies in combat.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it put a renewed spotlight on the use of armed drones in conventional wars: The world saw how armed drones might work when both countries have them and both have air defenses that can shoot them down. Previously, countries that had a plethora of drones generally were fighting wars against insurgents or groups/countries that didnt have drones. This was the case with the U.S. experience in Afghanistan, for example.

Early reports from Ukraine said that Ukraines two dozen Turkish Bayraktar drones, a UAV that is smaller than the Predator, were able to take out Russian forces. One report praised these drones for changing the nature of warfare. However, now reports about the success of the Bayraktar in Ukraine have slackened. Its unclear whether the drones are simply not operating near the new front lines in the Donbas, or whether they are running low on the missiles they use.

The nature of drone warfare is that it is clandestine; militaries dont acknowledge that their drones may not be working well. In a conflict where everyone has smartphones, if drones are being used someone probably will take videos of them. This is because drones tend to be loud, like a flying lawnmower, and you can often see or hear them from the ground. The Associated Press reported that a video posted online on June 22 showed an alleged Ukrainian kamikaze drone flying into a Russian refinery.

Western countries want to supply Ukraine with armaments and a variety of drones are on the shopping list, including kamikaze drones such as the small Switchblade made in the U.S. These wont turn the tide anytime soon. In eastern Ukraine, where fighters in Kyiv face a tough battle with Russian troops, the limits of drone warfare appear to be on display. Conventional weapons, such as masses of artillery, are wreaking havoc. With only a few complex armed drones, Ukraine cant afford to use or lose its drones.

The era of the drone hasnt arrived because countries that use them often dont deploy enough of them, or are afraid to lose them in battle. In conflicts where they have been used, such as in Libya, they didnt turn the tide. Despite widespread employment, drones didnt stop the Taliban in Afghanistan. One can blame wider political policies for this result, asserting that countries simply havent given drone operators free rein to use them successfully.

Nevertheless, the current limitations on use of drones in war is related to the supply of drones and operating guidelines for their use. To wage a large-scale drone war, the countries that use them need more than a few armed drones and they need to not fear losing some of them. The whole point of unmanned aerial vehicles is that they can be used for dull, dirty, dangerous missions, especially those in which a country doesnt want to risk sacrificing pilots.

Seth J. Frantzman is executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. A former assistant professor of American Studies at Al-Quds University, he covers the Middle East for The Jerusalem Post and is a Ginsburg/Milstein writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of Drone Wars. Follow him on Twitter @sfrantzman.

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Ukraine war shows limits of drone warfare - The Hill

The leaders of the world's wealthiest democracies, meeting in the Bavarian Alps, ended their annual summit on Tuesday vowing to do everything in their power to stop Russia from using energy as a weapon to profit from its invasion of Ukraine.

The G7 condemned Russia's missile strike on a crowded shopping mall in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, which killed as many as 18 people, as a war crime.

Canada stepped forward with a $200-million loan through the International Monetary Fund to help the government in Kyiv "meet its urgent liquidity needs."

Since the start of Russia's military action against Ukraine, Canada has committed $1.6 billion in loans and $1.3 billion in direct support to Ukraine, including $320 million in humanitarian assistance.

"It's important that the world doesn't lose its attention and focus over what's happening in Ukraine," said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "We must and we will remain committed until Ukraine and democracy prevail."

The leaders of the G7 have spent the last three days at a resort in the Alps south of Munich assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine on the world economy, including rising inflation, food and fuel prices.

They will reconvene on Wednesday in Madrid, Spain, under the NATO banner, where the Western military alliance is planning a significant increase in the number of troops it has on high readiness a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

It will also expand existing battle groups in eastern Europe, which were originally established five years ago to reassure Baltic allies in the wake of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

The decisions have the potential to be costly for NATO countries whose finances are reeling from inflation and energy shock.

Canada leads one of the existing battle groups in Latvia. Trudeau was non-committal when asked if the NATO decision means more troops.

"We, like others, are developing plans to be able to scale up rapidly, and those are conversations that I very much look forward to having over the next couple of days in NATO," he said.

WATCH | Trudeau discusses Canada's evolving NATO presence:

In their final communiqu, G7 leaders said they are "working to make sure Russia does not exploit its position as an energy producer to profit from its aggression at the expense of vulnerable countries."

They will continue to discuss ways to impose a price cap on Russian oil, an effort to starve the Kremlin's war machine.

India, whose prime minister attended the summit as an observer, has been buying discounted Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine. Trudeau met with Indian Prime Minister Nerendra Modi, but neither side has said what was discussed.

Energy security in Europe, which is trying to end its dependency on Russian oil and natural gas, was a major topic in bilateral conversations.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi signaled his interest in speaking with Trudeau about it.

"Canada is a big producer, and so the perspective of Prime Minister Trudeau is important," Draghi said, going into the meeting. "We're going to talk about this."

As they wrapped up, G7 leaders said that while they're taking action to address the current energy crisis, they have not given up on their "climate and biodiversity goals, including the energy transition" away from fossil fuels.

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As war in Ukraine grinds on, G7 vows to reduce Russia's energy leverage - CBC News

Today, Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, and Moldovan authorities brought together European and international partners to discuss the changing situation at the borders following the outbreak of Russias unjustified invasion of Ukraine.

In the aftermath, more than 6 million Ukrainian nationals have entered the EU since Russias unprovoked invasion in February. Countries neighbouring Ukraine are particularly affected by the those fleeing the war and crossing the border.

We are bringing together relevant authorities of the EU, Ukraine and Moldova to discuss challenges posed by the war and the strengthening of border management amid the unprecedented security crisis, said Frontex Deputy Executive Director Lars Gerdes.

Together we protect Europe, shoulder to shoulder, on the spot, he added.

Opening the conference, Moldova's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ana Revenco, underlined the need to consolidate the extended border of the European Union and anticipate threats to security: We have to build a trustworthy, resilient and sustainable ecosystem together to respond to the current challenges. Cooperation between the judiciary and law enforcement is key to protect people in need and ensure security.

Deputy Director-General of the European Commssion, Olivier Onidi, added: This conference is very timely, a few days after the EU formally recognised Ukraine and Moldova as candidate countries for the European Union.

Amid the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Ukraine, EU Member States and institutions are doing their utmost to quickly and efficiently support refugees, but also the affected neighbouring countries.

Organised in Chisinau, Moldova, the conference gathered representatives from law enforcement and border authorities of the Member States, EU institutions, and international organisations. Representatives of Ukraine also took part in the event, including General Serhii Deineko, Head of Border Guard Service of Ukraine, who told the audience how the Ukrainian border guards were helping defend the country.

During the event, the participants shared lessons learned from their respective operational responses to the war in Ukraine, including how to protect fundamental rights of those fleeing the war, as well as discussed the impact of the war on cross-border crime. Majority of the people fleeing Ukraine are women and children. This poses an increased risk of trafficking in human beings and the participants gathered during the event spoke about measures undertaken by EU and national authorities to counter this and other types of cross-border crime.

The measures undertaken by European Member States and institutions include operational support by Frontex, the introduction of the temporary protection mechanism by the European Commission and relocations of asylum seekers from Moldova to EU Member States.

Frontex launched its first operation in Moldova in March this year, following the signing of a status agreement between the EU and Moldovan authorities. The agency currently has 59 standing corps officers deployed to Moldova, who have helped the national authorities process the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Frontex has also deployed officers to other countries neighbouring Ukraine to support them with responding to the crisis.

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Frontex and Moldova host international conference on Ukraine and border security - Ukraine - ReliefWeb

For some Florida Guardsmen, leaving the troops they were training with in Yavoriv, Ukraine, was of one of the toughest moments of their military careers.

"Walking over to the Ukrainians and telling them we were leaving was painful," Army Col. Blake Glass, commander of the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Florida National Guard, said. "We are personally invested; these are our friends and partners."

But as Army Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau, saw during a recent visit here the Soldiers of the 53rd IBCT found renewed purpose after reuniting with their Ukrainian partners in Germany.

"Training with them again is a great way for us to stay involved," Glass said.

The 53rd IBCT deployed about 150 Soldiers last November for what they thought would be a longer rotation training with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

For four months, the Florida Guardsmen worked alongside AFU members to build defense capacity. But in February, as an unprovoked Russian invasion loomed, the soldiers were ordered to evacuate.

Among the last U.S. service members to leave, the soldiers of the 53rd IBCT shared hugs and sorrowful goodbyes with their Ukrainian counterparts.

Now, the 53rd IBCT known as Task Force Gator is assisting Ukraine troops who have come to Grafenwoehr, Germany, to train. Many of whom have since returned to the fight.

Grafenwoehr is the largest overseas U.S. military installation and home to 7th Army Training Command. There, the 53rd IBCT is working to provide continued logistics and training support as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine.

"You are here to provide the support and training they need to continue fighting for their independence and their country's sovereignty," Hokanson told a formation of Task Force Gator soldiers. "I can't thank you enough for providing that enduring support."

Assistance begins with providing immediate support to AFU members fresh off the frontlines: addressing medical issues, and providing clean beds and linens, boots and clothing. A Florida Guard chaplain and mental health counselor are also available to provide support to AFU members who have experienced trauma and lost family members and friends.

A larger part of U.S. support enhances AFU lethality by increasing its soldiers' familiarity with the weapons being delivered to Ukraine.

The Florida Guard and the 7th ATC, among others, have trained about 1,000 AFU members on weapon systems, including artillery such as the 155mm Howitzer, Glass said.

"We know when Ukrainian soldiers come through here they have a responsibility to train and get back as soon as they can," Glass said. "We want to take care of every one of their needs to ensure they can do just that."

Hokanson met with AFU members as a multi-component, multinational mix of personnel had just returned from live-fire training and were reorganizing for the next iteration of drills.

"I was impressed with the urgency of their training," Hokanson said. "It is highly focused. The Ukrainians are adept, capable and motivated."

He noted a potential challenge for Ukrainian soldiers: reading dials, instrument panels and digital screens featuring English text. While some AFU soldiers know the language, others do not. But that hasn't been a roadblock, Glass said.

"The help and training we're providing are a direct correlation to the success they're having," he said. "They have our numbers on speed dial. We can hear the guns firing while we're working through issues with them on the phone."

Many states' National Guards have built a close connection with Ukraine through the Defense Department's National Guard State Partnership Program. This Florida Guard unit is the eleventh National Guard element to rotate through JMTG-U since it was established in 2015. Soon, another unit will replace them.

"The National Guard and its State Partnership Program has been instrumental by providing that connective tissue throughout Europe to build and enable partner capacity, readiness and interoperability," said Army Brig. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, commanding general of the 7th ATC.

The National Guard has been building security partnerships for almost 30 years through the SPP, and the program now includes 93 nations around the globe. The SPP's value cannot be overstated, Hokanson said.

Germany was Hokanson's second stop on a five-nation trip to recognize and strengthen National Guard relationships with NATO allies and European partners.

"When Russia invaded, Ukraine's military leaders reached out to people they trusted people they had known for years and those were members of the National Guard," he said. "Ukrainians' first text messages were, 'We're being invaded.' Their second messages said, Here's what we need. '"

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Hokanson Visits Guardsmen Training With Ukraine Troops > US Department of Defense > Defense Department News - Department of Defense

In July 1942, things were bleak for the allies.

In the Pacific, the Japanese were ascendant and had captured Singapore, Malaya, and the Philippines. In Europe, the Nazis controlled much of the continent. And in Africa, the First Battle of Alamein was concluding with German General Rommel having pursued the retreating British Eighth Army across the Egyptian frontier.

Winston Churchill described this period as follows in his history of World War II: "The battle swayed back and forth until the end of the month, by which time both sides had fought themselves to a standstillI was politically at my weakest and without a gleam of military success."

Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might be excused for possessing such feelings of melancholy this week.

While the large-scale missile strikes over the weekend have been painful, much of his attention will remain on eastern Ukraine.

Since late April, the Russians have concentrated a majority of their combat power, including ground forces, artillery and air power, on the capture of the Donbas region. It has been a bitterly fought campaign on the Ukrainian eastern front. And while historical analogies are always fraught with danger, what we have witnessed has been neither World War I stalemate, nor a first Gulf War manoeuvre.

It has resembled, instead, the battles around the French town of Caen in the immediate wake of the Normandy landings. British and Canadian troops slugged their way through strongly contested German positions in the weeks after D-Day.

So too have we seen a slugfest on the ground in eastern Ukraine. The plucky Ukrainians, fighting against a larger Russian force with a significant advantage in artillery and air power, have slowly given ground in the Luhansk Pocket.

Centred on the city of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian defenders have been fighting the Russiansand wearingthem down as much as possible.

The Russians, using large forces of mercenaries and proxy forces, have only managed to advance in single digits of kilometres each week.

We may never know just how many Russians and Ukrainians have been killed in action or wounded. But, given Ukrainian casualty figures of 100-200 killed per day, we should expect it to be in the thousands.

The Ukrainian high command, while its soldiers fight and die in the east, have had to make hard decisions about the continued defence of Sievierodonetsk. There has been significant political pressure to stay in the city. At the same time, the Ukrainians needed their forces to stay long enough to cause enough destruction to Russian first echelon forces and reserves.

All along, the Ukrainians would have had a worst-case plan to eventually cede ground to preserve their combat forces. This is a very delicate balancing act at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. It demands superior decision making and courage from senior leaders. It can go very wrong for the defending force if the decision to withdraw is made too late.

This week, the Ukrainian High Command made the decision to withdraw its forces from Sievierodonetsk to previously prepared defensive positions further to the west. Ceding ground in the east by Ukraine is a tactical realignment.

It is not the same as"'Ukraine is losing the war", as some have cast the events of the last few weeks. It is simply part of war's nature, as humans seek to impose their will on each other. War has many twists and turns.

While the Ukrainians have been fighting in the south, east and north of Kharkiv, they have also been redeveloping their logistic system around the NATO model, and re-arming with long range fires. This will stand them in good stead for the fighting ahead. But it is an ongoing challenge.

If the Russians can close off the Luhansk pocket, it remains to be seen whether they have the reserves and logistic support to maintain their offensive momentum. They, like the Ukrainians, have been slogging it out here for some time combat exhaustion will start to tell. However, in using proxy forces and the Wagner Group mercenaries in Luhansk, the Russians may have been able to preserve other regular forces for subsequent offensives.

There are other challenges that the Russians will have to address in the short term. The Ukrainians in the east will be defending along a much shorter defensive line. And, Ukrainian advances in the south around Kherson will pose a dilemma about priorities for the Russians.

Even before the massive missile attacks over the weekend, it has been a grim week for Ukraine. But even the best military organisations sometimes have bad weeks in war. This is entirely normal. Remember, after Dunkirk came the liberation of Europe. And after the First Battle of Alamein came the Second Battle of Alamein, which was the beginning of the end of the Nazis in north Africa.

George Washington lost many of his battles, and gave up territory, but kept his Continental Army alive to eventually win the war (with the help of his French allies).

So too must the Ukrainians cede ground at times to win this war. Despite their enormous courage, the Ukrainians must not be drawn into an attritional fight with a Russian Army that prefers to fight this way.

This week's events have shown again that losing territory is bad for a country at war, but losing your army is fatal.

The Ukrainians have had a terrible week. But it is not the same as them losing the war.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

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Ukraine's 'tactical realignment' in the east isn't a sign it's losing the war against Russia - ABC News

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NATO is to blame for provoking the special military operation, as Vladimir Putin called his invasion of Ukraine. Washington helped Kyiv build secret biological weapons labs. Ukraine is defended by Nazis and the world supports Moscows efforts to liberate the country from a fascist regime.

These false narratives and conspiracy theories designed to bolster support for Putins war are to be expected inside Russia and from pro-Kremlin trolls online.

But while the threat from fake news is global, Bulgaria has becomeground zero for how such disinformation continues to proliferate largely unchecked inside the European Union.

A steady flow of pro-Russian views floods Bulgarias debate about the war. The Kremlins talking points are echoed by politicians, mainstream media, and pundits alike. As a result, the invasion has split public opinion, fuelling fears that democratic values are under threat in the EUs poorest country.

Bulgaria has been a target of systematic disinformation campaigns for years and those efforts are paying off now, said Goran Georgiev an analyst with the Sofia-based Center for Study of Democracy. Some Bulgarians unequivocally believe conspiracy theories and have lost trust in traditional media.

It is a concern not just to democracy campaigners but also to Bulgarias new government, formed last year under Kiril Petkov, whose campaign focused on cleaning up politics and fighting corruption.

To western European eyes, the examples of cascading conspiracy stories and the penetration of pro-Putin views are shocking. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Petkov had to sack his own defense minister who kept referring to the illegal invasion as a special operation, adopting Putins favored euphemism.

Popular public figures and media in Bulgaria disseminate pro-Russian stories from elsewhere, too. Take the case of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, where a small band of Ukrainian soldiers held out against the Russian siege for weeks until they eventually surrendered.

The pro-Kremlin Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda carried a version of events that portrayed the Ukrainian troops as Nazis. The article was then translated and reprinted in the Bulgarian tabloid Trud, a popular paper sympathetic to Moscow. It asserted the surrendering Ukrainian soldiers were found covered with tattoos of swastikas and quotes by Hitler and offered this as proof that Putin was justified in invading Ukraine parrotingdebunked claims that Ukraines military are made up of fascists.

The story itself was bad enough. But the article came to the attention of Bulgarian journalist and television host Martin Karbovski, who shared it with his 530,000 followers on Facebook. In a nation of 7 million people, he is one of the most popular personalities on the social platform.

In April, one of Petkovs coalition government partners nominated Karbovski for a role with Bulgarias media regulator overseeing public broadcasters and media pluralism. Karbovskis candidacy sparked outrage among the journalistic community in Bulgaria and within hours he withdrew his bid.

Karbovski portrayed himself asultimatelynot wanting tobecomea civil servant, accepting a job from those in power who had been his enemies.

According to Bozhidar Bozhanov, Bulgaria's minister of e-government, the problem is hard to fix. Bulgaria had a systemic weakness to Russian propaganda long before the start of the war, he said.

"The Kremlin uses troll factories, anonymous sites, and local media which they control in one way or another, Bozhanov told POLITICO. Like in other Eastern European countries, we can't simply shut several Russia-controlled media outlets and solve the disinformation problem.

The government's repeated efforts to force Facebook and other social media companies to take more steps to scrub Russian propaganda from their platforms have also largely fallen on deaf ears, Bozhanov told POLITICO.

Poland and Hungary have also struggled to deal with pro-Russia propaganda. But why is Bulgaria apparently so vulnerable? The answer is partly cultural.

Historical ties between Bulgaria and Russia run deep. Many Bulgarians speak Russian and therefore find it easy to access the Kremlin version of events. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was seen as an ally by many.

During the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish war, Russia defeated the Turks and brought an end to Ottoman rule in Bulgaria. Ever since, there has been a strain of thinking in Bulgaria that sees Russia as a liberator.

Media freedom in the country has been undermined for years. Bulgaria ended on the 91st place in the most recent Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index, coming from the 112th place last year, and the NGO still describes the state of media freedom in the country as "fragile and unstable. The few remaining independent publications are struggling to survive.

Only 10 percent of Bulgarians think that media in their country is independent but many are apparently still willing to believe what they read. One of the big problems in Bulgarian society is the lack of critical thinking, said Velislava Popova, editor in chief of the news site Dnevnik.bg. Bulgarians are more likely to trust false news and manipulations because we dont know to distinguish disinformation.

During the pandemic, conspiracy theorists sowed falsehoods around the world and found a particularly receptive audience in Bulgaria, where vaccine hesitancy rates were high.

Revival, an extreme nationalist party, capitalized on the COVID-19 conspiracies during last autumns election and transformed itself from a marginal voice to a political force represented in parliament. Now, the party is turning its attention to the war.

It has organized peace rallies where Kremlin views on the war were aired and Russian flags waved. Footage of Revivals events has been picked up by Russian media and presented as evidence of Bulgarian support for the invasion of Ukraine.

Revival's party leader Kostadin Kostadinov has around 270,000 followers on Facebook and he dominates political debate on the network. Facebook is still the most popular social media in Bulgaria, which is important because, according to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2021, close to 70 percent of Bulgarians get their news from social media.

In March a petition was launched calling for more transparency about how Facebook moderates its content content.We noticed an interesting trend profiles which said nothing wrong were blocked while those which were aggressive and supporting the war in Ukraine could not even be removed, said Martin Ossikovski, lecturer in media history at New Bulgarian University, behind the petition.

One possible explanation, Ossikovski said, is that Russian trolls are targeting specific profiles, reporting them in scores for allegedly breaking the social medias rules, and Facebook algorithms are automatically blocking them.

Facebook said it is fighting propaganda in consultation with authorities in Bulgaria. We are taking extensive steps to fight the spread of misinformation on our services in the region and are continuing to consult with outside experts and public administrations including in Bulgaria, a spokesperson for Facebooks parent company Meta said.

We're removing content that violates our policies, and working with third-party fact checkers in the region to debunk false claims. When they rate something as false, we move this content lower in Feed so fewer people see it. Were also giving people more information to decide what to read, trust, and share by adding warning labels on content rated false.

But the rot may be too deeply set-in. According to Ossikovski, the Bulgarian academic, Facebooks content moderation subcontractors could be working with young, unqualified, inexperienced employees who dont really know much about media ethics and are likely to be influenced by pro-Russian propaganda themselves. Even when posts that spread Moscows lies are reported to these moderators, they dont actually see them as problematic.

Theres one thing that could change all this: the war itself. Despite the profusion of propaganda, there are signs Bulgarian public opinion has shifted since the invasion began. Putins approval rating in Bulgaria was 32 percent in February, according to a poll of 1,000 people. By April, it had fallen to 25 percent.

Once Russia started shelling Ukrainian cities, said Georgiev, people instinctively started doubting the lies.

Mark Scott contributed reporting.

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Welcome to Bulgaria, where the Ukraine war is NATOs fault - POLITICO Europe

The ripple effects of Russia's audacious invasion of Ukraine will wipe out 15 years of economic gains by the end of 2023, a global banking trade group reported Wednesday.

The Institute of International Finance estimated the Russian economy will shrink by 15% this year and another 3% in 2023. Historically high oil and and natural gas prices have provided some protection from global sanctions, and the Russian central bank has raised interest rates and imposed capital controls to keep money from fleeing the country.

But the institute said the sanctions, partly by encouraging foreign companies to abandon Russia, are unraveling its economy, wiping out more than a decade of economic growth, and some of the most meaningful consequences have yet to be felt.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that sanctions have failed to deter Russia's military ambitions in his country. But sanctions have yet to reach the "top rung of the escalation ladder," the report says.

"Western allies could take additional steps in coming weeks and months to keep up pressure on the Russian government," the report says.

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President Joe Biden plans to visit European allies Germany and Spain in late June as he tries to hold together the coalition opposing Russias invasion of Ukraine.The White House said Biden will attend a Group of Seven summit June 25 in the Bavarian Alps and a meeting of NATO countries June 28 in Madrid.

Russia has restored fresh-water supplyfrom southern Ukraine to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a statement, a significant step toward Moscow's goal of connecting territory it controlsto the peninsula it annexed in 2014.

Almost 30% of Poles favor allowing Ukrainians fleeing the war to settle in Poland permanently and another 64% supportproviding protection until they can return home, according to a University of Warsaw survey.

Slovakias government has approved a long-term plan to modernize and to increase the number of troops in its armed forces. The NATO member with a population of 5.5 million people should have 22,000 service members by 2035, up from 14,100 this year.

The U.N.'s goal of ending extreme poverty globally by 2030 is taking a major hit from the war inUkraine, which has contributed to a steep rise in food and energy prices, according to a report the organization released Wednesday.

The report by the U.N. Global Crisis Response Group says the war has exacerbated a global cost-of-living crisis unseen in at least a generation. With much of the world still dealing with the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and climate change, the war has made conditions nearly untenable for millions of people not directly involved in it.

The wars impact on food security, energy and finance is systemic, severe and speeding up,U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

The U.N. is trying to arrange a deal that would allow grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea and unimpeded access to world markets for Russian food and fertilizers. Guterres said hundreds of millions of people in developing countries could face severe hunger without such an agreement.

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of weaponizing food supplies by preventing Ukraine from exporting more than 22 million tons of grain.This is a cold, callous and calculated siege by Putin on some of the most vulnerable countries and people in the world, she said.

The Ukraine military claims it routed an elite Russian regiment in the Donbas region amid conflicting reports on the fate of the crucial city ofSievierodonetsk.The "invaders" were trying to cut through a strategically important highway in eastern Ukraine when paratroopers from Ukraine's80th Brigade halted the advance, the brigade said in a Facebook post.

"The enemy has not gotten through!Units of the 80th separate paratrooping brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to inflict losses on Russian occupants," the post claimed."This 'striped elite' retreated, leaving in the forest the bodies of their dead."

The Russians made their own claims of success, saying they have restored railways, roads and a canal to connect territory they control in southern Ukraine with the Crimean Peninsula, which they illegally annexed in 2014.

The focus of the war has turned to the eastern Donbas, whichincludes the Luhansk and Donetsk territories. Russia claims to control 97% of Luhansk.Sievierodonetsk is one of just two Luhansk cities not yet completely under Russian control. Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai told the Associated Press thatmaybe we will have to retreat, but right now battles are ongoing in the city. Haidai suggested that positions across the river, in Lysychansk, could be easier to defend.

But in a social media post, Haidai wrote that "nobody is going to surrender Sievierodonetsk!"

A search of the bombed-out high-rises in the port city of Mariupol has yielded between 50 and 100 bodies in each, prompting workers to carry them to morgues and landfills in what a mayoral aide called anendless caravan of death.

Petro Andryushchenko said on the Telegram app that about two-fifths of the damaged buildings in the heavily shelled city have been searched.

Ukrainian authorities estimate at least 21,000 civilians were killed and hundreds of buildings destroyed during a weekslong Russian siege of Mariupol. Reports have surfaced of mass graves holding thousands of bodies.

Mariupol fell to the Russians in May, but not before several weeks of dogged resistance from fighters holed up in a sprawling steel mill that came to symbolizethe Ukrainian spirit of defiance against a larger foe.

The families of two British soldiers held captive and possibly facing executionat the hands of Russian separatists in Ukraine say the men are not mercenaries and should be treated as prisoners of war.

Aiden Aslin, 28, and Shaun Pinner, 24, had brief court appearances this week in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. They could face the death penalty if convicted on charges ofcommission of crime by a group, violent seizure of power or retention of power by force, mercenarism and training for terrorist activity.Both families say they are working with the British and Ukraine governments in hopes of winning release.

Denis Pushilin, president of the Donetsk People's Republic,told Russian TV the crimes they committed were monstrous."

"Aiden is a much-loved man and very much missed," his family statement said. "We hope that he will be released very soon."

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Wednesday that his nation was willing to provide security for a shipping corridor for Ukrainian agricultural products. An estimated 22 million tons of grains are sitting in silos in Ukraine, aggravating food shortages across much of the developing world.

Russia says commercial shipping could resume in the Black Sea if Ukraine removes mines from the area near the port of Odesa and pledged not to use any cleared corridor to attack Ukraine. Kyiv has voiced doubt about that promise.Ukrainian Grain Union chief Serhiy Ivashchenko said Wednesday it was the Russians whomined the area and that it would take 3 to 4 months to remove sea mines.

Turkey doesnt have enough power in the Black Sea to guarantee security of cargo and Ukrainian ports, he said.

Russia's relationship with Japan continues to deteriorate because of the war in Ukraine. A dayafter Japan agreed to increased military cooperation with NATO, Russia said it would suspend a dealthat allowed Japanese boats to fish in waters neardisputed islands in exchange for payment.

The fishing agreement in place since 1998 permits Japanese fishingaround the Russian-held Kurils, which Japan also claims and calls the Northern Territories. Japan has joined the U.S., theEuropean Union and others in imposing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, and the deal's suspension appears to be retribution for that and the closer military ties with NATO.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said it was regrettable that Russia one-sidedly announced it is suspending the cooperation in this manner.

WNBA star Brittney Griner remains locked in a Russian prison, her case tangled up with that of lesser-known AmericanPaul Whelan. He hasbeen held in Russiasince his December 2018 arreston espionage charges he and the U.S. government say are false. Whelan wasleft out of a prisoner exchange in Aprilthat brought home yet another detainee, Marine veteran Trevor Reed. That has escalated pressure on the Biden administration to avoid another one-for-one swap that does not include Whelan in favor of Griner, an Olympic gold medalist whose case has drawn global attention.

It's still very raw, Whelan's sister, Elizabeth Whelan, said of her brother being excluded from the Reed deal. And to think we might have to go through that again if Brittney is brought home first is just terrible.

Contributing: The Associated Press

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War will cost Russia 15 years of economic gains; UN says 'global cost-of-living crisis' worsening: Live updates - USA TODAY

BAKHMUT, Ukraine (AP) Workers pulled scores of bodies from smashed buildings in an endless caravan of death inside the devastated city of Mariupol, authorities said Wednesday, while fears of a global food crisis escalated over Ukraines inability to export millions of tons of grain through its blockaded ports.

At the same time, Ukrainian and Russian forces battled fiercely for control of Sievierodonestk, a city that has emerged as central to Moscows grinding campaign to capture Ukraines eastern industrial heartland, known as the Donbas.

As the fighting dragged on, the human cost of the war continued to mount. In many of Mariupols buildings, workers are finding 50 to 100 bodies each, according to a mayoral aide in the Russian-held port city in the south.

Petro Andryushchenko said on the Telegram app that the bodies are being taken in an endless caravan of death to a morgue, landfills and other places. At least 21,000 Mariupol civilians were killed during the weeks-long Russian siege, Ukrainian authorities have estimated.

The consequences of the war are being felt far beyond Eastern Europe because shipments of Ukrainian grain are bottled up inside the country, driving up the price of food.

Ukraine, long known as the bread basket of Europe, is one of the worlds biggest exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, but much of that flow has been halted by the war and a Russian blockade of Ukraines Black Sea coast. An estimated 22 million tons of grain remains in Ukraine. The failure to ship it out is endangering the food supply in many developing countries, especially in Africa.

Russia expressed support Wednesday for a U.N. plan to create a safe corridor at sea that would allow Ukraine to resume grain shipments. The plan, among other things, calls for Ukraine to remove mines from the waters near the Black Sea port of Odesa.

But Russia is insisting that it be allowed to check incoming vessels for weapons. And Ukraine has expressed fear that clearing the mines could enable Russia to attack the coast. Ukrainian officials said the Kremlins assurances that it wouldnt do that cannot be trusted.

European Council President Charles Michel on Wednesday accused the Kremlin of weaponizing food supplies and surrounding their actions with a web of lies, Soviet-style.

While Russia, which is also a major supplier of grain to the rest of the world, has blamed the looming food crisis on Western sanctions against Moscow, the European Union heatedly denied that and said the blame rests with Russia itself for waging war against Ukraine.

These are Russian ships and Russian missiles that are blocking the export of crops and grain, Michel said. Russian tanks, bombs and mines are preventing Ukraine from planting and harvesting.

The West has exempted grain and other food from its sanctions against Russia, but the U.S. and the EU have imposed sweeping punitive measures against Russian ships. Moscow argues that those restrictions make it impossible to use its ships to export grain, and also make other shipping companies reluctant to carry its product.

Turkey has sought to play a role in negotiating an end to the war and in brokering the resumption of grain shipments. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met on Wednesday with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. Ukraine was not invited to the talks.

Meanwhile, Moscows troops continued their painstaking, inch-by-inch campaign for the Donbas region with heavy fighting in and around Sievierodonetsk, which had a prewar population of 100,000. It is one of the last cities yet to be taken by the Russians in Luhansk, one of the two provinces that make up the Donbas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Sievierodonetsk the epicenter of the battle for the Donbas and perhaps one of the most difficult battles of the war.

He said the Ukrainian army is defending its positions and inflicting real losses on the Russian forces.

In many ways, it is there that the fate of our Donbas is being decided, Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address, which was recorded in the street outside his office in Kyiv.

An adviser to Zelenskyys office said Russian forces have changed their tactics in the battle, retreating from the city while pounding it with artillery and airstrikes.

As a result, Oleksiy Arestovych said, the city center is deserted, and the artillery hits an empty place.

They are hitting hard without any particular success, he said in his daily online interview.

Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai acknowledged the difficulties of battling Russian forces, saying, Maybe we will have to retreat, but right now battles are ongoing in the city.

Everything the Russian army has artillery, mortars, tanks, aviation all of that, theyre using in Sievierodonetsk in order to wipe the city off the face of the Earth and capture it completely, he said.

The city of Lysychansk, like Sievierodonetsk, is also wedged between Russian forces in Luhansk province. Valentyna Tsonkan, an elderly resident of Lysychansk, described the moment when her house came under attack.

I was lying on my bed. The shrapnel hit the wall and went through my shoulder, she said as she received treatment for her wounds.

Russias continuing encroachment could open up the possibility of a negotiated settlement between the two nations more than three months into the war, analysts said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has the option of declaring his objectives met at more or less any time in order to consolidate Russias territorial gains, said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the London think tank Chatham House. At that point, Giles said, Western leaders may pressure Ukraine to accept their losses in order to bring an end to the fighting.

Zelenskyy said Russia is unwilling to negotiate because it still feels strong.

Speaking by video link to U.S. corporate leaders, he called for even tougher sanctions to weaken Russia economically, including getting it off the global financial system completely.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to negotiate to find a way out. But a settlement cannot come at the expense of our independence.

Meanwhile, to the north, Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region killed five people and wounded 12 over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian authorities said.

The Russian military said it used high-precision missiles to hit an armor repair plant near Kharkiv. There was no confirmation from Ukraine of such a plant being hit.

___

Karmanau reported from Lviv, Ukraine. Associated Press journalists Oleksandr Stashevskyi, John Leicester and David Keyton in Kyiv, Ukraine; Andrew Katell in New York; and Sylvia Hui in London contributed to this report.

___

Follow APs coverage of the Ukraine war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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As war in Ukraine drags on, fears of global food crisis grow - The Associated Press

WASHINGTON As a new generation of western-made arms travels to Ukraines front-line forces, donor nations are assessing the risk of revealing sensitive technology to Russias military if the equipment is captured.

Such considerations have become more prevalent as Soviet-age stocks used in the fight dwindle and Ukrainian leaders request weapons with longer ranges and better combat punch, according to British defense officials, who spoke on condition of not being named due to the sensitivity of the subject.

The British government is a key driving force in coordinating international military aid to Ukraine.

Any weaponry that includes seeker and guidance components for targeting, as well as encryption algorithms, could give clues to Russian forces about how these arms work and, potentially, how to defend against them, said a British Embassy official here.

Technology trophies routinely change hands in modern war, and there have been reports of Ukrainian forces turning the tables and gleaning insight from Russian equipment seized on the battlefield. Whats new is that capture risk calculations are becoming more deeply embedded in new donation decisions, as a generational shift in the quality of the weapons flowing into Ukraine gets underway.

Nothing is limitless, said another British Embassy official, referring to Soviet-era equipment being ground up in the war. The amount of weapons being expended on a daily basis just to hold back Russia on the eastern flank in the Donbas is substantial.

Earlier this month, U.S. and U.K. leaders announced the transfer of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and M270 Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems, or MLRS, to Ukraine. The weapons are considered crucial in defeating long-range artillery pieces used by the Russians to slice deeper into the Donbas.

Given the American and British weapons ranges of 70-80 km, the systems are considered far enough away from the frontline to mitigate immediate capture risks. But losing sophisticated, shorter-range weapons like the British Brimstone missile, which features onboard target recognition technology, would be more worrisome, according to officials.

Photos of a Brimstone purportedly captured intact by Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine first appeared on Twitter in mid-May.

Meanwhile, Western defense leaders are expected to meet in Brussels next week to coordinate new arms donations to Ukraine. A naval version of the Brimstone missile, which manufacturer MBDA has marketed for some time, is being considered by the British to fill a crucial gap in Ukraines coastal defenses.

That mission has taken on global significance because Russian ships are blocking Ukraines ports, leaving 22 million tons of grain meant for export languishing in silos near the coast, according to the U.S. State Department. Russian ships have reportedly left the area with stolen grain by the hundreds of thousands of tons, agency spokesman Ned Price told ABC News.

At the last donor conference on May 23, the Danes agreed to supply Ukraine with U.S.-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles. But more is needed to beef up Ukraines anti-ship capabilities to be able to punch through the Russian blockade, said the second British official.

Especially when there has there been so much concern, even at the UN level, about the grain crisis, the official said. Thats significant, and its something we cant let go of and need to focus on more.

Sebastian Sprenger is Europe editor for Defense News, reporting on the state of the defense market in the region, and on U.S.-Europe cooperation and multinational investments in defense and global security. He previously served as managing editor for Defense News.

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The race to arm Ukraine highlights West's worry of losing tech secrets - DefenseNews.com