Category Archives: Ukraine

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Russia was poised Wednesday to formally annex parts of Ukraine where occupied areas held a Kremlin-orchestrated referendum on living under Moscows rule that the Ukrainian government and the West denounced as illegal and rigged.

Armed troops had gone door-to-door with election officials to collect ballots in five days of voting. The suspiciously high margins in favor were widely ridiculed and characterized as a bogus land grab by an increasingly cornered Russian leadership following embarrassing military losses in Ukraine.

Moscow-installed administrations in the four regions of southern and eastern Ukraine claimed Tuesday night that 93% of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87% in the Kherson region, 98% in the Luhansk region and 99% in Donetsk.

Forcing people in these territories to fill out some papers at the barrel of a gun is yet another Russian crime in the course of its aggression against Ukraine, Ukraines Foreign Ministry said, adding that the balloting was a propaganda show and null and worthless.

The Foreign Ministry asked the European Union, NATO and the Group of Seven major industrial nations to immediately and significantly step up pressure on Russia with new sanctions and by significantly increasing their military aid to Kyiv.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged the EUs 27 member countries to agree on a new package of sanctions on Russian officials and trade over the sham referendums. She labeled the ballots an illegal attempt to grab land and change international borders by force.

Pro-Russia officials in the four regions said they would ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to incorporate their provinces into Russia on the basis of announced vote results. Separatist leaders Leonid Pasechnik in Luhansk and Denis Pushilin in Donetsk said they were leaving for Moscow to settle the annexation formalities.

Western countries, however, dismissed the balloting as a meaningless pretense staged by Moscow in an attempt to legitimize its invasion of Ukraine launched on Feb. 24.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Washington would propose a Security Council resolution to condemn the voting. The resolution would urge member states not to recognize any altered status of Ukraine and include a demand for Russia to withdraw its troops from its neighbor, she tweeted.

The Kremlin remained unmoved amid the hail of criticism. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that at the very least, Russia intended to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Donetsk region, where Moscows troops and separatist forces currently control about 60% of the territory.

In an interview with The Associated Press, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was determined to reclaim all the territory that Russia has seized during seven months of war. At the same time, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak insisted that annexation by Russia would change nothing on the battlefield.

We will liberate our territory by military means, Podolyak said. And for us, our actions depend not so much on what the Russian Federation thinks or wants, but on the military capabilities that Ukraine has.

Russia is calling up 300,000 reservists to fight in the war and warned it could resort to nuclear weapons after this months counteroffensive by Ukraine dealt Moscows forces heavy battlefield setbacks. The partial mobilization is deeply unpopular in some areas, however, triggering protests, scattered violence and Russians fleeing the country by the tens of thousands.

The mobilization prompted the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to warn Americans in Russia to leave immediately because Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service.

Previous embassy security alerts issued during the war also advised Americans to leave, saying they could be harassed and have difficulty obtaining consular assistance.

Ukraines military and Western analysts said Russia is sending troops without any training to the front line.

In a briefing, the Ukraine militarys general staff said the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of Russias 1st Tank Army has received untrained new troops.

The Ukrainian military also said prison convicts are reinforcing the Russian lines. It offered no evidence to support the claim, although Ukrainian security services have released audio of purportedly monitored Russian phone conversations on the issue.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, cited an online video by a man who identified himself as a member of the 1st Tank Regiment, visibly upset, saying that he and his colleagues wouldnt receive training before shipping out to the Russian-occupied parts of the Kherson region.

Mobilized men with a day or two of training are unlikely to meaningfully reinforce Russian positions affected by Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south and east, the institute said.

The EU expressed outrage over the suspected sabotage Tuesday of two underwater natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany and warned of retaliation for any attack on Europes energy networks.

All available information indicates those leaks are the result of a deliberate act, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, although perpetrators have not been identified.

Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response, he said in a statement on behalf of the EUs members.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said allegations that Russia could be behind the incidents were predictable and stupid, saying the damage has caused Russia huge economic losses.

The war has brought an energy standoff between the EU, many of whose members have for years relied heavily on Russian natural gas supplies, and Moscow.

The damage makes it unlikely the pipelines will be able to supply any gas to Europe this winter, according to analysts.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense said Ukraines counteroffensive is advancing slowly, meeting a stouter Russian defense.

In the partially occupied Donetsk region Russian attacks killed five people and wounded 10 others over the last 24 hours, said Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the local military authority.

Authorities in the southern Ukrainian city of Nikopol said Russian rockets and artillery pounded the city overnight.

The city, across the Dnieper River from Russian-occupied territory, saw 10 high-rises and private buildings hit, as well as a school, power lines and other areas, said Valentyn Reznichenko, the head of the local military administration.

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Russia poised to annex occupied Ukraine after sham vote - The Associated Press

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed a fresh round of proposed sanctions on Russia designed to make the Kremlin pay for escalating the conflict in Ukraine. The proposed eighth package of biting sanctions includes a cap on the price of Russian oil and further curbs on hi-tech trade.

Politicians across Europe have warned that the suspected sabotaging of the two Nord Stream pipelines could herald a new stage of hybrid warfare targeting vulnerable energy infrastructure in order to undermine support of Ukraine. Norways prime minister, Jonas Gahr Stre, said his country would step up its military presence at Norwegian installations after the country became Europes largest supplier of natural gas.

A report drawn up by an international working group on sanctions concluded Russia should now be declared a state sponsor of terrorism and had reached the legal definition of a terrorist state under US and Canadian law. The head of the Office of the Ukrainian Presidency, Andriy Yermak, called for sweeping American and European sanctions in light of the report, after Ukraine accused Russia of sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea.

Moscow is poised to formally annex Russian-occupied regions after so-called referendums that have been denounced by the west. The Russian-installed leaders of the Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine have formally asked President Vladimir Putin to annex the occupied territories into Russia. Russias foreign ministry said action would be taken soon to meet the aspirations of four occupied Ukrainian regions to become part of Russia. Once annexed, Russias leadership has said it will consider attacks on the Russian-controlled areas as a direct attack on Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Ukraine will act to protect our people in Russian-occupied regions after the what he described as an imitation of referendums. Ukraines foreign ministry said Kyiv and its allies condemn such actions of Russia and consider them null and worthless.

Britains prime minister, Liz Truss, told Zelenskiy in a phone call that the UK would never recognise Russian attempts to annex parts of Ukraine, Downing Street said. The EUs foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, also denounced the illegal referenda and their falsified outcome in Ukraine.

Israel has strengthened its hitherto cautious stance on Russias invasion of Ukraine, saying it will not accept the results of the referendum in the eastern districts of the occupied country. Tuesday nights statement from the Israeli foreign ministry, which also said it recognises the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, has been received as an unprecedented show of support for Ukraine, and a rare Israeli rebuke to Moscow.

Gas prices have risen on fears that Russia could halt supplies to Europe through Ukraine, adding to turmoil caused by damage to the Nord Stream pipelines. The statement came after the discovery of leaks on the two Nord Stream gas pipelines near the Danish island of Bornholm in a suspected act of sabotage.

The Kremlin dismissed claims that Russia was behind the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, describing them as quite predictable and also predictably stupid. In a call with reporters, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the incident needed to be investigated and that the timings for the repair of the damaged pipelines were not clear.

Authorities in the Russian region of North Ossetia, which borders Georgia, are reportedly putting in place travel restrictions to prevent people fleeing to Georgia to avoid conscription. The report by the Moscow Times cites the head of the region, Sergey Menyaylo, as saying that more than 20,000 people had entered Georgia through the section of the border in just the past two days.

The US embassy in Moscow has issued a security alert and urged American citizens to leave Russia immediately. In a statement on its website, it warned that dual Russian-US nationals may be called up as part of the Russian governments mobilisation. US citizens should not travel to Russia and that those residing or travelling in the country should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain, it said.

The governments of Romania, Bulgaria and Poland are urging any citizens that remain in the Russian Federation to leave urgently. That may be in anticipation of border crossings becoming much more difficult as routes out close and more people flee forced mobilisation in Russia.

Russian authorities say they are establishing checkpoints at some of the countrys borders to forcibly mobilise Russian men seeking to avoid mobilisation by fleeing the country. Social media footage shows military vehicles moving toward the border, reportedly to establish the mobilisation checkpoint.

Russia is mounting a more substantive defence than previously as Ukraine attempts to press forward on at least two axes east, according to the UKs Ministry of Defence. Heavy fighting continued in the Kherson region, where the Russian force on the right bank of the Dnipro remained vulnerable, it said in its latest intelligence update.

Ukrainian authorities say they have identified five Russian soldiers who allegedly shot at civilian cars in the Kyiv region during the first days of the war. The Russian soldiers are charged with killing five people, and injuring a further six, who were trying to flee Hostomel on 25 February, a day after Russia invaded.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 218 of the invasion - The Guardian

Russias recent mobilisation resulted in tens of thousands of potential draftees protesting or fleeing for the countrys borders in the 31st week of the war in Ukraine, exposing dissent in Russian society and weakening President Vladimir Putin.

Just under 100,000 Russians crossed into Kazakhstan since the mobilisation announcement on September 21, the Kazakh interior ministry said three times the average weekly rate this year, which has itself been 70 percent higher than in previous years.

Georgia received some 10,000 Russians a day during the past week, its interior ministry said twice the daily rate before mobilisation.

The Finnish border guard reported that flows of Russians with European Union visas rapidly rose from about 3,000 Russian arrivals a day before September 20 to between 7,000 and 8,000 afterward.

Exiled independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta estimated the number of those who had fled Russia following the mobilisation at more than 250,000.

George Pagoulatos, director of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, a think-tank in Athens, told Al Jazeera that the exodus was a blow to Russias Putin.

[Putin] was hoping he could conclude this special military operation without having to rely on conscripts, and in a short time period. Now he has been forced to bring the war to Russian households, he said. This is the first moment we see the backlash on the part of public opinion.

At least 2,400 anti-war protesters were arrested in demonstrations across Russia, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. It was reported that many of those arrested were handed draft notices by the authorities.

First-year cadets at the Kuznetsov Naval Academy in St Petersburg protested when they were told they would be mobilised after just one months training, according to Ukraines military intelligence. The cadets have reportedly been moved from barracks and kept under surveillance to prevent them from contacting their parents.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said about 1,000 subpoenas had been issued to men of fighting age in Sevastopol, annexed Crimea, who were threatened with criminal prosecution if they failed to enlist.

Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, who has sent three battalions into Ukraine, has reportedly refused to mobilise further troops.

[Protests] are not negligible given the very hard regime [Putin] subjects protesters to we have seen people being beaten badly or disappearing, Pagoulatos said.

So these people are really taking a risk, which is another indication of the intensity of discomfort and anger that is accumulating in Russian society.

Putin has attempted to allay the anger of many Russian voters by recruiting intensively in poorer, non-Slavic republics.

Ukraines Centre for Countering Misinformation, a branch of the countrys National Security and Defence Council, said Russia was expending disproportionate mobilisation efforts in the non-Slavic republic of Buryatia, in Russias far east. There, the centre said, men aged 18-72 were being sent summonses, or drafted off the street. In the village of Kurumkan, 700 men were mobilised out of a total population of 5,500.

Minna lander, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, told Al Jazeera that the rate at which Russians were claiming asylum in Finland since mobilisation has jumped elevenfold and that the exodus has prompted a debate on humanitarianism versus security in many countries.

Germany seems to consider a simplified asylum procedure for Russian conscripts, while Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland view a large number of Russian draft dodgers as a potential security threat for two reasons: because not necessarily all of them actually oppose Putin (or even the war as such) and because Russia has a track record of using its citizens in other countries as a pretext for aggression against those countries, lander said.

So far, humanitarianism seems to be winning out on Russias borders.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said of Russian emigrants: Most of them were forced to leave by the desperate situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety. This is a political and humanitarian matter.

But Russia has potentially some 20 million reservists to call on, prompting the counter-argument that the draft pool in Russia is simply too large for the sheltering of draft dodgers to make a difference on the battlefield, says lander.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said newly drafted Russians had already arrived on the front lines, with little or no training something Ukraines General Staff also claimed.

Nonaligned countries joined the Western alliance in criticism of the war after Putins mobilisation. Indias Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jayashankar said, the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is a matter of profound concern for the international community, and insisted that egregious attacks committed in broad daylight should not go unpunished.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Alberto Franco Franca said the war endangers the lives of innocent civilians and jeopardises the food and energy security of millions of families in other regions.

Chinas Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed his countrys support of Ukraines territorial integrity in a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, an indirect criticism of Putins war.

World leaders gathering at the 77th UN General Assembly in New York City overruled a Russian objection to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy becoming the only world leader allowed to address the body remotely.

United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Putins mobilisation was a sign of weakness.

What Putin has done is not exactly a sign of strength or confidence; frankly, its a sign that theyre struggling badly on the Russian side, Sullivan said in an interview with the CBS news programme Face the Nation.

On September 27, Russia said the four Ukrainian regions it largely occupies Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson had voted overwhelmingly for annexation by Russia in referendums. The approval rates were in the 80th and 90th percentile, and turnout was well over 70 percent, said Russia.

European Union and US officials have called these sham referendums. They have said they will not recognise the results because the regions are under occupation and in a state of war.

Luhansk Governor Haidai said Russian pollsters were issuing passports in return for yes votes to a referendum on annexing the region to Russia.

In the devastated port of Mariupol, Ukraines military intelligence said that occupation officials went door-to-door, forcing households that received humanitarian aid to vote.

Ukraines Centre for Countering Misinformation also reported other irregularities. In Kherson, a single family member would typically be asked to fill in several ballots for absent family members. In Enerhodar, the city housing workers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, ballots were reportedly brought door-to-door by armed men and filled in at gunpoint.

Ukraines nuclear plant administrator, Energoatom, said plant workers were overwhelmingly against the annexation of the Zaporizhia region, so Russian troops (of whom there are 4,500 at the plant) dressed up as workers and mingled with the real staff during a shift change, speaking in favour of the Russian occupation to Russian media who were present. They then, reportedly, cast ballots in favour of annexation.

Throughout the week, Ukrainian counteroffensives continued to claw back territory. In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces moved well east of the Oskil River, creating enclaves of liberated settlements north and south of Lyman in the Donetsk region, and suggesting recapturing of the city is only a matter of time.

Ukraine also said it has liberated 59 settlements in the southern region of Kherson since the start of its counteroffensive on August 29.

Ukraines armed forces were continuing to corrode Russian fighting capacity by striking ammunition and equipment concentrations. Sometime between September 17 and 23, they destroyed two ammunition warehouses, they said, without specifying where.

On September 25, Ukraines forces in Kherson destroyed two ammunition warehouses and struck crossing points across the Dnieper River at Nova Kakhovka, Ukraine said.

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Russias mobilisation sparks backlash over its war in Ukraine - Al Jazeera English

Since Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been peeling military forces away from its bases in Northern Europe to plug gaps in its forces suffering high losses and battlefield setbacks against Ukrainian troops.

Of an original estimated 30,000 Russian troops that once faced the Baltic countries and southern Finland, as many as 80 percent of them have been diverted to Ukraine, according to three senior European defense officials in the region, leaving Russia with only a skeleton crew in what was once its densest concentration of military force facing NATO territory.

The drawdown weve seen from this region in the past seven months is very significant, said one senior Nordic defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters. Russia had this ground force posture facing us for decades that is now effectively just gone.

Since Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been peeling military forces away from its bases in Northern Europe to plug gaps in its forces suffering high losses and battlefield setbacks against Ukrainian troops.

Of an original estimated 30,000 Russian troops that once faced the Baltic countries and southern Finland, as many as 80 percent of them have been diverted to Ukraine, according to three senior European defense officials in the region, leaving Russia with only a skeleton crew in what was once its densest concentration of military force facing NATO territory.

The drawdown weve seen from this region in the past seven months is very significant, said one senior Nordic defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters. Russia had this ground force posture facing us for decades that is now effectively just gone.

The official stressed that Russias air power in the region hadnt changed and that Russias Northern Fleetthe crown jewel of its naval power, which is based in the Kola Peninsulahas remained relatively untouched. But Russia is moving other high-end military hardware, including antiaircraft systems and missiles, away from the region to Ukraine alongside its troops. Russia appeared to remove some S-300 antiaircraft systems from a protective ring around St. Petersburg, one of Russias largest cities that is near Finlands border, according to satellite imagery obtained by Finnish media outlet Ylethis month. One missile basing area in the region, manned by Russias 500th Antiaircraft Missile Regiment, appeared to be abandoned entirely, according to the satellite imagery.

The reasons are twofold and pretty simple, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas told Foreign Policy. These forces were used to generate sufficient combat power for the initial invasion in February. As Russian forces were sustaining heavy losses in theater, they had to be replaced [and] restored during the fight.

The new estimates on the changing ground forces shed light on how the invasion of Ukraine and Russias steep battlefield losses are altering the military map in Europe well beyond Ukraines borders. Now, defense officials across the Nordic-Baltic region are questioning how, and when, Russia could ever reconstitute its military forces along NATOs northeastern flank, particularly as Finland and Sweden stand poised to join NATO. Slovakia on Tuesday became the 28th NATO member to ratify Finland and Swedens NATO accession, leaving Turkey and Hungary as the final two countries in the bloc to approve the next round of NATO expansion.

Current and former U.S. and European defense officials who spoke to Foreign Policy stressed that Russia remains a long-term threat to the region, particularly to the small Baltic states, and that they expect Moscow to reconstitute its military strength in the Russian Western military district in the long run irrespective of how the war in Ukraine goes.

They threw almost everything they had at Ukraine, said Jonatan Vseviov, secretary-general of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But that is a very narrow way of analyzing threats. The immediate direct military threat [to the Baltic region] is obviously low at the moment because there are no professional troops at our borders. But that is not to say that Russia is not dangerous.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week announced a partial military mobilization of some 300,000 conscripts and issued veiled threats about using his countrys nuclear weapons should the West continue to send military aid to Ukraine. Many defense analysts in the West said Putin is likely posturing, but they agree the warnings underscore that Moscow remains a threat to NATO countries despite its costly military setbacks in Ukraine.

Russia is extremely dangerous, and the long-term danger of Russia will depend on the outcome of this war, he added. If it becomes the case that they get at least partially something they were after in Ukraine, then we predict extremely difficult times for all of us in Europe.

A significant number of the Russian forces pulled away from the region are in Russias 6th Army, which until recently had been responsible for fighting in the Kremlin-occupied Kharkiv Oblast that has been overrun by a lightning Ukrainian counteroffensive in the last month. The 6th Army is typically tasked with defending Russias border along with the Baltic States and Finland.

The redeployment of ground forces has been necessary because there is a desperate shortage of trained soldiers, wrote Harri Ohra-aho, an intelligence advisor to the Finnish defense ministry and the former uniformed chief of defense intelligence, in an email. It has nothing to do with the NATO threat (which hasnt existed except in the rhetoric of the Russian leadership).

Anusauskas, the Lithuanian defense minister, said a number of Russian units from the Kaliningrad Oblast, the small Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland, have also deployed to Ukraine. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia had around 12,000 ground and airborne troops in Kaliningrad and 18,000 ground and airborne troops, along with hundreds of tanks and other heavy military vehicles, in western Russia near the Baltic and Finnish borders, according to a publicly released assessment from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Two European defense officials estimated there could be as few as 6,000 of the original 30,000 Russian ground forces left in Kaliningrad and near the Baltic region. Although that number could change if Russia brings new conscripts into the fold to backfill its forces being ground down in Ukraine, those conscripts are likely to be severely undertrained and poorly equipped.

Today, the Russian threat to the Baltics is not what it was a year ago just because of how severely degraded the Russian forces are, said Jim Townsend, an expert at the Center for a New American Security think tank and former senior U.S. Defense Department official. But if youre a small Baltic country, you can never let down your guard just because Russia is not performing well today.

The U.S. Defense Department declined to say whether it had seen Russian units leaving Northern Europe. But Pentagon officials say the recently declared mobilization of Russian conscripts is another sign that the Kremlins war efforts are flailing in the face of stiff and effective Ukrainian resistance backed by Western armaments.

Russias troop mobilization is another sign that Russia is struggling to salvage its illegal occupation of Ukraine, wrote Pentagon spokesperson Robert Ditchey in an email. Our focus continues to remain on supporting Ukraine with security assistance as they defend their country.

U.S. President Joe Bidens administration has sent $15.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since his presidency began in January 2021, and it announced a new $1.1 billion package of military aid on Wednesday. Separately, Congress unveiled a plan to send an additional $12.3 billion of military and economic aid to Ukraine as part of an interim government funding bill expected to pass this week.

Russias grave troop shortages, which have forced Putin to declare a snap partial mobilization of Russian military reservists that appears to have stretched deep into Russian society, also forced the Kremlin to cobble together atypical units for ground combat in Ukraine. Several defense officials from the Baltic countries said Russias Baltic Fleet has sent its personnel into Ukraine as ground combat units because they are losing infantry with inordinately high casualty rates. Those officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

If and when Russia reconstitutes its forces along the Nordic-Baltic borders, it will face a new map of Europe, with Finland and Sweden both expected to join the alliance in the coming months. With [Finland and Sweden in NATO], we have acquired a strategic depth, said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks. We can turn the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake, and the possibility of any Russian attack from the sea, from the West, is no longer a risk. Our backyard is much safer with Finland and Sweden as allies.

Anusauskas agreed, saying the addition of Finland and Sweden to the NATO alliance is changing the whole geometry of the area of operations for both NATO and Russia. He added: It is a huge headache for Russia.

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Russia's Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine - Foreign Policy

Responding to the Ukrainian offensive that has liberated Kharkiv and thousands of square miles of territory previously occupied by Russia, Vladimir Putin has taken steps recently that, to many observers, reek of desperation. While his actions may indeed be desperate, it is likely a mistake to see them as an effort to reverse Russias sagging fortunes on the battlefield. Instead, Putins recent moves may be a signal to Ukraineand the rest of the worldof a potential end to the conflict.

In the last few days, Putin has ordered the mobilization of 300,000 Russian reservists and voting has begun in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaprizhzhia regions of Ukraine on whether these places should be annexed and brought under Russian sovereignty. These are dramatic moves but it remains unclear what Putin hopes to accomplish.

Hundreds of thousands of poorly trained, ill-motivated recruits are unlikely to make a difference on the battlefield, particularly when even the currently deployed forces lack top-of-the-line equipment. While annexing Ukrainian territory might bolster domestic support for the operation, it wont materially affect Ukrainian military operations. So what is Putin up to?

The newly press-ganged soldiers will not help Russia go back on the offensive, but their presence on the front lines will undoubtedly raise the costs for Ukraine of liberating the Donbas. Impending annexation also threatens to escalate the costs of war for Ukraine, as it increases the likelihood that Russia will fight to the last soldier to protect what would then be Russian soil. It also makes it more likely that Putin will authorize the use of tactical nuclear weapons in defense of newly Russian lands.

The question for Ukraine then becomes whether it can liberate these territories at an acceptable cost, one that includes not just Ukrainian soldiers but also Ukrainian and European citizens who will spend the winter freezing and possibly dying for lack of Russian natural gas.

If Ukraine calculates that the answer is no, then it must determine on what terms it is willing to end the war.

The impending Russian annexationfor there is no doubt about the outcome of the voteprovides a way out of war. Donetsk and Luhansk have been under Russian control, to greater or lesser degrees, since 2014. By contrast, since the early days of the war, Kherson and Zaprizhzhia have been only partially occupied by Russia. Furthermore, Kherson and Zaprizhzhia have significantly smaller ethnic Russian populations of about 20 percent each, compared to roughly 40 percent in Donetsk and Luhansk.

While the prospect of ceding territory is undoubtedly unappealing, all wars end in either total victory or compromise, and if Ukraine does not believe it can defeat Russia at an acceptable price, then it must compromise. The most logical compromise, suggested by the situation on the ground, would have Ukraine accepting Russian annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for Russian withdrawal from Kherson and Zaprizhzhia and an end to the conflict.

Such a compromise would not guarantee that Russia would refrain from launching another special operation in five or 10 years, but that problem could be solved by a side agreement between Russia and the western allies allowing Ukraine to join NATO and the EU (Ukraine has already been accepted by the European Council as a candidate for accession, although formal negotiations over Ukrainian membership have not started).

Would either side accept such a compromise? For the Ukrainians, it entirely depends on whether they think they can forcibly eject the Russians from occupied Ukrainian territory. It might be altogether impossible without new infusions of armor, such as American M1 Abrams or German Leopard tanks, which Western states have so far refused to supply. Such a deal requires Ukraine to accept the loss of a significant amount of territory. But Russian annexation would essentially legitimate only the situation on the ground as it has existed since 2014a reality that Ukraine has already demonstrated itself to be incapable of undoing.

Would Russia agree? Most analysts believe that Putin will not end the conflict in a way that he cannot portray as a victory. Annexing Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia accomplishes this by allowing Putin to claim that he has successfully defended and liberated tens of thousands of ethnic Russians. Accepting Ukrainian accession into NATO and the EU would be an especially bitter pill to swallow, but it may be an acceptable price for ending the conflict for control of the Donbas. Russian aggression has already succeeded in increasing NATOs unity and its scope and capabilities through the impending additions of Sweden and Finland; adding Ukraine hardly changes Russias strategic situation.

The odds of such an agreement ending the current conflict are low indeed. But unless Ukraine thinks it can crush the bulk of the Russian Army, it is not clear on what other grounds the war will end any time soon. It is, at the very least, worth a shot for American and Western diplomats to reach out to the leaders of both countries to find out whether some form of compromise is within reach. The alternative is months or years of grinding warand, in the end, quite possibly, the identical outcome.

Seth Weinberger is Professor of Politics & Government at the University of Puget Sound, where he researches and teaches international security, and an Academic Affiliate of the International Center for Law and Economics.

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A way out of the war in Ukraine? - The Hill

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Its 9pm in Kyiv. Heres where we stand:

Politicians across Europe have warned the suspected sabotaging of the two Nord Stream pipelines could herald a new stage of hybrid warfare targeting vulnerable energy infrastructure in order to undermine support of Ukraine. Norways prime minister, Jonas Gahr Stre, said his country would step up its military presence at Norwegian installations after the country had become Europes largest supplier of natural gas.

Moscow is poised to formally annex Russian-occupied regions after so-called referendums that have been denounced by the west. The Russian-installed leaders of the Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine have formally asked President Vladimir Putin to annex the occupied territories into Russia. Russias foreign ministry said action will be taken soon to meet the aspirations of four occupied Ukrainian regions to become part of Russia. Once annexed, Russias leadership has said it will consider attacks on the Russian-controlled areas as a direct attack on Russia.

Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, says Ukraine will defend its citizens in Russian-occupied regions after what he described as an imitation of referendums. We will act to protect our people: both in the Kherson region, in the Zaporizhzhia region, in the Donbas, in the currently occupied areas of the Kharkiv region and in the Crimea, he said in a video posted on Telegram.

Ukraines foreign ministry has said the propaganda show called referendums in the temporarily occupied territories is yet another Russian crime. Ukraine and its allies condemn such actions of Russia and consider them null and worthless, it said in a statement, which also called on the west to increase pressure on Russia, including by imposing new sanctions, and significantly increase military aid to Ukraine.

Britains prime minister, Liz Truss, told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a phone call that the UK would never recognise Russian attempts to annex parts of Ukraine, Downing Street said. Zelenskiy also tweeted about the call and said he expected Londons leadership in response to what he called the sham referenda in occupied parts of Ukraine.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced a fresh round of proposed sanctions on Russia designed to make the Kremlin pay for escalating the conflict in Ukraine. The proposed eighth package of biting sanctions includes a cap on the price of Russian oil and further curbs on hi-tech trade.

The EUs foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, also denounced the holding of illegal referenda and their falsified outcome in occupied parts of Ukraine. He also promised a robust and united response from the EU over attacks on energy infrastructure, describing damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 as not a coincidence and affect us all.

Israel has strengthened its hitherto cautious stance on Russias invasion of Ukraine, saying it will not accept the results of the referendum in the eastern districts of the occupied country. Tuesday nights statement from the Israeli foreign ministry, which also said it recognises the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, has been received as an unprecedented show of support for Ukraine, and a rare Israeli rebuke to Moscow.

Gas prices have risen on fears that Russia could halt supplies to Europe through Ukraine, adding to turmoil caused by damage to the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea. The statement came after the discovery of leaks on the two Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic near the Danish island of Bornholm in a suspected act of sabotage, although exactly by whom or why remains unconfirmed.

European leaders have said sabotage is the most likely cause of leaks in two Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Europe, after seismologists reported explosions around the Baltic Sea lines. German authorities reportedly fear the Nord Stream 1 could become unusable forever if leaks in the two lines are not repaired quickly. Swedens national police force has opened an investigation into leaks from the Nord Stream pipeline after authorities in Stockholm suggested the blasts were probably a deliberate act. Norways foreign minister, Anniken Huitfeldt, said the explosions and gas leakage in the Baltic Sea were of deep concern to the Norwegian government.

The Kremlin dismissed claims that Russia was behind the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, describing them as quite predictable and also predictably stupid. In a call with reporters, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the incident needed to be investigated and that the timings for the repair of the damaged pipelines were not clear.

Authorities in the Russian region of North Ossetia, which borders Georgia, are reportedly putting in place travel restrictions to prevent people fleeing to Georgia to avoid conscription. The report by the Moscow Times cites the head of the region, Sergey Menyaylo, as saying that more than 20,000 people had entered Georgia through the section of the border in just the past two days.

The US embassy in Moscow has issued a security alert and urged American citizens to leave Russia immediately. In a statement on its website, the it warned that dual Russian-US nationals may be called up as part of the Russian governments mobilisation. US citizens should not travel to Russia and that those residing or travelling in the country should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain, it said.

The governments of Romania, Bulgaria and Poland are urging any citizens that remain in the Russian Federation to leave urgently. That may be in anticipation of border crossings becoming much more difficult as routes out close and more people flee forced mobilisation in Russia.

Russian authorities say they are establishing checkpoints at some of the countrys borders to forcibly mobilise Russian men who are seeking to avoid mobilisation by fleeing the country. Social media footage shows military vehicles moving toward the border, reportedly to establish the mobilisation checkpoint.

Russia is mounting a more substantive defence than previously as Ukraine attempts to press forward on at least two axes east, according to the UKs Ministry of Defence. Heavy fighting continued in the Kherson region where the Russian force on the right bank of the Dnipro remained vulnerable, it said in its latest intelligence update.

Ukrainian authorities say they have identified five Russian soldiers who allegedly shot at civilian cars in the Kyiv region during the first days of the war. The Russian soldiers are charged with killing five people, and injuring a further six, who were trying to flee Hostomel on 25 February, a day after Russia invaded.

Thats it from me, Lonie Chao-Fong, and the Russia-Ukraine war blog today. Thank you for reading.

Russias foreign ministry has said action will be taken soon to meet the aspirations of four occupied Ukrainian regions to become part of Russia.

In a statement, the ministry claimed the votes in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine were held in compliance with international law.

It said:

In the nearest future, a crucial stage lies ahead in our joint actions to fulfil the aspirations of the residents (of the four regions) to be together with Russia.

Updated at 13.41EDT

Norways prime minister has said its military will be more visible at oil and gas installations as politicians across Europe warned the suspected sabotaging of the two Nord Stream pipelines could herald a new stage of hybrid warfare targeting vulnerable energy infrastructure in order to undermine support of Ukraine.

Jonas Gahr Stre told a news conference Norway would step up its military presence at Norwegian installations after the country had become Europes largest supplier of natural gas.

He added that any attack on the Nato members offshore installations would be handled jointly with its allies.

Large amounts of natural gas have been pouring into the Baltic Sea since Monday through three separate leaks on the two Nord Stream pipelines built to deliver Russian gas to Europe. Seismologists recorded explosions in the Swedish and Danish waters where the pipeline passes the island of Bornholm on Monday morning and evening, suggesting the leaks were deliberate.

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Updated at 13.28EDT

Romania has called on its citizens to consider leaving Russia or to avoid non-essential travel to the country.

The call by the foreign ministry mirrors similar recommendations by other European countries in the region including Poland and Bulgaria.

Updated at 13.21EDT

More than half of the gas in the damaged Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea has already leaked into the atmosphere, the head of the Danish Energy Agency has said.

A clear majority of the gas has come out of the pipelines, Kristoffer Bttzauw told a press conference, adding that the remaining volume was expected to be gone by Sunday.

Denmarks defence minister, Morten Bdskov, said earlier today that it would take one or two weeks before inspections of the damaged structures could begin.

Updated at 13.15EDT

The EU executive has promised to cap the price of Russian oil and impose further curbs on hi-tech trade, as part of the latest round of sanctions to make the Kremlin pay for the escalation of the war against Ukraine.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said Russia had ramped up the invasion to a new level, listing the sham referendums in Russian-occupied territory, the partial mobilisation order and Vladimir Putins threat to use nuclear weapons. We are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation, she said.

She promised the EU would introduce a price cap on Russian oil to help reduce Russian revenues and keep the global market stable. The European Commission also wants to impose further restrictions on hi-tech goods the EU can sell to Russia such as certain chemicals and aviation components to further weaken the Kremlins ability to wage war.

Von der Leyen said anyone who helped Russia evade sanctions faced being added to the EUs list of of restrictive measures. This will have a major deterring effect, she said.

Shortly before she spoke, Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, urged the EU to introduce a price cap on Russian oil as soon as possible. Ustenko said Russia was earning hundreds of millions a day from selling oil, which was being channelled to fund the war against Ukraine.

Of course the main goal is to cut off Putins regime from all possible sources of financing. No doubt that the main source of financing for them right now is everything related to fossil fuels, he added.

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The US is working with allies to quickly impose severe economic costs on Moscow over sham referendums held in occupied regions of Ukraine, according to a US official.

James OBrien, the US state departments head of sanctions coordination, said in prepared remarks for the senates foreign relations committee:

There will be more packages. We are working on more sanctions.

He said he expected the Biden administrations pace of announcing sanctions on Russia on average every six weeks would continue.

Washington would look to the financial sector and high technology, especially for energy exploitation and human rights violators, he said.

He added:

Everything is on the table.

Updated at 12.33EDT

Russian citizens who are called up for army service will not be given a passport that would allow them to leave the country, according to a government website.

Agence France-Presse has cited a government information portal as saying:

If a citizen is summoned for army service or received a summons (for mobilisation), he will be refused a passport.

Those who are not issued a passport will be notified how long the hold will be in place, it added.

Only a minority of Russians hold a passport that allows them to leave the country. It comes as fears of travel restrictions rise and tens of thousands of Russian men of military age flee the country, with reports that some have already been barred from leaving.

Updated at 12.32EDT

Britains prime minister, Liz Truss, told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a phone call that the UK would never recognise Russian attempts to annex parts of Ukraine, Downing Street has said.

In a statement, a No 10 spokesperson said:

The prime minister spoke to President Zelenskiy this afternoon to underline the UKs steadfast support in light of Russias sham referendums in Ukraine.

The prime minister made clear that the UK would never recognise Russian attempts to annexe sovereign territory. She reiterated that Ukraine could depend on the UKs support until President Putin was defeated.

President Zelensky updated the prime minister on the current military situation and welcomed her strong backing, including at the UN general assembly last week.

Truss also thanked the Ukrainian president for his work in securing the release of five British nationals held by Russian-backed proxies in eastern Ukraine, the spokesperson continued.

They added:

The leaders also discussed how the UK and Ukraine could work together to secure Ukraines gas supplies in the long term. Both agreed to stay in close touch in the coming days and weeks.

Zelenskiy also tweeted about the call and said he expected Londons leadership in response to what he called the sham referenda in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Updated at 12.31EDT

Serbias president, Aleksandar Vui, has said he will not recognise the results of the so-called referendums held in four regions of Ukraine partly occupied by Russian forces.

Speaking to reporters, Vui said:

Serbia ... will not recognise that (referendums) as it adheres to international law, the United Nations Charter and UN resolutions.

Belgrade normally has strong ties with Moscow; Serbia is solely reliant on Russia for its natural gas supplies and has refused to join western sanctions against Russia.

Vui added:

We are protecting our own territorial integrity and it is in our best interest to protect the territorial integrity of other internationally recognised countries.

Updated at 12.31EDT

Ukrainian authorities say they have identified five Russian soldiers who allegedly shot at civilian cars in the Kyiv region during the first days of the war.

CCTV footage gathered by Ukrainian investigators shows Russian units shooting at civilian cars along roads just outside Hostomel, a town north-west of Ukraines capital, Kyiv.

In one of the clips, a car catches fire after being shot by troops stationed in the forest opposite. The driver of the car died, according to Ihor Klymenko, the head of Ukraines national police force.

Klymenko said the Russian soldiers shot as if they were on safari. One of the cars examined as part of the case had 178 bullet holes, he said.

The Russian soldiers are charged with killing five people, and injuring a further six, who were trying to flee Hostomel on 25 February, a day after Russia invaded. Eleven people were killed and 14 injured on the stretch of road in question, say Ukraines authorities.

Ukraines security services alleged that the charged Russian soldiers had shot at 12 cars over a period of six hours. According to security services, with three of the five men identified giving the orders to shoot at the vehicles.

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Updated at 12.29EDT

Original post:

Russia-Ukraine war: Kremlin-backed officials ask Putin to annex regions; EU announces new sanctions on Russia as it happened - The Guardian

Highlighting a wide range of violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, the report notes multiple cases of willful killings, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearance, torture and ill-treatment, and conflict-related sexual violence.

Hostilities continue to kill and injure civilians as well as destroy and damage civilian infrastructure, said Head of HRMMU, Matilda Bogner, indicating that hostilities not only endanger the lives of civilians, but also leave them living in degrading conditions and undermine their rights to health, education, housing, food and water.

Since the Russian invasion of 24 February, the mission has recorded 5,996 civilian deaths, including 382 children, together with 8,848 injured, noting that the actual figures are much higher, as complete information from conflict zones cannot be obtained.

According to HRMMU, enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention were widespread in territory controlled by Russian armed forces or affiliated armed groups, as well as cases of torture and ill-treatment of civilian detainees.

The prohibition of torture and arbitrary deprivation of life is absolute and applies in conflict and non-conflict settings to all persons, said Ms. Bogner. Perpetrators must be held accountable, and victims and their relatives must enjoy their rights to remedy and truth.

HRMMU also documented cases of rape, including of one girl; sexual violence used as torture or ill-treatment against men; forced public stripping - and other forms of sexual violence, such as forced nudity, unwanted sexual touching, sexual abuse and threats of sexual violence.

The report also found that Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) were subjected to torture or cruel and degrading treatment.

Such mistreatmentappears to be systematic, not only upon their capture, but also following their transfer to places of internment both in territory of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation and in the Russian Federation itself, said the HRMMU chief, calling it a grave violation of international humanitarian law that Russia must address.

Meanwhile, some Russian POWs were tortured and ill-treated by Ukrainian armed forces as well.

There must be timely and effective investigations into all allegations of violations of international humanitarian law and human rights law, including torture, ill-treatment, arbitrary detention and sexual violence, she continued, adding that regardless of their affiliation, perpetrators need to be duly prosecuted.

Hostilities have severely impacted the rights of persons with disabilities and the elderly, the majority of whom are women, leaving them without healthcare, adequate housing, heating, water and electricity.

Furthermore, some journalists, media workers, and bloggers have been killed in areas controlled by the Russian military or affiliated armed groups.

The report emphasized that freedom of expression, including access to media, has been restricted in occupied areas.

We are concerned that the shrinking civic space and highly restrictive environment in areas occupied by the Russian Federation deter people from reporting the human rights violations they have experienced or witnessed, said Ms. Bogner said.

UNICEF/Ashley Gilbertson

A twelve-year-old girl stands in front of her school which was destroyed in an air strike during the conflict in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

The report made recommendations to both Governments and the international community and called for their swift implementation to improve human rights in the country, better protect civilians, and strengthen accountability.

Ms. Bogner assured that HRMMU would continue to document and report the facts on the ground and give a voice to victims.

We consider this to be an essential part of seeking to prevent further violations and hold those responsible accountable for the violations already committed.

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'Dire' and deteriorating pattern of rights abuse continues in Ukraine - UN News

A cemetery worker takes a rest from working on the graves of civilians killed in Bucha during the war with Russia, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, in April. Rodrigo Abd/AP hide caption

A cemetery worker takes a rest from working on the graves of civilians killed in Bucha during the war with Russia, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, in April.

Investigators appointed by the United Nations have confirmed that Russian armed forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine, including documented cases of civilian executions, torture and sexual violence.

But there is another group in a unique position to track atrocities in Ukraine journalists. The Reckoning Project is a training program that exists to teach journalists not just to collect information for their stories, but also evidence of war crimes that can be used in international courts.

One of its creators is a longtime war correspondent, Janine di Giovanni, who joined All Things Considered for an interview to share the significance of expanding war crimes documentation.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

A view inside the Mariupol theater damaged during fighting in Ukraine. Alexei Alexandrov/AP hide caption

A view inside the Mariupol theater damaged during fighting in Ukraine.

On the motivation behind starting the Reckoning Project

It was really motivated out of deep frustration and sorrow. I'd been reporting war for more than 30 years and witnessing three genocides, essentially Bosnia, Rwanda and the slaughter of the Yazidis.

I had done something like the Reckoning Project in Iraq, Yemen and Syria for the United Nations. But the Reckoning Project is far more advanced. And we are working with Ukrainian investigative journalists. We've trained them so that their work will adhere to international legal standards. And then we're building cases.

On the differences between covering war crimes as a journalist and presenting that information to a legal investigation

There really is a lot that is very different. Some of the really important things. First of all, you cannot interview a witness who's been traumatized. So the number of times I have been a journalist and, say, been in a hospital in Iraq where a child has just suffered grievous injuries following a rocket attack. And TV reporters were there with cameras like right in the kid's face, and we would never do things like that.

We've developed a very careful template for our methodology, which is essentially questions, but they're not leading questions. So no leading questions, no trauma. Journalists have this tremendous skill, which is interviewing. But there was a real gap between the ability that journalists have, and their ability to submit their evidence to courts of law.

And I know this because I was called to The Hague several times for wars in Sierra Leone, for Bosnia, for Kosovo. And often my notebooks just weren't up to scratch. They were great notebooks for fact-checkers, but they weren't good notebooks for lawyers.

On whether war correspondents have a responsibility in the legal prosecution of war criminals

I absolutely do believe that war reporters who witness these things have a kind of responsibility. It's a moral responsibility. And I have many colleagues who said to me, you know, "Look, I'm not a social worker and I am just a reporter and I'm here to bring the facts." That's fine. Also, there are the issues of impartiality and neutrality and objectivity. For me, it was always a very different thing. It was more about bringing a voice to people that didn't have a voice, and it was about bearing witness.

On toeing the line between journalism and activism

If you're asking a journalistic ethics committee, I'm sure they'd have a different answer. But personally, from my own career, I don't consider myself an activist. I consider myself a human rights defender.

It's what I've always done. From my very first assignment, my mentor was an Israeli lawyer, and she said to me a line that changed my life forever: If you have the ability to go to these places and report on it and bring back the truth, then you have a responsibility. I took that to heart.

This interview was adapted for the web by Manuela Lopez Restrepo.

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Journalists are being trained to gather evidence of war crimes starting in Ukraine - NPR

It would be easy to underestimate Valeriy Zaluzhny. When not in uniform, the general prefers T-shirts and shorts that match his easygoing sense of humor. When he first heard from aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in late July 2021 that he was being tapped to lead the countrys armed forces, his stunned response was, What do you mean? As it sank in that he would become commander in chief, he tells TIME in his first interview since the Russian invasion began, he felt as if he had been punched not just below the belt but straight into a knockout. George Patton or Douglas MacArthur he is not.

Yet when the history of the war in Ukraine is written, Zaluzhny is likely to occupy a prominent role. He was part of the Ukrainian brass who spent years transforming the countrys military from a clunky Soviet model into a modern fighting force. Hardened by years of battling Russia on the eastern front, he was among a new generation of Ukrainian leaders who learned to be flexible and delegate decisions to commanders on the ground. His dogged preparation in the run-up to the invasion and savvy battlefield tactics in the early phases of the war helped the nation fend off the Russian onslaught. Zaluzhny has emerged as the military mind his country needed, U.S. General Mark Milley wrote for TIME of his counterpart last May. His leadership enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to adapt quickly with battlefield initiative against the Russians.

Photo illustration by Neil Jamieson for TIME (Source Photo: Gleb GaranichReuters Pool Photo/AP)

That initiative has now taken a key turn in Ukraines favor. In Kyivs biggest gains since the war began in February, a lightning counteroffensive in the countrys northeast in early September stunned Russian troops, who fled in disarray and ceded vast swaths of occupied territory. Combined with a second operation in the south, Ukrainian forces say they wrested back more than 6,000 sq km from Russian control in less than two weeks, liberating dozens of towns and cities and cutting off enemy supply lines. The Ukrainian armys deft game of misdirection, touting a counter-offensive in the south before attacking in the northeast, caught Russia off guard. And it validated the Ukrainians arguments that intelligence collaboration and billions of dollars in weapons and materiel supplied by Western allies would yield results on the battlefield.

The sudden victories came at a critical point in what had become a grinding war of attrition. As the economic pressures built across Europe and around the world, skeptics were beginning to doubt whether Ukraine could endure a protracted fight. The dramatic rout rattled Moscow, forcing Kremlin propagandists to admit the setback and upping the military and political pressures on Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Sept. 21 he responded by announcing the first mass conscription since World War II, a partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens.

Ukrainian and U.S. officials alike believe the war will be longer and bloodier than most imagine. Putin has shown hes willing to sacrifice his troops and commit atrocities to exhaust his adversary. In a menacing speech, he warned that he was not bluffing when he threatened to use everything at his disposal to defend Russiaan allusion to nuclear weapons. The recent Ukrainian offensive may be a turning point, but it is not the decisive blow. In hindsight, well look at this like the Battle of Midway, says Dan Rice, a U.S. Army combat veteran and leadership executive at West Point who serves as a special adviser to Zaluzhny, referring to the pivotal 1942 clash that preceded three more years of war.

A woman rides a bicycle on a street in Izyum, Sept. 14.

Juan BarretoAFP/Getty Images

Zaluzhny is just one of many Ukrainians responsible for the grit and progress of the nations outmanned army. Other key officers include General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraines ground forces, who led the defense of Kyiv and, more recently, the counteroffensive in the east, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraines military intelligence service. But after the President, Zaluzhny has become the face of the war effort. His persona is omnipresent on Ukrainian social media. One widely shared image shows the Iron General kneeling in front of the sobbing mother of one of his soldiers, head bowed in grief in front of a casket. In another he flashes a grin presiding over the wedding of one of his servicemen during a lull in the fighting. Fan channels on Telegram have hundreds of thousands of followers, with many changing their profiles to a photo of the general with his hands held in the shape of a heart. When Zaluzhny walks into a dark room he does not turn on the light, he turns off the darkness, one viral TikTok video jokes.

Its hard to predict where the war is headed or the part Zaluzhny will play in the end. But perhaps for the first time, it now seems possible that the army he commands could achieve victory.

Zaluzhny was drinking a beer at his wifes birthday party when he stepped outside to take a cell-phone call and learned about his new job. The 48-year-old generals rank and stature at the time were far below the position Zelensky was offering him. Commander in chief of the armed forces of Ukraine is the nations top military title, outranked only by the President himself. The height of that perch induced a feeling like vertigo. Ive often looked back and asked myself: How did I get myself into this? Zaluzhny told TIME in a June interview.

To some, the choice seemed rash. While he had earned a reputation as an aggressive and ambitious commander, Zaluzhny was also considered a bit of a goofball, better known for clowning around with his troops than disciplining them. Born on a Soviet military garrison in northern Ukraine in 1973, he says he had dreams of becoming a comedian, much like Zelensky himself. Instead, he followed in the footsteps of his military family, entering the academy in Odessa in the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine descended into crisis.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny attends a meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv on April 24, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Zaluzhny rose through the ranks with a new generation of officers that bridged very different eras: raised in Soviet Ukraine, but eager to shed USSR military dogma. For a masters thesis, Zaluzhny analyzed U.S. military structure. Seeing how Ukrainian forces were still weighed down by the Soviet model that relied on rigid, top-heavy decision-making, he began to implement changes to mirror the forces of U.S. and NATO partners.

Zaluzhny worked his way from commanding a platoon to leading the countrys forces on the eastern front following Russias annexation of Crimea in 2014. In that role, he developed junior officers and encouraged more agile decision-making, pushing down authority to commanders on the ground. Unlike in the Russian army, sergeants would not be scapegoats, but rather real deputies meant to create a pipeline of military talent, he said in a 2020 interview published by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. There is no going back, he said, to the army of 2013.

But Zaluzhny also respected and admired the institutions of his Russian counterparts. In his office, he keeps the collected works of General Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian armed forces, who is 17 years his senior. I was raised on Russian military doctrine, and I still think that the science of war is all located in Russia, Zaluzhny says. I learned from Gerasimov. I read everything he ever wrote He is the smartest of men, and my expectations of him were enormous.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a flag hoisting ceremony in Izyum after the Ukrainian forces took back control of the city from the Russians.

Metin AktasAnadolu Agency/Getty Images

When Zelensky took office in 2019, the war in eastern Ukraine was already in its fifth year, and Zaluzhny was acting commander in the war zone. It fell to him to brief the new President on military operations and command structures. He knew Zelensky had never served in the military, and had no plans to school him in the tactical details of warfare. He doesnt need to understand military affairs any more than he needs to know about medicine or bridge building, Zaluzhny says. To his surprise, Zelensky seemed to agree. This has turned out to be one of [Zelenskys] strongest features, says Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian Assistant Defense Minister. He has allowed his generals to run the show without direct interference into military business.

In 2020, Zaluzhny oversaw an ambitious set of military exercises, which included a test of the Javelin anti-tank missile. With the President watching from the observation deck, the demonstration failed, and pundits went on Ukrainian TV to debate the bad omen for the nations military. Zaluzhny was sure he would be known in the Presidents office as the loser with the faulty Javelins.

Yet Zelensky has shown a determination to jettison an older generation of officials in search of new blood, and a habit of elevating leaders with whom he feels a rapport, regardless of rank. In July 2021, with the Russians hauling tanks to the border and the Americans warning that Ukraine could soon face a full-scale attack, the President decided to put Zaluzhny in charge. I gave my opinion that he strikes me as a fairly professional, smart person, says Andriy Yermak, Zelenskys chief of staff. But the President made the call.

Unlike Zelensky, who was skeptical of intelligence reports that a mass-scale Russian invasion was imminent, Zaluzhny was part of a corps of Ukrainian officers who viewed it as a matter of time. Within weeks of taking up his post, he began to implement key changes. Officers would be free to return fire with any available weapons if they came under attack, with no need for permission from senior commanders. We needed to knock down their desire to attack, Zaluzhny says. We also needed to show our teeth.

By early February, the pressure of his new role was starting to show. The launch of an ambitious set of military exercises involving thousands of Ukrainian troops had been a disappointment, with basic maneuvers meant to simulate a Russian attack exposing cracks in Ukraines defenses. In Zaluzhnys view, the drills were a centerpiece of Ukraines defensive strategy, its best chance of survival, and the commanders were not taking them seriously enough. I spent an hour yelling, he recalls. I lost it. The men seated around the table were mostly older and more experienced than Zaluzhny, who did not have a reputation for losing his cool. I explained to them that if they cant pull this off, the consequences will not only cost us our lives, but also our country.

After the outburst, the generals picked up their preparations. They relocated and camouflaged military hardware, moving troops and weapons out of their bases and sending them on tours around the country. This included aircraft, tanks, and armored vehicles, as well as the antiaircraft batteries Ukraine would soon need to maintain control of its skies. Theres no mistaking the smell of war, Zaluzhny says, and it was already in the air. But when it came to the details of his strategy, Zaluzhny held them close. I was afraid that we would lose the element of surprise, he says. We needed the adversary to think that we are all deployed in our usual bases, smoking grass, watching TV, and posting on Facebook.

When the invasion started on the morning of Feb. 24, the general had two strategic goals for Ukraines defense. We could not allow Kyiv to fall, he said. And, on all the other vectors, we had to spill their blood, even if in some places it would require losing territory. The aim, in other words, was to allow the Russians to advance and then destroy their columns in the front and supply lines in the rear. By the sixth day of the invasion, he concluded it was working. The Russians had failed to take airports around Kyiv and had advanced deep enough to begin straining supply lines, leaving them exposed.

Milley, Zaluzhnys U.S. counterpart, was in some ways astounded when he saw the Ukrainians holding out. He asked Zaluzhny whether he planned to evacuate to safer ground. I told him, I dont understand you, Zaluzhny says. For me the war started in 2014 I didnt run away then, and Im not going to run now.

He too was surprised by Russias blunders. When the enemy faced heavy resistance or lost the ability to resupply, they did not retreat or shift to a different approach. They just herded their soldiers into the slaughter, Zaluzhny said. They chose the scenario that suited me best of all.

Even as the U.S. and allies continued to flood the country with billions in military aid, the news was grim. Russia pounded the strategic port city of Mariupol, killing thousands of civilians. In May, hundreds of Ukrainian fighters who had defended the last stronghold in the city, the Azovstal steel plant, surrendered. (More than 150 were returned Sept. 21 in a prisoner swap, including five top Ukrainian commanders.) Mass graves were discovered in towns and villages occupied by Russian troops. Still, Ukrainian officials insisted they could win. We will fight until the last drop of blood, Zaluzhny told TIME.

A few weeks later, Ukraine began to do something that struck military analysts as unusual. From the top of the government, Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, began to publicly tout their preparations for a large-scale operation to retake territory in the south. In anticipation of an attack, Russia began to reposition troops, including some of its most elite units from other regions to reinforce its positions in the south. On Aug. 29, the Ukrainian military announced that the long-anticipated southern offensive had begun.

A Ukrainian soldier assists a wounded comrade on Sept.12 in the Kharkiv region.

Kostiantyn LiberovAP

But there were indications something else was afoot. We have a war on, not only in the south, Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraines National Security and Defense Council, told TIME on Sept. 1. The front line is 2,500 km long. Many experts doubted that Ukraine would be capable of mounting a counter-offensive on one front, let alone two.

Five days later, Ukrainian troops launched a surprise strike in the countrys northeast. The Russians were caught off guard. Many fled in disarray, leaving behind weapons and equipment. Local reports painted a humiliating picture of retreat, describing soldiers stealing civilians clothes, bicycles, and cars to escape.

In six days, the Ukrainian military retook an estimated 3,000 sq km of Russian-held territory, including strategically important rail hubs used to resupply its forces. The strike stunned the Kremlin, U.S. officials, and even top Ukrainians. I taught myself to moderate my expectations, so as not to be disappointed later, Reznikov tells TIME. Some breakthroughs occurred a little faster than planned.

Intelligence and advanced weaponry provided by the West also helped. They gave us the location of the enemy, how many of them are at that location, and what they have stored there, Reznikov says. Then we would strike. The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) provided by the Pentagon allowed Ukraine to destroy warehouses of ammunition, fuel, and command posts. Lighter vehicles like U.S.-donated humvees, as well as trucks and tanks sent by the U.K., Australia, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Czech Republic, allowed them to outmaneuver the Russians. Ukrainians have demonstrated much better distributed tactical-level operations, says Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA analyst and Russia director on the National Security Council. Theyre much more disciplined.

Also crucial, Ukrainian officials say, was the flexible command structure that allowed them to exploit the quick Russian collapse. The Ukrainian army has the freedom to make decisions at every level, Reznikov says, likening it to NATO standards. They do it quickly, unlike the Russians.

A boy rides a bicycle near an armored tank with a Ukrainian flag in the town of Izyum on Sept. 19.

Oleksii ChumachenkoSOPA Images/LightRocket/ Getty Images

Ukrainian officials are careful to spread the credit for the military successes so far. Its not a story of one star, but a constellation of our military elite, Reznikov says, naming a long list of celebrated officers from the armed forcesthe infantry, navy, air force, medical corps and others.

There are rumors of tensions between Zelensky and his top military commander, though the President and his aides have dismissed them. The so-called conflict with Zaluzhny was invented by our opposition from start to finish, says Oleksiy Arestovych, a Zelensky aide and veteran of Ukraines military intelligence service. On the one hand, its obviously made up. On the other, it has a painful effect, because stirring up conflict between the military commander and the commander in chief is a catastrophe.

Hardened by war, Ukrainian leaders know the recent successes have only bought time. Russia has staked everything on this war, says Danilov, the head of Ukraines National Security and Defense Council. Putin cannot lose. The stakes are too high.

Ukraines operations in the south have moved slowly. As winter approaches, Kyiv must take care not to overextend its forces. And there are forces at play outside Ukraines control. The looming energy crisis could sap Western military support, with Russia already cutting its gas supplies to Europe from 40% to 9%.

For his part, Zaluzhny is girding for a long and bloody slog. Knowing what I know firsthand about the Russians, our victory will not be final, he told TIME. Our victory will be an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next war. With reporting by Leslie Dickstein and Simmone Shah

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Write to Vera Bergengruen at vera.bergengruen@time.com.

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How Ukraine and Valeriy Zaluzhny Turned the Tide of the War - TIME

Unidentified graves of civilians and Ukrainian soldiers in a cemetery during an exhumation in the recently retaken area of Izium, Ukraine, September 17, 2022.Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

More than 4,000 recordings of Russian soldiers making calls from Kyiv were obtained by The New York Times.

One Russian soldier told his girlfriend that he received orders to "kill everyone we see."

UN investigators previously accused Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

One Russian soldier in Kyiv recounted in a phone call how his commander ordered troops to kill Ukrainian civilians to conceal their locations, which is a war crime under international law.

The call was just one of many unauthorized phone calls made in March by Russian soldiers, which were intercepted from the Bucha area a suburb of Kyiv where civilians were massacred by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. The New York Times obtained, verified, and translated the recordings.

The calls reveal the bleak reality Russian soldiers faced in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, which began in late February. The Times report documented soldiers reporting back to their mothers, friends, and girlfriends on some of the atrocities they witnessed and participated in.

In one call to his girlfriend, a Russian soldier identified only by his first name, Sergey, said his commander had given an order to take Ukrainian civilians to the forest to execute them.

"They told us that, where we're going, there's a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see," Sergey said, according to The Times.

His girlfriend responded: "Why the fuck?"

"Because they might give away our positions. ... That's what we're fucking going to do, it seems," Sergey replied, per the report. "Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. ... I've already become a murderer. that's why I don't want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."

Killing civilians is a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

According to the statute, "intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities" would be considered one of the "serious violations of the laws" in international armed conflict.

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The United Nations previously accused Russia of committing a long list of war crimes in Ukraine.

Some atrocities listed include sexual violence, torture, and "indiscriminate attacks with explosive weapons," according to Erik Mse, who led the UN's investigation into human rights violations and crimes committed in Ukraine.

In another recording between Sergey and his girlfriend, the Russian soldier said a captain ordered the execution of three men, in part because their unit didn't have enough food to feed themselves.

"We detained them, undressed them, and checked all their clothes. Then a decision had to be made whether to let them go," Sergey said. "If we let them go, they could give away our position. ... So it was decided to shoot them in the forest."

When his girlfriend asked why they weren't taken as prisoners, he replied: "We would have had to feed them, and we don't have enough food ourselves, you see."

The UN wasn't the only international entity to suspect Russia of committing atrocities in Ukraine. Russian forces, who have repeatedly targeted civilians since the war began, have been widely accused of committing war crimes in Ukraine including by world leaders and top human rights groups.

President Joe Biden has gone as far to accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of committing "genocide" in Ukraine. Biden said in April that Putin was vying to "wipe out the idea of even being a Ukrainian."

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A Russian soldier was recorded saying he was told to 'kill everyone we see' in Ukraine, including civilians, which is a war crime, according to audio...