Category Archives: Ukraine

When Russian forces seized Crimea in 2014, paving the way for President Vladimir Putins annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula, a large number of world leaders and international organizations condemned the invasion as illegal. But Putin and other senior Russian officials were never prosecuted in any court of international law for the crime of aggression: the use of armed force against another country without defensive necessity.

Eight years later, Russia did it again, invading mainland Ukraine in February. Last week, Putin declared the annexation of four regions over which his forces have partial control. The invasion and the recent annexation are illegal under international law as was the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014.These actions threaten not only Ukraine but also the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that form the basis for the peaceful coexistence of nations.Yet whether these acts of aggression will be prosecuted this time around remains in question. Thats because prosecuting the crime of aggression would not put a lowly soldier or mid-level officer on the stand, but Russias highest ranking military and political officials, all the way to Putin himself.

Over the last eight months, evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity by Russian forces has piled up. Some officials, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have gone as far as to call Russias actions in Ukraine genocide a claim some experts have disputed. Investigations into these alleged crimes are well underway, by Ukrainian prosecutors, foreign countries, international organizations, and the International Criminal Court, among others. But whether anyone will prosecute those chiefly responsible for the aggression itself, and under which jurisdiction, is still unclear.

Its a question on everyones mind, said Nathaniel Raymond, a human rights investigator who is analyzing evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine as part of a Yale School of Public Health initiative supported by the U.S. State Department. What is more important? Is it catching the colonel-level in charge of the artillery assault on Mariupol, or is it Putin?

None of this would be happening if Russia had not invaded, echoed Philippe Sands, a prominent international law specialist. The danger that we face is that in five years time, we will have three or four trials of low-grade, useless sorts of characters that are totally irrelevant, and the top people just get off scot-free.

The International Criminal Courts involvement in Ukraine has garnered the support of countries long hostile to the court, including the United States, which like Russia and Ukraine is not a member party of the ICC. Dozens of countries have pledged support and some $20 million for the courts effort in Ukraine. While little is known about the scope of the ICCs investigation, the court has jurisdiction over war crimes and crimes against humanity but cannot prosecute the crime of aggression against nationals of a nonmember state or without a referral from the United Nations Security Council. Russia, which holds veto power on the council, would certainly stand in the way.

But other countries, including the U.S., may also not look favorably on the prospect of prosecuting Putin for the crime of aggression, for fear of setting a precedent that could boomerang against them.

The big elephant in the room in Ukraine is Iraq.

They dont want to deal with the crime of aggression because they know that if its used against Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, today, it might be used against them tomorrow, said Sands. The big elephant in the room in Ukraine is Iraq, which was also a manifestly illegal war and produced a very different response in Britain and in the United States.

In practice, that renders the ICC powerless to prosecute the crime that many Ukrainians and observers argue has enabled all others. The crime of aggression is the mother crime. If there wasnt this unprovoked war and aggression, there would be no further crimes, no war crimes, or crimes against humanity, Tetiana Pechonchyk, head of the Ukrainian human rights group Zmina, told The Intercept. But in the existing framework of the international accountability mechanism, there is no accountability for the crime of aggression.

Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, visits a mass grave in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on April 13, 2022, amid Russias military invasion of Ukraine.

Photo: Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images

In the current context, there is no international body with the authority to hold individual perpetrators criminally responsible for the crime of aggression in Ukraine. The International Court of Justice, the official court of the U.N., handles disputes between states, rather than individuals, and Russia has ignored the courts rulings in the past. Thats why Ukrainian authorities have intensified calls for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian aggression. They have long been supported by dozens of Ukrainian civil society groups, and by a growing chorus of international experts, who have drafted proposals outlining what that tribunal might look like.

We need to have a real focus on individuals at the higher military and political echelons, Wayne Jordash, an international humanitarian law attorney with years of experience in international courts and tribunals, told The Intercept.

The crime of aggression is a leadership crime, Sands agreed. Its the only crime that takes us straight to the top table: the decision-makers, the people who participated in the decision to launch the war. Were talking about 20 people max, and the proof is very straightforward.

A handful of countries have so far voiced their support for such a tribunal, and Ukrainian officials have been lobbying to get more on board. The body could be established through the U.N. with a vote in the General Assembly, which consists of all members of the U.N., authorizing thesecretary-general to work with Ukrainian authorities to set up a special tribunal. In March, 140 nationsvoted in favor of a resolution denouncing Russian aggression, theoretically paving the way for more concrete action. Or the tribunal could be established through a regional framework at the European level. So far, a number of resolutions, including from the European Parliament and the Council of Europe, have backed the establishment of a special tribunal, but broader political consensus is needed to translate those statements into action.

Unlike the prosecution of war crimes and crimes against humanity, whichis based on the review of expansive amounts of evidence and witness testimony and can take years to complete, the crime of aggression is, technically speaking, a relatively quick one for building a case. The crime of aggression is obvious; the evidence is on the surface, said Pechonchyk, the Ukrainian human rights activist. The process would be quick, but we need the consensus, and we need the resources.

Still, prosecuting the crime of aggression is an untested endeavor as well as potentially a politically unpopular one. Since the time of the Nuremberg Trials and Tokyo War Crimes Trial after World War II, when aggression was known as crimes against peace, theres been no attempt by an international body to prosecute it.

There have, of course, been instances of aggression. As the United States and its allies prepared to invade Iraq in 2003, a number of international bodies denounced them. The International Court of Justiceexpressedits deep dismay that a small number of states are poised to launch an outright illegal invasion of Iraq, which amounts to a war of aggression, and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan later called the invasion illegal and a violation of the U.N. charter.

But there were no international mechanisms in place with the jurisdiction to prosecute the leaders of that invasion and even less political appetite for attempting to create them. As the war in Iraq continued, leading to widespread abuses and killings that had the hallmarks of war crimes, calls to hold accountable those responsible, including President George W. Bush andBritish Prime Minister Tony Blair, were mostly relegated to activist and anti-war circles. Prosecuting some prominent figures today over the crime of aggression when others were not prosecuted in the past would inevitably raise legitimate questions of consistency and bias. But experts argue that reversing the patternof nonprosecution is more important than ever, to set a precedent thatcould help deter future aggression.

Its a crime invented in 45 that has had a long shelf life. My feeling is that if this is not prosecuted as a crime of aggression, then the crime of aggression is basically dead, said Sands. I dont for a moment want to understate the horrors of Bucha and Mariupol. Of course they must be investigated, and the people who perpetrated them must be found and subjected to some form of justice, absolutely. But thats a sideshow. Theres only one real issue, and that is the small cast of characters and the finances that supported this war.

Details about what a special tribunal would look like, under whose mandate it would operate, and which other crimes it would tackle are unclear at the moment. Its also unclear whether the tribunal would replace ongoing local and international investigations, or work alongside them.

Some experts have argued that existing courts and mechanisms should be fully supported before new ones are set up. The U.S. and its key Western allieshave hesitated to take a position.

A spokesperson for the State Department wrote in an email to The Intercept that the administration is carefully reviewing a proposal for a special tribunal. The spokesperson added, We are absolutely committed to bringing those who are responsible to justice.

A spokesperson for the U.K. Foreign Office did not address questions about British support for a special tribunal,emphasizing instead support for war crimes investigations. The spokesperson referred The Intercept to a statement made by Foreign Secretary James Cleverly at a recent meeting of the U.N. Security Council. We must make clear to President Putin that his attack on the Ukrainian people must stop, that there can be no impunity for those perpetrating atrocities and that he must withdraw from Ukraine and restore regional and global stability, Cleverly said then.

A spokesperson for the French Embassy in Washington, responding to questions about the potential of a special tribunal, referred The Intercept to a recent statement of support for the ICC, the only permanent criminal court that is universal in scope. The statement noted that support for the ICC came in addition to support for Ukrainian courts. And a spokesperson for the German Embassy in Washington wrote to The Intercept, We support the investigations of the ICC chief investigator politically, financially and with experts.

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Theprospect of a special tribunal has particularly raised the concern of the ICCs prosecutor general, Karim Khan, who has been struggling to restore the courts legitimacy after years of criticism most notably, that the court for a long time onlyprosecuted Africans. In more recent years, the court has launched a number of new inquiries, including into alleged Israeli crimes in Palestine and British crimes inIraq.(The U.K. is a founding member of the ICC, which gave the court jurisdictions in this case, but because neither Iraq nor the U.S. are members, the court couldnt investigate U.S. crimes there.) Both those investigations have faced fierce opposition, contributing to a perception that the ICC cannot take on the worlds most powerful countries. As The Intercept previously reported, the U.S. also went to great lengths to derail an ICC investigation of its crimes and those committed by its allies in Afghanistan, further contributing to that view.

The ICC prosecutor is fighting a battle to be relevant and effective and show that ICC prosecution is a viable investigative and prosecutorial model of operating in light of its long history of not being those things, said Jordash, the humanitarian law attorney, adding that regional tribunals tend to redirect resources from other accountability processes, including local prosecutions and truth and reconciliation initiatives. A new tribunal obviously would overlap with any investigations by the ICC prosecutor. Theres a risk that if thats not explained properly, that funding will suddenly float to the new court, and the energy that the ICC prosecutor meets will be sort of depleted. As Sands noted, Hes worried it will distract and take attention away and take money away.

A spokesperson for the ICC prosecutor did not respond to a request for comment.

Right/Top: Dried bloodstains cover the stairs to the basement where civilian bodies were discovered after the liberation of Bucha from Russian invaders, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 7, 2022. Left/Bottom: A body is discovered in the kitchen of a house in Bucha after the Ukrainian army secured the area following the withdrawal of the Russian army, on April 6, 2022.Photos: NurPhoto via Getty Images

The ICC first opened an inquiry in Ukraine in 2014, after receiving permission from Ukrainian authorities to do so. It formally launched an expanded investigation this year.So far, little detail is available about the focus of the courts work in Ukraine, and others engaged in similar efforts, like a multicountry, joint investigation team, have also revealed little about their investigations.

I think theres a lot of noise, and not that much has been translated yet into discernible action on the ground in Ukraine, or translated into real support for the Ukrainian prosecution, said Jordash. Despite a lot of the rhetoric that we hear from both international actors and also some national actors, theyre at the very beginning. Building viable cases against those further from the ground and up the chain of command in the political and military sphere really hasnt begun in earnest yet. Frankly, I think theres a sort of lack of understanding as to the need, and how to do that.

Regional prosecutors in Ukraine have struggled to tackle the overwhelming amount of evidence they and others are gathering. In Bucha, when Russian forces first retreated, local police found themselves handling evidence of mass torture and killings. Six months ago, Ukraine had no forensic teams specialized in mass graves, said Raymond, the human rights investigator. We are looking at a retrofit, in the middle of a war, of an entire law enforcement community.

Thats where the international community comes in. The investigation and prosecution of war crimes is a highly specialized area of expertise. Successful documentation and prosecution is a complex endeavor that requires the coordination of a number of players, noted Jordash. You need the effective collaboration of civil society, professional investigators at the local level, and international experts. Instead of the frenzied documentation, which is what we have now, what we need is to see more collaboration and more openness and more cooperation.

When Ukrainian soldiers wrestled back control of the eastern city of Izium in September, they found a devastated city and hundreds of dead bodies, including more than 440 in a mass grave.

The scale of the horror was even greater than already shocking evidence that had emerged when Russian troops retreated from other parts of the country months earlier. This tragedy is even worse than the tragedy in Bucha, said Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraines minister of internal affairs, referring to the city near Kyiv that up until the Izium discovery was the emblem for atrocities perpetrated by Russian forces. Many quickly pointed to more horrors likely to remain undiscovered, in cities and villages that are still under Russian control.

As dozens of Ukrainian investigators, dressed in hospital gowns and carrying shovels, began to exhume the desiccated bodies, questions that for months had preoccupied Ukrainian and foreign officials, as well as local and international human rights groups, came to the forefront once again: What would justice for the dead in Izium and their loved ones look like? How would both those materially responsible and those who gave them orders be held accountable? And whose job was it to deliver that justice?

Ukraines prosecutor general, faced with the enormous task of documenting the abuses in the midst of an active conflict, said last month that his office had gathered evidence of more than 34,000 potential war crimes a colossal figure no law enforcement authority can realisticallybe expected to fully investigate, let alone prosecute. While some experts caution thatnot allthose crimes may meet the legal definition of war crime, they recognized the scale of the evidence is staggering.

Alongside Ukrainian officials, the gathering of evidence and testimony has been conducted by several local civil society groups, international human rights organizations with teams on the ground,anda growing number of open source intelligence groups documenting the abuses remotely. Several countries have launched their own investigations, primarily relying on interviews with Ukrainian refugees within their borders. Additionally, monitors with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, have documented abuses in Ukraine since 2014. There is a U.N.-led Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine and a U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission.

Some of the people working on documentation efforts in Ukraine have referred to the ever-growing list of groups and institutions involved as a bit of a circus. Others cautioned that the effort risked turning into an unhelpful competition for funding and access. But there is plenty of work to be done, they also pointed out, and many groups have begun to tackle issues of cooperation, transparency, and burden-sharing. We have many different actors, but on the other hand, we have a tremendous scale of disaster, said Pechonchyk. Still, she added, All of this is important only to convince other nations that something terrible is happening in Ukraine, but thats all that it is. It wont stop Russia.

An elderly woman reacts near the exhumed grave of her grandson at the site of a mass burial on Sept. 23, 2022, in Izium, Ukraine. Her grandson Danylo, 19, died on May 4 during Russian shelling.

Photo: Oleksandra Novosel/Global Images Ukraine via Getty

While the most recent invasion has brought scores of foreign investigators to Ukraine, civil society groups there had been engaged in the same documentation effort since 2014, with far less international interest and support.

No one was listening to us seriously, said Pechonchyk, so Russia used these years to pump up its war machine and prepare this new aggression, and now we are paying with the lives of our people. Now some of the things we have been saying all these years have become more clear for other democratic governments, but unfortunately, for us its too late.

Whats at stake in Ukraine, she added, is not only justice for Ukrainians but also the credibility of the very apparatus of international accountability. The failure of existing mechanisms to stop the war is the reason why she and other human rights activists have joined Ukrainian authorities in calling on the international community to support Ukraines military. As human rights defenders, as lawyers, and people who believed in these principles, that means that justice is useless, she said.

What we needtoday is weapons, echoed Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights attorney and headof the Center for Civil Liberties,a prominent human rights group which onFriday was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Maybe its weird to hear that from a human rights lawyer, but Ill be very honest with you: I have spent 20 years defending human rights, and now I have no legal instrument which has worked in this situation.

When Russia launched its invasion, Matviichuks group, which had been monitoring Russian offenses since the invasion of Crimea, relied on volunteers across the country to document abuses, including some operating underground from areas under Russian control. The volunteers used a simple questionnaire to gather information, and recorded video or audio testimonies of victims and witnesses, with contact information for trained investigators to follow up. We received a lot of stories, very quickly, said Matviichuk. We have documented more than 18,000 crimes and this is just the tip of the iceberg because Russia uses war crimes as a method of war.

But while her group is assembling an ambitious record, she often interrogates herself about the purpose of it all.

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Were not historians, were not doing this for the national archives. We do it for future justice, she said. The question is, who will deliver justice for hundreds of thousands of victims? Widely available technology had made gathering documentation more accessible, but what to do with that vast amount of evidence remained less clear. In the 21st century, because of technology, we have a lot of ways to document war crimes, she said. What is still lacking in the 21st century is an effective mechanism to bring perpetrators to justice.

The failure to bring perpetrators to justice emboldens them to carry out greater abuses, she and others noted. All this which we have observed in Ukraine is the result of total impunity, she said, listing a number of countries in which Russian forces have been accused of widespread abuses. In Chechnya, in Moldova, in Georgia, in Mali, in Libya, in Syria and they have never been punished.

In Syria, in particular, Russian forces were repeatedly accused of war crimes, including over their role in the monthlong bombing of Aleppo in 2016, which killed more than 440 civilians. Russia supported the violent regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad throughout Syrias decadelong war, at first with military aid and later through direct military intervention, including the deployment of hundreds of mercenaries. Human Rights Watch noted that some of the same tactics Russia deployed in Syria like the indiscriminate use of airstrikes, deliberate targeting of medical facilities, and use of weapons such as cluster munitions offered a playbook for its subsequent actions in Ukraine. Russian crimes in Syria received far less attention and calls for accountability than similar crimes in Ukraine are now prompting. But accountability matters precisely because its absence inevitably yields more abuses, rights observers stress.

Ibrahim Olabi, a human rights attorney with the group Guernica 37 whose advocacy has focused on Syria and who is now advising Ukrainian groups doing similar work, noted that the abusesRussia committed in Ukraine have reminded the world of those it also committed in Syria.

While some called out double standards, I personally am happy with how the world responded to Ukraine for a number of reasons, including that it has exposed a big perpetrator that we have a problem with in Syria, he told The Intercept. Syria keeps getting mentioned by Ukrainians. Theyll say, You let Russia off the hook in Syria, and now look what they did to us.

While the scale and horror of the abuses in Ukraine have plenty of precedent in other conflicts, the amount of evidence rapidly emerging from there and the level of international insistence on accountability mark a significant departure from the ways the world has responded to other conflicts.

The amount of digital, remotely collectible evidence of alleged gross violations in Ukraine is unheralded in terms of its volume, its temporal cadence. How often its available and the diversity of sources, ranging from commercial UAVs, to call detail record data, to unencrypted communications, to imagery weve never had this much, this often, said Raymond, the human rights investigator. The second thing is, weve never had this much focus in terms of resources, support from donor governments and the private sector, multiple types of institutions, to collect it and act on it.

For those like him, who have been documenting war crimes in conflicts that have received far less sympathy than Ukraine, the sudden influx of support has been poignant. I have this sort of whiplash on a daily basis, he said. You cant tell the story of Ukraine without talking about the fundamental disparity in political will and in resources.

That disparity comes from the fact that the conflict in Ukraine has been highly televised, he suggested, that there is a more clearly identified adversary, and that the narrative of the conflict speaks to European and American audiences more directly. Theres this broader narrative, Syria, thats not about the future of NATO and American freedom, its people killing each other, he said. This relates to American interests in a way thats constantly reinforced. If you talk to someone on the street and ask them in a double-blind survey, How much do you care about Syria going to an international tribunal? Theyll say, Maybe, I guess so, I dont really know. If you ask them about Ukraine, you will overwhelmingly get, Oh yeah, lets get Putin.

Thats why those seeking accountability for the crimes committed in Ukraine should also focus on another fundamental question, Raymond stressed: How do we make Ukraine a precedent that can apply to other places where accountability is needed, so its not just a one-off?

How do we make Ukraine a precedent that can apply to other places where accountability is needed, so its not just a one-off?

He and others caution that the international legal system is only one avenue toward justice. Even with large amounts of evidence, prosecutions are no guarantee of a conviction, and there are risks to investing in trials as the only way to achieve accountability. Justice matters even when you dont know whether its going to succeed. You just have to do it. Its a practice,said Raymond.

Courts are one element of the fight against impunity; the fight against impunity is an ongoing process involving many forums and activities, echoed Olabi, who also cautioned that in the context of a prosecution, the accused would have legal arguments in their defense. If you argue aggression, one may respond that the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO could be seen as provocation. If you notice Putins speech when he first announced the invasion, he referred to Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, the right to self-defense. Thats his argument: that what hes doing is not aggression, its collective self-defense. Its a super weak argument, but it shows you the importance of law as a tool, that even a lawless actor is willing to refer to it.

Delivering justice through a framework whether the ICCs or a special tribunals whose authority is not recognized by all implicated parties would also raise a new set of questions, including about the viability of international enforcement mechanisms. But prosecuting the crime of aggression, regardless of the outcome in court, and even though Russia is not the first country to have been accused of it, would set a precedent the international community has not yet attempted.

Ukraine is a chance, said Matviichuk. Ukraines lessons can save peoples lives in other countries.

Continued here:

Will Putin Face Prosecution for the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine? - The Intercept

The Kerch bridge from Russia to Crimea a hated symbol of the Kremlins occupation of the southern Ukrainian peninsular has been hit by a massive explosion on the span that carries railway traffic. Images from the bridge showed a fiercely burning fire engulfing at least two railway carriages from a train on the bridge, accompanied by a vast column of black smoke.

A series of explosions shook Kharkiv early on Saturday, sending towering plumes of smoke into the sky and triggering a series of secondary explosions in the eastern Ukraine city. Associated Press reported there were no immediate reports of casualties. The blasts came hours after Russia concentrated attacks on areas it illegally annexed.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Russian officials have begun to prepare their society for the possible use of nuclear weapons in the war. The Ukrainian president denied having called for strikes on Russia, urging instead that pre-emptive sanctions be imposed on Moscow, in an interview with the BBC.

Russia has targeted Zaporizhzhia with explosive-packed kamikaze drones for the first time, as the death toll from a missile strike on an apartment building in the city rose to 11. The regional governor, Oleksandr Starukh, said Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones damaged two infrastructure facilities in the city. He said other missiles also struck the city again, injuring one person. The Iranian foreign ministry has denied supplying the drones to Russia.

The Russian justice ministry has declared one of the countrys most popular rappers to be a foreign agent, a designation that has been used to harass Kremlin critics and journalists. Oxxxymiron real name Miron Fyodorov was added to a list of foreign agents alongside four journalists and Dmitry Glukhovsky, a prominent writer. The rapper has called the Kremlins Ukraine offensive a catastrophe and a crime.

Ukrainian authorities found a mass grave in the recently recaptured eastern town of Lyman in Donetsk and it was unclear yet how many bodies it held, the regional governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said in an online post on Friday. Separately, the Ukrinform news agency cited a senior police official as saying the grave contained 180 bodies.

The bodies of 534 civilians including 19 children were found in the north-eastern Kharkiv region since Russian troops left, Serhiy Bolvinov of the national police in Kharkiv said. That included 447 bodies found in Izium. He also said investigators had found evidence of 22 sites being used as torture rooms.

Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces have recaptured nearly 2,500 sq km (965 sq miles) of territory from Russia in the counteroffensive that began late last month. This week alone, our soldiers liberated 776 square kilometres of territory in the east of our country and 29 settlements, including six in Lugansk region, the Ukrainian president said on Friday.

Russia has reportedly sacked the commander of its eastern military district, Col Gen Alexander Chaiko, the news outlet RBC has reported. His reported departure marks the latest in a series of top officials to be fired after defeats and humiliations in the war in Ukraine.

Joe Biden has warned the world could face Armageddon if Vladimir Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to win the war in Ukraine. The US president made his most outspoken remarks to date about the threat of nuclear war, saying it was the closest the world had come to nuclear catastrophe for 60 years, since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.

The US does not have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons, the White House said. Asked about Bidens comments, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said: He was reinforcing what we have been saying, which is how seriously ... we take these threats.

The 2022 Nobel peace prize has been awarded to human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski from Belarus, the Russian human rights organisation Memorial and the Ukrainian human rights organisation Centre for Civil Liberties. Oleksandra Matviychuk, the centres head, said on Facebook after the award that Vladimir Putin as well as the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, and other war criminals should face an international tribunal, and Russia should be excluded from the UN security council for systematic violations of the UN charter.

The International Monetary Fund has announced it will provide $1.3bn in emergency aid to Ukraine through its new food crisis assistance program.

A member of Putins inner circle directly confronted the Russian president over mistakes and failings in the war in Ukraine, the Washington Post has reported, citing US intelligence.

At least five people were killed and as many injured after Ukrainian forces struck a bus while shelling a strategically important bridge in the Russian-controlled part of Ukraines southern Kherson region, Russias Tass news agency has reported.

The armed forces headquarters of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic has claimed to have captured three settlements from Ukrainian forces in Donetsk.

The office of Turkeys president, Recep Tayyip Erdoan, said after a call with Putin that the pair discussed the latest developments in Ukraine, and Erdoan repeated Ankaras willingness to do its part to peacefully resolve the war.

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, has congratulated Putin on his 70th birthday, applauding him for his distinguished leadership and strong will. Kim spoke of Putins achievements in building powerful Russia and said the Russian leader was enjoying high respects and support from the broad masses of people.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 227 of the invasion - The Guardian

Kalush Orchestra from Ukraine perform during the Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy, on May 14. The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest will be staged in the English city of Liverpool after Britain was asked to hold the event on behalf of Ukraine. Luca Bruno/AP hide caption

Kalush Orchestra from Ukraine perform during the Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy, on May 14. The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest will be staged in the English city of Liverpool after Britain was asked to hold the event on behalf of Ukraine.

LONDON The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest will be staged in the English city of Liverpool, the BBC said Friday, after Britain was asked to hold the event on behalf of designated host country Ukraine.

The birthplace of The Beatles beat Glasgow, Scotland, the other U.K. finalist. In all, seven British cities had applied to hold the pan-continental music competition. The 2023 Eurovision final will be held on May 13.

Ukraine won the right to host the pop extravaganza when its entry, folk-rap ensemble Kalush Orchestra, won this year's contest. Britain's Sam Ryder came second.

Organizers concluded it was too risky to stage the event in Ukraine, so the 2023 contest went to Britain, which says the event will be a celebration of Ukrainian culture and creativity.

BBC Director-General Tim Davie said Liverpool, "the undisputed capital of pop music," would be "an amazing host." British Prime Minister Liz Truss said on Twitter that "Liverpool will put on an unforgettable show which celebrates the rich culture and creativity of Ukraine."

Kalush Orchestra said it was pleased with the choice.

"Playing in the same place that The Beatles started out will be a moment we'll never forget!" the band said. "Although we are sad that next year's competition cannot take place in our homeland, we know that the people of Liverpool will be warm hosts and the organizers will be able to add a real Ukrainian flavor to Eurovision 2023 in this city."

Founded in 1956 to help unite a continent scarred by World War II, Eurovision has grown to include more than 40 countries, including non-European nations such as Israel and Australia.

Organizers strive to keep pop and politics apart banning overtly political symbols and lyrics but global tensions have often imposed themselves on the contest. Russia was kicked out of this year's competition because of its invasion of Ukraine.

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Liverpool will host the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest on behalf of Ukraine - NPR

FULTON, Mo. The invasion of Ukraine awakened free countries to the threat posed by Russia and Vladimir Putin, but whether they will sustain that resistance to dictators is an open question, former world chess champion Garry Kasparov said Friday during a speech at Westminster College.

On the Missouri campus where Winston Churchill warned in 1946 that the Soviet Union was cementing its hold on Eastern Europebehind an Iron Curtain, Kasparov said it is again time to confront the evil of authoritarianism.

Churchills speech, The Sinews of Peace, helped inspire President Harry Trumans policies of containment and the creation of NATO. Kasparov, a long-time critic of Putin, said a grand alliance of democracies can show dictators that freedom, and not profits, will define their future relations.

In 2015, Kasparov wrote a book titledWinter is Comingwarning that the weak international response to Russias invasion of the Crimea would embolden Putin.

Today there is a clear and present danger, Kasparov said. Winter is here. It is still unclear if the free world is willing and able to meet this challenge.

Kasparov, who left Russia in 2013 as his political activity made life there more and more uncertain, made his remarks as he gave theEnid and R. Crosby Kemper Lecture during the39th International Churchill Conferencesponsored by Westminster. He delivered his half-hour talk in the restored St. Mary the Virgin, Aldermanbury, Church, bombed in London by the Nazis in World War II and moved to Fulton to house theNational Churchill Museum.

As he began his speech, Kasparov recognized other dissidents who accompanied him and who are fighting for freedom in their home countries, including Syria, Venezuela and Iran.

In Iran, women have taken to the streets inprotest of strict Islamic controlson their lives.

Russians should be in the streets protesting Putin, Kasparov said.

If only Russian men were as brave as Iranian women, he said.

Kasparov grew up under communism in the Soviet Union and became the youngest world chess champion in 1985 at the age of 22. He was the worlds highest rated player when he retired in 2005.

He became involved in politics after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

It was a glorious day, a day of celebration and a huge step forward for global freedom, Kasparov said. The problem was the next day.

Unlike Churchill and President Harry Truman, who brought Churchill to his home state for the 1946 speech, world leaders did not act to preserve the freedom won at the end of the Cold War, he said.

In 1991, unlike in 1946, we had managers instead of leaders, Kasparov said.

Hes been warning about the rise of Putin since 2001, Kasparov said. But Western Europe and the United States were more interested in accommodation, seeking profit in the revived Russian economy and ignoring the increasing repression.

In the 1930s, he noted, the appeasers of Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler in Britain and France were seeking peace at any cost.

It was a brutal lesson to learn how high that cost was, Kasparov said.

Now, he said, Ukraine is paying the price of appeasing Putin.

The Ukrainians have reminded us what it looks like to fight for your land, your freedom, your family, he said.

Speaking to reporters after the speech, Kasparov said U.S. administrations of both parties are to blame for not being tougher with Putin. But he said President Joe Bidens administration is doing the right things to support Ukraine.

He is concerned that former President Donald Trump will win another term in 2024 and cut off support for Ukraine. Trumps supporters in Congress vote against aid to Ukraine and his cheerleaders on Fox News, especially Tucker Carlson, are telling Trump supporters that Putin is justified in the war.

I couldnt believe I would hear Russian propaganda talking points on American television, Kasparov said. I am still waiting for the true followers of Ronald Reagan to take their party back.

Kasparov joins a distinguished list of international leaders who have used Westminster as their venue in honor of Churchill, including Reagan, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and former Polish President Lech Walesa.

Kasparov made his homage to Churchill in the title of his speech, calling it The New Sinews of Peace, and made several references to the inspirational British war time leader.

Few people outside, and many inside, Britain held out hope for victory over Hitler after the defeat of France in 1940. But Churchill rallied his nation and held out until the Soviet Union and the United States were drawn into the war.

OnJune 4, 1940, in a speech to Parliament, Churchill promised that we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be.

In February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, many expected a quick defeat and the U.S. offered to fly President Volodymyr Zelensky to safety. Zelensky gave the modern equivalent of Churchills words, Kasparov said.

The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride, Zelensky told the U.S.,according to the embassyin Kyiv.

Churchills great-grandson Jack Churchill, who attended the speech, said he is 100% in agreement with Kasparov on the need to confront Putin and for the democracies to band together as they did after the 1946 speech.

I am very proud that my great-grandfather is an inspiration to the next generation of people fighting for freedom and democracy, Churchill said.

It is vital that the U.S. not diminish its support for Ukraine, Kasparov said in his speech. The United States, the arsenal of democracy in World War II, has assumed that role for Ukraine.

An America that does not defend liberty everywhere will see decay at home, a process that is already happening, Kasparov said.

The weapons being provided in aid and the extra costs for consumers because the war has disrupted energy supplies is a bargain, Kasparov said.

Who are we to complain about the price of gas, he said, when Ukranians are paying in blood for our sins?

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Winter is here: Chess champion Kasparov warns that Ukraine war is a test for democracies - Kansas Reflector

Ukraines counteroffensive against Russia is defying the odds, and it has sent Russian President Vladimir Putin to a new point of desperation: On Friday, he announced that Russia had, in an illegal move, annexed four occupied regions in Ukraine.

Earlier in the week he mobilized hundreds of thousands of Russians, as just as many Russians seem to be fleeing the country to avoid fighting in the conflict.

Over the weekend, Russian troops retreated from Lyman. Attention is now being focused on Ukrainian gains in Kherson, one of the regions that Putin had annexed.

But there are still big questions about where the war goes from here and what will shape the conflict this winter and onward. To understand them, I spoke with experts on Europe, Russia, and international security, and listened to European leaders speaking candidly on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week.

Three determining factors will play an outsized role in Ukraines future: support from America and European partners, the risks that Putin is willing to take, and the conflicting definitions of what victory might look like.

The war is being fought in Ukraine, and Ukrainians are certainly suffering most. But the costs incurred by Ukraines primary backers, the United States and Europe, will determine Ukraines capacity in defending itself against Russia. Without Western support, Ukraines recent victories in the counteroffensive will be difficult to sustain.

Western support for Ukraine is a crucial variable. The sanctions that the US, Western Europe, and some Asian countries have imposed on Russia continue to have a boomerang effect on the world economy. The winter ahead will change the fighting conditions on the ground and, equally importantly, the cold weather will remind Europe of its dependence on Russian fossil fuels for heat. If inflation continues and the energy crisis looms, will the US and an at times divided Europe become fatigued with the war and become less inclined to support it?

The US has sent more than $14 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. With each package comes new questions around whether this volume of security aid can be sustained not just economically, but whether enough missiles and bullets exist in Western stockpiles to bolster Ukraine. Some defense experts are warning that the conflict is consuming weapons stockpiles faster than nations can refill them.

The Wests willingness to continue to send weapons may also depend on Ukraines momentum on the battlefield, says Kristine Berzina, a security researcher at the German Marshall Fund. If the underdog is doing well, even if things are hard, theres something in our societies where supporting the underdog as it takes on the big bad guy successfully its just a good story. How can you not help them? she said. Whereas if it feels pessimistic and terrible and depressing, well, then it feels like a lost cause.

A recent survey fielded by Data for Progress and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft suggests that only 6 percent of Americans polled see the Russian war in Ukraine as one of the top three most important issues facing America today. It ranked last, far behind inflation, the economy, and many domestic issues.

Another recent survey of 14 countries in Europe and North America from the German Marshall Fund found that in Italy, France, and Canada, climate is viewed as the primary security challenge, while the countries closer to Russia and Ukraine, on the eastern edges of Europe, named Russia or wars between countries

Though American military aid has been robust, Europes support has been much more mixed, with some European countries spending less on the war than they are spending on imported Russian oil and gas. That point about the difference between the kind of aid that has been provided to Ukraine versus whats been paid in oil revenue, it just blows my mind every time I hear it, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Transatlantic program at the Center for a New American Security and a former US intelligence official with ties to the Biden administration, said recently on the New York Timess Ezra Klein Show. Why is it happening? I wish I knew. I dont have a good answer, she said.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, told me that the European Commission has not held up its commitments. She says the sluggishness in disbursing economic aid to Ukraine is partly political but mostly due to bureaucratic hurdles.

So far, European countries, even Hungary, have largely supported Ukraine. But for European leaders staunchly backing Ukraine, political challenges may emerge as the war further exacerbates domestic economic issues. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnsons exit this summer was hastened by the economy and inflation, issues whose multiple causes include the effects of the Ukraine conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in June. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghis government was split over Ukraine; it wasnt the only reason for the collapse of his coalition, and now the far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is his successor. The war was not the immediate cause of any political leaders downfall, but political changes in Europe are a reminder that governance is deeply connected to the emerging energy and economic crises.

If support in Europe wanes, theres also the question of whether the US will be able to rally it. Since the Cold War, the US has put most of its military and diplomatic focus on first the Middle East and then, more recently, Asia. Washington just has no real grasp of Europe today, doesnt understand the centrality of the European Union, and tries to operate as if it doesnt exist, Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me in June, in advance of a NATO summit.

The Biden administration has been hugely successful in dispatching US diplomats to unify Europe, but Washington is still operating with a deficit on the continent and without a deep understanding of a sustainable long-term Europe policy.

Putins announcement of the annexation of Russian-held territories in Ukraine was a show of weakness, as was his partial mobilization of 300,000 troops. His unpredictability is a major X factor.

Its unlikely that the mobilization will be effective because Russia doesnt seem to have the highly trained personnel or advanced weapons to quickly alter their position in the war. There will be bodies who will be there but they will not have equipment, they will not have significant training, and they will not really have the provisions for the conditions theyre going into, especially given that were again heading into the cold season, Berzina said.

That could mean an increasingly desperate Putin. Its quite existential for him. It always has been, said Jade McGlynn, a researcher of Russian studies at Middlebury College. His whole entire idea of what Russia is this great messianic power depends on having Ukraine.

Nowhere has that desperation been more apparent than in the rhetoric surrounding nuclear weapons. In the early hours of the war, Putin threatened consequences you have never seen against Ukraines supporters, and again in recent days he has offered veiled threats of using a small nuke. That would be norm-shattering and earth-shattering, figuratively and literally. Even threatening to use a nuke violates the norms of international relations.

Putin in his remarks on Friday emphasized that the United States was the only country that had used a nuclear weapon, (twice) on Japan during World War II. It seemed to be a retort to Bidens United Nations speech last week in which he chastised Putin for his reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the non-proliferation regime while minutes later praising President Harry Truman, the president who authorized those nuclear attacks.

Another concern is, if things continue to go badly for Putin, whether he will expand the theater of war to other fronts and countries.

In the category of desperate acts falls what may potentially be an act of self-sabotage, a Russian attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline that was reported earlier this week. It raises concerns that Russia may attack other critical energy infrastructure in Europe.

The nationalists in Russia, according to McGlynn, may pose the biggest threat to Putin, as they push him toward even more extreme means. They want him to go all-in on the war, even as the mobilization wont likely alter Russias footing.

The extent to which Putin might be willing to repress Russians is also important. The calling up of reserves is one indicator, as is the shuttering of the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta and other media outlets, and the arrests of critics and activists. That intensity of repression also limits the possibility for Russian domestic opposition standing up to Putin.

The country that so many analysts predicted would fall in the first week of the invasion in February has endured the first 200 days of war, and Ukrainians say they are confident in carrying on the fight so long as they have ample support from the West.

A senior Ukrainian official, speaking recently in New York on the condition of anonymity, said that Ukraine was united in its war against Russia and hugely depends on Western support. The truth is that the battlefield today is the negotiating table with Putin. Because he respects strength, they said.

We are going to fight until we defeat Russia, Oksana Nesterenko, a Ukrainian legal scholar currently at Princeton University, told me. Not because Ukrainians are so brave or have so many resources, she explained. Its about the future of the Ukrainian nation, about the future of Ukrainian democracy, Nesterenko says. We dont have any choice.

But there is a great deal of confusion as to how anyone defines victory. The Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Americans havent talked in specific terms about what we consider an acceptable outcome to this conflict, Thomas Graham, a Russia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me.

While the Ukrainians have expanded their demands in light of their successful counteroffensive and are now talking about nothing short of retaking the territory Russian has occupied since 2014, the United States and each European country seem to hold their own perspective. The Germans and the French, at the leadership level, would accept a negotiated solution that might include some territorial concessions on the part of Ukraine as a way of de-escalating and helping deal with what they see as an increasingly difficult socio-economic situation, Graham said.

On the Russian side, Putin initially claimed to want the demilitarization and de-Nazification in essence, regime change of Ukraine. And now he has annexed four provinces that he has long sought. The possibility that Russia could win on its terms, that possibility is now very remote, says Michael Kimmage, a Catholic University professor who specializes in Russia. I do think that we could, in a very worrisome way, enter into a nihilistic phase of the conflict where Russia is not able to impose victory on the war, but will try to impose defeat on the other side. And maybe thats the Russian version of victory in this war.

That would mean stretching the war on as long as possible, hence the massive mobilization, and the possibility of a war of attrition. McGlynn says that Putins notion of victory is at this point divorced from what the Russian army can actually do. What were most likely to see is a way to entrench a situation on the ground in areas that they already control, she told me.

In Washington, meanwhile, there has been little talk of what diplomacy among the parties might look like. Its not that a team of negotiators is going to hash out a settlement over carryout, but ongoing diplomatic engagement between the US and Russia is going to be needed on a variety of levels and in a variety of forums to set the conditions for a future resolution and even to address the narrow goal of averting any potential misunderstanding that could end up looking like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia expert Fiona Hill who served in the Trump administration recently emphasized to the New Yorker the risks of Putins brinkmanship and the misunderstanding it breeds. The problem is, of course, us misreading him, but also him misreading us, she said. More communication could help. But Secretary of State Tony Blinken hasnt met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov since January 2022 (they had a frank phone call in July). And the recent Data for Progress survey emphasized that a majority of Americans would like to see more diplomacy. A majority (57 percent) of Americans support US negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, even if it means Ukraine making some compromises with Russia, writes Jessica Rosenblum of the Quincy Institute.

The wars endgame may be a long way off. Still, its no small feat that Turkey has brokered a deal to get Ukrainian grain to countries that need it and Saudi Arabia arranged for a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. In the meantime, Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan hosted talks between senior officials from Azerbaijan and Armenia last week, but the Biden administration has hardly been discussing avenues for diplomacy with Russia.

Though Graham praises President Bidens handling of the war in Ukraine, he worries that the with-us-or-against-us rhetoric from the White House precludes opportunities for engagement with Russians. If I fault the administration in any way I dont think it has articulated in public what this conflict is really about, he told me. The US has alienated broad swaths of the Russian population through sanctions, and Biden has framed the conflict as an existential one between democracy and autocracy.

Existential conflicts have a way of not persuading the other side, perhaps, to negotiate a solution to this problem that meets their needs, their minimal security requirements, Graham told me. In general, I think it is inappropriate to frame conflicts as a struggle between good and evil.

Update, October 3, 10:45 am: This story was originally published on October 1 and has been updated to include Russias retreat from Lyman.

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Ukraine is staying united in its war against Russia. What would victory look like? - Vox.com

Ever since Ukraine launched a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces in late August, American officials have tried to claim credit, insisting that U.S. intelligence has been key to Ukraines battlefield victories.

Yet U.S. officials have simultaneously downplayed their intelligence failures in Ukraine especially their glaring mistakes at the outset of the war. When Putin invaded in February, U.S. intelligence officials told the White House that Russia would win in a matter of days by quickly overwhelming the Ukrainian army, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, who asked not to be named to discuss sensitive information.

The Central Intelligence Agency was so pessimistic about Ukraines chances that officials told President Joe Biden and other policymakers that the best they could expect was that the remnants of Ukraines defeated forces would mount an insurgency, a guerrilla war against the Russian occupiers. By the time of the February invasion, the CIA was already planning how to provide covert support for a Ukrainian insurgency following a Russian military victory, the officials said.

U.S. intelligence reports at the time predicted that Kyiv would fall quickly, perhaps in a week or two at the most. The predictions spurred the Biden administration to secretly withdraw some key U.S. intelligence assets from Ukraine, including covert former special operations personnel on contract with the CIA, the current and former officials said.Their account was backed up by a Naval officer and a former Navy SEAL, who were aware of the movements and who also asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The CIA got it completely wrong, said one former senior U.S. intelligence official, who is knowledgeable about what the CIA was reporting when the Russian invasion began. They thought Russia would win right away.

When it became clear that the agencys predictions of a rapid Russian victory had been wrong, the Biden administration sent the clandestine assets that had been pulled out of Ukraine back into the country, the military and intelligence officials said. One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency never completely left.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February,several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said.The finding indicates that the president hasquietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administrations decision to conduct a broad program ofclandestineoperations inside the country. One former special forces officer said that Biden amended a preexisting finding, originally approved during the Obama administration, that was designed to counter malign foreign influence activities.A former CIA officer told The Intercept that Bidens use of the preexisting finding has frustrated some intelligence officials, who believe that U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict differs so much from the spirit of the finding that it should merit a new one.A CIA spokesperson declined to comment about whether there is a presidential covert action finding for operations in Ukraine.

The U.S. intelligence communitys stunning failure at the beginning of the war to recognize the fundamental weaknesses in the Russian system mirrors its blindness to the military and economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when Washington failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. While not all U.S. intelligence analysts underestimated the Ukrainian will to fight, the communitys missteps in Ukraine came just months after American intelligence gravely underestimated how fast the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan would collapse in 2021, leading to a rapid takeover by the Taliban.

Some senior U.S. intelligence officials have since admitted they were wrong in projecting a quick Russian victory. In March, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, acknowledged during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that the CIA didnt do well in terms of predicting the military challenges that [Putin] has encountered with his own military.

The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said at the same March hearing that my view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be, therefore I questioned their will to fight, [and] that was a bad assessment on my part.

I think assessing morale, and a will to fight is a very difficult analytical task, he added. We had different inputs from different organizations. And at least from my perspective as director, I did not do as well as I could have.

Yet these admissions mask a more fundamental failure that officials have not fully acknowledged: U.S. intelligence did not recognize the significance of rampant corruption and incompetence in the Putin regime, particularly in both the Russian army and Moscows defense industries, the current and former intelligence officials said. U.S. intelligence missed the impact of corrupt insider dealing and deceit among Putin loyalists in Moscows defense establishment, which has left the Russian army a brittle and hollow shell.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system, said the former senior intelligence official. They missed it, and ignored any evidence of it.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system.

Following a string of Russian defeats, even prominent Russian analysts have begun to openly blame the corruption and deceit that plagues the Russian system. On Russian television last weekend, Andrey Gurulyov, the former deputy commander of Russias southern military district and now a member of the Russian Duma, blamed his countrys losses on a system of lies, top to bottom.

Additionally, Putin imposed an invasion plan on the Russian military that was impossible to achieve, one current U.S. official argued. You cant really separate out the issue of Russian military competency from the fact that they were shackled to an impossible plan, which led to poor military preparation, the official said.

Remains of Russian uniforms in the destroyed village of Shandryholove near Lyman, Ukraine, on Oct.3, 2022.

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Getty Images

The inability of the U.S. intelligence community to recognize the significance of Russian corruption appears to be the result of an over-reliance on technical intelligence. Before the war, high-tech satellites and surveillance systems allowed the U.S. to track the deployment of Russian troops, tanks, and planes, and to eavesdrop on Russian military officials, enabling U.S. intelligence to accurately predict the timing of the invasion. But it would have needed more human spies inside Russia to see that the Russian army and defense industries were deeply corrupt.

Since the war began, a long list of weaknesses in the Russian military and its defense industries have been exposed, symbolized by the so-called jack-in-the-box flaw in Russian tanks. Ukrainian forces quickly learned that one well-placed shot could blow off a Russian tank turret, sending it sky high and killing the entire crew. It became clear that Russian tanks had been designed and built cheaply with ammunition stored openly in a ring inside the turret that can explode when the turret is hit and that crew safety had not been prioritized. In July, Adm. Tony Radakin, Britains military chief, said that Russia had lost almost 1,700 tanks in Ukraine.

Weak leadership, poor training, and low morale have led to huge casualties among Russian rank and file soldiers. In August, the Pentagon estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Ukraine has also suffered huge casualties, but Russian front-line strength has been badly weakened.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest mysteries for U.S. analysts has been Russias failure to gain control of Ukraines skies, despite having a far larger air force. Aircraft design flaws, poor pilot training, and gaps in aircraft maintenance have left Russian aircraft vulnerable to Ukraines air defenses, which have been bolstered with Stinger missiles and other Western air defense systems.

The failure of U.S. intelligence to see the dysfunction in the Russian army and defense industries means that it also didnt foresee Russias ongoing battlefield defeats, which are now having a profound political and social impact on both Putin and Russia. Putin has ordered a partial mobilization to replace heavy battlefield losses,sparking large-scale protests. At least 200,000 people have already fled Russia, including thousands of young men seeking to avoid conscription.

More:

CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong? - The Intercept

As Russian troops have flooded into Ukraines borders for the past eight monthsand with an ongoing mobilization of hundreds of thousands more underwaythe Western world has taken drastic measures to cut the economic ties that fuel Russias invasion and occupation. But even as those global sanctions have carefully excised Russia from global commerce, millions of dollars have continued to flow directly to Russian military and paramilitary groups in a form thats proven harder to control: cryptocurrency.

Since Russia launched its full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February, at least $4 million worth of cryptocurrency has been collected by groups supporting Russias military in Ukraine, researchers have found. According to analyses by cryptocurrency-tracing firms Chainalysis, Elliptic, and TRM Labs, as well as investigators at Binance, the worlds largest cryptocurrency exchange, recipients include paramilitary groups offering ammunition and equipment, military contractors, and weapons manufacturers. That flow of funds, often to officially sanctioned groups, shows no sign of abating and may even be accelerating: Chainalysis traced roughly $1.8 million in funding to the Russian military groups in just the past two months, nearly matching the $2.2 million it found the groups received in the five months prior. And despite the ability to trace those funds, freezing or blocking them has proven difficult, due largely to unregulated or sanctioned cryptocurrency exchangesmost of them based in Russiacashing out millions in donations earmarked for invaders.

Our aim is to identify all the crypto wallets being used by Russian military groups and the people helping them; to find, seize and block all this activity that is helping to buy the bullets, the ammunition of this occupation, says Serhii Kropyva, who until recently served as deputy of Ukraines Cyber Police and advisor to the countrys prosecutor general. With the close cooperation of companies like Chainalysis and Binance, we can see all the wallets involved in this criminal activity, these money flows of millions of dollars. But we can, unfortunately, see that the transfer is continuing all the time.

In separate reports, the cryptocurrency-tracing firms and Binances investigations team each tracked donations to the Russian war effort that very often began with public posts on the messaging app Telegram soliciting crowdfunded donations. Chainalysis, for instance, found Telegram posts from organizations including the pro-Russian media sites Rybar and Southfront, as well as the paramilitary group Rusichwhich has ties to the notorious Wagner mercenary groupall posting cryptocurrency donation addresses to Telegram. These posts told followers that the money raised there would be used for everything from weaponized drones to radios, rifle accessories, and body armor. In another instance, Chainalysis points to a fundraiser by a group called Project Terricon that attempted to auction NFTs to support pro-Russian militia groups in Eastern Ukraine, though the NFTs were removed from the marketplace they were hosted on before any bids were placed.

Binances investigations team, in its own report, found that a total of $4.2 million in crypto had been funneled to Russian military groups since February. The groups named in its research didnt entirely overlap with those named in Chainalysis report, suggesting that the overall funding could be far greater than either Binances or Chainalysis total. Binance, for instance, points to a pro-Russian cultural heritage group known as MOO Veche that has carried out fundraisers for military equipment similar to the kinds funded by the groups Chainalysis flagged. While Binance, TRM Labs, and Elliptic all name MOO Veche as a major fundraiser, Elliptic traced $1.7 million in crypto donations to the group, far more than the other researchers.

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The Fight to Cut Off the Crypto Fueling Russia's Ukraine Invasion - WIRED

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Russia attacked the Ukrainian presidents hometown and other targets Sunday with suicide drones, and Ukraine took back full control of a strategic eastern city in a counteroffensive that has reshaped the war.

Russias loss of the eastern city of Lyman, which it had been using as a transport and logistics hub, is a new blow to the Kremlin as it seeks to escalate the war by illegally annexing four regions of Ukraine and heightening threats to use nuclear force.

Russian President Vladimir Putins land grab has threatened to push the conflict to a dangerous new level. It also prompted Ukraine to formally apply for fast-track NATO membership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Sunday that his forces now control Lyman: As of 12:30 p.m. (0930 GMT) Lyman is cleared fully. Thank you to our militaries, our warriors, he said in a video address.

Russias military didnt comment Sunday on Lyman, after announcing Saturday that it was withdrawing its forces there to more favorable positions.

The British military described the recapture of Lyman as a significant political setback for Moscow, and Ukraine appeared to swiftly capitalize on its gains.

Hours after Zelenskyys announcement, Ukrainian media shared an image of Ukrainian troops carrying the countrys yellow-and-blue flag in front of a statue marking the village of Torske, 15 kilometers (9 miles) east of Lyman and within sight of the Russian-held Luhansk region.

Shortly later, a video posted online showed one Ukrainian soldier saying that Kyivs forces had begun to target the city of Kreminna, just across the border in Luhansk. Outgoing artillery could be heard in the background. Russian military correspondents also acknowledged Ukrainian attacks targeting Kreminna.

In another online photo, an Ukrainian soldier stood before giant watermelon landmark just south of the village of Novovorontsovka on the banks of the Dnieper River, along the Russian-controlled province of Khersons northern edge. A Ukrainian flag flew above the statue as several apparently deactivated landmines lay beside it.

While Ukrainian forces did not immediately acknowledge a breakthrough, writers close to the Russian military have described a new offensive by Kyiv in the Kherson region.

In southern Ukraine, Zelenskyys hometown of Krivyi Rih came under Russian attack by a suicide drone that destroyed two stories of a school early Sunday, the regional governor said. The Ukrainian air force said Sunday it shot down five Iranian-made drones overnight, while two others made it through air defenses.

A car carrying four men seeking to forage for mushrooms in Ukraines Chernihiv region struck a mine, killing all those inside, authorities said Sunday.

The reports of military activity couldnt be immediately verified.

Ukrainian forces have retaken swaths of territory, notably in the northeast around Kharkiv, in a counteroffensive in recent weeks that has embarrassed the Kremlin and prompted rare domestic criticism of Putins war.

Lyman, which Ukraine recaptured by encircling Russian troops, is in the Donetsk region near the border with Luhansk, two of the four regions that Russia illegally annexed Friday after forcing what was left of the population to vote in referendums at gunpoint.

In his nightly address, Zelenskyy said: Over the past week, there have been more Ukrainian flags in the Donbas. In a week there will be even more.

In a daily intelligence briefing Sunday, the British Defense Ministry called Lyman crucial because it has a key road crossing over the Siversky Donets River, behind which Russia has been attempting to consolidate its defenses.

The Russian retreat from northeast Ukraine in recent weeks has revealed evidence of widespread, routine torture of both civilians and soldiers, notably in the strategic city of Izium, an Associated Press investigation has found.

AP journalists located 10 torture sites in the town, including a deep pit in a residential compound, a clammy underground jail that reeked of urine, a medical clinic and a kindergarten.

Recent developments have raised fears of all-out conflict between Russia and the West.

Putin frames the recent Ukrainian gains along with NATOs post-Soviet expansion as a U.S.-orchestrated effort to destroy Russia, and last week he heightened threats of nuclear force in some of his toughest, most anti-Western rhetoric to date.

Nine central and eastern European NATO members fearful that Russias aggression could eventually target them, too, issued a letter of support Sunday for Ukraine.

The leaders of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia issued a joint statement Sunday backing a path to NATO membership for Ukraine, and calling on all 30 members of the U.S.-led security bloc to ramp up military aid for Kyiv.

Germanys defense minister on Sunday announced the delivery of 16 wheeled armored howitzers produced in Slovakia to Ukraine next year. The weapons will be financed jointly with Denmark, Norway and Germany,

Russia moved ahead Sunday with steps meant to make its land grab look like a legal process aimed at helping people allegedly persecuted by Kyiv, with rubber-stamp approval by the Constitutional Court and draft laws being pushed through the Kremlin-friendly parliament.

Outside Russia, the Kremlins actions have been widely denounced as violating international law, with multiple EU countries summoning Russian ambassadors since Putin on Friday signed annexation treaties with Moscow-backed officials in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, international concerns are mounting about the fate of Europes largest nuclear plant after Russian forces detained its director for alleged questioning.

The International Atomic Energy Agency announced Sunday that its director-general, Rafael Grossi would visit Kyiv and Moscow in the coming days to discuss the situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Grossi is continuing to push for a nuclear safety and security zone around the site.

The Zaporizhzhia plant is in one of the four regions that Moscow illegally annexed on Friday, and repeatedly has been caught in the crossfire of the war. Ukrainian technicians have continued running the power station after Russian troops seized it but its last reactor was shut down in September as a precautionary measure.

Pope Francis on Sunday decried Russias nuclear threats and appealed to Putin to stop this spiral of violence and death.

___

Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Ukraine presses on with counteroffensive; Russia uses drones - The Associated Press

Russia appears to be using its most advanced operational fighter Su-35 employing at least half a century-old tactics!

The Russian armed forces are not on the verge of collapse. And No! The Su-35 doesnt lack the capability associated with it. And certainly not! Russian fighter pilots are not a bunch of kick-the-tire and light-the-jocks!

The apparent regression in employed tactics likely has an excellent reason. Russian forces appear to be adapting to the realities of a protracted conflict against an adversary drawing on an unending supply of troops, equipment, and ammunition from the West.

Reverting to proven old tactics is part of an approach that will allow Russia to fight for as long as it takes.

Russia chooses to keep its weapon systems affordable, often sacrificing capability in favor of affordability. The approach is justified, not just because the Russian ability to spend on defense is limited (its annual defense budget is less than Indias), but also because of the advantages of such an approach.

An affordable weapon system platform allows you to absorb limited losses while giving warriors more flexibility in employment. Increased risk to the platform becomes an option. The Su-35 is an example of affordable excellence!

Its a skillful air combat and ground attack fighter with characteristics sensor fusion & supermaneuverability of a 4.5 generation aircraft.

For ground attack, it can carry sensors & weapons that allow it to engage a ground target from medium altitude (out of MANPAD range) using stand-off weapons while suppressing enemy air defense (SEAD) systems. There is no need for a Su-35 to operate at low altitudes increasing risk from MANPADS.

Yet, in this video posted on Telegram, we see two RuAF Su-35s engaging a ground target in Ukraine in a very old-fashioned way at low altitudes within the MANPAD envelope!

One Su-35 mounts a CAP (Combat Air Patrol) overhead to detect threats, such as adversary aircraft & MANPAD launches. At the same time, the other descends to a very low height (3-500 ft above ground) and drops a bomb on a target making a relatively slow-speed bombing run.

Assuming no long lens was used, the bombing run was made from between 3-500 ft.

Here is the interesting detail, the target likely is a Ukrainian S-300 installation, going by the glimpses of a large erect vertical launch canister and the mast of a radar designed to detect low-flying aircraft. Notably, the attacking Su-35 is equipped with wingtip-mounted Khibiny EW pods.

This video grab shows what appears to be a missile canister

A video grab shows what seems to be a radar mast.

Before continuing, let me point out that no two F-35s would engage a ground target as the two Russian Su-35s do. Not even in an uncontested battlespace such as Syria, let alone Ukraine! The price tags on the F-35 would make the risk level unacceptable.

So why would a 4.5 Gen fighter aircraft expose itself to MANPADS and other adversary AD missiles to attack a ground target with a dumb bomb? Why not strike it with a cruise missile or a smart stand-off bomb?

Black Day For Russia? Two Tu-22 Bombers Reportedly Destroyed By Ukraine As Kerch Bridge Incident Shocks Moscow

Here are the possible reasons why the RuAF would choose to engage the target in the old-fashioned or, say, the non-American way.

The S-300 is a mobile AD system that rules out attacks using cruise missiles because they require target coordinates to be known before launch. A mobile target must be hunted down using satellites or ISR aircraft-based electronic & optical eavesdropping. Russia doesnt have the resources.

Attacking an S-300 system from medium altitudes using a targeting pod and inertially guided bomb with a terminal optical seeker would be complex because the S-300 has a very long reach & very high lethality against medium-altitude targets. For Russia, the option is likely also unaffordable in a protracted conflict.

Dumb bombs dropped from low altitudes can be as accurate as smart bombs dropped from medium altitudes and stand-off distances.

The Khibiny electronic-warfare self-defense system fitted on the Su-35 can detect & dupe surveillance & tracking emissions of AD radars & missiles. Missile Approach Warning (MAW) sensors and CAP eyeballs can alert Su-35 pilots to MANPAD launches.

The Su-35s supermaneuverability would add to the protection accruing from the self-protection suite of the fighter. With adequate warning, the Su-35 can outmaneuver a MAPAD

Russia is likely conserving its inventory of smart stand-off bombs.

Considering the above, if the presence of an S-300 battery in an area is known, an old-fashioned seek-and-destroy mission can be a very good option to neutralize it.

Seek and destroy, as the name suggests, entails going to the target area, visually acquiring the target, and then attacking, ensuring the absence of threats by setting up a CAP.

Using modern terminology, mounting the CAP would establish local air superiority! Really, there is a lot of old wine in new bottles.

Defense planners in India are likely closely following the ongoing Russian Special Military Operations (SMO). The fact that the SMO has turned out to be protracted needs New Delhi to rethink some of its assumptions most importantly, the belief that their future wars will be short-lived.

As Russia finds out, short-lived operations may not allow war aims to be achieved. So India must be prepared for long wars, using weapon systems, ammunition, sensors, and tactics suited to a protracted conflict.

Go here to see the original:

Russia Is Using Its Most Advanced 4.5-Gen Fighters To Bomb Ukraine Using Half A Century Old Tactics - EurAsian Times

From an elegant mansion in Kyivs government quarter, Tamila Tasheva is planning what the Ukrainian takeover of Crimea might look like.

Tasheva, president Volodymyr Zelenskiys top representative for Crimea, and her team spend their days discussing issues such as how many Ukrainian teachers or police should be sent to the peninsula if Kyiv regains control, and what else would be required to help reverse eight years of Russian rule.

No serious military analyst is suggesting that Ukraine is close to being in a position to regain Crimea, but the idea feels much less fanciful than it did a year ago.

This is moment X. Right now everything is happening in a way that it feels inevitable, said Tasheva. It may not happen tomorrow, but I think it will be much quicker than I thought a year ago.

Even as Russian President Vladimir Putin lays claim to more territory, with his attempted annexation of four Ukrainian regions on Friday, the mood in Kyiv is that a full victory ought to involve not just taking things back to how they were before the February invasion, but regaining all of Ukraines territory.

Before, Ukrainian officials said Crimea would be theirs again more out of hope than a firm belief it would actually happen. The same went for most western officials and diplomats, who privately suggested there was little chance of Kyiv ever restoring control.

Now, as Russia struggles on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, and cracks of dissent appear over president Putins unpopular mobilisation drive, some in Kyiv hope the writing is on the wall. Everything began with Crimea and everything will end with Crimea, said Zelenskiy, in an August speech.

The Crimea office was opened by Zelenskiy last year as part of a strategy known as the Crimea Platform, which is aimed at envisioning eventual Ukrainian control over the territory. Sculptures by Crimean artists dot the gardens: one emits the sounds of waves and dolphins to evoke the seaside resorts of the peninsula. Inside, large photographs of spectacular Crimean landscapes and activists jailed by Russian authorities hang from the walls. Tasheva, a former rights activist who is Crimean Tatar, has been in the role since April this year.

Ukrainian officials say targeting Crimea is key to stopping the Russian war machine in other parts of occupied Ukraine, and Kyiv appears to have done so several times in recent months, most notably in early August, when several explosions rocked the Saky airbase.

Crimea is the key base for their army reserves. Its where they have their bases for ammunition, hardware and soldiers, so of course destroying these bases is a major part of de-blockading our territory, said Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to Zelenskiy.

He said the attitude of Kyivs western partners, particularly the US, had changed over the summer. Until the middle of the summer our partners really had doubts that Crimea could be a legitimate target. Now they accept that given the intensity of this war its absolutely a legitimate target, said Podolyak.

Currently Kyiv did not have enough Himars missiles to use on Crimea, said Podolyak, and the systems could not reach much of the peninsula from Ukrainian positions with their range in any case. So for now we are working mainly through diversionary groups, and using the local partisans, the local partisan mood has grown significantly in the past few months, he said.

The US has so far declined to deliver ATACMS systems that have an even longer range than Himars, but if it does, Crimea is likely to be one of the first targets. I think soon were going to see the Ukrainians pushing long-range rocket launchers into position to start hitting targets in Crimea, and this will really cause a problem for the Russians, it could make Crimea untenable for them, said Ben Hodges, formerly the commander of the US Army in Europe.

Inside the peninsula, Russian authorities have stepped up a crackdown on dissent, and Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-installed leader of Crimea, went as far as to threaten that anyone who sang pro-Ukrainian songs would be prosecuted.

People who chant slogans, sing songs or nationalist hymns will be punished according to the criminal code, he said earlier this month, after six guests at a Crimean Tatar wedding were arrested when footage was shared of guests dancing to a song that calls for Ukraine to be freed from Muscovite shackles.

People who behave like this are traitors if you dont love our country then leave and go to the place you do love, said Aksyonov, who was a marginal local politician before Moscow installed him as leader in 2014.

Gauging the public mood in Crimea is difficult. Ukrainians say a number of surveys in recent years purporting to show that a majority of Crimeans are happy under Russian rule should be taken in the context of the Kremlins lack of tolerance of dissent and the exodus of large numbers of pro-Ukraine Crimeans after annexation. There is some anecdotal evidence that support for Russia could be waning.

Of course there are loads of people who are staunchly pro-Russian, but there are also many people who feel theyve been cheated over the past eight years, and feel increasingly uncomfortable with life under Moscow, said one Crimea resident who has fled the peninsula to escape Putins mobilisation decree.

In 2014 the Kremlin launched a lightning invasion of little green men, who wore no insignia and who Moscow initially denied were Russian special forces. Later, they disabled the TV stations, threatened Ukrainian military installations on the peninsula and co-opted much of the Ukrainian law enforcement, judicial and other infrastructure.

This will be one of many thorny issues for Ukraine should it ever win back control of Crimea. Who should face punishment for working with Russian authorities, and who should receive an amnesty?

Officials say that after so many years of occupation, that decision will be different from those that will have to be made in the territories occupied by Russia since the February invasion.

Crimea is a different case. Our laws will not have a retrospective aspect, said Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraines deputy prime minister. People believed Russia was there for ever, and you could not function there without interacting with Russian authorities.

There are other tricky questions. Between 500,000 and 800,000 Russians have moved to the peninsula since 2014, according to Ukrainian estimates. Technically, they have all entered the territory of Ukraine illegally. Then there is the question of property transactions since 2014. Should Ukrainian law recognise any of them?

Tasheva said the important thing was to ensure that these issues were dealt with ahead of time, not on the hop. Back in 2014, Russia was ready to implement its rule in Crimea. We need to be ready too, she said.

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It feels inevitable: Ukraine starts to believe it can win back Crimea - The Guardian